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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 316

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jonthomson | Posted 7/17/2006 5:07:07 AM | message detail
I'm also kind of surprised at all the SF > RE talk. when did this bandwagon start?

When steve managed to luckbox his way to a perfect bracket post-GTA/WC.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/17/2006 5:41:59 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/17/2006 5:44:00 AM | message detail
We've had heroes of the series in Round 1 - I want villains in round 2. Diablo not being in his own match pic was a crime, for one thing. In some matches we could have a collaboration of villains (So, for example, Kefka, Sephiroth, and maybe Seifer for FF). It wouldn't be feasible in some matches to have multiple villains (Y halo thar Ganondorf vs. Sigma) but it'd still be cool. Villains/Antagonists are usually the best characters.

Plus, it might be the only chance I get of seeing The Boss in a match pic. >_>;
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transience | Posted 7/17/2006 5:45:25 AM | message detail
oh it's not just in here, it's all over the board. I imagine they're probably not going to be very vocal when RE is pushing 88% here.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
transience | Posted 7/17/2006 5:46:04 AM | message detail
(note: I don't think SF, or any credible series for that matter, would struggle getting 80% on SH. this is about as big as SH's fanbase is.)
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
Who Cares? | Posted 7/17/2006 5:48:04 AM | message detail
I'm also kind of surprised at all the SF > RE talk. when did this bandwagon start? it seems to have picked up some steam overnight.

I dunno if it's so much the bandwagon starting up, but rather people not automatically giving the match to RE because of today and/or yesterday.
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Character Noms: Ken, Chun-Li, Kasumi, Morrigan, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/17/2006 6:11:45 AM | message detail
Oh, and Shadow Hearts = Weakest RPG Entity on the site that has gotten something related to it into the contests (Character, Series, Game, Villain)?
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XIII_rocks | Posted 7/17/2006 6:16:36 AM | message detail
Oh, and presuming Sonic gets past SSB (which I don't think we should do just yet, just hypothetically), what does Mario get on Sonic? I'm hoping for Sonic to get 35%.
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Kaxon | Posted 7/17/2006 6:16:59 AM | message detail
Does anyone have a copy saved of the famous Mario/Snake pic?
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
Zylo the wolf | Posted 7/17/2006 6:21:28 AM | message detail
Didn't Yuri get more on Samus than this?
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 7/17/2006 6:22:52 AM | message detail
It's about the same
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 7/17/2006 6:23:40 AM | message detail
It's like only ~12% of GameFAQs are Shadow Hearts fans, but they're pretty damn big fans >_>
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
transience | Posted 7/17/2006 6:39:11 AM | message detail
whelp, first round is over. rankings after round 1!

16 - Fire Emblem - I think FE is stronger than people realize... but it's still out of its league winning a match when stuff like Mario Kart and GTA are already out.

15 - Pokemon - I want to say it's stronger than this, but then I look at everyone else and say "..yeah, Pokemon would probably get whipped by almost all of these series'." impressive vs. Star Ocean.. but, well, it's Star Ocean.

14 - Street Fighter - it beat down the Elder Scrolls, but there's no way to tell if that's impressive or not since we haven't seen anything like the Elder Scrolls before.

13 - Resident Evil - 88% vs. Shadow Hearts is nice and all, but I think most series in this contest would get an easy 80%. its match vs. Street Fighter will be interesting, especially since it's a classic fighting game series vs. a new series with a huge game.

12 - Mega Man X - yeah, I don't think it's as strong as the original despite that poll. it's not going to matter though since Zelda's going to destroy it tomorrow.

11 - Castlevania - an impressive showing vs. Halo made people reconsider how to gauge a series in this contest. Castlevania's got a zillion games on a zillion consoles and most people seem to like the series.

10 - Kingdom Hearts - I always felt that KH was weak, but I didn't think it was 70% vs. HM weak. KH supporters have to hope HM is stronger than expected.

9 - Warcraft - yeah, it probably shouldn't have beaten GTA because of a good 20-30000 rallied votes. you still have to add that to its natural strength and assume that it's probably going to get that for any match it's in. I anticipate its next match with Mario to see if WC can make it interesting.

8 - Mega Man - impressive showing vs. Mario Kart. SFF? probably not, but possible. either way, it's probably going to get killed by Final Fantasy.

7 - Sonic - Sonic hasn't had a lot of recent success, but it didn't seem to matter as it dropped 70% against DMC.

6 - Super Smash Bros - practically tied with Sonic in my mind, and I lean more and more towards Sonic every day. SSBM is a huge game, but individual huge games haven't been able to stand up to older series with variety.

5 - Metroid - Metroid's got it all - oldschool roots, a huge SNES game and a successful transition into 3d. the only thing it's missing are pure sales numbers of the games above it.

4 - Metal Gear - one round in and I haven't seen anything that convinces me that Metal Gear isn't the much-debated fourth strongest series. an impressive victory against Soul Calibur + the rest of its division looking less than impressive means that it's the heavy favourite to win the most debated division.

3 - Mario - Mario is undoubtedly #3 on this site and nothing else is even close.

2 - Zelda - Zelda's going to triple everything in its path until it sees Metal Gear. it'll have to settle for a mere doubling at worst.

1 - Final Fantasy - most impressive round in my mind. 84 or something percent on Diablo? SMB and Zelda still have a chance here, but FF has to be the heavy favourite.
transience | Posted 7/17/2006 6:39:25 AM | message detail
most anticipated round 2 matches:

8 - Zelda vs. MMX - SFF beatdowns are never fun.

7 - Metal Gear vs. Fire Emblem - it's only a matter of percentage at this point. this match will at least be useful for seeing if MG can keep up its impressive showing from round 1.

6 - Final Fantasy vs. Mega Man - MEGA MAN BEAT DOWN TIDUS THIS IS RSFF HAHAHA okay maybe not

5 - Metroid vs. Pokemon - Metroid is the clear favourite, but Pokemon impressed in its first round match. of course, so did Metroid.

4 - Mario vs. Warcraft - only interesting for the rallying potential. other than that, this is a killing.

3 - Resident Evil vs. Street Fighter - this is probably a close match before RE4 and is now a decisive RE win. there's always the chance that the classic fighting series pulls it out though.

2 - Kingdom Hearts vs. Castlevania - I can't wait for this one. new RPG series vs. classic platforming series. game of the year on GF so far vs. a series that peaked almost ten years ago.

1 - Sonic vs. Smash Bros - a tossup in my mind. I can't wait for this one, but I fear the war that this board is going to wage. no matter who wins, there's going to be gloating and whining from both sides. another old vs. new matchup that should prove to be interesting.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
Slowflake | Posted 7/17/2006 7:01:10 AM | message detail
O_O

I knew Shadow Hearts would lose big, but this is better than what Samus did for God's sake! I wonder how it's going to get on FF - because let's face it, SF is no longer a concern. Sure, SH is horribly fodderific, but it gets harder and harder to get high percentages as you climb up.
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
Tediz247 | Posted 7/17/2006 7:17:23 AM | message detail
From: Kaxon Posted 7/17/2006 8:16:59 AM #709
Does anyone have a copy saved of the famous Mario/Snake pic?

I'd like to see it too. I don't see it on creativename's site.

RE's doing even better than I expected. Shadow Hearts might end up with something like 4.5% on FF in the stats if this continues.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
andaca | Posted 7/17/2006 7:20:42 AM | message detail
People don't honestly believe that Warcraft drew in 20-30k rallied votes, do they?

The match only had about ~10,000 votes more than the matches next to it, and it seems silly to think that all 10,000 of those swung for WC. The rallying probably gave it the win, sure, but I don't think it really did much of anything to its raw strength.
transience | Posted 7/17/2006 7:22:24 AM | message detail
it got 15,000 more than second place, on a match that wasn't likely to get 110k votes in the first place. I'd say 20k is pretty accurate.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
transience | Posted 7/17/2006 7:25:58 AM | message detail
whoa, I just looked at FF/Diablo, holy crap. I take that back.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
Slowflake | Posted 7/17/2006 7:29:00 AM | message detail
Yeah, but it's FF. Its matches are ALWAYS like that.

But yeah, 10000 rallied votes wouldn't be so far-fetched. I wonder to what extent they'll even bother against Mario.
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
consolefreak | Posted 7/17/2006 7:45:34 AM | message detail
I knew Shadow Hearts would lose big, but this is better than what Samus did for God's sake! I wonder how it's going to get on FF - because let's face it, SF is no longer a concern. Sure, SH is horribly fodderific, but it gets harder and harder to get high percentages as you climb up.

This fact shouldn't be overestimated though. No matter how big the blow-out, there's always the chance of the cause being more the weaker contestant than the stronger one.

I will not deny that RE's performance is rather impressive though, and RE is certainly the favourite against SF after both their matches IMO (more so than before their matches). Regardless, SF shouldn't be written off.

Anyway, to look at this result from a different perspective, if the match ends at 87.5 - 12.5, TES would have to break 82.26% on SH for SF to beat RE.

Not impossible, but it does look good for RE, I'd say.
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"I didn't come to play, I came to win" - Kamahl, Pit Fighter.
Master Moltar | Posted 7/17/2006 7:53:00 AM | message detail
That's right SH, continue to fail...

And I'd imagine WarCraft got between 10-15K rally vote in that match.
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Resident Evil vs. Shadow Hearts - Bracket: RE - Vote: RE (13/15)
andaca | Posted 7/17/2006 7:58:22 AM | message detail
The thing is, I can imagine there being an extra 10-15k votes because of rallying attempts, but those aren't all going to go for Warcraft. Assuming it gets anywhere beyond 70% of them seems highly unlikely to me.
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/17/2006 8:13:24 AM | message detail
The amount of rallied votes really doesn't matter. Without rallying, GTA beats Warcaft easily. Let's say Warcraft got a figure of around 15,000 rallied votes, in which case GTA wins with 56%. Make it 20,000 and GTA wins by more. It really doesn't matter. We know who is truly stronger on GameFAQs, without outside interference, and that's all that should matter.

It might matter if we ever have Blizzard vs. Blizzard, but that's about it.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 7/17/2006 8:14:51 AM | message detail
*Stunners this topic*
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transience | Posted 7/17/2006 9:14:28 AM | message detail
I bet rallying would be at its peak for a blizzard vs. blizzard matchup. either way, I bet if GTA was slightly stronger, you'd have seen more rallied votes. a comeback was impossible because you knew if something happened WC would just rally the votes necessary in a close match like that.

WC is naturally stronger than any of us gave it credit for. we all acknowledged WC's rallying power. we just thought it'd be too far ahead for it to matter. we were wrong there.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
Tediz247 | Posted 7/17/2006 10:02:43 AM | message detail
RE's pushing toward 88% again. Very impressive, considering how hard it is to increase percentage when it's this high.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
Phediuk | Posted 7/17/2006 10:41:51 AM | message detail
XD at all the people STILL trying to justify their SF>RE pick.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/17/2006 10:50:27 AM | message detail
*Rock Bottoms ExTha*
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
JUST LIKE UR MOM LOLO AND URS TO LALA-Tombolo
rpgapzx | Posted 7/17/2006 11:14:00 AM | message detail
XD at all the people STILL trying to justify their SF>RE pick.

It makes no sense to try to justify either pick based off today and yesterday. We should be laughing at both.

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SC2k6: 14/15
Today: Bracket: RE Vote: RE
Slowflake | Posted 7/17/2006 11:15:31 AM | message detail
Tsk tsk. Two potential upsets were completely squashed in the last four days. No need to talk about them now.
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/17/2006 11:55:25 AM | message detail
Heh, Slow, that's an interesting stat.

It makes no sense to try to justify either pick based off today and yesterday. We should be laughing at both.


It's Phediuk
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Slowflake | Posted 7/17/2006 12:02:18 PM | message detail
But Phediuk is right. An 88% performance just plain can't be attributed to only the weakness of the opponent. Before today, no entrant that's considered "non-elite" has ever broken 85% in any poll. Ever. Even against the weakest of the weakest.
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/17/2006 12:21:57 PM | message detail
I know he's right (for once), I just mean it's the way he said it.
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bobby200614 | Posted 7/17/2006 12:25:19 PM | message detail
RE does look really strong right now.

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You know the kinda people that come to these Stacy concerts, these dudes have got energy to spare. I'm talking guys who beat off four times a day!
transience | Posted 7/17/2006 12:36:54 PM | message detail
I think the point is that you shouldn't gauge strength off one blowout against fodder, especially something as weak as Shadow Hearts. remember when Tifa was winning the contest because she quadded Vyse? in my mind, Shadow Hearts would struggle to get 20% on anything unless its opponent is prone to antivoting. yeah RE has some strength to get this high, but it's more the opponent than anything else. Shadow Hearts doesn't belong in this tournament.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
rpgapzx | Posted 7/17/2006 12:57:34 PM | message detail
But Phediuk is right. An 88% performance just plain can't be attributed to only the weakness of the opponent. Before today, no entrant that's considered "non-elite" has ever broken 85% in any poll. Ever. Even against the weakest of the weakest.

