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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 309

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/11/2006 2:27:56 AM | message detail
*wakes up*

Yay, Warcraft is leading!

*looks at the updates*

O_o


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 2:29:17 AM | message detail
GTA seems to have completely stopped Warcraft from gaining it would seem.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/11/2006 2:32:40 AM | message detail
Wow, I wake up, and now GTA starts cutting into WC steadily?

Forget Slow, I'm the real curse. Well, the servers will be down soon, so I guess we'll see the rally attempts.


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
rpgapzx | Posted 7/11/2006 2:33:15 AM | message detail
Another 1 vote gain by GTA
1 final note before bed:

Like most GTA supporters, I am afraid of the lack "day" vote that occured with Halo, the monster of day votes.
However, I think it is important to note that Halo DID have a day vote; it was compartively better during the day. However, it was simply weaker at all points, day and night. While it lost an average of let's say 50 votes at night, it may have lost on average only 20 votes per update during the day. The "day vote" still exists. We only seem to be willing to call something a "day vote" if it switches sides; however, compartive advantage still exists even if it cannot actually turn the tides.

In this case, it is quite clear that GTA is much closer to stalling WC than Halo was. In such a case, a simple swing of 20-30 votes (the same compartive advantage), will turn the way the reults are going. While it would be foolish to conclude GTA's victory, I think it's safe to say after having seen the dead of night vote, that GTA will be coming back in the day vote.

Also, Halo was down by over 3,000+ votes more at this point.

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SC2k6: 9/9 Leaderboard #7: ProfessorBen
Today: Bracket: GTA Vote: Warcraft
Gooper Blooper | Posted 7/11/2006 2:34:34 AM | message detail
Intrigue!
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People are going to buy two machines. They're going to buy an Xbox and they're going to buy a Wii... for the price of one PS3. - Peter Moore
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 2:36:58 AM | message detail
Like most GTA supporters, I am afraid of the lack "day" vote that occured with Halo, the monster of day votes.

You have the opponent to thank for that. Castlevania was just better in that match than Halo. It had a 5,000 or so vote lead before the day vote even thought about kicking in. Castlevania also had a reason to be strong with the day vote; it wasn't just Halo sucking with the day vote. Its opponent was just better with it.

I suppose there is some possibility that Warcraft would get the day vote, but it just seems more likely that it would do better at night and GTA would do better during the day time hours. The amount that GTA needs to overcome is rather small, too -- only a lead of 400 by Warcraft. So while there is room for worry, I'm not worried because of what happened to Halo.



And Warcraft gained back 11 votes out of nowhere. >>

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Lopen | Posted 7/11/2006 3:06:58 AM | message detail
Warcraft is taking the morning vote, clearly! Look at this consistent push!
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 3:07:52 AM | message detail
Quite (in)consistent!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/11/2006 3:08:28 AM | message detail
It should be noted that Warcraft's lastest push happened just before the servers went down. Now we see if rallying makes a difference.


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/11/2006 3:09:39 AM | message detail
I wouldn't be so quick to pin this on cheating, though I do think we're in for a Ceej topic tonight.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
Lopen | Posted 7/11/2006 3:10:40 AM | message detail
It's been consistent for two updates! What more do you want?

The people with stuffy noses are waking up! The fresh morning air is invigorating them! They shall now gorge upon stuffed crust pizza for breakfast, and read Stuff magazine! How I envy these people!
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 3:17:01 AM | message detail
The vote totals for this match are about 1,693 ahead of Castlevania/Halo at this time.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Lopen | Posted 7/11/2006 3:18:45 AM | message detail
More like 2693.
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
Draco1214 | Posted 7/11/2006 3:32:01 AM | message detail
I think this last update has confirmed for me that there is cheating going on. A lot of it.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 3:33:52 AM | message detail
Actually, yeah, I got the wrong vote total ... <<

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 3:37:35 AM | message detail
Warcraft was consistently gaining between 145 - 155 before dropping to 117. And GTA just won that last update.

Hello, inconsistentcy!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Lopen | Posted 7/11/2006 3:38:38 AM | message detail
Quit stuffing up the place with your absurd claims!
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! Should I stop now?
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
Draco1214 | Posted 7/11/2006 3:38:46 AM | message detail
Yeah, Warcraft is all over the place in these updates.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 3:42:33 AM | message detail
120 to 147? Makes sense -- it is Warcraft, after all!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Link2dapast | Posted 7/11/2006 3:42:59 AM | message detail
Yea we're gonna see a ceej topic.
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*~Swift~*
The account that started it all!!
torey luvullo | Posted 7/11/2006 3:43:26 AM | message detail
it will be interesting to see how the dynamics of a close match differ this year from previous years.

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come and lurk with us - LURKERS' BOARD:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585099
Layzerbeam | Posted 7/11/2006 3:44:45 AM | message detail
Has anyone checked the WoW forums for possible links to the poll?

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ROCKET TROUSERS!
im not making these lies up ~ ertyu
transience | Posted 7/11/2006 3:46:09 AM | message detail
there's about 50 of them. it depends on which forum you go to.
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xyzzy
Layzerbeam | Posted 7/11/2006 3:46:38 AM | message detail
The biggest one(s)?

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ROCKET TROUSERS!
im not making these lies up ~ ertyu
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 3:48:28 AM | message detail
147 to 115! Huzzah!!


