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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 315

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transience | Posted 7/14/2006 10:47:47 PM | message detail

that would be, um, Heroic Mario.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!

Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 10:48:00 PM | message detail

That MGS fanboy!
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/14/2006 10:48:19 PM | message detail

Actually, I seem to remember Ulti being a bigger proponent of that upset than Heroic Mario was.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden

FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/14/2006 10:48:28 PM | message detail

Actually, having an upset barely miss hurts more than getting blown out of the water by it. My two upset picks were the closest matches of the contest, and both lost.

Having Master Chief over Frog and Jill over Ryu the previous year wasn't nice for my bracket, either.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 10:49:10 PM | message detail

I seem to remember Ulti going, "lol Mario > Samus lol Mario > Samus lol Mario > Samus lol Mario > Samus lol Mario > Samus lol Mario > Samus lol Mario > Samus lol Mario > Samus lol Mario > Samus" too much for anything else to be intelligible.
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Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/14/2006 10:49:25 PM | message detail

I still can't really remember last year's contest at all... =/
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transience | Posted 7/14/2006 10:49:50 PM | message detail

yeah, it was definitely HM. I think Ulti had it as well, then jumped on the Zelda > Snake bandwagon.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!

LeonhartForever | Posted 7/14/2006 10:50:26 PM | message detail

And "LOL XStats" after Knuckles beat Magus, even after I used those stats to show that Magus was overrated.

And then I get called a stats fanboy, even though I probably took more statistical upsets than most people here.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden

HaRRicH | Posted 7/14/2006 10:50:51 PM | message detail

I believe therealmnm was the biggest I remember for Bowser > Solid.
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transience | Posted 7/14/2006 10:52:04 PM | message detail

ah yes, mnm and Slow argued a lot over that match. it wasn't until after Snake/Sora and everyone jumped on the Snake bandwagon that that happened though.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!

Tequilla Gundam | Posted 7/14/2006 10:52:53 PM | message detail

Yeah, it was definitely Ulti.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 10:52:57 PM | message detail

That Snake > Bowser upset bandwagon!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 10:53:45 PM | message detail

I ask again, people:

MEGA MAN OR MEGA MAN X??? Which is stronger?
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/14/2006 10:54:42 PM | message detail

Mega Man, always believed it, always will believe it.

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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/14/2006 10:54:55 PM | message detail

it wasn't until after Snake/Sora and everyone jumped on the Snake bandwagon that that happened though.

Bowser/Kirby didn't help much either.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden

MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/14/2006 10:55:46 PM | message detail

anyone think MMX could be doing better right now?
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/14/2006 10:56:33 PM | message detail

No.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 11:12:02 PM | message detail

If we set Mega Man and Mega Man X as equal as of now, Mario Kart barely gets a doubling on Suikoden, I think.

Over or under for MK?
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creativename | Posted 7/14/2006 11:12:58 PM | message detail

I cannot believe that CJayC actually thinks Chrono was "more than likely doomed for an early exit" as a 7 seed. This has probably been beaten to death in this topic but there is not a single 2 seed Chrono would not have been favored against, and SSB (the one 2 seed that only trumps Chrono by a single whole "strong iteration") would've been the only one where it wasn't a huge pre-contest favorite.

It is difficult to conceive of how he has been managing these contests for so long and yet doesn't grasp this...? Very odd. I am befuddled.

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creativename | Posted 7/14/2006 11:14:03 PM | message detail

I suppose I'd take Mega Man over Mega Man X, but I don't think anyone can make a truly convincing argument either way.

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Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 7/14/2006 11:15:13 PM | message detail

Several. That's an upset that we should all be glad never materialized.

Actually, I seem to remember Ulti being a bigger proponent of that upset than Heroic Mario was.

WTFHAX

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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/14/2006 11:16:28 PM | message detail

Nice catch.

And I guess CJayC was banking on Chrono Cross hurting more than helping.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden

Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 11:16:43 PM | message detail

I think I can. I can't see the Classic series being stronger on its own than the X series, thanks to ye old poll we got back when. And yet I can't see the MMX that only managed 72.5% on Suikoden getting this much on Mario Kart. Therefore, I'm convinced that Mega Man is getting votes from fans of other things than the Classic games (it's getting at least mine, for one...go MML!). Directly I think MMX takes it, but indirectly it's *all* MM now.
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NewLib | Posted 7/14/2006 11:18:34 PM | message detail

You guys act like the Bowser > Snake bandwagon was unjustified. Snake won 50.59-49.41 or by 1200 votes.

Its not like Bowser got blown out or something and made everyone who supported him look foolish. The match was extremely close.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 11:19:42 PM | message detail

You guys act like the Bowser > Snake bandwagon was unjustified.

...what in the HELL are you talking about???

Never mind, never mind. /ignore
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NewLib | Posted 7/14/2006 11:20:21 PM | message detail

Even when I thought MK was winning this match (I kind of assumed Mega Man would win after Castlevania won), I always thought MM was stronger than MMX. I just didnt think there was a huge difference. I was wrong there.

Or this could just be SFF.
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creativename | Posted 7/14/2006 11:21:57 PM | message detail

The Bower challenging Snake thing was pretty widespread. IIRC it was when people saw the pic though that I think this topic was flooded with "good god, with that insanely one-sided picture Bowser>Snake might actually happen, look at what happened to Snake against Frog!" type posts.

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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/14/2006 11:22:03 PM | message detail

Or this could be Mario Kart not really being THAT strong. Who knows? Honestly, the fact that it's a casual series, but not really a "favorite" could hurt it.
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NewLib | Posted 7/14/2006 11:22:24 PM | message detail

What do you mean what the hell am I talking about? Bowser barely lost, there was good reason to think he could have won that match. Its not like I look back at that match and go, "What was I thinking?" The only thing I did was slightly underrate Snake.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 11:22:53 PM | message detail

NewLib | Posted 7/14/2006 11:23:33 PM | message detail

I agree, but we have seen in the past that Mega Man is treated like a Nintendo series and gets SFF from other Nintendo series. I have no reason to think Zelda can SFF Mega Man, but Mega Man cant turn around and do it to Mario Kart.
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NewLib | Posted 7/14/2006 11:25:09 PM | message detail

creativename | Posted 7/14/2006 11:27:39 PM | message detail

I have no reason to think Zelda can SFF Mega Man, but Mega Man cant turn around and do it to Mario Kart.

Instinctually speaking Zelda SFFing Mega Man makes mountains more sense than Mega Man SFFing Mario Kart.

Also, there's the fact that Zelda is one of the three series on here whose games and characters have SFF potential over almost anything with passing overlaps in fanbase (generation, console, genre etc.), because everyone has played them, and furthermore almost everyone likes them over almost everything outside those three. That logic is speculative, but I think few would truly argue against it.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 11:28:42 PM | message detail

Seriously KH whats the problem. I mean Snake beat Bowser. He was stronger than I thought.

But you act like Snake blew Bowser out of the water and everyone who picked the upset should be embarrased for ever considering it.

No, I'm not. I'm groaning because you're missing the point by such a large margin I'm not even convinced you're reading the same topic I am. No one is downplaying Bowser's performance on Snake -- no one. A large, large number of people have him pegged as the number one non-Noble Nine character, even above Ganondorf or any other character (and I'm right along with them). He's credited with coming the closest to breaking it, and I for one could be as happy as can be from a preference standpoint (Bowser is one of my favorite characters, nearly in my top ten).

Where, oh WHERE, in the HELL did you get the idea that someone was trying to imply the upset was foolish?
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 7/14/2006 11:28:42 PM | message detail

Score-Brackets-% Right
12-----902-----98.6696231
11-----5081----98.1106081
10-----11874---98.3493347
9------13117---98.1245712
8------8621----96.7753161
7------4163----95.7482585
6------1652----94.8547215
5------492-----92.6829268
4------133-----83.4586466
3------62------50.0000000
2------59------11.8644068
1------36------5.5555556
0------6-------0.0000000

Pretty good job today. Top 4 groups were above 98. Still no 100 prediction percentage and after Mario vs Madden the perfect broke 99. The 0s went perfect again. TWO 1s got this match right. That must suck if it was a favorite bracket.

Moving on to what must be a pretty lucky favorite bracket, one person fell off the Top 50. lastofCLEFT, who had Fire Emblem taking the whole contest, had Diablo beating FF.
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creativename | Posted 7/14/2006 11:31:57 PM | message detail

I haven't been following this debate and don't know what KH said, but after the pic was up I don't think anyone thought Boswer winning was insane. We already knew Snake had a sensitivity to 8-bit representations.

Also if you look at the Oracle Challenge the average prediction was 53%. The shocking thing about the match was the reality that a "Noble Niner" came so close to losing to someone who wasn't - the actual fact of Bowser keeping it close was expected. It was a situation where people logically knew it could happen, but the sheer notion of Snake/a Noble Niner losing was still odd to people.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 11:34:33 PM | message detail

I didn't even think the picture made that much of a difference. I always gave Bowser a shot in the upset, even after Snake/Sora. I just thought Snake had more in his corner to pull it off.
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NewLib | Posted 7/14/2006 11:35:02 PM | message detail

creativename | Posted 7/14/2006 11:37:32 PM | message detail

And looking at some earlier posts, I'm flabbergasted that anyone could defend Ceej on the Chrono thing in terms of Chrono's strength. You can defend his lack of time to manually check such things, but not the notion that Chrono would actually be anything other than one of the 8 strongest series in this contest.

Anyone who (even now) thinks Chrono wouldn't beat Resident Evil and Kingdom Hearts, two of the supposedly "stronger" #2 seeds, is borderline nutty or just has little familiarity with these contests. Chrono would probably double more half the series in this contest.

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NewLib | Posted 7/14/2006 11:38:53 PM | message detail

While I do think Chrono would be weaker than most people think here, there is no excuse why Chrono isnt in this contest and Madden is.

Same goes for Donkey Kong Country, Mortal Kombat, etc.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 11:40:26 PM | message detail

Im sorry Karma Hunter. Its late and for some reason I misintepreted one of your posts to mean something it doesnt.

For some reason, I thought you were saying something to the effect, "I cant understand the Bowser>Snake bandwagon." which what I was arguing againist since it was a perfectly legit upset pick. Then you really didnt clear it up, so I took it as meaning you really thought I was stupid for arguing againist it.

Once again, my bad.

Nah, I've just been edgy as of late...it was a perfectly honest mistake, 'twas my bad.

And cn, I don't think something like RE > Chrono is as foolish as you state (though I probably wouldn't take it even now, I wouldn't be shocked if it happened). And while I contemplated it before the contest started, as of now there's no way I think Chrono nabs the #4 spot here. CT and CC will only take it so far.
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arkenaga | Posted 7/14/2006 11:40:54 PM | message detail

Heh, imagine if Chrono took Madden's place...

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NewLib | Posted 7/14/2006 11:42:35 PM | message detail

You mean CT will only take it so far. FFVIII for example while hated by many still has a fairly large fanbase, Chrono Cross is arguably more hated and has a much smaller fanbase defending it. I think at best CC doesnt really effect the strength of the series and at worse it hurts it.

But I think Chrono would finish behind FF, LoZ, Mario, Metal Gear, Sonic, and Mega Man.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 11:43:28 PM | message detail

Yeah, I don't think Chrono makes any noise if it's an 8-seed (though it would probably make waves against MG, though this board thinks so highly of Chrono that merely defeating it would probably make it the undisputable favorite for its division more than whipping SC did).
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NewLib | Posted 7/14/2006 11:46:08 PM | message detail

You know I really want to think of this contest as meaning as much as the Games contest, but the longer it goes the more it seems to be Villian Contest v2.

This contest just doesnt consume me like the Games and Character contest have.
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creativename | Posted 7/14/2006 11:48:44 PM | message detail

KH:
And cn, I don't think something like RE > Chrono is as foolish as you state

I think it's an extreme stretch. Very extreme.

NewLib:
But I think Chrono would finish behind FF, LoZ, Mario, Metal Gear, Sonic, and Mega Man.

Those series and SSB and MMX are the only ones you could really even discuss being stronger. And SSB, MM, MMX, and Sonic are real sketchy. Metal Gear would spark very heavy debate. Despite this "series" thing there's no way Metal Gear vs. Chrono is clear cut at all, given that Chrono Trigger would spank and Metal Gear game. 1 game series or no - would Metal Gear as a series break 40% on Final Fantasy VII alone? Questionable.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 11:57:09 PM | message detail

MG probably wouldn't break 40% on FFVII, but that's likely due to SFF. MGS alone is damn strong, to the point where I think it can probably give anything in the 128 division other than FFVII the fight of its life other than perhaps SSBM itself...and that's just 'cause of the Nintendo boost. MGS2 is worth 40% on SSBM, and all indications are that MGS3 is worth even more. Then take the old-school games and spinoffs (which *do* count for something, probably as much as CC actually) and after what we've seen in this contest I'd feel real good about taking MG over Chrono.

We're seeing the same thing happen before our eyes. You can't begin to tell me a single MM game is on par with an MK release, yet here we are in a 60/40 blowout. Halo probably trumps SotN, yet it gets stomped 55/45. And SSBM, the pride and joy of the 128 division, is by all indications going to be in the fight of its life against freaking Sonic. I don't think people realized how much stronger these things get when you make them series. Myself included, before this contest I would have taken Chrono over MG without a second thought.

But now...as I said, I'd take MG and feel good. Real good.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/14/2006 11:58:59 PM | message detail

1 game series or no - would Metal Gear as a series break 40% on Final Fantasy VII alone? Questionable.

Without SFF?

Unquestionable.
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creativename | Posted 7/15/2006 12:02:25 AM | message detail

Metal Gear is debatable, so I don't begrudge you any reasoning there. (and there's not much point debating a non-existent match like that) Resident Evil is - to be frank - a borderline joke.

Seriously, Resident Evil? A series that might be able to break 25% on Final Fantasy? I have real trouble taking RE>Chrono seriously.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/15/2006 12:03:48 AM | message detail

The best thing about this match is that it was virtually unanimous for Mega Man until a bunch of stat regulars started making arguments and ended up swaying a third of the board to Mario Kart's side. Know what that means?

MASSIVE WHINING AT THE STATS TOPIC COMING UP
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