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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 316

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NewLib | Posted 7/16/2006 9:11:21 PM | message detail
If RE wins 88-12. Mario would have to beat Resident Evil 68-32 for Madden to be stronger than SH.
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Master Moltar | Posted 7/16/2006 9:12:19 PM | message detail
More like neighbor of 81%!

And yeah, I didn't think SH would get it this bad. Dayum...I expected 85% at the most.
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Resident Evil vs. Shadow Hearts - Bracket: RE - Vote: RE (13/15)
SonicRaptor | Posted 7/16/2006 9:12:40 PM | message detail
Looks like RE isn't going to break 90%.
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Current Contest Score: 14/14 Next Winner: Street Fighter
I'll just put something to fill another line here.
creativename | Posted 7/16/2006 9:13:15 PM | message detail
I can't see how anyone can try to discount RE's early performance here, unless they're reaching to find reasons for SF looking good.

SF still has a shot, it's not like the match is a given, but RE was already the favorite and has clearly seemed to solidify itself. 85+% is pretty damn good for a non-Big Three entry no matter how you look at it.

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Lopen | Posted 7/16/2006 9:14:52 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be too surprised if Mario could beat RE 68-32, honestly. I'd have taken Madden over Shadow Hearts before this contest, anyway. I really did think it was in contention to be the weakest here the whole time... though I can't say I expected a beating this bad.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 7/16/2006 9:15:17 PM | message detail
Yeah, SF still has a chance because we just don't know how strong Elder Scrolls is and we all knew from the start that SH is pure fodder.
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Current Contest Score: 15/15 Next Winner: Resident Evil
I'll just put something to fill another line here.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/16/2006 9:16:06 PM | message detail
I told ya RE would look damn good in this match. Its official, Shadow Heart is gonna be dead last in the stats >_>
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/16/2006 9:18:18 PM | message detail
This says nothing at all about RE's strength. Unless you think RE could easily double SF, SF would be doing nearly as well as RE here. Percentages at this high level reflect far more on the loser than the winner.
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creativename | Posted 7/16/2006 9:20:11 PM | message detail
Percentages at this high level reflect far more on the loser than the winner.

A good point, very true.

But still, this is a very good performance by RE.
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KohlrabiGod | Posted 7/16/2006 9:20:22 PM | message detail
Personally, I don't think Shadow Hearts would be doing much worse if it were against Final Fantasy...

It probably gets a third of its votes from anti-voting, anyway.

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Release date... Coming...
steve illumina | Posted 7/16/2006 9:20:26 PM | message detail
70% of the entrants this year would score 80% on this joke SH. Halo, KH, GTA, SSBM, CV, both MM's, MK, SF, etc...they all would destroy it all the same as RE is
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Big Bob | Posted 7/16/2006 9:20:52 PM | message detail
Doesn't RE do better during the day?

At this rate, it might be the very first non-noble niner to break 90%..
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/16/2006 9:21:26 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy would clear 90% on Shadow Hearts with ease.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
creativename | Posted 7/16/2006 9:22:04 PM | message detail
I'd be pretty surprised if it got to 90%.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/16/2006 9:22:08 PM | message detail
And I think 90% is out of the question at this point. Sure, it's only about 2.5% more, but that's a hard climb at this point.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
creativename | Posted 7/16/2006 9:22:40 PM | message detail
This match I mean. Final Fantasy would clear 90% almost as a matter of course.
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Master Moltar | Posted 7/16/2006 9:23:28 PM | message detail
FF could push 95% against this chump.
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Resident Evil vs. Shadow Hearts - Bracket: RE - Vote: RE (13/15)
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/16/2006 9:24:37 PM | message detail
I was going to say it'd push 95%, but with anti-voting, I don't know if I'd make such a claim. It doesn't take much to drop the percentage there.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
frisqo | Posted 7/16/2006 9:25:54 PM | message detail
Holy crap, 430+ perfects left after the first round. How many perfects are we gonna have when this is all said and done, 50-100? The favorites seem like they are gonna steamroll for the rest of the tourney. (SSBM vs Sonic is the only match I'm not 100% sure of right now)

Hope you guys put those tie-braker #'s past 70K. (Maybe not that high though)
creativename | Posted 7/16/2006 9:26:00 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy anti-voting has shown over and over again to be overrated as we have never really seen any such situations (except possibly Sephiroth in the Villains contest). Any time people say Final Fantasy can't reach such-and-such levels against such-and-such opponent due to anti-voting, it blows past them.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 7/16/2006 9:26:37 PM | message detail
70% of the entrants this year would score 80% on this joke SH. Halo, KH, GTA, SSBM, CV, both MM's, MK, SF, etc...they all would destroy it all the same as RE is

Yes, I just simply believe that all that we can measure is how weak SH is. There are just so many series in this contest that would kill SH as badly as RE is right now.

Nobody was talking about how "strong" Snake was when he damn-near killed Tanner. Everyone was talking about how ridiculously weak Tanner was. The same goes for Adventure, AiAi, Ms. Pac-Man and other sub-contest fodder in their first round matches.
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Current Contest Score: 15/15 Next Winner: Resident Evil
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creativename | Posted 7/16/2006 9:27:53 PM | message detail
If Final Fantasy/Final Fantasy VII anti-voting truly existed (as in, a static anti-vote fanbase that reduces blowout performances), Cloud vs. CATS and Cloud vs. Sonic and Final Fantasy VII vs. Suikoden and Final Fantasy vs. Diablo, etc. all probably wouldn't have been so extreme.
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charmander6000 | Posted 7/16/2006 9:28:48 PM | message detail
Don't forget only about half the perfects have Final Fantasy winning.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/16/2006 9:32:41 PM | message detail
For the record, the highest percentage a non-Noble Niner has ever gotten is 84.98% (Ganondorf/Giygas). Bowser/Pyramid Head is second at 83.88%.

If you want a match that isn't the Villains Contest, you have to go down to 81.04% by Magus on Luca Blight, even though that's still Villains Contest fodder. After that, you have Ryu's 80.79% on CATS, but once again, Villains Contest fodder (seeing a theme here?). Finally, Knuckles the Echidna's 80.56% is the best by a non-Noble Niner against a non-villain (first quadrupling in contest history, to boot).

As far as games not starring a Noble Niner, GoldenEye's 80.81% on Panzer Dragoon Saga is the record there.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/16/2006 9:40:18 PM | message detail
While this looks impressive for a series not belonging to a noble niner, I probably shouldn't have been so surprised to see RE do so well as I was when I opened the poll (I was expecting about 80%). I guess I should have kept in mind that yuri was the weakest character in the 2k5 contest.

Just out of curiosity, what would yuri be epxected to get on tanner?
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RPGuy96 | Posted 7/16/2006 9:41:15 PM | message detail
From the looks of the leaderboard, I'd guess that more like 33-40% of the perfects have Final Fantasy winning. I imagine the percentage with Castlevania winning its match will be rather low as well (though probably better for the perfects than anyone else). Smash Bros./Sonic is probably split down the middle, and Leon was criminally underestimated against Gordon, whereas Bison had pretty good support against Albedo, so I think that'll be less than half. If we see any perfects, there won't be many of them. And, at -1 and feeling very confident about all my picks, I'm hoping we don't see any. :p
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/16/2006 9:43:27 PM | message detail
Man, Resident Evil is still making some big strides. That was an 88.92% update.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
HaRRicH | Posted 7/16/2006 9:45:31 PM | message detail
Ya know, thinkin' about it, Bison was probably the favorite to get to Kefka in his four-pack (either him or Ridley). That strikes me funny, for whatever reason.
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NewLib | Posted 7/16/2006 9:45:40 PM | message detail
Im sorry. I dont believe that just any series could get 88% on Shadow Hearts.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/16/2006 9:47:02 PM | message detail
I dont believe that just any series could get 88% on Shadow Hearts.

