GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 312
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| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/12/2006 9:19:43 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, the match picture says it all to me...this is SSB versus DQ8, and
the results reflect that. Honestly, if SSB had really let this get
below 70%, it would have been in BIG trouble. --- Commit it to memory. |
| transcience | Posted 7/12/2006 9:20:32 PM | message detail |
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More a general questions to everyone, when did SSB go from favorite to not? 1.) Castlevania beat Halo 2.) Sonic destroyed DMC I think SSB is still the favourite, but there's really not much to argue about since we've done that all before. the Sonic > SSB bandwagon started up a few days ago so people are discussing it. --- xyzzy |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 7/12/2006 9:21:03 PM | message detail |
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More a general questions to everyone, when did SSB go from favorite to not? After halo was humiliated by CV many people assumed series with very few games were all going to completely job in this contest. --- When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo {WoT}~> Board 408 |
| Slowflake | Posted 7/12/2006 9:21:06 PM | message detail |
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When the newer series started dropping like flies, and Sonic doing so well on DMC just fueled the fire. Which makes me think, would Diablo be considered a relatively old series because it's been around for a decade, or a new one since it only has two games STILL? (I swear, I'm going to do something I'll regret if their next release is a Warcraft game.) --- Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego |
| Lopen | Posted 7/12/2006 9:21:08 PM | message detail |
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SSB wasn't the favorite since Castlevania thrashed Halo in my books.
Yeah, I went down with my sinking DMC ship, but I knew something wicked was gonna happen. And 71% on DMC is pretty ridiculous, too. Much more impressive than 78% on DQ I'd say. There's no reason to believe DMC is a fodder series. --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/12/2006 9:21:21 PM | message detail |
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And the percentage goes down a little more again. It'll probably go back up the next update. --- SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden |
| SonicRaptor | Posted 7/12/2006 9:21:25 PM | message detail |
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More a general questions to everyone, when did SSB go from favorite to not? It's a weird trend and will be responsible trend for destroying perfect brackets. I think the core of it is the desire to make a risk pick that nobody else makes and benefiting from the stats boost for your bracket. It's happened with Knux/Magus, Ocelot/Pac-Man, Kuja/MH and StarCraft/Halo...everyone wants to guess the next one. This unforunately happens with matches that should be quick guesses one way (Samus/Mario being a perfect example of everyone guessing Samus despite Mario being Nintendo's mascot). --- Current Contest Score: 11/11 Next Winner: Super Smash Bros. I'll just put something to fill another line here. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/12/2006 9:22:36 PM | message detail |
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People didn't 'guess' Samus. No one would have taken her if it hadn't been for the 2k4 stat differential between her and Mario. --- Commit it to memory. |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 7/12/2006 9:22:54 PM | message detail |
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(I swear, I'm going to do something I'll regret if their next release is a Warcraft game.) Or if it's another cash cow mmo that causes them to halt progress on all other games. >_> --- When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo {WoT}~> Board 408 |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 7/12/2006 9:23:20 PM | message detail |
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RANDOM TWO-PACK If this match occured in the series contest, which would you have in your bracket? Warcraft vs. Diablo And let's say the match doesn't take place on a Tuesday --- SpC2k6 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Super Smash Bros. with 75.26% GFK: 26th on the Oracle Leaderboard |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/12/2006 9:23:38 PM | message detail |
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After halo was humiliated by CV many people assumed series with very few games were all going to completely job in this contest. That's not quite right. They were just at a disadvantage because they were relatively new without much fanbase diversity. It didn't mean they weren't going to be strong. It's not like I was saying all along that SSB was going to be weak. I just wasn't entirely sold that it could take on the entire Sonic series essentially relying on one game. --- SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden |
| therealmnm | Posted 7/12/2006 9:24:15 PM | message detail |
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I still say the parallels between Halo and SSB are off base. Halo and
Devil May Cry probably have more in common. Popular games with limited
fanbases (compared to universally played series). SSB may not have the
number of games, but it definitely has the years and the fanbase. It's
definitely a series now, it just doesn't have multiple games out yet.
