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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 315

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Slowflake | Posted 7/15/2006 6:50:48 AM | message detail
Yeah, that's pretty sad. He saw a pair of upsets coming in a meaningless online contest, and suddenly he's God. I'd like to kick his teeth in.

Hilariously enough, had I made a bracket I would've picked Halo, GTA and Mario Kart. Good thing I abstained, huh?
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/15/2006 6:52:05 AM | message detail
I picked Megaman, but my bracket is dead anyway (I picked Halo and GTA). So I wanted MK to win just to shut illumina up.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
I admire MYC, for she is the pinnacle of human wit, poise, and beauty.
transcience | Posted 7/15/2006 6:58:22 AM | message detail
I stopped reading illumina posts about a year and some ago. besides, his bragging just makes it better when he inevitably falls. and if he doesn't, hey, congrats.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/15/2006 6:58:53 AM | message detail
I'm waiting eagerly for that day...does he have SSB over Sonic?
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
I admire MYC, for she is the pinnacle of human wit, poise, and beauty.
transcience | Posted 7/15/2006 7:00:16 AM | message detail
if I remember right, he's got Sonic. he's got SF over RE though, which to me is an obvious loss. then again, so was GTA.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/15/2006 7:11:13 AM | message detail
He's got SF over RE?! Oh thank god.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
I admire MYC, for she is the pinnacle of human wit, poise, and beauty.
alpha door | Posted 7/15/2006 7:48:34 AM | message detail
Not that it matters, but MM's % seems to be tanking. I suspect MK will win an update sometime soon. Day vote I guess.
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Official Chrono Trigger Fan
I. Want. Spore. Now.
jonthomson | Posted 7/15/2006 7:52:51 AM | message detail
I suspect MK will win an update sometime soon.

It won a couple of five-minute updates earlier. Hence my joke comeback post.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
steve illumina | Posted 7/15/2006 8:00:47 AM | message detail
Yes yes...Mario Kart is done...and MM is dropping just enough to get closer to my Oracle pick... "thats a good blue bomber"

Guess Ill take off the Hard Hat and put on Balrog's boxing gloves...gotta punch out that Morrowind fellow at midnight tonight!

And yes... I got Sonic over 1 hit wonder SSB
And yes... SF will take out RE in the biggest and only Round 2 upset...
And yes... and yes... and yes... my fanbase will grow, as will the League of Noobies waiting for me to lose a match, bitter they put their hopes in Halo and the other flops... This all just makes things so much more fun here...cause watching fodder like Diablo lose is not much fun!"
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by the Masses.
Score: 14-0. Next Win: Street Fighter!
HaRRicH | Posted 7/15/2006 8:02:15 AM | message detail
Don't stop now MK, pull a Master Hand and get monstrous with the day-vote...

...but don't pull a Dr. Robotnik/MH and lose!
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/15/2006 8:03:17 AM | message detail
And yes... SF will take out RE in the biggest and only Round 2 upset...

No perfect from steve, afterall.
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Slowflake | Posted 7/15/2006 8:03:26 AM | message detail
my fanbase will grow

more liek teh base of ppl that want to kick your ass lol mirite?
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
HaRRicH | Posted 7/15/2006 8:07:12 AM | message detail
Speaking of SF/RE, Dilated Chemist. are we still on for the sig-bet in that match?
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jonthomson | Posted 7/15/2006 8:08:13 AM | message detail
No perfect from steve, afterall.

Think he said he had KH>CV as well
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
Master Moltar | Posted 7/15/2006 8:13:10 AM | message detail
Good to see MM's percentage fall...yep
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Mega Man vs. Mario Kart - Bracket: MM - Vote: MK (11/13)
steve illumina | Posted 7/15/2006 8:14:59 AM | message detail
All in good fun peeps, all in good fun...

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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by the Masses.
Score: 14-0. Next Win: Street Fighter!
steve illumina | Posted 7/15/2006 8:15:55 AM | message detail
Yep I have KH over CV too

3 big matches in Round 2: Go Sonic! Go KH! Go SF!
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by the Masses.
Score: 14-0. Next Win: Street Fighter!
Dark Ninja1521 | Posted 7/15/2006 8:16:54 AM | message detail
I got SSB, KH, and RE. >_>
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XBOX Live Gamertag: agentninja
Currently playing: Dead or Alive 4 (Xbox 360), Call of Duty 2 (Xbox 360), NGB (Xbox), and Halo 2 (Xbox)
Kratos_42 | Posted 7/15/2006 8:38:30 AM | message detail
Mark me words. Elder Scrolls is winning tommorow.
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising. CERtified user.
Eggplant Lord | Posted 7/15/2006 9:10:39 AM | message detail
What happened here? O_o

2006-07-15 05:45:02
18883

12607

59.97%

40.03%

31490

6276

102

0

100.00%

0.00%


It's from the match updater.

