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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 314

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jonthomson | Posted 7/14/2006 8:29:17 AM | message detail
people are actually arguing that Mario didn't rSFF Samus?

rSFF was originally intended for when one character is clearly weaker than the other and makes the loss less than it ought to be. Mario didn't lose and wasn't clearly weaker than Samus beforehand. The only thing Mario could ever conceivably rSFF by definition is Link.
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ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 7/14/2006 8:32:03 AM | message detail
and which he should receive rsff against Link .. Mario > Link by far!

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Eagerly awaiting Final Fantasy XII!
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/14/2006 8:44:09 AM | message detail
I thought rSFF is when a statisticially weaker character manages to beat a stronger one due to SFF or somethnig similar.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 8:46:26 AM | message detail
Yeah. I don't know what the hell he's trying to say there...the reason why Mario's performance on Samus is considered 'SFF' is because the guy boosted like crazy, to the point where he didn't really *need* SFF to beat her. If he had stayed at the same level that he had in 2k4, won, and lost just as badly to Crono, I think rSFF would be a foregone conclusion.

Thing is, even if Mario was ever statistically weaker than Samus, I don't ever see him losing that match. How many people would take Samus > Mario in 2k4? Be honest, now.
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LoopZoopTheBest | Posted 7/14/2006 9:41:21 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy is doing a good job here.
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Janus5000 | Posted 7/14/2006 9:54:07 AM | message detail
At the 12:50 mark, Final Fantasy has 60621 votes.
Legend of Zelda had 54241 votes.
Super Mario Bros. had 60696 votes.

So with the poll starting late and a much stronger opponent, FF is still only 75 votes behind SMB.

Though as impressive as that seems, it's actually fallen a bit - it had more votes than SMB at 12:45.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 9:56:38 AM | message detail
Wait for it...wait for it...YES! As of now, Final Fantasy is sextupling Diablo.

Sextuple. Sex..tuple. Sext-uple. Hells yeahs!
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Tai | Posted 7/14/2006 9:57:44 AM | message detail
I find it hilarious how just because FF beats a 16 seed people think that means FF will win it all. Rather than talk smack, lets talk history. Link has made his living beating the best FF characters in these matches. At this point I want to see Warcraft win just so FF and LoZ people stop whining

You're talking about hilarious yet expect Warcraft to have a chance against SSB. XD

Diablo's definitely not an 8th seed. I know what you meant, but that's besides the point. Diablo would beat games like Civ. and Madden, so for FF to get 85% on Diablo and still increase is kind of hard to ignore.

But why argue with you? You think Warcraft will beat SMB.
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The Real Truth | Posted 7/14/2006 9:58:01 AM | message detail
I feel bad for Diablo now.
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Best Series Ever 11/12, FF > Diablo
Tai | Posted 7/14/2006 9:59:38 AM | message detail
Sextuple I presume is having six times has more votes, right? >_>' Sorry for being dense.
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LoopZoopTheBest | Posted 7/14/2006 10:00:19 AM | message detail
Even a Nintendo fanboy like me can find some eerie beauty in this match. There's almost a strange sense of serenity somewhere inside this bone-shattering performance.

*stands in the warmth of Final Fantasy's light*
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BeTheMan | Posted 7/14/2006 10:13:04 AM | message detail
I don't see why you guys are actually saying even Mario has a chance.

Obviously, Kuribo's Shoe = Instant Win! >_>
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/14/2006 10:18:29 AM | message detail
I want to mention how undeniably badass that picture is again. Cloud, Tidus, and Squall ... that's an all-star group!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
LordOfDabu | Posted 7/14/2006 10:22:31 AM | message detail
Today's percentage and vote totals are absolutely ridiculous.

This isn't Diablo being weak, because it certainly isn't (it would slaughter Civilization). Maybe one could make an argument for GTA fans anti-voting Blizzard, but that's a real stretch. This is just Final Fantasy showing how badly it's going to own the entire field.
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Big Bob | Posted 7/14/2006 10:52:18 AM | message detail
This is just hopeful thinking here, but isn't it true that games /= characters? Especially with all the talk that "two games don't make a series", coupled with the fact that Diablo, the most recognizable character from the game, isn't even in the picture.

Besides, it's just the first round. Zelda and Mario also mightily impresssed.
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/14/2006 10:54:41 AM | message detail
This is just hopeful thinking here, but isn't it true that games /= characters? Especially with all the talk that "two games don't make a series", coupled with the fact that Diablo, the most recognizable character from the game, isn't even in the picture.

Besides, it's just the first round. Zelda and Mario also mightily impresssed.


Thank you! It isn't impossible that Diablo bombs wherever you put it. I know this is unlikely but something needs to be said if only to be different from all this OMG FF talk.
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/14/2006 10:56:07 AM | message detail
So you would have a hard time choosing between Diablo and Civilization/Madden? Let's say it has the same match picture it does today, too. If you can honestly tell me a match between those two would be close, then ... well ... you're a bit nutty.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 11:05:04 AM | message detail
Having just two games to your name doesn't automatically make you weak. SSB and KH (while perhaps not as strong as many on this board would like to think) aren't weak by any stretch of the imagination.

And Warcraft doesn't have much more going for it than Diablo, honestly. WCII, WCIII, and WoW. So unless you think two games to three makes the difference between cannon-fodder and contenders, I'm going to have to laugh at you.

Go ahead and tell me Diablo would do anything other than CRUSH Civilization. C'mon. I dare ya.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 7/14/2006 11:11:34 AM | message detail
I do think FF is overperforming slightly because FF has a massive pic advantage. I mean, on one side, you have the protagonists from three of the strongest games in the series (possibly excluding FF8, though Squall isn't as strong as he is for nothing), who also happen to be some of the strongest characters in the contest field, compared to a pic that doesn't even star the game's namesake? ...Yeah. No doubt FF is securing quite a few of the picture votes, but I wouldn't say that accounts for that much. This is almost completely legitimate - the contest is over, and we only have tomorrow's match, Sonic/SSB, and possibly RE/Street Fighter to look forward to.
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The Real Truth | Posted 7/14/2006 11:13:13 AM | message detail
You're forgetting Castlevania/Kingdom Hearts.
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Best Series Ever 11/12, FF > Diablo
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/14/2006 11:16:58 AM | message detail
I still think KH has that one fairly easily, but then I thought Halo had its match fairly easily as well.
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/14/2006 11:51:24 AM | message detail
Kratos Auron 43.24% 37162
Diablo 56.76% 48783
TOTAL VOTES 85945

Sonic the Hedgehog 68.55% 63104
Diablo 31.45% 28954
TOTAL VOTES 92058

Ridley 42.35% 31438
Diablo 57.65% 42796
TOTAL VOTES 74234

M. Bison 47.12% 39761
Diablo 52.88% 44627
TOTAL VOTES 84388

Kefka 45.91% 38660
Diablo 54.09% 45547
TOTAL VOTES 84207

Diablo 34.8% 30345
Ganondorf 65.2% 56848
TOTAL VOTES 87193

I believe those are all the polls Diablo was involved in, and you'll notice none of them are exactly impressive. We do not have any data for Diablo's games in a contest other than Diablo 2's admittedly impressive 20 spot on the list. Yeah, we've seen series > character, but the reverse could be true, too, as in Kirby and perhaps Dante. Does Diablo fit the bill of a character being stronger than his series? I wouldn't think so, but does that mean his series must be a great deal stronger? The most recent Diablo was expected to get 22 or 24 depending on which Link you use (I'm just looking at the sff adjusted sc2k5 xsts (I've never been good with them). Figure all of Final Fantasy beats Link, add in picture bias, which I'm never a fan of, throw in a great performance by FF, which this undoubtedly is, no matter how you look at it, put Diablo the series slightly above or equal to Diablo the character, and you get today's result.

I guess I'm just bored/not feeling this performance is radically more impressive than 92% on a series a good few people thought wouldn't completely suck.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 11:52:39 AM | message detail
...that was *way* too much rationalizing for my tastes. Sorry.
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/14/2006 12:02:00 PM | message detail
I'm not trying to rationalize it to the point of FF is in danger of winning the contest, just to the point of this result while impressive, wasn't impossible.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/14/2006 12:02:35 PM | message detail
I definitely think that this is mostly diablo being a kuja/kerrigan level flop. Calling the contest after one match is just ridiculous; we've seen well established characters flop before, why couldn't a series that we haven't seen in action before?
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TRE Public Account | Posted 7/14/2006 12:04:29 PM | message detail
So you would have a hard time choosing between Diablo and Civilization/Madden? Let's say it has the same match picture it does today, too. If you can honestly tell me a match between those two would be close, then ... well ... you're a bit nutty.