There's no real reason to whore out the series like Mario Party,
especially given the genre. One game per system is just fine for SSB. --- Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6 Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/12/2006 9:24:32 PM | message detail |
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When did SSB not become the favorite against Sonic? I dunno. Like I've
said before, I'm more arguing out of hope (though I try not to let my
bias cloud my judgement). I still think SSB has the advantage here,
though a disappointing performance would have changed my opinion
drastically. --- Commit it to memory. |
| FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/12/2006 9:25:11 PM | message detail |
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This unforunately happens with matches that should be quick guesses
one way (Samus/Mario being a perfect example of everyone guessing Samus
despite Mario being Nintendo's mascot). I actually agree with that, perhaps not the word guessing, but picking Samus over Mario was in the league of picking Sephiroth over Cloud. I believe both have had matches to suggest that could happen, but it just wouldn't. --- Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 7/12/2006 9:25:11 PM | message detail |
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That's not quite right. They were just at a disadvantage because
they were relatively new without much fanbase diversity. It didn't mean
they weren't going to be strong. It's not like I was saying all along
that SSB was going to be weak. I just wasn't entirely sold that it
could take on the entire Sonic series essentially relying on one game. When I say job, I mean fail miserably in living up to expectations, not necessarily being extremely weak. --- When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo {WoT}~> Board 408 |
| Lopen | Posted 7/12/2006 9:26:02 PM | message detail |
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SSB is only two years older than DMC and Halo, and it has 2 less
releases than DMC. I can't see why you'd consider it more a series than
those two, aside from it being on two systems instead of one. --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/12/2006 9:26:07 PM | message detail |
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SSB may not have the number of games, but it definitely has the years and the fanbase. SSB is limited in the same sense that Halo is limited. It's just stronger. --- SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden |
| rpgapzx | Posted 7/12/2006 9:27:22 PM | message detail |
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| dragoontheguy | Posted 7/12/2006 9:28:21 PM | message detail |
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I actually agree with that, perhaps not the word guessing, but
picking Samus over Mario was in the league of picking Sephiroth over
Cloud. I believe both have had matches to suggest that could happen,
but it just wouldn't. I wouldn't go nearly that far. Samus had outranked mario in every contest IIRC. It was a trend that was hard for many people to ignore. I think it would be more accurate to say that sometimes we just get too caught up in the stats, and forget about other possible factors. Since link failed to ssf samus to any completely overt degree, it was fairly reasonable to assume mario couldn't either. It was an incorrect assumption, but a well founded one. --- When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo {WoT}~> Board 408 |
| rpgapzx | Posted 7/12/2006 9:28:39 PM | message detail |
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FACT or FICTION: If you take out the words Super Smash Brothers out of
this picture, make Dragon Quest's side one of Cloud, Tifa, Vincent,
Sephi, Squall, Auron, Tidus, Sora, Vivi, Crono, Magus, etc,
"Nintendo's" side would win by a comfortable margin(5,000+ votes.) FACT or FICTION. This hypothetical match would break 160k. --- SC2k6: 10/11 Today: Bracket: SSB Vote: SSB |
| therealmnm | Posted 7/12/2006 9:29:07 PM | message detail |
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SSB is limited in the same sense that Halo is limited. It's just stronger. No it is not. Halo lost because it was overrated. We didn't even have that much contest data on it. One match. SSBM had multiple matches in SC2k4 and has proven its strength. I've already gone through this though, so if you still want to disagree with me, it's fine. --- Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6 Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC |
| Slowflake | Posted 7/12/2006 9:29:33 PM | message detail |
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Samus had outranked mario in every contest IIRC. 2002: Only because of VERY arguable Link/Sephiroth transitivity. 2003: ZOMG 0.04% FOR TEH WIN 2004: Okay, that one was totally legit. 2005: No comment. --- Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 7/12/2006 9:32:01 PM | message detail |
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2002: Only because of VERY arguable Link/Sephiroth transitivity. 2003: ZOMG 0.04% FOR TEH WIN 2004: Okay, that one was totally legit. 2005: No comment. I never said it was by much in every contest, just that she did (and by quite a bit in 2k4 I might add)... and why include 2k5 when I was obviously talking about previous contests? --- When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo {WoT}~> Board 408 |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/12/2006 9:32:24 PM | message detail |
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No it is not. Halo lost because it was overrated. On the contrary, I'd tend to believe it's because we underrated the value of this actually being a Series Contest. Halo probably was overrated, but that's not why it lost to Castlevania. --- SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden |
| Slowflake | Posted 7/12/2006 9:32:51 PM | message detail |
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Because I'm still angry at that one. Samus owns all other Nintendo characters AND YOU KNOW IT. --- Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego |
| Draco1214 | Posted 7/12/2006 9:32:59 PM | message detail |
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Even if Halo was overrated, it's had Halo 2 since Spring 2004. --- Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2 |
| BDawg | Posted 7/12/2006 9:33:00 PM | message detail |
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Heh what happens if Nintendo and Sega drop the bombshell that Sonic will be in Brawl during the next week? --- Should I start running now? |
| DBZFIGHTERS | Posted 7/12/2006 9:33:43 PM | message detail |
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Is SSB under or over performing right now? I expected a bigger blow-out, considering what Sonic did yesterday. --- Die hard Cubs, Pistons, Patriot and Maple Leafs fan Owl Squad Member ( ēvē( ēvē )ēvē ) O RLY? |
| Master Moltar | Posted 7/12/2006 9:34:41 PM | message detail |
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Yoshi > Samus, but that's pretty much it. And I'd call this an overperformance. --- Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket. Super Smash Bros. vs. Dragon Quest - Bracket: SSB - Vote: SSB (9/11) |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/12/2006 9:34:48 PM | message detail |
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The thing is, as far as I'm concerned Sonic > Castlevania without a
doubt (this is just my common sense speaking here, if you want to argue
it that's okay, I'll write you off as crazy). Now, assuming nothing went funny in the 128 division at all, Halo is very close to SSBM. Halo gets Halo 2 in this contest, SSBM gets SSB. Contrary to popular belief, the fanbases of both games are more diverse than many credit them for -- many love one and detest the other. So going back to the 128 division, let's say we want to see where the apparent overrating of certain games like GTA, Soul Calibur, Halo, etc., came from...this is assuming no theories a la Chichiri's recency factor, for the sake of argument. If SSB goes out and trashes Sonic next round, I'd be more inclined to put the blame on Starcraft. If Sonic were to whip SSB, I'd be suspicious of a SSBM overperformance on FF7. A close match really wouldn't be conclusive. Not that this is anything but conjecture and speculation, of course. Just something to ponder. --- Commit it to memory. |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 7/12/2006 9:34:58 PM | message detail |
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And for the record, I actually do agree that series =/= games, but I
think if a series has been around for a while, and has sales spanning
over a large period of time, it can ultimately still be very strong. I
fully expect diablo for instance to be relatively strong (although
obviously not enough to avoid being grinded to dust at the hands of ff). --- When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo {WoT}~> Board 408 |
| FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/12/2006 9:35:30 PM | message detail |
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There could have been reasons for Samus > Mario, but not enough for her to overthrow the mascot of nintendo factor. --- Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb |
| SonicRaptor | Posted 7/12/2006 9:36:38 PM | message detail |
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Heh what happens if Nintendo and Sega drop the bombshell that Sonic will be in Brawl during the next week? SSB would get an ungodly boost. --- Current Contest Score: 11/11 Next Winner: Super Smash Bros. I'll just put something to fill another line here. |
| therealmnm | Posted 7/12/2006 9:36:54 PM | message detail |
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The reasoning behind Samus > Mario was pretty simple... In 2k3, Samus went up against Link and performed better than Mario did the previous year, and the vote totals were comparable. That kind of gave the notion that Samus wouldn't be prone to SFF if Link himself couldn't SFF her (of course, this was Wind Waker Link, so maybe that could have been the cause?). And if she was SFF'd by Link, that would mean that the gap between Mario and Samus would have looked greater. In 2k4, Mario bombed against Crono while Samus was a beast in that contest and ended up with 40% on Cloud. Of course the Mario/Crono thing was probably a one-time fluke to rid us of the Mario/Crono drama. But it still was a viable reason for Samus backers. Plus, Mario simply had not been impressive at all in these contests before 2k4 outside of his battles against Crono. Really, SFF was the main reason why people took Mario. --- Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6 Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 7/12/2006 9:37:15 PM | message detail |
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Is SSB under or over performing right now? It really depends on how wea you think dq is. I think it's doing well enough to put to rest any thoughts of it jobbing to sonic, although sonic can still win. --- When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo {WoT}~> Board 408 |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/12/2006 9:38:13 PM | message detail |
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Samus owns all other Nintendo characters except for Luigi, Kirby,
Diddy Kong, Mallow, Mario, Yoshi, Bowser, Wario, Link, Donkey Kong, Fox
McCloud, Falco Lombardi, Leon Powalski, Wolf O'Donnell, Meta-Knight,
and possibly some others that I'm forgetting about, AND YOU KNOW IT. Fixed. --- SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden |
| therealmnm | Posted 7/12/2006 9:38:48 PM | message detail |