Throughout all of this, GTA has remained pretty consistent, too!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
jonthomson | Posted 7/11/2006 3:48:43 AM | message detail
People are seeing chances of losing a point, therefore it's OBVIOUSLY cheating. I wonder if they toss a coin twice and it doesn't come up one head and one tail, they automatically assume the coin is rigged.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
voltch | Posted 7/11/2006 3:48:49 AM | message detail
OMG i miss a great part of the best match so far just because my internet connection broke down.
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/11/2006 3:49:34 AM | message detail
I wonder if they toss a coin twice and it doesn't come up one head and one tail, they automatically assume the coin is rigged.

Starcraft in 2004.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
I admire MYC, for he is the pinnacle of human wit, poise, and beauty.
Draco1214 | Posted 7/11/2006 3:50:01 AM | message detail
From: jonthomson | Posted: 7/11/2006 3:48:43 AM | Message Detail
People are seeing chances of losing a point, therefore it's OBVIOUSLY cheating. I wonder if they toss a coin twice and it doesn't come up one head and one tail, they automatically assume the coin is rigged.


Yeah, except Warcraft has had the most inconsistent updates I've seen of any entry.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 3:51:01 AM | message detail
People are seeing chances of losing a point, therefore it's OBVIOUSLY cheating.

Or they're looking at how inconsistent Warcraft is each update. You don't go winning one update with 53% to losing it with 45% just out of nowhere.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
voltch | Posted 7/11/2006 3:51:40 AM | message detail
so warcraft peaked at 603 votes.
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come
transience | Posted 7/11/2006 3:52:29 AM | message detail
it's true - hiko said he was going to go rally for GTA and no one batted an eye. (that sucks too, by the way.) obviously there's WOW rallying involved here, but GTA shouldn't be this close in the first place. quite frankly, GTA is choking here. either that or we overrated the hell out of it.

as for links, give me a minute and I'll see what I can find.
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xyzzy
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 3:54:50 AM | message detail
quite frankly, GTA is choking here. either that or we overrated the hell out of it.

You people and your crazy "GTA > Metal Gear" talk. =p

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
transience | Posted 7/11/2006 3:56:30 AM | message detail
http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/thread.aspx?fn=wow-general&t=9013850&p=1&tmp=1#post9013850

http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/thread.aspx?fn=wow-general&t=9013921&p=1&tmp=1#post9013921

http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/thread.aspx?fn=wow-off-topic&t=1782964&p=1&tmp=1#post1782964

http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/thread.aspx?fn=wow-general&t=9013979&p=1&tmp=1#post9013979
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xyzzy
Draco1214 | Posted 7/11/2006 3:59:23 AM | message detail
Hell, many of the people in those forum topics claimed to have voted for GTA. I highly doubt this is the effects of rallying we're seeing here.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
jonthomson | Posted 7/11/2006 4:04:22 AM | message detail
Let's take a look at some 15 minute updates over the last 2 hours then...

GTA wins one with 53%. Warcraft wins two with 54%. Everything else is 51/49 or tighter. Seriously, it's just local fluctuation. Nobody batted an eyelid when Castlevania fluctuated as much as this. Well, people with Halo automatically assumed shenanigans, but we didn't see a thing from Ceej.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
voltch | Posted 7/11/2006 4:21:01 AM | message detail
hmmm.
GTA is slowly making a real foght out of this.
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 4:23:23 AM | message detail
GTA has won the past four updates, taking away a good 20 votes from the latest one.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
TheCruelAngel | Posted 7/11/2006 4:29:05 AM | message detail
Warcraft winning would make the contest for me.

"lol. It has no chance. Look at all the random polls. GTA is going to walk all over it."

Even if it does not win, I'd harldly describe what's happening as an easy GTA victory.
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/11/2006 4:30:39 AM | message detail
It doesn't particularly matter to me who wins win, though I favor GTA based entirely upon my bracket getting the point. I'm not really in contention for a prize anyway, as I believe I screwed up too much already.


But yeah, even when GTA wins, it won't be an easy victory. It could be completely favored by the day vote and still not get that.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
voltch | Posted 7/11/2006 4:31:15 AM | message detail
ouch warcraft regains what it lost
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come
jonthomson | Posted 7/11/2006 4:33:08 AM | message detail
GTA closed gap by 26 votes in the last hour. Obvious Warcraft stuffing :-)
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
Draco1214 | Posted 7/11/2006 4:34:20 AM | message detail
This entire match has been going through a strange, recurring pattern.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
voltch | Posted 7/11/2006 4:37:40 AM | message detail
what i don't get is why does warcraft get 100 votes in an update and then suddenly jump to 160 votes per update at an almost set pattern?
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come
jonthomson | Posted 7/11/2006 4:38:49 AM | message detail
what i don't get is why does warcraft get 100 votes in an update and then suddenly jump to 160 votes per update at an almost set pattern?

Alucard's plan. Don't question it.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
steve illumina | Posted 7/11/2006 4:54:46 AM | message detail
Warcraft...wow...

I am going to be vindicated yet again! GTA had the early lead...lost it while I was sleepin...now I wake up, get my latte, and BAM! What a shocker! Course, I aint shocked...but all the Tommy Boys are!

:)
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Steve Illumina: 'Sage of Board 8', Adored by Elites, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by Girly Gamers!
Draco1214 | Posted 7/11/2006 5:06:00 AM | message detail
How in the hell did Warcraft go from ~150 an update to ~200?
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
TheCruelAngel | Posted 7/11/2006 5:12:02 AM | message detail
Rallying through the game. My brother on the European server did a lot of that.
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
Draco1214 | Posted 7/11/2006 5:13:48 AM | message detail
Except the number lowered back to around ~170. Warcraft loves to be inconsistent.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
TheCruelAngel | Posted 7/11/2006 5:16:20 AM | message detail
So, when does the day vote officially start?
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.