///
*Stares at FFVA game info with bloodshot eyes*
Release date... Coming...
Slowflake | Posted 7/15/2006 9:15:49 AM | message detail
2006-07-15 05:45:02
18883

12607

59.97%

40.03%

31490

6276

This is what I have... no clue, though. I'd be willing to bank it has to do with BOP data from Spring 2004, though.
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
The n00b Avenger | Posted 7/15/2006 9:35:56 AM | message detail
Poll glitch. It didn't update Maro Kart's poll numbers for that time.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Aprosenf | Posted 7/15/2006 9:43:30 AM | message detail
I gotta hand it to you Steve, you may just have a perfect bracket. At this point it's looking pretty likely that Sonic > SSB and MG > KH > CV. The toughest match left is SF/RE. My gut originally picked SF, but the board convinced me to change to RE.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/15/2006 9:50:25 AM | message detail
MG > KH > CV

How is that looking likely?
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/15/2006 10:18:16 AM | message detail
MG > KH > CV.

I would wager that the more likely scenario is Metal Gear > Castlevania > Kingdom Hearts.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/15/2006 10:19:06 AM | message detail
I would wager that the more likely scenario is Metal Gear > Castlevania > Kingdom Hearts.

Again, how?
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/15/2006 10:24:47 AM | message detail
Based upon the fact that we have seen older, established series generally perform far better than newer series, especially those from the current generation. On top of that, Kingdom Hearts, as with most things through StarCraft, was overrated back in Spring 2004. Its performance against Harvest Moon was hardly impressive, though its ability to draw in 80,000 votes was the best thing going for it in that match.

Kingdom Hearts II may be enough to tip the scale in favor of Kingdom Hearts, but I very much doubt it. With the way things are playing out in this contest, Metal Gear is going to be facing Castlevania in the division final. I'm not sure how one can figure it is more likely that Kingdom Hearts make it there over Castlevania.

And, uh, why are you asking how to both equations?

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/15/2006 10:25:43 AM | message detail
Oh, misread your post. I thought you said "that's a more likely scenario than." Yeah, I agree with you.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/15/2006 10:27:08 AM | message detail
Oh. Yeah, I could see how one could make that mistake after reading it again. Heh.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
dethfdddddh | Posted 7/15/2006 10:30:44 AM | message detail
Megaman's back to gaining percentage...
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Just Got Owned By Guru winner Voltch.
LordOfDabu | Posted 7/15/2006 11:09:03 AM | message detail
I'm really surprised about the whole Chrono thing. I can count the number of series that I'd put over it in this contest on one hand (not that I need a hand to count, mind you). Bad spelling must be why Crono is always underseeded!

An automated counter could also explain StarCraft's low seed back in 2004, since I know a number of people entered "StarCraft: Brood War" or just "Brood War" as their nominations.

It could explain a lack of Aeris in recent contests as well.
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The GameFAQs StarCraft Tournament of Champions 2006 Bracket:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=2000184&topic=28995048
consolefreak | Posted 7/15/2006 11:19:00 AM | message detail
I would hate to see a perfect this year, but I think it's just too likely at this point.


Realistically (IMO), the only matches were we could lose any significant amount of perfects are the following ones:


- Street Fighter - Elder Scrolls
- Resident Evil - Steet Fighter (or Elder Scrolls)
- FF - LoZ
- Metal Gear - Castlevania (or Kingdom Hearts)
- Castlevania - Kingdom Hearts
- Sonic - SSB


Randomly, the chance of having all those 6 matches perfect is 1 out of 64.

If you really want to stretch it, you could say that a lot of perfects may be set on Pokemon beating Metroid or SMB pulling something, which would result in a random chance of 1/256 of having a perfect bracket at the end of it all.

We have 890 perfect right now, so I'll think we'll end up with at least 5 perfects this contest, probably around 20. If it's not Steve (which it probably won't be) it's gonna be someone else.

