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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 309

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Draco1214 | Posted 7/11/2006 5:16:59 AM | message detail
Around Noontime
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
cyko | Posted 7/11/2006 5:37:52 AM | message detail
let's look at vote totals at 8:30:00 -

GTA vs. Warcraft - 45099
Castlevania vs. Halo - 40700
SMB vs. Madden - 40264
Kingdom Hearts vs. HM - 39475
Metal Gear vs. SC - 38852
Zelda vs. Civilization - 38091

yeah, there's NOTHING strange about today's match....... >_>

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"In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson
3rdTimesDeCharm | Posted 7/11/2006 5:39:51 AM | message detail
That is strange...
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FAHtastic: Everyone's a loser on GameFAQs
andaca | Posted 7/11/2006 5:41:54 AM | message detail
Well, we have people posting extensively on the Blizzard forums. I don't think we've seen too much in the means of external support until now this contest, so the people coming in from there could easily account for a decent amount of the increased vote total. God knows what percentage of them are actually voting for Warcraft, but if nothing else they can explain away part of the increased magnitude of overall votes.
Draco1214 | Posted 7/11/2006 5:58:03 AM | message detail
Did GTA just cut the lead down by 50?!
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
cyko | Posted 7/11/2006 6:08:43 AM | message detail
and here comes another big suspicious spike form Warcraft.....

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"In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson
voltch | Posted 7/11/2006 6:09:40 AM | message detail
since when did we enter the 400 vote per update stage?
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come
Draco1214 | Posted 7/11/2006 6:10:43 AM | message detail
I think the day vote may have arrived a bit early.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
Guess how many teens | Posted 7/11/2006 6:13:44 AM | message detail
4 updates after eachother where GTA cut the lead! Go GTA!
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There are 2 rules to being a success in life: 1. Never give out all the information.
andaca | Posted 7/11/2006 6:18:08 AM | message detail
8:00-9:00 for GTA: 155, 177, 175, 188, 179, 178, 203, 163, 181, 180, 227, 175.

8:00-9:00 for WC: 191, 177, 205, 180, 171, 179, 182, 181, 201, 179, 177, 193.

(These include the update the updater missed)

Average for GTA = 181.75
Standard Deviation for GTA = 18.4495

Average for WC = 184.667
Standard Deviation for GTA = 10.44756

Warcraft is more consistent.
andaca | Posted 7/11/2006 6:19:36 AM | message detail
since when did we enter the 400 vote per update stage?

It missed the 8:55 update. We're still at ~190 per update.
cyko | Posted 7/11/2006 6:19:59 AM | message detail
more consistent with rallying and stuffing. =P

for what it's woeth, this is GTA's highest percentage in the past 5 hours (since the 4:15 update).

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"In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson
Big Bob | Posted 7/11/2006 6:33:59 AM | message detail
*laughs at everyone, especially Ulti, who claimed this match would be a blowout*
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v674/ImBigBob/PokemonvsMetroid.jpg
Prometheus321 | Posted 7/11/2006 6:49:54 AM | message detail
I was all set to vote GTA this morning but when I saw that WarCraft picture I just had to vote for it. Screw my bracket I call anarchy!!

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"My name is Reggie, I'm about kickin' ass, I'm about takin' names, and we're about makin' games." - Reggie Fils-Aime
NewLib | Posted 7/11/2006 6:51:05 AM | message detail
UH OH THERE IS A 600 BARRIER!!! Romero is crafting from the shadows.
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Where am I?
charmander6000 | Posted 7/11/2006 6:52:37 AM | message detail
Lead goes up, lead comes down, lead goes up, lead comes down.

GTA is stalling. Now let's make some real cuts.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Guess how many teens | Posted 7/11/2006 6:54:03 AM | message detail
Isn't that more like warcraft stalling <-<?
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There are 2 rules to being a success in life: 1. Never give out all the information.
Phediuk | Posted 7/11/2006 6:56:48 AM | message detail
HOLY CRAP at these vote totals. o_O
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
Phediuk | Posted 7/11/2006 6:57:30 AM | message detail
Methinks this is our obligatory "two powerhouses face each other in the first round" match.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
charmander6000 | Posted 7/11/2006 6:57:39 AM | message detail
GTA is stalling Warcraft.

or is it the other way around?
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
SonicRaptor | Posted 7/11/2006 6:57:46 AM | message detail
HOLY CRAP at these vote totals. o_O

I know, only 10 hours in and we've already hit the 50K mark.
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"Never argue with a fool, people may not tell the difference" - Murphy's Law
Guess how many teens | Posted 7/11/2006 7:01:16 AM | message detail
Highest lead for warcraft upto now right now
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There are 2 rules to being a success in life: 1. Never give out all the information.
Master Moltar | Posted 7/11/2006 7:14:46 AM | message detail
Oh man, these votals are insane. Rallying combined with Eastern voters, but GTA is looking to come back with the morning vote.

I honestly didn't think the rallying would be much, but it kept WC alive overnight. I wonder how the match would be if we took away a couple thousand rally votes for WC, how close it would be to our original prediction.
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Grand Theft Auto vs. Warcraft - Bracket: GTA - Vote: GTA (8/9)
Yesmar | Posted 7/11/2006 7:19:49 AM | message detail
These results aren't making much sense. Does anyone honestly believe that the first three Warcraft games are anywhere near GTA III, Vice City, and San Andreas in popularity on this web site? Grand Theft Auto clearly has a fanbase on this web site. Nothing we have ever seen implies anything but.* The only explanation for this I can come up with is WoW. But we've already seen (Castlevania/Halo) that you can't rely on just one game to carry you through.





*Vercetti is a midcarder, and with Ness mostly likely underrated in the Stats due to The Boost, CJ probably isn't fodder either.
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"Dropo! You're the laziest man on Mars."
MAXPAYNE4664 | Posted 7/11/2006 7:23:47 AM | message detail
Holy crap this is a very close one!

So many votes.......
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Gamertag - maxpayne4664
andaca | Posted 7/11/2006 7:28:14 AM | message detail
If you took 5000 votes away from Warcraft, it would still have 45.54 percent.

So, even if there cheating the likes of which we'd never seen before, Warcraft would still be thoroughly exceeding most of our expectations.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 7:31:55 AM | message detail
Yeah. This is ahead of SMB/Madden by 5,210 votes.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 7:32:43 AM | message detail
If you took 5000 votes away from Warcraft, it would still have 45.54 percent.

That's about the area I predicted this match to be in, myself.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Kratos_42 | Posted 7/11/2006 7:37:08 AM | message detail
This is some crazy stuff.
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising. CERtified user.
voltch | Posted 7/11/2006 7:39:13 AM | message detail
warcraft has got one ugly pic though.
why are people voting for that?
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come
Guess how many teens | Posted 7/11/2006 7:41:32 AM | message detail
2006-07-11 10:40:01 28005 28611 49.46% 50.54% 56616 606
2006-07-11 10:35:01 27754 28327 49.49% 50.51% 56081 573


I call stuffing <_<
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There are 2 rules to being a success in life: 1. Never give out all the information.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 7:42:36 AM | message detail
That pattern is present so often -- GTA cuts/stalls for four updates, Warcraft gets most of it back in the next update.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
bobby200614 | Posted 7/11/2006 7:43:05 AM | message detail
warcraft has got one ugly pic though.
why are people voting for that?


because it makes them feel better about their own ugliness.

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You know the kinda people that come to these Stacy concerts, these dudes have got energy to spare. I'm talking guys who beat off four times a day!
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 7:44:30 AM | message detail
If this were our first match with two 'heavy-hitters' going at it I'd be fine with these votals. But the thing is, we've already seen Castlevania/Halo, and it wasn't near this. I'm not sold on these two being bigger draws, either -- not by a long shot.

