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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 308

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Phediuk | Posted 7/10/2006 6:28:51 PM | message detail
*COMPARISONS GAME- (4) Grand Theft Auto vs. (5) Warcraft*

Sales

Warcraft's sales are certainly respectable, but the three PS2 GTAs also happen to be the three best-selling games on the system. No way in hell can WC compete with that.

Advantage: Grand Theft Auto

Hype

Grand Theft Auto:

Always plenty of attention directed towards GTA. Just when the San Andreas hype was dying down, the whole Hot Coffee incident heated up. Cue Jack Thompson's outlandish statements towards gaming in general, and the rest is history.

Warcraft:

Slow, but steady. WoW remains extremely popular, though WC4 is probably about 12 years off, judging by how loong it's taken Blizzard to get around to StarCraft 2 (it's heavily rumored to be their next project.)

Advantage: Grand Theft Auto

Number of Games

Grand Theft Auto:

Main series-

Grand Theft Auto (PSX, 1998)
Grand Theft Auto 2 (PSX, 1999)
Grand Theft Auto III (PS2, 2001)
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (PS2, 2002)
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (PS2, 2004)
Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories (PSP, 2005)

Spinoffs/ports-

Grand Theft Auto (PC, 1998)
Grand Theft Auto (GBC, 1999)
Grand Theft Auto: London, 1969 (PSX, 1999)
Grand Theft Auto: London, 1969 (PC, 1999)
Grand Theft Auto: London, 1961 (PC, 1999)
Grand Theft Auto 2 (PC, 1999)
Grand Theft Auto 2 (DC, 2000)
Grand Theft Auto 2 (GBC, 2000)
Grand Theft Auto III (PC, 2002)
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (PC, 2003)
Grand Theft Auto Double Pack (Xbox, 2003)
Grand Theft Auto Double Pack (PS2, 2003)
Grand Theft Auto Advance (GBA, 2004)
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (PC, 2005)
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (Xbox, 2005)
Grand Theft Auto: The Trilogy (Xbox, 2005)
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas Special Edition (PS2, 2005)
Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories (PS2, 2006)

Total- 24
--

Warcraft:

Main series-

Warcraft: Orcs & Humans (PC, 1994)
Warcraft II: Tides of Darkness (PC, 1995)
Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos (PC, 2002)

Spinoffs/ports-

Warcraft: Orcs & Humans (Macintosh, 1995)
Warcraft II: Tides of Darkness (Macintosh, 1996)
Warcraft II: Beyond the Dark Portal (PC, 1996)
Warcraft II: Beyond the Dark Portal (Macintosh, 1996)
Warcraft II: Battle.net Edition (PC, 1999)
Warcraft II: Battle.net Edition (Macintosh, 1999)
Warcraft II: The Dark Saga (PSX, 1997)
Warcraft II: The Dark Saga (Saturn, 1997)
Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos (Macintosh, 2002)
Warcraft III: The Frozen Throne (PC, 2003)
Warcraft III: The Frozen Throne (Macintosh, 2003)
Warcraft III Battle Chest (PC, 2003)
World of Warcraft (PC, 2004)
World of Warcraft (Macintosh, 2004)

Total- 17

Advantage: Grand Theft Auto

GameFAQs Status

Number of FAQs:

Grand Theft Auto:

Grand Theft Auto- 6
Grabd Theft Auto 2- 8
Grand Theft Auto III- 52
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City- 57
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas- 58
Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories- 28
Total- 207

Warcraft:

Warcraft: Orcs and Humans- 3
Warcraft II: Tides of Darkness- 8
Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos- 34
Total- 45

Advantage: Grand Theft Auto
Phediuk | Posted 7/10/2006 6:29:11 PM | message detail
Average review score/Number of reviews:

Grand Theft Auto:

Grand Theft Auto- 6.86 (28)
Grand Theft Auto 2- 8.03 (30)
Grand Theft Auto III- 9.65 (51)
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City- 9.39 (64)
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas- 8.95 (77)
Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories- 8.81 (31)
Series average- 8.62 (281)

Warcraft:

Warcraft: Orcs and Humans- 7.30 (10)
Warcraft II: Tides of Darkness- 8.84 (19)
Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos- 8.78 (46)
Series average- 8.31 (75)

Advantage: Grand Theft Auto/Grand Theft Auto

Board activity:

The World of Warcraft board has over twice as many pages as the entire GTA series combined. Jesus.

Advantage: Warcraft

Board Odds Project

Match prediction:

Grand Theft Auto- 95
Warcraft- 38

Mega Man/Mario Kart is the only first-round match that has a larger split. Nonetheless, still a very clear decision for GTA.

Advantage: Grand Theft Auto

Point value:

Grand Theft Auto- 97
Warcraft- 44

Neither of these series even have over 100 points. lolz.