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"I didn't come to play, I came to win" - Kamahl, Pit Fighter.
DeepHyren12 | Posted 7/15/2006 11:21:35 AM | message detail
But I still voted for Mario Kart. I'm actually a bit surprised that a series that had almost of all its good games on the NES is that popular. I thought that the average GameFAQs age would be a bit too young for that

They are, but emulation allows them to go back and play the classics.
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"Civil government is in reality instituted for the defense of the rich against the poor" --Adam Smith
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/15/2006 11:22:17 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1514
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
The Real Truth | Posted 7/15/2006 11:23:54 AM | message detail
I still doubt that someone gets a perfect this year. You lose perfects pretty much every match and I honestly think that if Castlevania wins, it'll end them or get them low enough for another match to finish them.
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Best Series Ever 12/13, MM > MK
Zylo the wolf | Posted 7/15/2006 11:24:45 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
The Real Truth | Posted 7/15/2006 11:25:25 AM | message detail
Yeah I think so.
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Best Series Ever 12/13, MM > MK
Zylo the wolf | Posted 7/15/2006 11:27:21 AM | message detail
Whoops >_>

But still, how can anyone be perfect and then pick Diablo over Final Fantasy? Maybe they thought Diablofans would spam all over internet and all Diablo site would link. But I guess that still wouldn't have stopped FF.
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1f u c4n r34d th1s u r34lly n33d t0 g37 l41d
The Real Truth | Posted 7/15/2006 11:30:45 AM | message detail
That and they could've been favorites brackets. Not everyone can win a prize either, so maybe they went with it hoping for an upset, not really caring if they ended up wrong or not.
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Best Series Ever 13/14, SF > ES
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/15/2006 11:33:28 AM | message detail
I can't believe people are simply ignoring Metroid > Chrono. At this point in the contest I'd take Metroid to win, and feel great about it. Pre contest? Probably not.

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ccbfan | Posted 7/15/2006 11:33:48 AM | message detail
I think Cjayc just hates anything Crono related period.

Seriously, Crono has gotten the shaft from Cjayc more than all other entities in the contests combined. At this points its not a coincidence anymore. Cjayc just hates Crono.

Maybe when he was a kid, he used to get bullied in school by a big Crono fan.
WilhuffTarkin | Posted 7/15/2006 11:35:17 AM | message detail
It's not Ceej's falt that Crono fans were stuffing votes.
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Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.
consolefreak | Posted 7/15/2006 11:36:15 AM | message detail
Heh. I forgot to put this match, certainly a bracket buster, into the equation! Yeah so change those numbers to 1/128 or 1/512 for the stretch.

So yeah I'll think we'll end up with at least 2 probably around 10 perfects.

And that is accounting for some random losses (matches like Street Fighter - Elder Scrolls should have a prediction percentage of well over 50%).

But I certainly hope we'll end up with none. I mean, this contest, in retrospect, was certainly harder than the villain contest, right? No perfects there either. But then again we've had way more brackets for this one.

Ah whatever we'll see how it all works out.
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"I didn't come to play, I came to win" - Kamahl, Pit Fighter.
Slowflake | Posted 7/15/2006 11:36:16 AM | message detail
Well, that'd explain Crono NEVER getting a 1-seed, even in an 8x8 format and with Clinkeroth gone.

But when CJayC was a kid, Crono sure as heck didn't exist. Heck, I seriously doubt Megaman existed.
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
WilhuffTarkin | Posted 7/15/2006 11:37:02 AM | message detail
Crono doesn't get a one seed because other characters get more noms. Isn't that how the format works?
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Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 7/15/2006 11:37:16 AM | message detail
Heck Crono's and Ct's performances might all be a huge lie by CjayC. Maybe he got so tired of them in 2005 that he didn't help Magus and Frog at all (which explains why they did so bad) and then even got tired of Crono himself when he faced Megaman.

CjayC you sneaky bastard :P
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1f u c4n r34d th1s u r34lly n33d t0 g37 l41d
Zylo the wolf | Posted 7/15/2006 11:37:33 AM | message detail
*Mario, not Megaman*
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1f u c4n r34d th1s u r34lly n33d t0 g37 l41d
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/15/2006 11:37:51 AM | message detail
I doubt we'll have a perfect this contest.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
ccbfan | Posted 7/15/2006 11:43:51 AM | message detail
Crono doesn't get a one seed because other characters get more noms. Isn't that how the format works?

Nope, if thats the case then Cats would get higher than a 16 seed every year (or eight seed in a 8 bracket contest). Heck I reckon he could be a seed favorite in the first round.
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/15/2006 11:48:40 AM | message detail
At this point it's looking pretty likely that Sonic > SSB and MG > KH > CV.

If I hear one more person say KH > CV is looking likely, my entire body is going to spontaneously combust. I don't know how many times I can explain it, honestly, I haven't even heard a single good retort as to why KH should be considered the favorite, so then, if someone supporting it can't give me a good reason, I'll assume everyone is just ****ing with me.

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