I agree with most of the arguments presented. However, I still wouldn't stretch it too far. There are enough counter-examples to make RE anything but definite

Magus: 81.04%
Luca Blight: 18.96%


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SC2k6: 14/15
Today: Bracket: RE Vote: RE
Phediuk | Posted 7/17/2006 1:11:03 PM | message detail
What in the HELL do Magus and Luca Blight have to do with RE kicking the crap out of SH?
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
LegendarySnake | Posted 7/17/2006 1:24:46 PM | message detail
An 88% performance just plain can't be attributed to only the weakness of the opponent

Yes, it can, when it's Shadow Hearts. Honestly, I have a hard time believing that Street Fighter wouldn't be pulling close to the same numbers.
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I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake!
rpgapzx | Posted 7/17/2006 1:25:30 PM | message detail
What in the HELL do Magus and Luca Blight have to do with RE kicking the crap out of SH?

The point is you shouldn't use 1 blowout to extrapolate into a definitive status of strength, no matter how bad it is. People who said that RE was gunna knock the socks of SH today were correct. People who said that it means that RE is gunna 60/40 SF are just guessing.

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SC2k6: 14/15
Today: Bracket: RE Vote: RE
LegendarySnake | Posted 7/17/2006 1:25:40 PM | message detail
And besides, we attributed a 94% performance to the weakness of Tanner. Solid Snake was weaker than he's ever been when that match took place. What's the difference?
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I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake!
LegendarySnake | Posted 7/17/2006 1:26:51 PM | message detail
Resident Evil's individual vote total at 16:25 - 73339
The Legend of Zelda's individual vote total at 16:25 - 72941
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I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake!
rpgapzx | Posted 7/17/2006 1:28:58 PM | message detail
Resident Evil's individual vote total at 16:25 - 73339
The Legend of Zelda's individual vote total at 16:25 - 72941


ZOMG!!!
That means RE>LoZ
ROFLCOPTER!!!

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SC2k6: 14/15
Today: Bracket: RE Vote: RE
makiotwist | Posted 7/17/2006 1:31:34 PM | message detail
omg ur loogek iz amayzeng

re>u all
zombies>ur braynz
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mgo sn: RA1D3N
"We're all born with an expiration date. No one lasts forever." -Solidus Snake, MGS2
Kaxon | Posted 7/17/2006 1:39:52 PM | message detail
Resident Evil passing Cloud in the top vote getters list makes me sad. I can only hope that the big three return to the main bracket this year and have a chance to reestablish their records.
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
Janus5000 | Posted 7/17/2006 1:43:47 PM | message detail
Before today, no entrant that's considered "non-elite" has ever broken 85% in any poll. Ever. Even against the weakest of the weakest.

To be fair, they've never exactly gotten this kind of opportunity.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
FFDragon | Posted 7/17/2006 1:48:24 PM | message detail
Resident Evil passing Cloud in the top vote getters list makes me estatic. ^_^
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dragoontheguy | Posted 7/17/2006 2:10:47 PM | message detail
To be fair, they've never exactly gotten this kind of opportunity.

Bowser and Gannon got pretty good opportunities in round one of the villain contest; but if SH is to this contest as Yuri was to the character contest (which is probably fairly accurate), then I'd probably agree. It's not like non-noble niners have never been given good shots at it before though.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
steve illumina | Posted 7/17/2006 2:58:58 PM | message detail
Couple of comments before my Round 2 analysis begins...

478 Perfects...glad to be one of them :) Kudos to us!

I will justify my SF over RE pick and tell all why it will prevail the day before the match..this way it gets the readership it deserves! :)

My predictions were so correct in that every noob and their 4th cousin would call RE invincible after dispatching a cupcake like Shadow Hearts. Madden would beat Shadow Hearts handily for goodness sake!

Fire Emblem truly has no business being in Round 2 with the other 15 series that are there...all of them true series who have done something for gaming, have had million sellers and/or collections released, have had toys made of them, or cereals, or underwear, or what have you. As far as I know, Fire Emblem has not even had a promotional mouse pad made for it to be given to peeps who reserve copies at GameStop! Ceej should have put FE against Mario Kart in Round 1, this way, there really would be 16 worthy series in the 2nd round...oh well...deep down I know most peeps agree with me on this issue...

All in all, my perfect aside, this contest has been more enjoyable so far than in recent years.

Now...to write my column! :) Stay tuned!
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by the Masses.
Score: 16-0. Next Win: ZELDA!
ExThaNemesis | Posted 7/17/2006 3:02:20 PM | message detail
*stunners stats topic*

AUSTIN 3:16 SAYS I COULD WHIP YOUR ASS111!!
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--My Anti-Drug--