Advantage: Grand Theft Auto

Previous contest representation

Grand Theft Auto:

SC2003-

Tommy Vercetti (27th)

Sp2004-

Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (12th)

SC2004-

Tommy Vercetti (26th)

Sp2005-

Officer Tenpenny (32nd)

SC2005-

Tommy Vercetti (35th)
Carl Johnson (63rd)

Top 100-

Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (#11)
Grand Theft Auto III (#27)
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (#35)

Warcraft:

Warcraft:

Top 100-

World of Warcraft (#39)
Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos (#60)

Advantage: Grand Theft Auto

Intangibles

Ignore the performances of GTA's characters; no one gives a crap about the cast of a GTA game. It's like the Freeman Flu, but arguably worse. The games themselves are a force on this site. Make no mistake.

Advantage: Grand Theft Auto

Conclusion

Even with the massive rallying potential of Warcraft, and the general Blizzard support on this site, I'm gonna have to give the nod to GTA. And easily. Look at the Top 100; all 3 PS2 GTAs placed above Warcraft's most popular game. That pretty much seals the deal for me. GTA with 58%.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
SonicRaptor | Posted 7/10/2006 6:48:16 PM | message detail
I really don't believe the Top 100 has any weight in this contest: CastleVania only has one game on that list (and the series is nearly up to 20 games) while Halo has both games on the list (with Halo 1 being higher than SOTN).

Warcraft is also untested in the contest: it never had a game nor a character in the contest. The only thing we can compare it to is StarCraft or Diablo, considering WoW boosted Warcraft's overall popularity to practically #1 status in Blizzard's lineup: I'd say it's GTA that is screwed.
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"Never argue with a fool, people may not tell the difference" - Murphy's Law
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/10/2006 6:49:13 PM | message detail
I really don't believe the Top 100 has any weight in this contest: CastleVania only has one game on that list (and the series is nearly up to 20 games) while Halo has both games on the list (with Halo 1 being higher than SOTN).

Dot. Dot. Dot.

SOTN is weaker than Halo. Anyone perceptive would have been able to tell that the Castlevania series still draws strength from many, many games. That's why it beat Halo.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
SonicRaptor | Posted 7/10/2006 6:51:15 PM | message detail
Yet SOTN is the one CastleVania game that everyone gets behind and is univerally considered by the fanbase to be the best one. I'd honestly like to see SOTN and Halo actually happen and I predict the results would be identical to what we saw a few days ago.
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"Never argue with a fool, people may not tell the difference" - Murphy's Law
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 6:53:07 PM | message detail
So...you're saying that the entire Castlevania series did NOTHING against Halo, except for Symphony of the Night?
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
SonicRaptor | Posted 7/10/2006 6:54:16 PM | message detail
No, just that SOTN can stand on it's own without the rest of CastleVania backing it up.
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"Never argue with a fool, people may not tell the difference" - Murphy's Law
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 6:54:57 PM | message detail
Of course it can stand on its own, but it won't beat Halo without the rest of the series behind it. That's just silly.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
therealmnm | Posted 7/10/2006 6:57:10 PM | message detail
Yet SOTN is the one CastleVania game that everyone gets behind and is univerally considered by the fanbase to be the best one.

No, it is not. You would be surprised at how many Castlevania fans haven't even played the game. It may be the most popular game in the series, but it definitely isn't universal. It certainly doesn't represent the collective strength of the series, as we saw against Halo.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/10/2006 6:57:34 PM | message detail
Yet SOTN is the one CastleVania game that everyone gets behind and is univerally considered by the fanbase to be the best one. I'd honestly like to see SOTN and Halo actually happen and I predict the results would be identical to what we saw a few days ago.

I don't like saying this, because really, it's kind of mean, but that's one of the stupidest things I've ever heard. The series is far stronger than SOTN.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/10/2006 6:58:03 PM | message detail
Hell, SOTN isn't even the best selling Castlevania game.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
SonicRaptor | Posted 7/10/2006 6:58:38 PM | message detail
Point taken: I'm just curious as to what would happen if Halo and just SOTN were to go at it. I think it would hold up well enough but clearly others disagree: that is all.

Anyways, I'm done here: let's debate something else.
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"Never argue with a fool, people may not tell the difference" - Murphy's Law
VideoboysaysCube | Posted 7/10/2006 7:00:00 PM | message detail
For some reason, I feel like SOTN wouldn't be able to beat Halo in a direct match up. It makes me wonder though if people are actually taking into consideration the whole series or not. It appears to me that they are. I don't see any single CV game beating Halo directly. This is making me think that Sonic/SSB and Mega Man/MK are going to be more dangerous matches that what I first anticipated. And I had SSB over SMB...so much for that upset...
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This sentence has five words. This sentence has eight words.
Exactly one sentence in this signature is true.
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/10/2006 7:00:26 PM | message detail
...*slaps forehead*
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
SonicRaptor | Posted 7/10/2006 7:02:34 PM | message detail
This is making me think that Sonic/SSB and Mega Man/MK are going to be more dangerous matches that what I first anticipated. And I had SSB over SMB...so much for that upset...

SSB over Sonic is pretty much guarenteed. The only remaining match that will be close in the first round is Mega Man/Mario Kart (even then, picking Mega Man is safe).

SSB over SMB I will continue to compare to Samus over Mario from last year: a risky pick made on misleading numbers.
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"Never argue with a fool, people may not tell the difference" - Murphy's Law
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 7:02:52 PM | message detail
This match is about 300 behind KH/HM with two hours left. SMB needs a little less than 6000 to win by over 100,000. Don't think it's gonna do it.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/10/2006 7:04:04 PM | message detail

SSB over Sonic is pretty much guarenteed.


...

It's always nice to have a prophet visit this topic.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 7:06:43 PM | message detail
And interestingly enough, Madden has slowly but surely been chipping away at the percentage since the halfway point. SMB's lost .32% since then.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/10/2006 7:07:18 PM | message detail
I think the point Sonic was trying to make is that the Top 100 should be taken with a grain of salt in the series contest.


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/10/2006 7:08:49 PM | message detail
I think the point Sonic was trying to make is that the Top 100 should be taken with a grain of salt in the series contest.

The point I'm making is that it shouldn't be. It can be extremely useful if you're able to figure out what games a series will draw strength from.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 7:08:49 PM | message detail
Well, we knew that from the beginning. He just drew a bad conclusion with it.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/10/2006 7:20:06 PM | message detail
He drew the opposite conclusion from it. Mario Kart had a rep and Mega Man didn't. That doesn't mean that Mega Man doesn't have a varying fanbase in terms of them unifying behind just one game, but that doesn't mean the series itself isn't weak. As a matter of fact, the Castlevania Factor leans heavily in Mega Man's favour.


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Mumei | Posted 7/10/2006 7:20:48 PM | message detail
Out of boredom, these are the first round averages to this point for every contest, including the current totals for this match (as of this post):

2002
58,697

2003
101,414

2004 Spring
87,969

2004 Summer
79,039

2005 Spring
73,561

2005 Summer
94,141

July 2006
108,467

Continues to plow ahead of 2003...

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"I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived"- Sensei, "Kokoro"
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/10/2006 7:22:32 PM | message detail
SMB just broke a 95k lead, with 1:40 left. The last 5k took an hour to build up...it's gonna be close.
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"It's two children and a duck. Be careful!" ~ Leo, Suikoden III
Janus5000 | Posted 7/10/2006 7:23:48 PM | message detail
It's slowing down too much - even at its current rate, it'll fall short.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/10/2006 7:26:57 PM | message detail
You're right; I can't subtract. SMB will have to be content with the largest vote gap and largest individual total.
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"It's two children and a duck. Be careful!" ~ Leo, Suikoden III
therealmnm | Posted 7/10/2006 7:28:55 PM | message detail
As a matter of fact, the Castlevania Factor leans heavily in Mega Man's favour.

Why do I get the feeling that people are seriously beginning to overrate this "Castlevania Factor"? It won because Castlevania games have more fans than Halo. Plain and simple. If you want to talk about diversity, then having 6 games on the NES, a lackluster game on the SNES, and a lackluster game on the PS1 isn't what I would call "diverse" for Mega Man. People are pinning that the Mega Man series will be viewed as the Mega Man franchise in its entirety. But still, most of the franchise is rooted in Nintendo anyways, where Mario Kart has been a bigger series overall. Castlevania beat Halo, but until I see it with Sonic or Mega Man, I'm wary of calling its win a "factor" or contest rule. It's just one instance that we've seen.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 7:38:50 PM | message detail
Well, it's a combination of a "Castlevania Factor," a long-established series with many games to draw from, and a "Halo Factor," a new series with virtually no diversity in its fanbase and few games in the case of Sonic/SSB.

As far as Mega Man is concerned, it's not like Mario Kart doesn't have the same thing in its favor.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 7:46:09 PM | message detail
Man, Ceej sure is taking his time getting the GTA/WC picture up.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/10/2006 7:46:19 PM | message detail
Seeing SMB get 105,000 votes by itself is awesome.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/10/2006 7:47:44 PM | message detail
I just wish they'd vote Mario like that in other matches.
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* Is Dranze *
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/10/2006 7:48:43 PM | message detail
Wow, what the hell happened from 2002 to 2003, and from 2003 to 2004?


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 7:48:54 PM | message detail
This match could get as high as 11th in total votes, but I doubt it can break the top 10. It'd need nearly 119,000 for that.

Super Mario Brothers by itself could probably land in the top 40.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
therealmnm | Posted 7/10/2006 7:49:22 PM | message detail
Well, it's a combination of a "Castlevania Factor," a long-established series with many games to draw from, and a "Halo Factor," a new series with virtually no diversity in its fanbase and few games in the case of Sonic/SSB.

But the thing with Sonic/SSB as opposed to CV/Halo is that SSB's fanbase is widespread...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 7:49:55 PM | message detail
It is? Since when?
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Tediz247 | Posted 7/10/2006 7:50:41 PM | message detail
FACT or FICTION: SMB/FF will break Link/Cloud 2K3's record for most votes in a single match one day before LoZ/FF does the same.

I say fact.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
Tediz247 | Posted 7/10/2006 7:51:50 PM | message detail
By the way, I say SMB with 95.3% of brackets. There's enough idiots out there that this won't get close to the prediction records.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
Starion | Posted 7/10/2006 7:52:27 PM | message detail
How exactly is SSB widespread? CV has games from the 8 bit era to current gen. It also has games for Nintendo, Sega, Sony, Microsoft, and a few other systems. Smash Bros doesn't even come close to matching that kind of reach.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 7:52:29 PM | message detail
Good grief, I'd have a hard time calling 150,000 votes "Fact" with any sort of confidence.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
therealmnm | Posted 7/10/2006 7:53:34 PM | message detail
Wow, what the hell happened from 2002 to 2003, and from 2003 to 2004?

From 2002 to 2003, not only was the contest itself more popular, but the industry had also grown quite a bit from the previous contest. By then, the Gamecube and Xbox were pretty much established, and the major hits for all the systems were beginning to release. But as a whole, contest awareness was sky high. Also, 2002 was littered with fodderlike characters. The vote draws simply weren't there. You can see near the end of the contest that the matches were starting to draw larger numbers.

From 2k3 to 2k4, we had the poll position change...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
transience | Posted 7/10/2006 7:54:19 PM | message detail
a lot happened between those years. the site got more popular, the poll position moved, the redesign happened.

still no picture for GTA/WC... not that a picture could possibly change things today though. there is going to be some serious "I told you so" topics in about an hour no matter who's ahead, so everyone get ready.

for Mario's prediction percentage... I'll say 94.5%.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 7/10/2006 7:54:38 PM | message detail
eh, I'll up that - 97%.
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xyzzy
Tai | Posted 7/10/2006 7:56:53 PM | message detail
Madden's a pool of blood as of now. :-)
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579987 - Wanna report a TOS violation! Go to Snack Attack and we can help!
therealmnm | Posted 7/10/2006 7:57:29 PM | message detail
It is? Since when?

I said the fanbase, not the game. There is a difference. SSBM is as Nintendo as they come, and you can't deny that Nintendo doesn't have a large fanbase on this site, especially when compared to Halo and the Xbox. I'm talking widespread as in pure numbers, not diversity. With Halo, there's a large portion of the site that still don't care for the Xbox. SSB doesn't have that same disadvantage.

The whole series thing still hasn't been proven yet... Halo is a special case. Sonic/SSB is a totally different animal as both series have large fanbases.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
charmander6000 | Posted 7/10/2006 7:59:02 PM | message detail
Looks like the vote lead will only reach about 99.5k

So close.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
therealmnm | Posted 7/10/2006 7:59:18 PM | message detail
Mario's percentage should be just as high as LoZ. I'm taking no less than 98%.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 7:59:23 PM | message detail
You know, perhaps you missed the Spring Contest, but Halo DOES have a big fanbase on this site now. SSBM wasn't that much stronger, you know.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/10/2006 8:06:01 PM | message detail
I stand by the belief that Starcraft and everything it went up against is seriously overrated, even SSB:M. I have SSB in my bracket, but I'm starting to lean towards the Sonic upset.


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
therealmnm | Posted 7/10/2006 8:06:46 PM | message detail
You know, perhaps you missed the Spring Contest, but Halo DOES have a big fanbase on this site now. SSBM wasn't that much stronger, you know.

*sigh*

But there's still more than 50% of the site who don't have an Xbox and about 24% of the voters saying that they hate Microsoft with a passion. Of course Halo has a large fanbase on this site. But there's still a large portion of the site that doesn't care for it at all. I don't see how you can possibly compare SSBM to that. The Gamecube has more than 70% ownership on this site, and I'm willing to bet that a large portion of them have owned or at least played SSBM. Bringing up the Spring Contest is irrelevant as I'm talking about the size of the fanbase that each series can draw from.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 8:07:22 PM | message detail
I dunno about SSBM, since it got whipped by FFVII itself, but the rest of it is overrated to SOME extent. It has to be since StarCraft's cheat votes were not removed.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden