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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 311

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HaRRicH | Posted 7/11/2006 8:55:22 PM | message detail
GTA:VC VERSUS HALO 2 HOLY MACARLLESZ
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/11/2006 8:55:24 PM | message detail
I don't think there will be a topic.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
creativename | Posted 7/11/2006 8:55:39 PM | message detail
You know, Halo vs. GTA would be pretty awesome actually :)
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 8:55:39 PM | message detail
I seriously doubt a CJayC topic at this point. Feel free to laugh if we get one.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/11/2006 8:56:16 PM | message detail
Ultimaterializer: Ceej hasn't mentioned anything about cheating to you at all?
Ultimaterializer: Aside from Luster/EC/Sess getting axed, duh.
Devin: We talked earlier
Devin: Just said that a bunch of people were axed for it
Devin: And that's that
Devin: Unless they decide to try it again
Ultimaterializer: I know there was mass cheating for GTA.
Devin: I noticed
Devin: Sucks that GTA is losing though >_<
Ultimaterializer: But it's odd that it wouldn't go both ways.
Devin: Heh
Ultimaterializer: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2434&sort=time&type=ASC
Ultimaterializer: Odd spikes for Warcraft ALL OVER the place.
Devin: Yeah
Devin: CJayC (23:53:51): There were just as many "spikes" for GTA, if you could call them that.
Ultimaterializer: Awesome, so the match stands.
Ultimaterializer: I'll ignore my hate of WoW and just be happy that WC2/3 got their time in the sun :-)

And that's that. Yay Warcraft 3! <3

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 8:56:38 PM | message detail
Well, if we get a topic that says something other than "Blah blah no stuffing blah blah I was watching blah blah"
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Yesmar | Posted 7/11/2006 8:57:54 PM | message detail
I'm hoping we get a CJay topic even if there is no cheating. We got one after Starcraft/WW, albeit that was a far more dramatic match.
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"Dropo! You're the laziest man on Mars."
longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/11/2006 8:58:27 PM | message detail
What happens if the next big-time match is Halo/GTA?! WELL I GUESS YOU'RE SCREWED THEN HUH

DAMNIT KARMA HUNTER COME OVER HERE

*Tazzmission*

<_<
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
JUST LIKE UR MOM LOLO AND URS TO LALA-Tombolo
dethfdddddh | Posted 7/11/2006 9:00:08 PM | message detail
Any one want to guess the order of the Blizzard hierarchy?
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Just Got Owned By Guru winner Voltch.
Master Moltar | Posted 7/11/2006 9:00:23 PM | message detail
Sonic the Hedgehog 82.91% 97
Devil May Cry 17.09% 20
TOTAL VOTES 117

Ownt
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Sonic vs. Devil May Cry - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (8/10)
HaRRicH | Posted 7/11/2006 9:00:26 PM | message detail
http://tinyurl.com/he6e6

It doesn't say anything about the size of its forum, but it's worth a look. The graph shows how popular GameFAQs, WorldOfWarcraft.com, HBO, and DiabloII.net have been in the past year, and WoW's site is on par with GameFAQs in it.
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Janus5000 | Posted 7/11/2006 9:01:12 PM | message detail
Sonic the Hedgehog 80% 8
Devil May Cry 20% 2
TOTAL VOTES 10

Hah, CV over Halo was a bigger upset.

...Edouble missed it. =(
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
Master Moltar | Posted 7/11/2006 9:01:13 PM | message detail
33.94% with WC, wow, 3rd lowest predicted R1 match of evar
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Sonic vs. Devil May Cry - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (8/10)
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/11/2006 9:01:15 PM | message detail
From dethfdddddh Posted 7/12/2006 12:00:08 AM #109
Any one want to guess the order of the Blizzard hierarchy?

I still say it's Starcraft > Diablo >>> Warcraft.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/11/2006 9:01:28 PM | message detail
Six zero brackets left indeed.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/11/2006 9:02:53 PM | message detail
Wow, a tripling already and Sonic's usually bad with the night vote.

Not that trends have mattered, but large fluctuations in percentage haven't happened much either.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 9:04:25 PM | message detail
Let's see if it stabilizes. If Sonic can somehow keep it above 70%, SSB may be in for the fight of its life even if it's as strong as we think.
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creativename | Posted 7/11/2006 9:04:46 PM | message detail
Sonic looking good for a tripling here.

And I wouldn't be surprised if Diablo was stronger than Starcraft. (as a "series" - in terms of games, I could see Diablo II > Starcraft)
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cyko | Posted 7/11/2006 9:05:01 PM | message detail
egads!! is that one of HM's alts on the Top 50!?!

43 Itsgoingdown 10 Metal Gear

also, how the **** did this happen:

45 lastofCLEFT 10 Fire Emblem


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creativename | Posted 7/11/2006 9:05:31 PM | message detail
I'd expect Starcraft > Warcraft but if so it wouldn't be by too much.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/11/2006 9:05:57 PM | message detail
Sonic's still got the tripling! Whoo-hoo!

All right, let's say that Sonic does better against DMC than SSB does against DQ. Then what do you guys think about their match?
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
charmander6000 | Posted 7/11/2006 9:06:42 PM | message detail
Even though I loved DMC, I just love Sonic much more and it deserves to be winning this much.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 7/11/2006 9:06:49 PM | message detail
All round one matches with <50% Prediction Percentage:

1. StarCraft over Halo: 24.09%
2. Castlevania over Halo: 31.49%
3. WarCraft over Grand Theft Auto 33.94%
4. Knuckles over Magus: 35.08%
5. Vivi over Donkey Kong: 35.13%
6. Tommy Vercetti over Kefka: 37.66%
7. Pac-Man over Revolver Ocelot: 38.36%
8. Master Hand over Kuja: 39.11%
9. Shadow over Wario: 42.10%
10. Morrigan over Spyro: 42.30%
11 KOS-MOS over Crash: 42.50%
12. Knuckles over Kefka: 43.05%
13. Kefka over Pac-Man 43.50%
14. Leon Kennedy over Gordon Freeman: 43.62%
15. Tina Armstrong over Gordon Freeman: 43.70%
16. Frog over Liquid Snake: 44.33%
17. Kingdom Hearts over Soul Calibur: 45.45%
18. Miles "Tails" Prower over Viewtiful Joe: 46.30%
19. Zero over Scorpion: 47.30%
20. Ganondorf over Tidus: 47.70%
21. Super Mario RPG over Street Fighter II: 47.83%
22. XenoGears over Pokemon G/S/C: 48.20%
23. Diablo over Ridley: 48.32%
24. Ryu Hayabusa over Jill Valentine: 48.56%

The 2nd and 3rd hardest to predict first round matches in one contest is pretty good, even if this is kinda like the second round.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 9:06:57 PM | message detail
Sonic does better against DMC than SSB does against DQ, SSB is screwed. Plain and simple.
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/11/2006 9:06:59 PM | message detail
I'd say it means nothing. You can't define anything by fodder Leonhart.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
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arkenaga | Posted 7/11/2006 9:07:22 PM | message detail
Most Ironic Account Name Banned: "SC2K6Champ".

XD Ceej.
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Arkenaga|aganekrA
FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/11/2006 9:07:45 PM | message detail
Well, I'm sure we'd automatically click to Sonic thwomping SSB, even though we've never seen anything DragonQuest in a contest. (semi ?)


*mumbles something about that's why kh is still going to crush metal gear*

>_>
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creativename | Posted 7/11/2006 9:07:59 PM | message detail
Sonic got the board vote and bracket vote so he'll probably go down overnight. He'll stay above 70% almost for sure though. And a fair bet for the tripling.

All right, let's say that Sonic does better against DMC than SSB does against DQ. Then what do you guys think about their match?

I fully expect Dragon Quest to overperform, and I thought Sonic would do real good here. But while I don't think that match is a given, I think SSB should still be the favorite.
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 9:08:15 PM | message detail
Sonic is weak, guys!

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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/11/2006 9:08:17 PM | message detail
Most Ironic Account Name Banned: "SC2K6Champ".

Is that EC? I've seen that account around before.

Also, even Ceej admits Warcraft stands no chance against Mario!
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/11/2006 9:09:24 PM | message detail
I'd say it means nothing. You can't define anything by fodder Leonhart.

*sighs* Of course not. How stupid of me to think DMC wasn't fodder.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
creativename | Posted 7/11/2006 9:10:45 PM | message detail
The 2nd and 3rd hardest to predict first round matches in one contest is pretty good, even if this is kinda like the second round.

And people were complaining about how predictable it was :) I didn't see CV coming but I figured there were a bunch of matches that were unpredictable, including yesterday, and MM vs. MK, SF vs. RE (maybe even TES), Sonic vs. SSB, Halo vs. KH (CV now), and LoZ vs. FF.

For a 32 entrant thing that's not bad.
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 7/11/2006 9:11:09 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
9------3079----39.5582981
8------14137---34.0029709
7------16723---32.4224122
6------8458----33.4003310
5------2793----34.8370927
4------709-----38.0818054
3------145-----44.1379310
2------60------63.3333333
1------71------66.1971831
0------23------73.9130435

Ouch. Only 6 0s left. Except for the 2s and lower all the groups did roughly equal. Interestingly the perfects did better than most groups. It's probably because if you are perfect right now you were more likely to take other upsets.

32 people fell off the Top 50 today. That's one less than the number than fell off after Halo went down. Edouble242, HolyExcalibur, MadGamer_11, 0___o, ProfessorBen, RPGuy96, chris1815, GrapefruitKing, Kegger9, TSKaplan, Neo_Strife100, Lightbearer75, mister_flare, CokesACola, LessThan3Presea, Jericoholic913, maddzkiddz3, LacusClyneFan, the7joker7, HoboMafiaChild, StarvingWriter, etrnalswordsman, NikoreJM, munkyman720, Rockin_Steve, forcedreg13, VooDooLechuck, PaladinOfPride, SineNomine, RockMFR, JonthePenguin and MasterStryke all had GTA winning but it didn't come through.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 9:11:15 PM | message detail
Thing is, if you take away those fraudulent votes and hold this match on another day, it's probably dead-even.

Tuesday pushed WarCraft over the top mirite??? *gets shot*
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arkenaga | Posted 7/11/2006 9:11:25 PM | message detail
Yeah, Leon, that was EC. XD

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Cavalier Lowen | Posted 7/11/2006 9:12:12 PM | message detail
Looks like I was right about the CJay sticky, although I admit I didn't get what I was hoping for.
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Phediuk | Posted 7/11/2006 9:12:24 PM | message detail
Holy Christ at these vote totals. These are even higher than yesterday's. o_O
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cyko | Posted 7/11/2006 9:12:28 PM | message detail
well, then after today's craptacular match of Sonic pounding DMC, that makes 5 out of 11 matches where i've been off by over 12% on my prediction......

-_-

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Master Moltar | Posted 7/11/2006 9:13:23 PM | message detail
Dead-even? More like GTA wins with no more than 53%!
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Sonic vs. Devil May Cry - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (8/10)
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/11/2006 9:13:37 PM | message detail
These are even higher than yesterday's. o_O

The WoW players hung around to vote for Sonic!
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
creativename | Posted 7/11/2006 9:13:54 PM | message detail
Thing is, if you take away those fraudulent votes and hold this match on another day, it's probably dead-even.

You mean, add back in the fraudulent votes, I think.
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MasterOfHunters | Posted 7/11/2006 9:14:45 PM | message detail
I still say it's Starcraft > Diablo >>> Warcraft.

Warcraft was comparable to Diablo even before WOW imo. Starcraft = Warcraft > Diablo until SC2 comes out.
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creativename | Posted 7/11/2006 9:15:21 PM | message detail
Tuesday pushed WarCraft over the top mirite??? *gets shot*

This is very possible though. Hard to say.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 9:16:59 PM | message detail
Bah, I read that wrong...that's a helluva lot of votes from alts though. o.O

Tuesday might've still done it...looks like I can rub this in tranny's face for a while! I'll have to take up goading him full-time in EC's absence, after all!!
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/11/2006 9:17:57 PM | message detail
This crossed my mind...but, seeing how GTA did against WC, let's have Warcraft in another match on a Tuesday...and have it face Castlevania or Kingdom Hearts. Does anybody feel like those matches would have gone any differently?
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/11/2006 9:18:47 PM | message detail
Also, did the 600 votes get removed? I missed that part.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/11/2006 9:19:19 PM | message detail
There was no indication that votes got removed.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 9:19:23 PM | message detail
If they didn't, someone subtract them and figure out the percentage.

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Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/11/2006 9:20:09 PM | message detail
Message From JDMS at 2006-07-11 11:47:12
Hopefully you get this feedback ticket today...

I'm not 100% sure, but it looks like there MIGHT be extensive vote stuffing in the current match (GTA vs Warcraft). Watching the updates, there have been some strange fluctuations, and lead cuts have been very inconsistent over very short periods of time. The whole thing reminds me of Vercetti vs Kefka a little bit. Anyway, if you could just check it out, that'd be good. I'm sure you would have anyway, but it seems better to check it out sooner rather than an hour before the match is over, so I thought I'd bring it to your attention now.

Message From GameFAQs at 2006-07-11 17:16:43
Attempts at vote-stuffing are carefully monitored, not counted in the results, and several overwhelmingly guilty parties have already been axed.
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MasterOfHunters | Posted 7/11/2006 9:20:18 PM | message detail
I'd expect Starcraft > Warcraft but if so it wouldn't be by too much.

Probably. I think their strength is about even, but the SFF would most likely favor Starcraft. Plus starcraft fans are probably the better vote stuffers.
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