I'd still like Warcraft to pull off the upset (my bracket *is* ****ed), and from a personal perspective I'm elated that MG seems to be the top contender for 4th strongest series on GameFAQs now. But I'd like this Blizzard entry to pull the upset without having to CHEAT to do it.
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Commit it to memory.
Kratos_42 | Posted 7/11/2006 7:47:13 AM | message detail
How many people here think that Warcraft will be invalidated by the end of the day, because of four or five idiots? We've already seen one. I sure think so.
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising. CERtified user.
andaca | Posted 7/11/2006 7:48:52 AM | message detail
Warcraft's voting patterns have been every bit as consistent as GTA's have. There is no reason I've seen, other than sheer paranoia about Blizzard games, to suspect cheating at this point.

Clearly, this doesn't mean that there isn't cheating, it just means that there doesn't appear to be any real reason to believe there is at the moment. And, even if there is cheating going on, there is no solid reason to think that it largely in the favor of Warcraft. For all we know, it could be GTA that has gotten 5000 extra votes. ;)
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 7:50:43 AM | message detail
I really hope there's no cheating, though -- because even if Warcraft was losing 52-48, the people calling for a blowout would have been just as wrong and it would be the moral victor regardless. But if it gets caught cheating it will be marred, and no one will give it credit for how close it got to GTA before that (just as few give credit to Kefka for keeping it close against Vercetti).
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Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 7/11/2006 7:52:13 AM | message detail
Alright, there are a lllooottt of posts I'm not reading. What have I missed in the past 12 hours?

Beside, you know, this match that never should have been close?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 7:52:19 AM | message detail
Kefka's updates have been just as consistent as Vercetti's
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Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 7:53:51 AM | message detail
GTA chokes, Warcraft surprises, cheating allegations back and forth, MGS rules, etc.
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Commit it to memory.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 7:54:23 AM | message detail
Alright, there are a lllooottt of posts I'm not reading. What have I missed in the past 12 hours?

Various accusations of cheating on Warcraft's part, it being inconsistent, etc., etc. There really has not been much that has happened since.

Well, GTA being completely unimpressive today and such -- Metal Gear for fourth strongest series confirmed.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Kratos_42 | Posted 7/11/2006 7:54:41 AM | message detail
Let's remember Mr. 1,800 vote cheater, guys. That person is living proof that Blizzard games make people ker-azy!

I'm guessing there are about two others doing the same right now.
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising. CERtified user.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 7:56:00 AM | message detail
No wonder Kefka does so poorly in contests, he was a Blizzard character all along!
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Commit it to memory.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 7:56:31 AM | message detail
GTA's starting to win some updates. So, according to the pattern, it'll win two more and then lose hard on the fifth!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Kratos_42 | Posted 7/11/2006 7:58:41 AM | message detail
Sadly, yes. I say that the match see-saws twice more before the day is over, with GTA winning by less than 1,000 votes.
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising. CERtified user.
params7 | Posted 7/11/2006 7:59:56 AM | message detail
15 mins ago the gap was 630.
4 mns ago the gap was 610.
10 secs ago the gap was at 602.
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Master Moltar | Posted 7/11/2006 8:00:43 AM | message detail
Big jump by GTA

DAY VOTE HAS ARRIVED, BARRIERS STAND NO CHANCE TO SURVIVE
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Grand Theft Auto vs. Warcraft - Bracket: GTA - Vote: GTA (8/9)
HaRRicH | Posted 7/11/2006 8:00:50 AM | message detail
Great update for GTA there.
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Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/11/2006 8:01:52 AM | message detail
"No wonder Kefka does so poorly in contests, he was a Blizzard character all along!"

Uh, starcraft? It doesn't take a genius to think of that one, does it? Seriously, if you're going to rip into someone make sure you have the grounds to do it on.
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Detective in Sir Chris' Police
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/11/2006 8:01:53 AM | message detail
GTA is stuffing OMG <_____<
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Commit it to memory.