What exactly are you expecting Shadow Hearts to be? Well, maybe some wouldn't get as high as 88%, but I'd bet on a good dozen or more breaking 85% on it.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Draco1214 | Posted 7/16/2006 9:48:22 PM | message detail
Remember how weak Yuri is. He didn't even break 10% in the adjusted stats.
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NewLib | Posted 7/16/2006 9:48:54 PM | message detail
I dont expect it to be much, but I dont think many series could get 88% on any other series. And unless Shadow Heart is tanner level, I doubt RE is anything but a high midcarder.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/16/2006 9:50:10 PM | message detail
...I'm getting mixed signals from you here.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
KohlrabiGod | Posted 7/16/2006 9:51:31 PM | message detail
Curse this new start time!

If it remained the same, I might have been able to provide evidence for my conjecture that the number of votes for Shadow Hearts is near consistent!

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*Stares at FFVA game info with bloodshot eyes*
Release date... Coming...
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/16/2006 9:53:37 PM | message detail
If it remained the same, I might have been able to provide evidence for my conjecture that the number of votes for Shadow Hearts is near consistent!

Well I suppose if you take into account the increase in vote totals, it's doing pretty much the same as yuri did on Samus. Peronally I've never believed that any contestant has an absolute ceiling of votes, as some have suggested CATS has in the past.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/16/2006 9:55:10 PM | message detail
To be fair, people just weren't aware of how widespread the AYB thing is...however, I think every contestant has a ceiling of votes...it just really doesn't ever matter. I hardly think Madden would break 80,000 votes in *any* match, for one (a bit extreme, but shows that it *is* there).
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NewLib | Posted 7/16/2006 9:55:29 PM | message detail
Resident Evil is doing better than Samus did againist Yuri.

Of course that means nothing really.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/16/2006 9:56:02 PM | message detail
For what it's worth, I'd consider taking RE over Metroid.
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NewLib | Posted 7/16/2006 9:56:34 PM | message detail
I actually would too. I dont know, I just dont think Metroid is all that strong. Of course we will never know.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 7/16/2006 9:56:55 PM | message detail
To be fair, people just weren't aware of how widespread the AYB thing is...however, I think every contestant has a ceiling of votes...it just really doesn't ever matter. I hardly think Madden would break 80,000 votes in *any* match, for one (a bit extreme, but shows that it *is* there).

When I say ceiling of votes, I mean that it's not impossible for any contestant to break a realistic number, not "lol loz can't break five billion votes" (although I understand what you're saying with madden).
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Tai | Posted 7/16/2006 9:57:47 PM | message detail
Uh...Nintendo would propel Metroid over RE! :D

It's not Blizzard, right? >_>

....I'll shut up now.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/16/2006 10:07:21 PM | message detail
So...now that the first round is pretty much over...Picture theme for round 2?
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/16/2006 10:08:40 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/16/2006 10:08:40 PM | message detail
Uh...well, since Fire Emblem is by far the smallest threat to Metal Gear...sprites.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 7/16/2006 10:10:19 PM | message detail
For some reason I'm not expecting sprites until round 3. Maybe round two will have boxart...or something. I really have no idea.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/16/2006 10:11:18 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm expecting sprites for Round 3. I was just having wishful thoughts. Damn you Ceej.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/16/2006 10:12:05 PM | message detail
Well, sprites were round 2 for the Villains Contest...though they weren't til the Elite Eight in the Character Contest.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Master Moltar | Posted 7/16/2006 10:13:22 PM | message detail
Round 2...maybe close-ups of the biggest character in the series. Then sprites for Round 3, then User-submitted for the rest.

I hope >.>
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Resident Evil vs. Shadow Hearts - Bracket: RE - Vote: RE (13/15)
Janus5000 | Posted 7/16/2006 10:20:27 PM | message detail
Aaaaaaand RE breaks 88%.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/16/2006 10:22:50 PM | message detail
At the 1:20 mark, this match has 13809 votes. To compare with other matches at the same time:

Zelda/Civilization - 12852
Kingdom Hearts/Harvest Moon - 13831
Sonic/DMC - 14841
Elder Scrolls/Street Fighter - 13766

The Legend of Zelda had 11547 individual votes.
Resident Evil has 12161 individual votes.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden