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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 318

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longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/19/2006 11:10:27 AM | message detail
You still count the games in the series, whether they have less fans or not.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
JUST LIKE UR MOM LOLO AND URS TO LALA-Tombolo
The Real Truth | Posted 7/19/2006 11:10:59 AM | message detail
True story.
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Best Series Ever 17/18, Round 2 picks: Zelda, Metroid, MG, CV, SMB, SSB, FF, RE
Ed Bellis | Posted 7/19/2006 11:12:02 AM | message detail
...I'm not saying that less popular games shouldn't be considered part of the series. I'm saying that in terms of a series' popularity, there are some games that should be given more weight than others. Saying "Star Ocean is essentially a two-game series in this contest" doesn't mean that S01 and Blue Sphere aren't good games or aren't part of the main series or anything, it just means that the series' strength is largely unaffected by those two games.
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This was Ed Bellis. Summer 2005 Fanfiction Project:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=28403845
longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/19/2006 11:22:13 AM | message detail
Ahh, alright then, I can understand that.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
JUST LIKE UR MOM LOLO AND URS TO LALA-Tombolo
TRE Public Account | Posted 7/19/2006 11:33:11 AM | message detail
Huge? Kirby has maybe ONE game with any strength. He doesn't have much of an advantage at all.

That's my point. Star Ocean 2/3(whichever is stronger) might be able to take on Kirby games, but as a series Kirby would win easily.

Except that there are actually 4 games.

The first two games never got a NA release so very few people haved played them. There are some people who would vote for Star Ocean because of them (like me if Star Ocean was up against something else), but it's too few to make a significant difference.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
H__RR____H | Posted 7/19/2006 11:42:27 AM | message detail
I'd take Kirby over SO without thinkin', but I'm not gonna guess on percentages.....
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
_SmurfX_ | Posted 7/19/2006 11:47:46 AM | message detail
Damn, Pokemon is at best going level. Metroid will take this, and it really doesn't deserve it.

Zelda with 80% anyone?
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Germany's Road to victory! Germany 3-1 Portugal
Next up: Ireland (Euro Qualifiers)
shadow8021 | Posted 7/19/2006 11:49:47 AM | message detail
I'd say Zelda with 75%, max. I doubt MMX would beat Metroid.
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Series Contest Score: 16/18
Today's Pick: Metroid
TRE Public Account | Posted 7/19/2006 12:07:37 PM | message detail
It's an SFF match. Metroid could do a lot worse than MMX but still be able to win a direct match between the two.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/19/2006 12:08:52 PM | message detail
From _SmurfX_ Posted 7/19/2006 2:47:46 PM #207
Damn, Pokemon is at best going level. Metroid will take this, and it really doesn't deserve it.

....didn't you say like 2 weeks ago that Metroid deserves to win this contest more than anything else? >_>

Anyway, great performance by Pokémon. Samus once again bombs against Nintendo, and I fear for what LOZ will do to her. 85% wouldn't surprise me.

~*ST*~
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*TRUE RKO King of Board 8*
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), WC3: Frozen Throne
charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2006 12:17:05 PM | message detail
Two updates in a row won by Pokemon.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2006 12:20:19 PM | message detail
I've just noticed we have a 2nd PotD.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Slowflake | Posted 7/19/2006 12:20:19 PM | message detail
Not going under 80% before the Final 4 would be an even more dominant display than what Sephiroth did in the villain contest. Hilariously enough, Sephiroth at least was the obvious champion, and yet Zelda is doomed to a runner-up role here.
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
Tai | Posted 7/19/2006 12:20:58 PM | message detail
Damn, Pokemon is at best going level. Metroid will take this, and it really doesn't deserve it.

Zelda with 80% anyone?


Pokemon deserves to beat Metroid?

Phail.
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Draco1214 | Posted 7/19/2006 12:21:45 PM | message detail
Yeah, but Sephiroth didn't SFF anything, except for (arguably) Liquid.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/19/2006 12:23:13 PM | message detail
85% wouldn't surprise me.

Oh lawd, is dat sum overestimations?

I'm guessing 75% on that one.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
JUST LIKE UR MOM LOLO AND URS TO LALA-Tombolo
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/19/2006 12:24:42 PM | message detail
From Slowflake Posted 7/19/2006 3:20:19 PM #213
Zelda is doomed to a runner-up role here.

Why?

Not saying Zelda has a good chance, but it's still a chance nonetheless.

~*ST*~
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*TRUE RKO King of Board 8*
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), WC3: Frozen Throne
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/19/2006 12:39:20 PM | message detail
I agree with Ulti. LoZ does have a chance, just a much much smaller one since we saw FF's performance agains Diablo.

Then again, how popular is the original Diablo against Diablo 2? I mean, I don't know much about the fanbase, but if I'm right it could have just been Diablo 2 vs. The entire Final Fantasy series. Diablo wasn't in the match pic, either...
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Nominate XIII for the '06 Character Contest! >.>;
Janus5000 | Posted 7/19/2006 12:41:02 PM | message detail
I agree with Ulti.

Drone.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/19/2006 12:41:23 PM | message detail
Drone.

Whiner.

~*ST*~
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*TRUE RKO King of Board 8*
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), WC3: Frozen Throne
charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2006 12:51:24 PM | message detail
LoZ has as much of chance at winning as Ganondorf/Bowser (though it might do better than them).
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/19/2006 1:06:05 PM | message detail
Just a question out of curiosity, does anyone think it would be cool if there was a best console ever contest next year? I think there would be more then enough consoles to make it interesting.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/19/2006 1:07:28 PM | message detail
LoZ has as much of chance at winning as Ganondorf/Bowser

We already knew the general strength of sephiroth, ganon and bowser from previous character contests. Bad example.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
Janus5000 | Posted 7/19/2006 1:08:09 PM | message detail
Whiner.

Peach-head.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/19/2006 1:14:02 PM | message detail
Oh snap, son!

Are you just going to stand there and take that ulti?
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/19/2006 1:30:18 PM | message detail
Sure, given that there are few compliments better than peach-head.

*huggles Peach's turnips*

~*ST*~
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*TRUE RKO King of Board 8*
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), WC3: Frozen Throne
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/19/2006 1:59:33 PM | message detail
Star Ocean 2/3(whichever is stronger) might be able to take on Kirby games, but as a series Kirby would win easily.

I would really beg to differ. What are the games other than Super Star going to add to Kirby? Not very much at all. If you're saying that either Star Ocean could take on Kirby's games, why can't both of them take on one game and a bunch of other games that won't add up to much at all?

Kirby might win, but it would be far from easy.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/19/2006 2:03:13 PM | message detail
An SFF match on pace for 125,000 votes? Interesting, that.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
H__RR____H | Posted 7/19/2006 2:18:06 PM | message detail
A) One SO game might be stronger than KSS, not both.
B) Kirby's got quite afew more games, whether they're weaker than KSS or not.
C) Kirby's been on more systems and has been around longer.
D) Kirby has had the more recent release.
E) Kirby may have been SFF'd, and we don't know by how much.*
F) Nintendo.



*This contest is the most prone for SFF yet. The overlap is HUGE in some of the matches, whether they're by different companies or not, moreso than the different games or characters. In fact, I believe the x-stats for this contest will ultimately be more unreliable than the Villain Contest's x-stats. Yes, I'll use them, but one you go deeper in the chain of the x-stats for this contest, I imagine we could see whole new ballgames than what the stats predict. If we assume that Halo is the Ultimate Loser this contest (though I think it'll be HM) and it got to face some other series that was caught up in a row of matches like that too -- let's say Devil May Cry -- I will be very skeptical about what the stats say for the match. It may pick the right winner, and I may not be giving it enough credit since other x-stats have done us well before, but the overlap is so big that I could hardly bring myself to fully trust it being too close to what the numbers say.

Just to go back to E though, I'm just saying that there was likely more overlap in Metroid/Kirby than Poke/SO...and I would think that there would be more Metroid fans that like Kirby than Pokemon fans that like SO.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2006 2:18:40 PM | message detail
Match XIX: (1) Metal Gear vs. (4) Fire Emblem

Past Matches

Metal Gear
Defeated Soul Calibur, 69.89% - 30.11%

Fire Emblem
Defeated Silent Hill, 57.05% - 42.95%

Analysis:

Metal Gear defeated Soul Calibur by a lot more than what many people thought and became the favorite to take the division. Fire Emblem didn’t have any trouble defeating Silent Hill either, but compare to all of the series that have made it to round 2 it is the most out of place series.

Fire Emblem doesn’t deserve to be in the second round, especially with series like Halo, Grand Theft Auto and Mario Kart losing in the first round. Funny thing is that Fire Emblem will probably be beaten worse than Soul Calibur despite being in the second round. MGS2 would have been expected to get 74.48% against Fire Emblem, though Fire Emblem was probably behind SFF from FFX/FFTA. Even if FFX=FFTA MGS2 would still break 62%, that doesn’t look good for the series that will get most of its strength from that game. I’m probably looking too much into this, I’m just showing that Fire Emblem will be crushed, but then again most people already know that.

Yes Fire Emblem will get most of its strength from Fire Emblem (7). The first 6 games were only released in Japan while The Sacred Stones and Path of Radiance were released during times where all the talk was on the DS and not GBA/GC. I’m not saying they won’t help the series; it’s that Fire Emblem (7) will have the majority of the power.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Metal Gear over Fire Emblem

charmander6000’s Prediction: Metal Gear wins, 77.78% - 22.22%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
shadow8021 | Posted 7/19/2006 2:18:56 PM | message detail
Imagine if someone said before the contest that Pokemon vs. Metroid would end up being closer than Castlevania vs. Halo or Mega Man vs. Mario Kart!
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Series Contest Score: 16/18
Today's Pick: Metroid
H__RR____H | Posted 7/19/2006 2:22:51 PM | message detail
Or, hey, GTA/Warcraft.

Yeah...I totally would have been calling people crazy if they told me those two matches would have been closer than CV/Halo or MM/MK.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/19/2006 2:24:30 PM | message detail
It'd be more surprising for the people here if CV beat KH with 55%, not the other way around. In fact, people here would be shocked and up in arms if CV managed to outperform Halo on it (and I would never stop laughing).

Preach it!

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/19/2006 2:25:56 PM | message detail
Also, nothing would have been as hilarious as Pokemon actually winning this match. Plus I really don't feel like seeing a perfect bracket in one of these spin-off dealies.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
rpgapzx | Posted 7/19/2006 2:32:33 PM | message detail
Mainscreen turn on. We have picture.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bse/bse19.jpg

And yep, it's the terrible picture we've all come to know and love.

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SC2k6: 17/18
Today: Bracket: Metroid Vote: Decline
steve illumina | Posted 7/19/2006 2:32:41 PM | message detail
I hope like 200 perfects fall this night!
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by the Masses.
Score: 20-0. Next Win: METAL GEAR!
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/19/2006 2:35:04 PM | message detail
SOLID **** LIVES!

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Kaxon | Posted 7/19/2006 2:35:54 PM | message detail
For once Snake doesn't have the pic disadvantage in the sprite round - both sides look like utter crap.
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
rpgapzx | Posted 7/19/2006 2:35:58 PM | message detail
SOLID **** LIVES!

Word. If anything, the background makes him SUPER SOLID ****!

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SC2k6: 17/18
Today: Bracket: Metroid Vote: Decline
charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2006 2:37:05 PM | message detail
I don't know which side looks worse.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
rpgapzx | Posted 7/19/2006 2:38:42 PM | message detail
Fire Emblem's characters look better, and it's "Hero" is actually doing something. However, the big bandit guy is on MG's side.

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SC2k6: 17/18
Today: Bracket: Metroid Vote: Decline
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/19/2006 2:39:05 PM | message detail
Fire Emblem's basic enemy looks the best out of all of them.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2006 2:39:24 PM | message detail
I hope like 200 perfects fall this night!

I was expecting 150-100, but looking at the amount that didn't take FF as the winner I really only consider around 180-220 to be perfect.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/19/2006 2:42:05 PM | message detail
I have a feeling that Metroid > Pokemon is going to be a pretty big bracket upset.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/19/2006 2:42:39 PM | message detail
And by pretty big I mean like 40% >_>

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2006 2:43:04 PM | message detail
I'm expecting around 45% to take Metroid.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Ed Bellis | Posted 7/19/2006 2:52:08 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bse/bse19.jpg

XD
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This was Ed Bellis. Summer 2005 Fanfiction Project:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=28403845
heroic tranny | Posted 7/19/2006 2:52:31 PM | message detail
what the hell is that
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xyzzy
heroic tranny | Posted 7/19/2006 2:52:43 PM | message detail
no seriously what is that
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xyzzy
Ed Bellis | Posted 7/19/2006 2:53:12 PM | message detail
Is... is Chun Li in that picture?
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This was Ed Bellis. Summer 2005 Fanfiction Project:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=28403845