I think you're forgetting exactly how badly Madden and Civ were killed. If FF, Zelda and SMB were equal in strength and FF ended with 85.81% on Diablo, Diablo would be projected to get 64.66% on Civ and 72.55% against Madden. Nearly a doubling and nearly a tripling aren't exactly close.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 12:15:27 PM | message detail
People shouldn't have been surprised at Kuja or Kerrigan flopping at all, and I'll never fathom why they were. To place freaking Diablo on their level is something that just confounds me.

People, it's not like we don't have precedence for Diablo's games having strength, here. Despite Starcraft's controversy, no one in the blue hell would ever suggest that it was fodder -- no one. Same goes for Warcraft. Yet you want me to believe that despite Diablo's great showing on The List (without any Board 8 bandwagoning a la Starcraft, mind you), that despite every ounce of common sense that tells me that Diablo is a popular series right on par with Starcraft and Warcraft, that it is going to be struggling to double Civilization? FREAKING CIV????? Unbelievable. It's like some people are absolutely dead-set against giving FF any credit for this match, despite all the common wisdom that it was going to be the strongest series anyway.

Yeah, sometimes we just have anomalies every once in a while -- Vyse being a good example of that. But in 2k3 and 2k4, Cloud and Link respectively went up against CATS, and each time their performances predicted they would win. And they did.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 7/14/2006 12:19:34 PM | message detail
I'm not "dead set" on not giving final fantasy any credit in this match, I'm dead set in calling the contest after one match. People are quite literally saying loz might be hard pressed to break 40% on it. Let's see both series perform a few more times before we call a definite winner. We've seen some very strange things happen before; enough to not be calling contests this quickly I would hope at least.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 7/14/2006 12:20:26 PM | message detail
That should be dead said against, not dead set in.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 12:22:54 PM | message detail
People have been calling this contest over in Final Fantasy's favor since before the bracket was released, of course they're going to call it with actual EVIDENCE. <.<
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dragoontheguy | Posted 7/14/2006 12:26:03 PM | message detail
I realize people ill use any result that looks favourable to them for them to boast that a series will win the contest. While this looks more impressive then what mario and loz did, a contest should never be considered over after one match given all that can go wrong in said matches.
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transience | Posted 7/14/2006 12:27:05 PM | message detail
for the last month, I've been expecting the Zelda bandwagon to grow. compare:

- a laughable first round opponent in Civilization
- a likely SFF match with MMX
- a definite SFF match with Metroid

compared to:

- an underseeded Diablo series
- a Nintendo series with some strength
- Resident Evil, which I feel is being underestimated

yet Diablo is flat out getting sextupled here. yeah it's probably flopping in some way shape or form, but no one expected this kind of killing. personally, I don't think any series is going to get even close to the Zelda/FF/Mario triumverate and extrapolating through them is kind of useless in that way, but you have to respect 85% and somehow still rising.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 7/14/2006 12:28:38 PM | message detail
But I'm not going to argue this point anymore. Just wait until FF performs in another match before you call the contest over. Tifa vs. Vyse is an extreme example, but hardly one that can never be repeated. Or, you know, diablo might just not be as strong as first thought.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/14/2006 12:32:32 PM | message detail
Or, you know, diablo might just not be as strong as first thought.

Except it doesn't really make any sense for Diablo to be cannon fodder. Sure, you can point to WoW rallying all you want, but Warcraft still keeps that match close without it.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/14/2006 12:32:40 PM | message detail
yet Diablo is flat out getting sextupled here. yeah it's probably flopping in some way shape or form, but no one expected this kind of killing. personally, I don't think any series is going to get even close to the Zelda/FF/Mario triumverate and extrapolating through them is kind of useless in that way, but you have to respect 85% and somehow still rising.

