GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 310
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| MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/11/2006 12:36:13 PM | message detail |
| Warcraft is gaining BIG now. |
| Tequilla Gundam | Posted 7/11/2006 12:37:22 PM | message detail |
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Perhaps we need to stop linking stats together through transitivity or
any other process? There are way too many foreign factors that can
influence any given match. --- Feel my truth. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 12:39:07 PM | message detail |
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I have considered SSBM being the overrating factor in place of
StarCraft -- STRONGLY -- but this is the first piece of evidence I can
even see toward that idea. It also seems to contradict common wisdom, I
mean... Is Final Fantasy Tactics the third strongest FF game????? --- Commit it to memory. |
| Slowflake | Posted 7/11/2006 12:40:40 PM | message detail |
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MGS doing so well in the top 10 seems to indicate it's not entirely impossible. --- Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 12:40:54 PM | message detail |
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GTA has just rolled over and died now. This one is finished. --- Commit it to memory. |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 7/11/2006 12:41:45 PM | message detail |
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Hehe. RPGuy96 | Posted 5/8/2006 11:41:28 AM | message detail BOLD STATEMENT! The Castlevania series will be the strongest non Noble Nine (LoZ, FF, Mario, MGS, Metroid, Mega Man, Sonic, Chrono) series. And it could challenge the last three series on that list, even. GTA tanked, Halo tanked, KH isn't looking too good...only Smash Bros. stands in my way. --- "It's two children and a duck. Be careful!" ~ Leo, Suikoden III |
| Tai | Posted 7/11/2006 12:42:12 PM | message detail |
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Damnit. Why did George Romero have to pop his little head back into this again? Grr. :-| --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579987 - Wanna report a TOS violation! Go to Snack Attack and we can help! |
| SonicRaptor | Posted 7/11/2006 12:43:02 PM | message detail |
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GTA has just rolled over and died now. This one is finished. Indeed, WarCraft is just slowly gaining now and I doubt it'll stop in the next 8 hours of the poll. --- "Never argue with a fool, people may not tell the difference" - Murphy's Law |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 12:43:17 PM | message detail |
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It's not impossible by any stretch of the imagination, but it seems
highly improbable...I for one would have never imagined it, not in a
million years. I think the biggest thing to look out for is to see how SSB itself does against Sonic. If, after all our confidence, Sonic actually just rolls over SSB, I think that's a really big feather in that cap. --- Commit it to memory. |
| Tai | Posted 7/11/2006 12:50:29 PM | message detail |
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Omg, GTA won an update! D: --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579987 - Wanna report a TOS violation! Go to Snack Attack and we can help! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 12:51:15 PM | message detail |
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The other games behind SSBM (but not StarCraft): Final Fantasy X Final Fantasy Tactics Advance GTA: Vice City Star Wars: KotOR Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty Fire Emblem Shenmue FFX is grouped in with tournament favorite FF, so that's going to be no indication. FFTA is the same, although if FFT had made it...well, it would basically be running on FFT alone. Vice City was supposed to be very strong, and the List and past polls were supposed to indicate San Andreas and potentially GTA3 were even stronger. Together, they should have been massive, and yet they're in the middle of ChokeTA right now. KotOR is not in this contest, and we only have optional fan-favorite HK-47 as a point of reference for how well it did. For what it's worth, HK-47 was fodder. MGS2 is grouped in with MG, and with things like MGS there it'll be hard to gauge MGS2's influence. Fire Emblem *did* beat Silent Hill, but that's been one of the most unimpressive series we've had here. We might be able to draw some conclusions after MG/FE. lol shenmue =( --- Commit it to memory. |
| Stiffy1624 | Posted 7/11/2006 12:52:37 PM | message detail |
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Make that two wins in a row for the GTA. I hope this is the start of an improving trend. --- "Two wrongs make it even, You can mark my words"-InMemory Impossible is Nothing |
| SonicRaptor | Posted 7/11/2006 12:53:28 PM | message detail |
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I think the biggest thing to look out for is to see how SSB itself
does against Sonic. If, after all our confidence, Sonic actually just
rolls over SSB, I think that's a really big feather in that cap. I really can't understand where all this Sonic support is coming from. FFX would walk over Sonic yet it was only edged out by SSBM. --- "Never argue with a fool, people may not tell the difference" - Murphy's Law |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 12:55:05 PM | message detail |
