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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 318

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KamikazePotato | Posted 7/19/2006 7:19:15 PM | message detail
strange how people come up with things like rSFF anytime a result doesn't go the way they'd expect.

Samus is still stronger than Mario!

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trannyscience | Posted 7/19/2006 7:20:02 PM | message detail
there's one kid on the Pokemon boards who's posting the exact same topic on every single Pokemon board trying to rally votes. a bunch of people are like "well I voted Metroid cause Samus rules in SSBM" and the kid goes nuts. it's great.
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yzzyx
Draco1214 | Posted 7/19/2006 7:20:05 PM | message detail
I'm probably the only person who thinks the Chrono series would've bombed here.
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Janus5000 | Posted 7/19/2006 7:21:27 PM | message detail
Remember the Halo boards during CV/Halo? It's not always like that.

The Plan dislikes predictable trends.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2006 7:22:20 PM | message detail
strange how people come up with things like rSFF anytime a result doesn't go the way they'd expect.

The idea's always been there, it's just that it's very hard to find actual proof of it -- as opposed to SFF and Link/Ganondorf staring you dead in the face.

If rSFF ever conclusively happens, it'll probably materialize in Metroid taking the hit. Samus' struggles against Nintendo are becoming the stuff of legend now.
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Read_Only_Thx | Posted 7/19/2006 7:25:16 PM | message detail
there's one kid on the Pokemon boards who's posting the exact same topic on every single Pokemon board trying to rally votes. a bunch of people are like "well I voted Metroid cause Samus rules in SSBM" and the kid goes nuts. it's great.

Do you have links? I'm always up for laughing at idiots.
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trannyscience | Posted 7/19/2006 7:32:10 PM | message detail
I don't feel like getting modded for inciting a board invasion, but the Pokemon Diamond board is a good place to start.
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yzzyx
Read_Only_Thx | Posted 7/19/2006 7:34:52 PM | message detail
Can you at least give me a name, then?
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/19/2006 7:39:20 PM | message detail

Samus is still stronger than Mario!


Your witty sarcasm isn't so witty when it's true!

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trannyscience | Posted 7/19/2006 7:40:03 PM | message detail
you can do a search for Metroid. there's a couple.
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yzzyx
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2006 7:57:21 PM | message detail
Now it's time for, "Karma Hunter attempts to figure out why Samus is so damn strong!"

According to the SC2k5 Adjusted X-Stats, using some fuzzy math I won't pretend to understand Mario is roughly equal to Samus.

The Super Mario Bros. series would absolutely obliterate Metroid, however. Mario is undisputably Top 3. Metroid may not be top twenty.

As for individual games, SMB3, SMB, and probably SMB2 beat the original Metroid.

There's Metroid II for the Game Boy, and I'd probably give SML2 or something like that over it. I usually forget there even *was* a Metroid 2.

SMW probably wastes Super Metroid. SM fanatics will probably disagree, but oh well.

Metroid doesn't even have anything in the 64 era to compete with SM64.

Super Mario Sunshine is probably the only match I could see going Metroid Prime's way...maybe. Even if MP loses out to SMS, MP and MP2 probably give Samus a bit of a GC edge. Or maybe she gets blown out every time.

Then there's Fusion and Zero Mission for the GBA, along with Hunters for the DS...against a bunch of remakes. Not exactly a conclusive matchup, though it's safe to say the original versions of those games are worth far more than those games.

Samus herself has SSB and SSBM to put her above her games, but that's something that Mario has as well (though to be fair, everyone knows Mario while the first time many had heard of Samus was probably SSB). Still, for being so much weaker in every other aspect, the only thing she has going for her is character design.

For that being worth SO much is asking a lot of me.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2006 7:58:34 PM | message detail
Result: lol I'm obsessed. Although I have come to the conclusion that if Mario had a cooler design he probably beats Sephiroth, or something.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
trannyscience | Posted 7/19/2006 8:02:33 PM | message detail
SMW probably wastes Super Metroid. SM fanatics will probably disagree, but oh well.

no, SMW kills SM, similar to how LTTP did.

my opinion of Samus is that while she's well-known, her games aren't universally played and loved. that makes her character one that's easy to like; same as Kirby. exposure in random games like SSB/M helps a lot in that regard.

I also think that Samus/Metroid appeals to a lot of people (hello) that aren't really "Nintendo fans". in that sense, she draws more than just the Nintendo vote, making her/it strong against non-Nintendo opponents. once you put her against something made by Nintendo though, the fanbase abandons her/it.

the reason Metroid was able to destroy Kirby is because they share the same traits - likable character, well-known but not universally played. Metroid is certainly played and liked more than Kirby though, so Metroid lays the smack down there.

yay, overanalysis!
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yzzyx
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/19/2006 8:05:06 PM | message detail
I also think that Samus/Metroid appeals to a lot of people (hello) that aren't really "Nintendo fans". in that sense, she draws more than just the Nintendo vote, making her/it strong against non-Nintendo opponents. once you put her against something made by Nintendo though, the fanbase abandons her/it.

o.0

What?
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trannyscience | Posted 7/19/2006 8:05:08 PM | message detail
also, I don't think Metroid is getting "exposed" here. Metroid is definitely a top 20 series, and likely a top 10 one here. I just think Pokemon is stronger than people realize.
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yzzyx
trannyscience | Posted 7/19/2006 8:05:38 PM | message detail
What?

who?
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yzzyx
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/19/2006 8:06:40 PM | message detail
Your logic would make Metroid resistant to SFF. Mario vs Samus shows that that's unlikely.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
MnMZero | Posted 7/19/2006 8:07:08 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bse/bse19.jpg

That has got to be the worst match picture ever.

Oh, and yay for apartment hunting. Did I miss anything besides another horrible prediction?
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*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Mega Man X in Best. Series. Ever. Contest
trannyscience | Posted 7/19/2006 8:09:14 PM | message detail
no, because this site is "NintendoFAQs". Samus draws the majority of her strength from the Nintendo fanbase.

besides, compared to how her games perform, I'd say she did pretty well on Mario!
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yzzyx
creativename | Posted 7/19/2006 8:12:01 PM | message detail
That picture truly does suck. It makes no sense to use 8/16 bit sprites for series that most in the US know from modern incarnations.

These aren't Zelda/Mario/Sonic etc, where sprites make a lot of sense.

CJayC really seems to be obsessed with Snake sprites though. Maybe he grew up playing Metal Gear?
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/19/2006 8:13:07 PM | message detail
I don't know... I think Ceej should just abandon "Sprite Round" entirely, I have no problem with him using sprites, but for certain things it just doesn't work.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2006 8:13:09 PM | message detail
Top Ten is asking a HECK of a lot from me. Let's look at a few series that I would *definitely* take over Metroid.

FF
Zelda
Mario
MG
SSB
Mega Man
Sonic
Mario Kart
Chrono
Resident Evil

Ten that I didn't even have to think about. To keep going...

Castlevania
Kingdom Hearts
Halo
Warcraft
GTA
Mega Man X
Street Fighter
Diablo (?)
Soul Calibur (?)
Devil May Cry (?)

Eh, so it probably slides in at the bottom of the top 20. But I would take or consider taking every one of those series to beat Pokemon, and if you do that you have to give it a shot at Metroid.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
trannyscience | Posted 7/19/2006 8:13:10 PM | message detail
I did! there's a reason I never bothered playing MGS!
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yzzyx
trannyscience | Posted 7/19/2006 8:14:04 PM | message detail
you'd take Diablo and Devil May Cry over Metroid?

oh ho ho, we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one!
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yzzyx
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2006 8:15:40 PM | message detail
The question mark is made to signify a maybe!

Besides, I don't think there would have been any question over those series beating Pokemon among most when this started. Pokemon is surprising here, but I'm not going to buy that it's *all* the Pokester's doing. Metroid is bombing, too.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/19/2006 8:16:22 PM | message detail
I like your list until you get to Diablo.

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longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/19/2006 8:16:41 PM | message detail
*Can't wait for Street Fighter/Resident Evil*
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creativename | Posted 7/19/2006 8:17:09 PM | message detail
Pokemon could actually probably beat a number of those series. Another reason why this match is so shocking.

It's interesting to think about how before the contest, if it were put up against one of those series, it would've been a big underdog. But now some of those matches would be quite debatable.

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Draco1214 | Posted 7/19/2006 8:18:38 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Draco1214 | Posted 7/19/2006 8:19:05 PM | message detail
From: longbladeofhiko | Posted: 7/19/2006 8:16:41 PM | Message Detail
*Can't wait for Street Fighter/Resident Evil*


Yes, for Street Fighter to pull off the upset!

I'm also looking forward to Sonic/SSB as well. Go Sonic!
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trannyscience | Posted 7/19/2006 8:20:17 PM | message detail
well...

Chrono
Castlevania
Halo
Warcraft
GTA
Mega Man X
Street Fighter
Diablo (?)
Soul Calibur (?)
Devil May Cry (?)

I'd take Metroid over these. I wouldn't have taken it over Chrono before the contest, but the idea of diversity and longevity seems to hurt Chrono more than anyone.

Castlevania is basically the same as Metroid, only Metroid has a successful venture into 3d. I guess you could argue that SOTN > SM or MP, but I would never argue that it's bigger than both combined. Metroid's GBA games are probably bigger than Castlevania's and Metroid trumps it on the SNES as well.

Halo.. again, diversity. if I'd take Metroid over CV, I'd obviously take it over Halo. GTA and WC are tricky because I have no idea how strong they are. MMX/SF are just gut picks because I don't think they're all that strong, and the question marks are a no way in hell to me.

anyway, I've gotta go home so I won't be responding for a bit.

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yzzyx
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/19/2006 8:20:26 PM | message detail
It's interesting to think about the fact that this contest could have very easily been one of our hardest if the bracket wasn't so poorly made.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
creativename | Posted 7/19/2006 8:20:38 PM | message detail
Heh. I just had a thought: could you even imagine if Pokemon was able to beat Street Fighter? It would put the SMRPG chaos to shame.

"It's an RPG! It's Mario!" --> "It's an RPG! It's Pikachu! ...no, wait..."
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trannyscience | Posted 7/19/2006 8:21:07 PM | message detail
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=585007&topic=29076521

ha-ha! preempted!
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yzzyx
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2006 8:22:28 PM | message detail
I just wanted an even 20, why must you belittle me? ;_;

I also think that Samus/Metroid appeals to a lot of people (hello) that aren't really "Nintendo fans". in that sense, she draws more than just the Nintendo vote, making her/it strong against non-Nintendo opponents. once you put her against something made by Nintendo though, the fanbase abandons her/it.

This is EXACTLY why rSFF is considered a possibility with her. Let's say that Samus gets 70% of her support from the Nintendo fanbase and 30% of her support from outside the fanbase. Let's say Mario gets 95% of his support from the Ninty fanbase and 5% from outside of it. Even if Samus is slightly stronger than Mario indirectly, if the Nintendo fanbase dramatically favors Mario in that match Mario wins despite being indirectly weaker -- hence, rSFF.

The only thing is, there aren't many strong stand-alone Nintendo characters indirectly weaker than Samus -- Kirby is one, but he suffers from the same fate. Mario was considered to be one, but his destruction of her laid that to rest -- and yet, the stats have Samus being nearly his equal. If Samus is a tad stronger than Mario, does she suddenly win that match? IMO, hell no, and that's where rSFF gets credibility with me.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
creativename | Posted 7/19/2006 8:22:46 PM | message detail
I wouldn't have taken it over Chrono before the contest, but the idea of diversity and longevity seems to hurt Chrono more than anyone.

I think this Chrono weakness bandwagon is getting extreme, based on specious reasoning.
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/19/2006 8:22:54 PM | message detail
Heh. I just had a thought: could you even imagine if Pokemon was able to beat Street Fighter? It would put the SMRPG chaos to shame.

I would not enjoy seeing that go down. >>

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/19/2006 8:23:46 PM | message detail
I dunno if SF can pull an upset or not Draco. I think the match could go either way really.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
JUST LIKE UR MOM LOLO AND URS TO LALA-Tombolo
MnMZero | Posted 7/19/2006 8:24:44 PM | message detail
This is EXACTLY why rSFF is considered a possibility with her. Let's say that Samus gets 70% of her support from the Nintendo fanbase and 30% of her support from outside the fanbase. Let's say Mario gets 95% of his support from the Ninty fanbase and 5% from outside of it. Even if Samus is slightly stronger than Mario indirectly, if the Nintendo fanbase dramatically favors Mario in that match Mario wins despite being indirectly weaker -- hence, rSFF.

Somebody actually did a neat little ASCII chart showing that in their argument for Mario > Samus in SC2k5. I forgot who it was though. It was a pretty solid argument actually...
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*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Mega Man X in Best. Series. Ever. Contest
Draco1214 | Posted 7/19/2006 8:24:57 PM | message detail
I think it's a toss-up, too. I'm just being optimistic. <_<
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/19/2006 8:25:47 PM | message detail
I think it's going to be Resident Evil winning by enough to never ever worry about losing the lead!!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
trannyscience | Posted 7/19/2006 8:27:51 PM | message detail
I think this Chrono weakness bandwagon is getting extreme, based on specious reasoning.

well, it's just taking past results into consideration. I love both Chrono games, but when every two-game series shows weakness, it's tough not to group it into the field. the only one that's managed to impress so far is SSB.

I think it's going to be Resident Evil winning by enough to never ever worry about losing the lead!!

it isn't often, but I agree with HM here!

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yzzyx
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2006 8:28:53 PM | message detail
And the only reason SSB was considered impressive is because if you had been on the board that day you'd have had the impression DQ was the favorite!
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/19/2006 8:31:47 PM | message detail
I think this Chrono weakness bandwagon is getting extreme, based on specious reasoning

Not necessarily "weakness," but it's obvious that quite a few people are treating this as a Series Contest. Chrono as a series really isn't that great...
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Master Moltar | Posted 7/19/2006 8:33:42 PM | message detail
Snake Division: Round 2 - Match 19 – (1)Metal Gear vs. (4)Fire Emblem

Moltar’s Analysis

Metal Gear
Round 1 – 69.9% vs. Soul Calibur (30.1%)

Soul Calibur isn’t an easy opponent, as it showed MG last round.

Fire Emblem
Round 1 – 57.05% vs. Silent Hill (42.95%)

In the Battle of the Fodder, FE gets the victory over Silent Hill.

Aren’t the opponents supposed to get tougher as the tourney progresses? That’s definitely not the case here. Neither FE or SH should have made it to Round 2 because of how weak they are, but I guess it doesn’t hurt to make Metal Gear look good. Facing the strongest 8 seed in Round 1 and failing to break 70% isn’t the best start.

Still, it’s not like Metal Gear is in any threat to lose its divison. Fire Emblem is undoubtedly weaker than Soul Calibur. The only two things it has going for it are that it’s a Nintendo RPG, and Marth and Roy are in SSB:M, which was enough to get it over Silent Hill. Metal Gear is no Silent Hill though, and it has just about everything else going for it. Expect a thrashing, folks.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Metal Gear will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Metal Gear: 77% - Fire Emblem: 23%



Ulti’s Analysis

Fiore Emblem had its little run of glory, but a 55-45 win over something as ****ing cult as Silent Hill spells really bad news against something as established as MGS. NintendoFAQs isn't going to stop FE from getting killed here.

Prediction: MGS with 71.23%



Soul’s Analysis

Metal Gear defeated Soul Calibur with 69.89%
Fire Emblem defeated Silent Hill with 57.05%


Another match, another easy win for Snake and co. Fire Emblem may have Nintendo backing, but Snake is noble nine for a reason. Yes, characters =/= series, but come on now. Fire Emblem had a hard time defeating Silent Hill. Metal Gear got just a little under 70% against a much tougher opponent in Soul Calibur.

You know, it's been a while since I actually wrote up a decent analysis. If you're looking for one here, keep on going. I'm sure HM will have more then enough written for the entire crew.

My prediction: Metal Gear wins with 77.77% of the vote.



Yoblazer’s Analysis

Everyone ready for my first and only one paragraph analysis? Awesome, because writing an intricate masterpiece for this match would accomplish nothing more than wasting my time. While Fire Emblem may be Nintendo, it is (by far) the newest and weakest of all Nintendo series. It got here not by virtue its own strength, but by being lucky enough to draw a first round opponent that has an extremely small fanbase on GameFAQs. I feel that its future in the US is a bright one, as it's the only true non-spinoff RPG series that Nintendo has to offer. Even still, it's only a baby right now, and after Metal Gear's 70/30 beatdown of Soul Calibur, we should all be expecting something ugly.

Metal Gear
+ Three very popular games in the last eight years
+ Tons of credibility and some old school influence
+ Spans a surprising amount of consoles and eras
- Nothing for the rest of the division, really

Fire Emblem
+ Made it this far
+ Has a bright future
+ Nintendo
- It's going to get killed

My prediction: Metal Gear def. Fire Emblem (76-24)



Mnm’s Analysis

Battle Music: Duel (MGS)

This is probably the most boring match of the second round. I don't mind at all that I won't be around for most of the match. I don't even care to see how strong Fire Emblem is. Bottom line is that it's going to get crushed in this matchup.

Bracket: Metal Gear

Vote: Metal Gear

Prediction: Metal Gear with 77.74%
Master Moltar | Posted 7/19/2006 8:33:58 PM | message detail
Leon’s Analysis

It’s hard to believe that this division has essentially been decided after one round when it was considered to be debatable before the contest began. Metal Gear exceeded nearly everyone’s expectations by getting nearly 70% on Soul Calibur (it’s a shame I had to miss that one because I would’ve gone crazy with glee, being the Metal Gear mark that I am). Then Castlevania went 55/45 on Halo (and a past Favorite Konami Series poll shows that Metal Gear is the company’s favorite son by a good margin), and Kingdom Hearts failed to exceed Metal Gear’s performance by 5% on Harvest Moon. Basically, the division was handed to it on a silver platter and it didn’t even have to do very much to get it. We knew that Metal Gear had lucked out in its divisional draw by not getting some of the strongest competitors out there, but it turns out to be an even better draw for it than we thought as we’ve seen newer, less established series struggle so far.

And Metal Gear will actually have less competition from its second round opponent than it did against Soul Calibur. While Fire Emblem won its first match with little trouble, keep in mind that it was against Silent Hill. Harkening back to the Favorite Konami Series poll I mentioned earlier, Silent Hill got less than 7% in it, and it was beaten out by Yu-Gi-Oh. In other words, you’re looking at a really weak franchise, and Fire Emblem wasn’t exactly dominant there (by non-Ulti standards, at any rate). However, it saddens me to see that there are actually people around the board who believe it has a chance to beat Metal Gear because “It’s Nintendo.” That mentality instantly makes any debate frustrating because it doesn’t matter how logical your argument is. It’s automatically debunked by such a BRILLIANT response. Anyway, that’s a rant for another time.

Despite Fire Emblem being Nintendo, it’s far from a powerhouse. Even though it’s actually a long-running series, it’s still new to the American shores. As we’ve seen in this contest so far, that’s not a comforting sign. Also keep in mind that this site isn’t a big fan of RPGs that don’t start with “Final” and end with “Fantasy” (or “Tactics,” but you get the idea). Throw it up against one of the strongest non-Nintendo, non-Square franchises, and you have all the signs of a massacre. But just how bad could this one be…? Let’s look into that, shall we?

In the Games Contest, Metal Gear Solid broke 70% on the original Resident Evil. Obviously, it didn’t beat the most popular entry of the series, but when you consider the fact that Resident Evil has slaughtered Silent Hill in a couple of “Favorite Survivor-Horror Game” polls (where “I don’t play those kind of games” came in second, by the way), this points to a big blowout. Also, Resident Evil and Fire Emblem were nearly equal in the stats (with a small edge to RE), but when you realize that the former is almost certainly underrated (though I admit that it’s possible that FE is as well, but I don’t think it’ll be to the same extent since I believe there’s a possibility that MGS overperformed on RE a bit, too), that widens the gap a bit.

And while Soul Calibur certainly bombed in the first round against Metal Gear, I’d still feel comfortable taking it to beat Fire Emblem. I don’t think it’d be THAT close either. I’m going to be waiting to see how high Metal Gear can go, and I’ll love every minute of it.

Leonhart’s Prediction: Metal Gear with 75.44%
Master Moltar | Posted 7/19/2006 8:34:42 PM | message detail
HM’s Analysis

Metal Gear
Previous Matches :
Metal Gear – 69.89% -- 77,349
Soul Calibur – 30.11% -- 33,321

Fire Emblem
Previous Matches:
Fire Emblem – 57.05% -- 57,798
Silent Hill – 42.95% -- 43,512

This will be one of the more enjoyable matches for me simply due to Metal Gear getting another shot at blowing out an opponent – something we do not get to see that often! I think this has potential to get that awesome title of “Blowout of the Round” because of both Fire Emblem’s weakness and Metal Gear’s strength – it’ll be the fourth strongest series in the extrapolated stats, as I called for back during the beginning of this contest!!

Last round, we saw Metal Gear exceed expectations by thrashing Soul Calibur with an impressive 70%. Some might say that it was due to Soul Calibur being overrated in the stats by StarCraft, but this contest does take into consideration all three games in the series. Of course, Metal Gear is just far too strong for any of that to matter, as evident by the blowout. I think that match dealt more with Metal Gear’s strength over Soul Calibur’s weakness.

Fire Emblem managed to pull a nice 57% against a somewhat debated match against Silent Hill. Its performance was nothing particularly impressive nor did it really exceed expectations by very much. When it comes down to two series that GameFAQs really does not care much for, the Nintendo series is likely to be the one to come out on top. However, even with Fire Emblem’s win over Silent Hill, there is no chance of it doing anything noteworthy against Metal Gear.

This match seems to be getting some unnecessary attention from random people on Board 8. It seems like every day there is another topic asking about the winner of Metal Gear and Fire Emblem, despite its rather ordinary performance against Silent Hill. The best thing I can possibly come up with as to why this is even remotely the case is because Fire Emblem is associated with Nintendo and clearly it means it stands a chance – I laugh.

Metal Gear is undoubtedly going to be one of the strongest series in this contest – I think it’ll even put a good showing against Zelda. Even though it is against Fire Emblem, I think this match will help to show what kind of strength Metal Gear actually has backing it. Some may look at Soul Calibur’s blowout as it being overrated and this match as Fire Emblem being weak, but I think both are showing more for Metal Gear than anything else. I have faith this’ll definitely be a few percentage points above a tripling.

Ultimately, Fire Emblem is just another stepping stone to a division victory for Metal Gear. This one is going to be a blowout, folks, so be expecting some huge numbers to be displayed by Solid Snake’s franchise. I’ll go ahead and make a bold prediction in this very analysis that says Metal Gear not only wins this division but also never falls below 58% in the final percentage!!