Oh of course. FF is looking damned impressive, it's just that calling a contest after one match is getting ahead of ourselves. I mean, I've now heard it said that loz might only get about 40% on ff. I'd like to at the very least wait a few matches to see how well ff holds up on other opponents.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
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BDawg | Posted 7/14/2006 12:35:05 PM | message detail
CJay should've just put Diablo against all 3: LoZ, SMB, FF. That's the only way I'd take any of this absurd postering seriously. I mean hell I guess Civilization is so crappy FF would score 100/0% against it?
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Should I start running now?
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/14/2006 12:36:16 PM | message detail
At the 15:30 mark, this match has 87801 votes. To compare with other matches at the same time:

Zelda/Civilization - 76535
Mario/Madden - 81610
GTA/Warcraft - 89904
SSB/DQ - 83314

The Legend of Zelda had 68628 individual votes.
Super Mario Brothers had 75466 individual votes.
Final Fantasy has 75359 individual votes.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/14/2006 12:37:38 PM | message detail
I guess Civilization is so crappy FF would score 100/0% against it?

Well, the thing is that it's so hard to increase your percentage at that level. Final Fantasy would only have to net 91-92% to be noticeably above Zelda.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Draco1214 | Posted 7/14/2006 12:38:02 PM | message detail
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 7/14/2006 12:36:16 PM | Message Detail
At the 15:30 mark, this match has 87801 votes. To compare with other matches at the same time:

Zelda/Civilization - 76535
Mario/Madden - 81610
GTA/Warcraft - 89904
SSB/DQ - 83314

The Legend of Zelda had 68628 individual votes.
Super Mario Brothers had 75466 individual votes.
Final Fantasy has 75359 individual votes.


Wow, and the poll started 15 minutes late...0_0
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Tai | Posted 7/14/2006 12:38:23 PM | message detail
FF's the board's favorite. Guess how many picks in the BOP Diablo had? 0. I know, it can't be as easily defended since Slowflake would leave out anyone who had otherwise, but still....

You can't honestly be surprised that everyone will go all-in on the first really impressive beating that FF puts up, can you?
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dragoontheguy | Posted 7/14/2006 12:40:10 PM | message detail
Except it doesn't really make any sense for Diablo to be cannon fodder. Sure, you can point to WoW rallying all you want, but Warcraft still keeps that match close without it.

I don't know, if Tifa could make a fairly consistent character look so weak that she looked to be above the level of mario and samus statistically, why couldn't something odd be happening here? I'm not suggesting FF can't win the contest, or isn't the favourite at this point, I'm suggesting that the contest isn't a lock.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/14/2006 12:40:12 PM | message detail
Also, I'm surprised that nobody is mentioning that Final Fantasy is still going UP against Diablo's day vote.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 12:40:17 PM | message detail
*shakes head and mutters something about Tai*
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/14/2006 12:41:38 PM | message detail
if Tifa could make a fairly consistent character look so weak that she looked to be above the level of mario and samus statistically, why couldn't something odd be happening here?

I think it's rather weak continually falling back on one isolated incident. There's reason to believe that Tifa overperformed on Vyse. I don't see much reason to believe that here.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
TRE Public Account | Posted 7/14/2006 12:42:08 PM | message detail
FF's the board's favorite. Guess how many picks in the BOP Diablo had? 0. I know, it can't be as easily defended since Slowflake would leave out anyone who had otherwise, but still....

IIRC Slowflake didn't reject any brackets this time.
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 7/14/2006 12:42:16 PM | message detail
I want to mention how undeniably badass that picture is again. Cloud, Tidus, and Squall ... that's an all-star group!

Yea, I had a special feeling when I casted my vote.

anyway... I am just scared that Bartz or Cecil will the lone character when it goes against Mario.


KB
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/14/2006 12:43:07 PM | message detail
anyway... I am just scared that Bartz or Cecil will the lone character when it goes against Mario.

If he does that, CJayC will likely compensate by sticking them up against Waluigi, so it's okay.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Yesmar | Posted 7/14/2006 12:43:10 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Yesmar | Posted 7/14/2006 12:44:13 PM | message detail
Ignore my previous post if you saw it before the delete. I misread Leon's post.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/14/2006 12:44:18 PM | message detail
I always argued for Vyse dropping due to a number of reasons, although "RPG SFF" is usually the reason cited there, as FFVII tends to get SFF on so many things nowadays it's ridiculous.

Now there's a thing there...exactly how powerful is the brand of the entire series when it comes to SFF? I know we've had the discussion before, but a potential possibility is that FF is so well-played and well-liked that it can get SFF on an unimaginable number of things...even something like Diablo? ...nah.

<_<

>_>
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