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You think FFX would beat the entire Sonic series? I'm not so quick to say that. The thing that supports the claim are the X-Stats, and that's what is being questioned now. --- Commit it to memory. |
| Tequilla Gundam | Posted 7/11/2006 12:56:59 PM | message detail |
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Anybody have a list of 5 minute updates won by each competitor? --- Feel my truth. |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 7/11/2006 12:58:34 PM | message detail |
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FFX would walk over Sonic Didn't every Sonic character destroy every FFX character (except for Auron/Tails, which was still pretty close I believe)? --- - "ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune Not changing signature until HHH pedigrees Candice through a table. 07/07/06 |
| Tai | Posted 7/11/2006 1:00:26 PM | message detail |
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Anybody have a list of 5 minute updates won by each competitor? http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2434 --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579987 - Wanna report a TOS violation! Go to Snack Attack and we can help! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 1:01:52 PM | message detail |
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Auron nearly doubled Tails. =( Tidus also beat Shadow. However, Sonic has always been stronger than Auron, Knuckles > Yuna in 2k3 and Knuckles/Shadow would probably be stronger than Tidus now thanks to the Sonic boost. Tails might give Rikku a match. --- Commit it to memory. |
| SonicRaptor | Posted 7/11/2006 1:03:46 PM | message detail |
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Another point I just remembered. Remember when SMW absolutely crushed Sonic 2? Would that have any relevance? --- "Never argue with a fool, people may not tell the difference" - Murphy's Law |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 1:05:13 PM | message detail |
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Another point I just remembered. Remember when SMW absolutely crushed Sonic 2? Would that have any relevance? Yes, I think we can all agree SMB will beat Sonic. Oh, and I was underestimating Tails...with the boost, he'd probably be the favorite against Rikku, more of a match for Yuna. --- Commit it to memory. |
| andaca | Posted 7/11/2006 1:11:00 PM | message detail |
| Starcraft's cheating, no matter how you look at it, could at its worst have overrated half its division by a percent or so each. Seeing how it appears that almost everything from the 128-bit division we've seen has come up a bit short of expectation, even in SSBM's half of the bracket, SSBM over-performing would make a hell of a lot more sense. |
| Big Bob | Posted 7/11/2006 1:11:09 PM | message detail |
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You know, something tells me not all this would have happened had Ulti
not bashed every Warcraft supporter in his analysis. All that talk
about rallying being meaningless and that GTA would be the fourth
strongest series almost seemed like a challenge to forumgoers. I'd say
Ulti deserves the retaliation after trying to make everyone who picked
WC>GTA look like an idiot. Of course, I'm not one of the ralliers... --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v674/ImBigBob/PokemonvsMetroid.jpg |
| voltch | Posted 7/11/2006 1:11:39 PM | message detail |
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Ceej should make a GTA/Halo match one day. although there would probably be mass banning due to each series's fanboys invading each other's boards. --- Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft. BrentfordFC-championship here we come |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 1:14:09 PM | message detail |
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GTA is the only part of the puzzle so far that isn't linked through
StarCraft. If SSB ends up impressing, it'll be hard to shift the blame
on it. --- Commit it to memory. |
| steve illumina | Posted 7/11/2006 1:15:24 PM | message detail |
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You know, something tells me not all this would have happened had
Ulti not bashed every Warcraft supporter in his analysis. All that talk
about rallying being meaningless and that GTA would be the fourth
strongest series almost seemed like a challenge to forumgoers. I'd say
Ulti deserves the retaliation after trying to make everyone who picked
WC>GTA look like an idiot. Seeing this makes it even sweeter if this is actually true...since I did not read Ulti's analysis. If it is true...all I can say is...you should have read MY satirical analysis...for even though I bust and bash and pick on all sorts of things, deep within the core of it all is the logical truth that has won me so many fans, including Ceej himself :) --- Steve Illumina: 'Sage of Board 8', Adored by Elites, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by Girly Gamers! |
| rpgapzx | Posted 7/11/2006 1:15:50 PM | message detail |
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Series that have disappointed: Star Ocean (34-66 to Pokemon) Kirby(29-71 to Metroid, SFF?) Soul Calibur (30-70 to MG) Halo (45-55 to CV) GTA (59-51 to WC) Series that have surprised: Metroid(71-29 over Kirby, SFF?) MG (70-30 over SC) CV (55-45 over Halo) WC (51-49 over GTA) |
| longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/11/2006 1:16:23 PM | message detail |
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GTA can catchup if it friggin tries. --- WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa JUST LIKE UR MOM LOLO AND URS TO LALA-Tombolo |
| steve illumina | Posted 7/11/2006 1:16:32 PM | message detail |
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Halo would beat GTA straight up with 55%. --- Steve Illumina: 'Sage of Board 8', Adored by Elites, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by Girly Gamers! |
| Lopen | Posted 7/11/2006 1:18:33 PM | message detail |
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Holy crap, this match is now ~11500 votes ahead of Castlevania/Halo. What if some of this is rallying (I'm still not convinced it's all rallying), and what if some of the ralliers keep coming back? That would throw things off a bit, no? Eh... probably not enough to make a difference. --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| Canadian Carnage | Posted 7/11/2006 1:19:05 PM | message detail |
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Im going off on a tangent about the current match. Ive been following the matches, and yes, I predicted most of them right. I knew, ever since most of the posts yesterday, that WC would pull a tight win/loss against GTA. My opinion on vote stuffing. Dont be surprised if votes by the plenty are shot out on both sides. Thats all I have to say about that. Now, for all of you GTA fanboys, not fans, which I am one but still voted for WC, fanboys. The WC community was HUGE, even before WoW which dragged in the MMORPG regulars. WC has made a name for itself, and yes, although it did help make SC, if WC1 and WC2 didnt do as well as they did, there would be no SC, probably a lack of a Blizzard to speak of. WC has a huge base, and unlike people who own GTA, its easy to grab in voters all around the net for WC. This one is coming down to the wire folks, which makes it exciting. I will respect whoever wins. I like both series after all. My opinion and I'm stickin' to it. --- "NO CLOUD IS NOT IN THE GAME, GO AWAY" - pictish freak |
| Layzerbeam | Posted 7/11/2006 1:19:20 PM | message detail |
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GTA (59-51 to WC) You gotta go out there and give 110%. --- ROCKET TROUSERS! im not making these lies up ~ ertyu |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 1:19:29 PM | message detail |
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Though this is certainly the first indication of the list not being the
be-all, end-all of things, at least for a series contest. GTA simply
outclassed WarCraft in every respect there, and it didn't count for
jack in the end. This is why I'm beginning to doubt SSB's strength as
well. It has generational disadvantage against Sonic, but without the
benefit of recency (a la KH2). --- Commit it to memory. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 1:21:02 PM | message detail |
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This one ain't coming down to the wire. It'll be close, but unless there was notable cheating, GTA loses. --- Commit it to memory. |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/11/2006 1:21:51 PM | message detail |
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This contest has been giving me the feeling that we don't even have a
day/night vote anymore. Halo failed to capitalize on the day vote
first, now GTA has. Friggen weird. --- Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris Detective in Sir Chris' Police |
| Meteorush | Posted 7/11/2006 1:22:11 PM | message detail |
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Just like in Kefka/Vercetti, Kefka starts to just pull away and
everyone assumes it's over. Awww... then *BOOM TOUGH ACTIN' TINACTIN*
CJayC to the rescue. >_> --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 1:23:30 PM | message detail |
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Then how come Metal Gear still loses percentage during the day? Huh? Is
it just so Castlevania fans can laugh at me while I get kicked in the
balls?! ARGH --- Commit it to memory. |
| Tai | Posted 7/11/2006 1:26:03 PM | message detail |
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1400+ for Warcraft. :( Wow. --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579987 - Wanna report a TOS violation! Go to Snack Attack and we can help! |
| Master Moltar | Posted 7/11/2006 1:29:02 PM | message detail |
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Actually, after Vercetti began to pull away after getting the lead,
Kefka just came charging back at an insane rate. As soon as it was
about to take the lead again, Ceej stepped in. --- Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket. Grand Theft Auto vs. Warcraft - Bracket: GTA - Vote: GTA (8/9) |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/11/2006 1:30:43 PM | message detail |
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Kefka/Vercetti stood out in my mind more as an oddity than this does.
Of course, this still stands out, but for what is probably a different
reason. BTW, anyone who doesn't ralize this yet should know: Vercetti started his come back as early as 6 am last year. All GTA has done today since that same time is hold it pretty even. Of course, despite some flip-flops, Vercetti didn't actually take control of the match until an hour after the poll is going to end tonight. It's not too early to throw in the towel, really. GTA has a shot, but it's slim at this point. --- Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris Detective in Sir Chris' Police |
| rpgapzx | Posted 7/11/2006 1:31:19 PM | message detail |
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For everyone automatically clamoring that Div 128 is overrated as a whole... I think we're jumping to conclusions. True, if I had the chance to redo my bracket today, I'd carefully look at any point where I used SpC2k4 in my analysis. However, it's not as simple as "SSBM's division is tanking!" If we take our Div 128 competitors that have supposedly *underperformed* thus far this contest and examine one-by-one, the results still seem inconclusive: Fire Emblem: Beat Silent Hill 57-43. Nothing out of the ordinary. Perhaps a few points lower than expectations of the 60-40 or more, but nothing out of the ordinary. Halo: This is the one I really can't explain and tends to lend the most credibility for at least Starcraft overrating things on its side. I'm going to mull this one over. Kingdom Hearts: This is the one that perplexes me the most. Why is everyone clamoring for KH's head because of a 73/27 result? Sora didn't even do this well against Agent 47, and while you can't simply compare Harvest Moon to Agent 47, on similar footings, HM would 60/40(at minimum) it in a heart beat. His performance. Wait at least until we get to the 2nd round before jumping to conclusions.. It won't really matter. KH will do to CV at least what Sora did to Alucard, perhaps exposing Halo even more. It's kind of funny, the better KH does to validate itself and prove Starcraft's side being entirely weak, the weaker its going to make Halo look. GTA: There are a number of things we have yet to see. We have yet to see the final tally. Granted, any loss my GTA today will be a disappointment. We have yet to see any votes removed from either side. However, even if votes are not removed, GTA's "weak" performance today isn't necessarily evidence for SSBM's "overperforming against FF7." GTA has amassed an incredible number of votes for a losing side. In fact, with about 7 hours to go, GTA has already matched Halo's total, our next closest match thus far. We gave credit to Zelda last year after putting up amazing votals in a loss last year. Why not again here? This is to say nothing of the inherent strength of WC. Heck, we still have to see how SSB does. Don't call for the tanking of its division before you've even seen it in action. --- SC2k6: 9/9 Leaderboard #7: ProfessorBen Today: Bracket: GTA Vote: Warcraft |
| andaca | Posted 7/11/2006 1:32:38 PM | message detail |
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GTA is the only part of the puzzle so far that isn't linked through
StarCraft. If SSB ends up impressing, it'll be hard to shift the blame
on it. FFX is also suspiciously close to FF7 considering the relative strengths of its characters, as mentioned earlier. As for every other series in consideration on both sides of 128, we haven't really seen much else that could confirm or disprove anything. Again, even assuming 5000+ cheat votes for Starcraft it still does very little to the overall strength of its division. Either the transitive nature of the Stats is even more ridiculously skewed than we thought, or there is some other factor explaining away the 128 division's strength. Starcraft's cheating, in of itself, doesn't come anywhere close. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 1:33:33 PM | message detail |
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You forgot Soul Calibur's disappointing performance, and I for one
would take Hitman to beat HM with at least 55%. It has a fanbase,
y'know. --- Commit it to memory. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 1:35:08 PM | message detail |
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FF6 is even closer to FF7 than FFX, and its characters are about as weak as you get. I can't buy that. --- Commit it to memory. |
| andaca | Posted 7/11/2006 1:35:25 PM | message detail |
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Don't call for the tanking of its division before you've even seen it in action. I don't think people are calling for a tanking of the division, but the division does seem weaker than the xstats predicted. Not by enough to relegate Halo and the like down to fodder level, of course, but at the very least to knock them down by a reasonable amount. |
| transience | Posted 7/11/2006 1:35:43 PM | message detail |
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*wakes up* hmm.. ridiculous vote totals, Warcraft maintaining a small lead and increasing it slowly... yeah, I'd say this match is over. GTA has a chance to come back, but with a match this close Warcraft can rally for whatever it needs. if this gets close at the end, Warcraft's gonna go Starcraft on it. ugh, I dislike rallying. at least it's a close match though. GTA flat-out bombed; we all knew that WC would have rallying power, it just wasn't going to be enough. it should have won this match by 20-30000 votes. there hasn't been 30,000 rallied votes. what'll be interesting is Mario/WC. I'd like to see WC go nuts and win that. --- xyzzy |
| rpgapzx | Posted 7/11/2006 1:36:38 PM | message detail |
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and I would contend Harvest Moon's fanbase to be bigger. --- SC2k6: 9/9 Leaderboard #7: ProfessorBen Today: Bracket: GTA Vote: Warcraft |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/11/2006 1:37:12 PM | message detail |
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"or there is some other factor explaining away the 128 division's strength." It's because all of the games were new, except Starcraft. None of them were so old that they weren't fresh in people's minds. Plus, more people were likely to be here because of those games than the older ones (with a few exceptions). Div 128 is slightly overrated by it all ismply being new. Those games have reason to lose strength, the older games had already lost what they were going to. Simple enough, isn't it? --- Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris Detective in Sir Chris' Police |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/11/2006 1:39:24 PM | message detail |
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"FF6 is even closer to FF7 than FFX, and its characters are about as weak as you get." Have you been away from GF for awhile? FF6 ranked high in the top 10 because the people who support it do so highly. In terms of the general FF fanbase, though, it already lost a lot of ground to FFX. I wouldn't be surprised if FF8 surpassed it soon, though the vote split caused by FF12 (which obv would hurt FF6 less than 7+) might prevent that. --- Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris Detective in Sir Chris' Police |
| andaca | Posted 7/11/2006 1:39:53 PM | message detail |
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It's because all of the games were new, except Starcraft. None of
them were so old that they weren't fresh in people's minds. Plus, more
people were likely to be here because of those games than the older
ones (with a few exceptions). Div 128 is slightly overrated by it all
ismply being new. Those games have reason to lose strength, the older
games had already lost what they were going to. Simple enough, isn't it? This would actually be my best guess as well. Nothing can directly back this up factually, but it always had seemed to make the most sense. |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/11/2006 1:42:45 PM | message detail |
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That's only because we haven't had a games contest in awhile. I'm sure
that it'd hold up just fine if we got a new contest. Most Div 128 games
would simply be weaker. Oddly enough, of those games I think Halo is one of the least likely to lose strength. It has the sort of fanbase that keeps it riding high for a long time. --- Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris Detective in Sir Chris' Police |