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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 308

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Slowflake | Posted 7/10/2006 9:42:02 PM | message detail

ACTIVATE 300-VOTE BARRIER

Heh, just kidding.

Now, how in the world did GTA get the board vote? Bracket voting maybe?

And what do you think are the prediction percentages for this match?
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego

xp1337 | Posted 7/10/2006 9:42:23 PM | message detail

Good god I love this match. This is the most excited I've been about a match since any Mario/Crono bout.

Same here, except replace Mario/Crono with Knux/Magus.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SpC2k6 (08/09) GTA v Warcraft

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/10/2006 9:42:27 PM | message detail

Question: What do you think the prediction percentage of this match will be if Warcraft wins?

TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

NewLib | Posted 7/10/2006 9:42:30 PM | message detail

Whats the closest wire to wire match? Wasnt it LTTP/CT?
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Where am I?

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/10/2006 9:42:31 PM | message detail

(yeah, if Warcraft turns out to be the fourth strongest series in the stats, I ain't buying it).

That fantastic honor is going to -- you guessed it -- Metal Gear!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake

therealmnm | Posted 7/10/2006 9:42:44 PM | message detail

Huh? I'm the only one in this topic that actually really likes GTA? After playing Vice City, I thought GTA was okay, but the more I play San Andreas, the more I absolutely love the series.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC

SonicRaptor | Posted 7/10/2006 9:42:49 PM | message detail

Knux/Magus was just insane because NOBODY saw it coming in any capacity.
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"Never argue with a fool, people may not tell the difference" - Murphy's Law

Applause Sign | Posted 7/10/2006 9:42:50 PM | message detail

And how else would you expleain the random vote shifts without rallying?

When a match is this close, you're going to have abnormal updates thanks to it being pretty split down the middle. I'm not calling anything fishy until I see an actual pattern emerge.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids

Lopen | Posted 7/10/2006 9:42:58 PM | message detail

I pretty much agree entirely with EC on this match... although I'd replace WoW with Warcraft 3.
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244

RPGuy96 | Posted 7/10/2006 9:43:01 PM | message detail

Now, how in the world did GTA get the board vote? Bracket voting maybe?

Halo won the board vote over Castlevania. Definitely bracket voting.
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"It's two children and a duck. Be careful!" ~ Leo, Suikoden III

VicPez | Posted 7/10/2006 9:43:14 PM | message detail

That is a good reason, as is me getting this match, and not having the board hype up another damn Blizzard character for the character battle.

I think everybody's learned from Kerrigan.
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"It is hard, however, to tell how far to trust chroniclers when they start breathing love and romance." - Isaac Asimov

Tai | Posted 7/10/2006 9:43:18 PM | message detail

Question: What do you think the prediction percentage of this match will be if Warcraft wins?

Uh, 51.23%.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/10/2006 9:43:27 PM | message detail

I can't see any other series beating the 1 seeds for the top 4.

TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

rpgapzx | Posted 7/10/2006 9:43:36 PM | message detail

And how else would you expleain the random vote shifts without rallying?

People come in and vote when they get a chance in the first 30 mins, you get more of the board vote, or anyone knowing that the poll starts at 9PM PST trying to catch the beginning. And there's soemthing else we're not allowed to say that happens a lot more inthe beginning O_o.
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SC2k6: 9/9 Leaderboard #7: ProfessorBen
Today: Bracket: GTA Vote: Warcraft

longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/10/2006 9:43:38 PM | message detail

I don't care about either one, so my excitement is completely no there for this match. Just my ever growing dislike of Blizzard entries. >>

I despise Warcraft and love GTA, but I love close matches too
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
JUST LIKE UR MOM LOLO AND URS TO LALA-Tombolo

SonicRaptor | Posted 7/10/2006 9:43:43 PM | message detail

Yes, this early in the poll it's always the bracket vote and in this case GTA is the bracket favorite.
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"Never argue with a fool, people may not tell the difference" - Murphy's Law

NewLib | Posted 7/10/2006 9:43:49 PM | message detail

I can buy Warcraft being the range with Diablo, Halo, Grand Theft Auto (obviously), and Street Fighter/Devil May Cry (I think its possible one falls in this range).
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Where am I?

Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/10/2006 9:44:02 PM | message detail

Karma Hunter | Posted 7/10/2006 9:44:07 PM | message detail

Whats the closest wire to wire match? Wasnt it LTTP/CT?

Frog/Liquid, bay-bee.

Ugh...makes it all the more heartbreaking.
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Commit it to memory.

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/10/2006 9:44:29 PM | message detail

Huh? I'm the only one in this topic that actually really likes GTA? After playing Vice City, I thought GTA was okay, but the more I play San Andreas, the more I absolutely love the series.

I don't hate the games; I'm just not a big fan of them.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake

LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 9:44:32 PM | message detail

See, I could get behind Knuckles/Magus because it was not just an upset, but I love Rad Red. Here...meh, I just can't rally behind Warcraft (see what I did there?). Honestly, I loved Knux/Magus more than Kefka/Vercetti.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/10/2006 9:44:36 PM | message detail

I dunno, that first update that Warcraft took was completely out of left field.

TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

Aprosenf | Posted 7/10/2006 9:45:20 PM | message detail

I'm betting around two thirds of the brackets have GTA.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

rpgapzx | Posted 7/10/2006 9:45:28 PM | message detail

That is a good reason, as is me getting this match, and not having the board hype up another damn Blizzard character for the character battle.

Why don't you want one? That last Blizzard character seemed to turn out pretty well for you.

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SC2k6: 9/9 Leaderboard #7: ProfessorBen
Today: Bracket: GTA Vote: Warcraft

Janus5000 | Posted 7/10/2006 9:45:32 PM | message detail

...XD
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."

Applause Sign | Posted 7/10/2006 9:45:33 PM | message detail

Huh? I'm the only one in this topic that actually really likes GTA? After playing Vice City, I thought GTA was okay, but the more I play San Andreas, the more I absolutely love the series.

Well, to be fair, I've never played San Andreas, and have only watched a kid play it for like 10 minutes. But I did play all the ones prior to it. The 3D ones anyway. I'll probably pick it up once the next gen is all out and whatnot and I can pick it up for crazy cheap.

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Slowflake | Posted 7/10/2006 9:45:34 PM | message detail

From BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/11/2006 12:44:36 AM | #422
I dunno, that first update that Warcraft took was completely out of left field.

TuRtLe

*raises hand*

Yeah, I'm not proud of it either.
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/10/2006 9:45:43 PM | message detail

And I like the GTA games, I just voted for Warcraft because Warcraft 2 consumed 2 years of my life.

TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/10/2006 9:45:44 PM | message detail

I dunno, that first update that Warcraft took was completely out of left field.

Anything that happens in the third update can be called out of left field...
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

Karma Hunter | Posted 7/10/2006 9:45:45 PM | message detail

...that's the second time GTA's maintained the exact same percentage. o.O
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Commit it to memory.

transience | Posted 7/10/2006 9:46:05 PM | message detail

there are always abnormal updates. go through any match and you'll find them. the bigger your sample size (say, 15 minutes), the less likely it is that you'll find one. 5 minutes is a very small sample size so you're going to have anomalies.
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xyzzy

Master Moltar | Posted 7/10/2006 9:46:31 PM | message detail

*prepares to give this match a fishy stick*
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Grand Theft Auto vs. Warcraft - Bracket: GTA - Vote: GTA (8/9)

transience | Posted 7/10/2006 9:46:34 PM | message detail

00:45:

GTA/WC - 10005
CV/Halo - 9168
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xyzzy

Yesmar | Posted 7/10/2006 9:47:01 PM | message detail

Eggplant Lord | Posted 7/10/2006 9:47:04 PM | message detail

...Seriously <_<

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*Stares at FFVA game info with bloodshot eyes*
Release date... Coming...

Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/10/2006 9:47:29 PM | message detail

It is interesting to note that if we were going on 15 minute updates like we used to, we'd think that GTA was consistently gaining.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

Eggplant Lord | Posted 7/10/2006 9:47:31 PM | message detail

And that was at the percentage being the same.