Aitch Emm’s Bracket : Metal Gear
Aitch Emm’s Prediction : Metal Gear – 78% ; Fire Emblem – 22%
Aitch Emm’s Vote : Metal Gear



HaRRich’s Analysis

Predicted winner: Metal Gear
Earlier this contest:
---MG - 69.89% against Soul Calibur
---FE - 57.05% against Silent Hill
Top 100 List comparison:
---MGS - #8, MGS3 - #21, MGS2 - #41
---FE (GBA) - #54
Best Game Ever x-stat comparison:
---MGS2 - 32.52%, MGS - 28.7% (may have been SFF'd by FF7), MG - 14.13%
---FE - 16.59% (was behind FFTA/FFX)

Metal Gear wins due to this...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2430
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1453
#8 + #21 + #41 > #54

...but I'm going to pretty much repost (then edit) something I said during FE/SH to explain why I think MG will "only" win by so much. Ahem:
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/19/2006 8:34:58 PM | message detail
lol wats goin on in dis topix

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creativename | Posted 7/19/2006 8:35:14 PM | message detail
Chrono as a series really isn't that great...

Specious. Reasoning.
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Master Moltar | Posted 7/19/2006 8:35:25 PM | message detail
"Fire Emblem might actually be able to match Soul Calibur's performance and/or compete with SC. I've heard a fair share of talk that it did as well as it did against Kingdom Hearts because of SC2, and I think it goes without saying that SC and SC2 are the two biggest parts of the SC series -- SC3 is practically forgotten in terms of popularity with them. So, if that's the case, that would almost be like the SC series losing to KH...and KH was behind Starcraft, so -- now that we've seen SC be beaten down by MG, Castlevania skeet-skeet on Halo, and KH failing to triple Harvest Moon -- we now have more reason to believe some of the games behind Starcraft became over-rated. How over-rated, that's your call, but the unadjusted stats have it at 34.28%, and that's not even first taking away the 600 cheat-votes CJayC confirmed in Starcraft/SSBM...

...now, from there, let's talk about FE. As we've all mentioned before, FE had been out a grand total of four months when its match against FFTA started, which isn't the best chance in the world for a game to get. Furthermore, FFTA then faced FFX in the next round, so there was likely SFF in that match. So, you look at the stats...and FE has 16.59%, so it has to go up some -- again, your call on how much. There's been at least one more American release of FE since then on the handhelds, and I know FE:PoR got (a distant) runner-up in the Gamecube GotY this past year (behind RE4, obviously)...

...from there, you may throw in the Nintendo boost, that it'd be an (S)RPG against a fighter and that it'd be Nintendo VS Namco (which has done work before for Nintendo, if you're aching to push for SFF in some fashion) if we're talking about FE/SC, there being two more diverse fanbases in MG/FE than MG/SC if we're talking MG/FE...whatever. FE/SH still managed to break 100,000 votes though, so perhaps neither series are as obscure as we once thought, and it may also be worth mentioning that SC got #51 while FE got #54 on the Top 100 List....."

I'm not taking that risk of FE matching SC, but using that logic -- assuming there are no faults in it (there very well could be though) -- it would make it look like FE can avoid the tripling and maybe come close to SC's performance. I'll pick with that risk in mind.

Metal Gear wins with 71.12%



Lopen’s Analysis

Okay, I had Metal Gear vs. Silent Hill here. But, make no mistake about it, the reason I thought Silent Hill would win is because they were both so weak that raw exposure advantage would win SH the match. Well you know what? I still think that. Not all of that, but the gist of it… that neither one could draw 60% on hunk of stale bread… trilogy. (It's a series, after all!)

The only thing that has me doubting Metal Gear's blowout potential here is the loyalty of the Fire Emblem fans. I've seen their rabidness on Board 8. But I'm not sure if that's generally the case. At best for Fire Emblem, we've got a really weak version of Halo… that is a series that can resist blowouts just because its fans will vote it over almost anything.

But… but… I've seen the same rabidness on B8 for things like Shadow Hearts and Suikoden. Nevermind, I'll go with my gut, here.

Lopen's Prediction: Metal Gear with 87.58%



Comments: Fire Emblem gon' get owned. I love Lopen's pick though, error or not.