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*before 2k5 --- Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6 Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC |
| transcience | Posted 7/12/2006 9:39:05 PM | message detail |
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I'd be more inclined to put the blame on Starcraft. If Sonic were to
whip SSB, I'd be suspicious of a SSBM overperformance on FF7. I'd think about Sonic vs. Mario before I thought of FF7. why exactly did SSBM overperform on FF7? --- xyzzy |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/12/2006 9:40:18 PM | message detail |
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why exactly did SSBM overperform on FF7? Why did Magus overperform on Link? Why did Frog overperform on Solid Snake? Why did Bowser and Ganondorf overperform on Sephiroth? --- SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden |
| Master Moltar | Posted 7/12/2006 9:40:46 PM | message detail |
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Good catch Leon, I forgot about Kirby. Also Ganondorf, but that's it. And simply, if you looked at the stats, you went with Samus, if you used common sense thinking Mario would SFF Samus, you picked Mario. --- Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket. Super Smash Bros. vs. Dragon Quest - Bracket: SSB - Vote: SSB (9/11) |
| YoFedor33 | Posted 7/12/2006 9:41:06 PM | message detail |
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I definitely think Super Smash Bros. is overperforming. This is VERY
impressive thus far. I'd never have Dragon Quest losing to something
like Suikoden, and Mega Man X could only muster 72% against that
series. Things are looking pretty good for Smash. Also, while we've all exclusively been talking about the strength of older series, it should be noted that every Nintendo series sans Kirby has been impressive so far. --- Board 8: Where people treat each other right. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/12/2006 9:41:07 PM | message detail |
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We threw around the idea of SSBM overperforming on FF7 as opposed to
Starcraft being the reason for overratedness as a potential explanation
for GTA's apparent overratedness. Honestly it's hard to tell though,
because aside from that the major players that SSBM beat that weren't
behind Starcraft are grouped in with stronger games here (FFX, MGS2). --- Commit it to memory. |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 7/12/2006 9:43:16 PM | message detail |
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why exactly did SSBM overperform on FF7? Normally I'd say squeenix and nintendo characters and games by virtue of being the two most popular companies in these contests tend to have the weaker contestant of the two companies overperforming, but what's happening right now kind of makes my point look ridiculous. Maybe it only applies to things belonging to the square side of the company? --- When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo {WoT}~> Board 408 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/12/2006 9:44:42 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, I don't know why you'd group Enix in there. Honestly, as far as
GameFAQs is concerned they're still two completely different entities. --- Commit it to memory. |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/12/2006 9:45:22 PM | message detail |
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Being Squeenix certainly didn't do Star Ocean any favors. --- SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden |
| therealmnm | Posted 7/12/2006 9:45:48 PM | message detail |
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And simply, if you looked at the stats, you went with Samus, if you
used common sense thinking Mario would SFF Samus, you picked Mario. But the thing was, Link/Samus kinda disputed that "common sense". Basically, it was more of a gut-feeling thing. People still haven't been able to explain why Mario was able to beat Samus by almost the same amount that Link did (dedicated Metroid fanbase giving her at least 37% in any match?) --- Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6 Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC |
| FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/12/2006 9:45:59 PM | message detail |
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Yoshi > Samus, but that's pretty much it. <3 --- Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb |
| Lopen | Posted 7/12/2006 9:46:00 PM | message detail |
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If Sonic stomps SSBM, I don't necessarily think that means SSBM
overpreformed on anything. Maybe it just means that people don't give
small recent series as much weight as larger older series. I know all these flopping series are tied together through SSBM in the games contest, but I really just think you're taking the easy way out by calling this a SSBM overpreformance on FF7. There doesn't always have to be a statistical reason for things. --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| rpgapzx | Posted 7/12/2006 9:46:00 PM | message detail |
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For the people who claimed SSB over performed on FFVII, what are you
expecting SSB to get on 7? 62/38 seems pretty convincing already.
Surely you wouldn't expect a doubling? Admittedly, all we have to compare it to are SFF and maybe SFF affairs(MGS) and the powerhouses, OoT and CT. --- SC2k6: 10/11 Today: Bracket: SSB Vote: SSB |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/12/2006 9:47:36 PM | message detail |
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Hey, I'm only suggesting the overperformance for the sake of a
statistical argument. Honestly, Chichiri's theory probably makes a
heckuva lot more sense, but it basically leaves us with no conclusions
to draw. --- Commit it to memory. |