///
*Stares at FFVA game info with bloodshot eyes*
Release date... Coming...

Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/10/2006 9:47:52 PM | message detail

Oh sure, when people suggest cheating during Castlevania/Halo despite the fact that it goes against all voting trends we've seen so far, they're just whiners, but when the beginning of the match is volatile people can just yell cheating all they want?

The only reason I even thought it is because of SC vs SSBM.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

Applause Sign | Posted 7/10/2006 9:48:07 PM | message detail

Oh sure, when people suggest cheating during Castlevania/Halo despite the fact that it goes against all voting trends we've seen so far, they're just whiners, but when the beginning of the match is volatile people can just yell cheating all they want?

I don't think anyone in this topic has called cheating once, except BT, but we all know he doesn't belong in here anyway.

lol stats topix elitism

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Tai | Posted 7/10/2006 9:48:14 PM | message detail

00:45

460 votes for GTA, and 430 for WarCraft.

460 / 890 = 51.68% for GTA.
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transience | Posted 7/10/2006 9:48:32 PM | message detail

in fact, here it is:

00:15 | Grand Theft Auto | 02186 | +2064 | 52.85% | Warcraft | 01950 | +1866 | 47.15% | Lead of 0236 | (Up 198)
00:30 | Grand Theft Auto | 03736 | +1550 | 51.80% | Warcraft | 03477 | +1527 | 48.20% | Lead of 0259 | (Up 23)
00:45 | Grand Theft Auto | 05166 | +1430 | 51.63% | Warcraft | 04839 | +1362 | 48.37% | Lead of 0327 | (Up 68)

looks pretty normal to me.
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xyzzy

NewLib | Posted 7/10/2006 9:48:49 PM | message detail

Stat topix elitism is the best.
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Where am I?

UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/10/2006 9:49:41 PM | message detail

Frog/Liquid, bay-bee.

NO ONE saw that match being close, either.

By the way, this match is going to be the ultimate test of whether or not rallying matters. Everything WoW-related is going to see that this poll is close in due time. 6 million people bought the game, and one can assume that around half of them play or follow it regularly. Add in Warcraft 3's Bnet exposure (2's doesn't exist anymore), and you have the single greatest potential force for rallying we've ever seen.

Outside of Korea proxy-stuffing, at least. If Warcraft loses a close match, I think it's safe to say that rallying is BS and that people will cancel each other out even if they care enough to come to the poll. Most people will vote their favorite anyway, and I'd assume backlash comes from the massive amounts of annoying spamming. The percentages probably level themselves out, but we'll see. We'll never have a better setup for rallying making all the difference than we do now.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne

Karma Hunter | Posted 7/10/2006 9:49:41 PM | message detail

Meh, there might be cheating/rallying/whatever you want to call it...but the thing is, it wouldn't matter unless Warcraft was comparable to GTA in strength in the first place. And in that respect, I'm dumbfounded here.

And I do love my GTA. Seeing this happen is a little unsettling.
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Commit it to memory.

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/10/2006 9:50:06 PM | message detail

Meh, I'll admit that I don't follow these polls closely at the beginning, and I haven't seen any of the really close matches (aside from Kefka/Vercetti) so I don't know much about the voting trends.

TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

Karma Hunter | Posted 7/10/2006 9:50:26 PM | message detail

NO ONE saw that match being close, either.

*points to self*
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Commit it to memory.

Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/10/2006 9:50:46 PM | message detail

This match loves having numbers stay the same from one update to the next...
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/10/2006 9:51:27 PM | message detail

The only problem with that Ulti, is that WoW players are....dedicated to the lifestyle of being a MMORPG addict. I doubt they have time for other games.

TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

NewLib | Posted 7/10/2006 9:51:30 PM | message detail

Warcraft II I still love you ;_;
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Where am I?

Slowflake | Posted 7/10/2006 9:51:53 PM | message detail

I just saw some links of rallying on WoW forums, and while it's nowhere as bad as OMG ITS VINCENT MUST VOTE, GTA is still getting a fair amount of support considering where they are.
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego

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