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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 307

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/9/2006 1:10:17 PM | message detail
at this point, SSB > SMB looks impossible now. with people voting based on series, SMB is obviously more established as a series than SSB can hope for.
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* Is Dranze *
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/9/2006 1:11:16 PM | message detail
It was already impossible before the contest started. Mario's already got a game stronger than SSBM, and then you add the rest of the series...
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
TRE Public Account | Posted 7/9/2006 1:15:25 PM | message detail
Well, that's like using Board 8's Top 100 Games List as an authority. It's interesting to look at, but don't take it for more than face value.

I'd say it's a bit more credible then that. There's a similar topic on the SNES boards. Near the top it matches up pretty well with the X-Stats from the Spring 2k4 contest and the Top 100 List. If you only look at the number of #1 votes, than it also matches up with the seeding of the SNES games in the Spring 2k4 contest(with exception to Lttp).

The top games on the Genesis list were pretty much the same ones that made the Spring Contest. Sonic 2 being so far ahead of the other Genesis games means there's a pretty good chance it really is the most popular Genesis game on this site.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
NewLib | Posted 7/9/2006 1:21:13 PM | message detail
Here is the thing with Goldeneye. My friends arent big gamers. They own a PS2 or XBox and they own GTA or Halo, but overall not many games. The only game that any of many friends have ever broken out to play in the last 2 or 3 years not on Gamecube, Xbox, or PS2 IS Goldeneye.

And they have broken it out a lot. I dont know maybe its just my age, but I really hold something special about Goldeneye and OOT. Those two games pretty much defined my childhood. OOT we all got on the first day and we have meetings everyday to discuss or progress. Goldeneye was a 3 times a week RELIGION.

We all enjoyed SM64, but it just couldnt compare to the other two.

But I think this is me letting my personal experiences get in the way of my judgement, but I still take Goldeneye.
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Where am I?
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/9/2006 1:24:18 PM | message detail
I would still tend to disagree with you about Sonic 2 being the strongest with such a small voting pool when it already lost in a larger voting pool to S&K, even if it is old. I still find little reason to give this any sort of credibility.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Lopen | Posted 7/9/2006 1:27:19 PM | message detail
I have no idea why I picked Kingdom Hearts to get so much in this match in the Analysis write up. I really didn't expect it to. My Oracle had it getting 74.17% and I bet on Harvest Moon in a spread that would have KH winning if it got the 79% I predicted in my write up.

Ridiculous!
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"I need a weapon." - Master Chief
It's official, Master Chief > Halo.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/9/2006 1:32:07 PM | message detail
At the 16:30 mark, this match has 81479 votes. To compare with other matches at the same time:

Zelda/Civilization - 81743
Pokemon/Star Ocean - 83745
Metal Gear/Soul Calibur - 82895
Castlevania/Halo - 83918
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Master Moltar | Posted 7/9/2006 1:38:29 PM | message detail
I'm preparing future analyses to be posted, and had some comments I wanted to make.

We are all damn confident in our GTA/Warcraft picks.
Sonic/DMC...heh, poor Lopen. He's mentioned in almost all the other write-ups.
Mega Man/Mario Kart is split right now at 4-4. I haven't received one analysis for the match yet, but it will decide the Crew pick!

Super Mario 64 vs. Goldeneye, hot damn. I'd probably go with Goldeneye, but I wouldn't feel good with that pick at all.
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Kingdom Hearts vs. Harvest Moon - Bracket: KH - Vote: KH (6/7)
Lopen | Posted 7/9/2006 1:43:25 PM | message detail
Heh heh... poor me? That's awesome. Win or lose, I'm going to steal the show there! (But I'll win...!)
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"I need a weapon." - Master Chief
*Waves M$ flag*
Zeekade | Posted 7/9/2006 1:45:09 PM | message detail
I'm confident in saying that SM64 would bury Goldeneye.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/9/2006 1:46:15 PM | message detail
I made one parenthetical reference to Lopen. That's pretty much it.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Lopen | Posted 7/9/2006 1:50:36 PM | message detail
And I swear if someone calls me delusional because I picked Dante to win the Devil Division last year I'm gonna flip out!

He did better than the 7 to 1 favorite Magus !!
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
therealmnm | Posted 7/9/2006 2:01:18 PM | message detail
I can't believe people are taking Goldeneye to beat SM64. Goldeneye performed all of 3% better than SM64 in a direct matchup with Ocarina of Time. Which do you think got SFF'd more? Plus Goldeneye has aged to a lot of people while SM64 still remains as the best platformer of all time to quite a few people. I'd be surprised if Goldeneye even made a match out of it. List be damned, it's not like SM64 is that far behind it... and it had plenty of other Nintendo games to contend with.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/9/2006 2:13:48 PM | message detail
I'd take SM64 over Goldeneye, but only because of SM64DS. If not for that, I'd take GE in a close win, but SM64 was big enough that it would boost SM64 over GE.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/9/2006 2:15:07 PM | message detail
SM64 would whoop Goldeneye's ass and we all know it.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
JUST LIKE UR MOM LOLO AND URS TO LALA-Tombolo
steve illumina | Posted 7/9/2006 2:22:00 PM | message detail
Admired the world over...idolized on 7 continents....he is...

Steve Illumina

Well kiddies, fanbabies, noobs, and those PWN'd by The Pride of Konami...your resident satirist is back, with 4 more commentaries for the Lemmy Koopa Division...my 8-0 record on its way to being 12-0...

1) Super Mario Bros vs (8) Madden NFL
(4) Grand Theft Auto vs (5) Warcraft
(3) Sonic the Hedgehog vs (6) Devil May Cry
(2) Super Smash Bros. vs (7) Dragon Quest


Steve's Picks: Mario, Warcraft, Sonic, and Smash
Fanbabies Picks: Mario, GTA, Sonic, Smash
Where's My Tecmo Bowl? Pick: Madden
Hillary Clinton's Lawsuit Pick: GTA
2 outta 3 Aint Bad Pick: DMC
A truly unappreciated pick: Draqon Warrior/Quest/Freebie with 1 yr subscription to Nintendo Power...the most worthless gaming mag ever. I dare ANY noob to challenge me on that!

Mario vs Madden: Finally...after many years of talk and tribulation...sports games get a shot at GameFAQs...with Madden. Many gamers have grown up with Madden. And truly it deserves all the respect it gets for being such a great football series. But this is not SportsFAQs is it? If anything it is 2ndTierRPGFAQs considering all the duds that are filling spots in the bracket. Ceej should have stuck Star Ocean, Shadow Hearts, Harvest Moon, and Elder Scrolls in a fourpack and let them fight it out. That MIGHT have been a challenge to pick...oh well. The Father of Gaming, Mario, will dispatch Madden on a 1st and 12 from the 35 yard line...wont be no overtime on this one kiddies.

Editor's Note: Dolphins-Cowboys: My early super bowl pick!

GTA vs Warcraft: Ah...the 2nd of 3 challenging matches in the first round where both games actually have somewhat of a shot to win. The first was Halo and CV, and we know who won that dont we? The real series won! The series loved and respected by pretty much everyone. And deja vu...it shall happen again. Warcraft is another one of those series that is tough to hate. Its got prestige, its got respect, and its got a hardcore fanbase supplemented by those, like myself, who know it as a solid series. GTA? What has it ever done? The PS1 games were forgettable. The 3 that everyone think of when it comes to GTA...well...they are the kind of game you play through once, beat it, get a few laughs off it, then trade it in for a copy of Katamari Decency. GTA is only the Best. Series. Ever. at a few things: frequency of lawsuits, frequency of lies to Congress, and frequency of stupid sex scenes. Yah it will put up a good fight cause the fanbabies are stupid and think the GTA Triplets are da bomb. Sadly, they aint. The Orcs will rule the day. And we all know how Tommy Boy performs here dont we...think of him as yet another Master Chief...cant win the midcarder...LOL

Sonic vs DMC: I have seen peeps talkin bout this one...and I really dont see why. Sonic has a lot of loyalists, its been around for like 18 yrs, and its got the support of the Nintendites...who once were its mortal enemy. DMC? Should be an 8th seed. Not really that great of a series when u think about it. Sure the games were fun to play through, but they really did not do anything too memorable, certainly nothing ground breaking or revolutionary. Obviously nominated by peeps who had it sitting on their shelf and figured...welll...its got 3 games so its a series. Bah... Sonic will handle it.

SSMB vs DQ/DW: Poor Dragon Warrior Quest... this series gets like no love around here...and it is better than most of the 2nd tier RPG series. The NES games were classics, especially 3 and 4. We never got 5 and 6 in America.. a real pity. Im still hopin for a DQ Collection of the first 6 games... (You listenin Square?) However, all props aside to this underappreciated series, the king of party games this side of Goldeneye, SSBM, will handle it easily. So long, Slime...

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Steve Illumina: 'Sage of Board 8', Adored by Elites, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by Girly Gamers!
voltch | Posted 7/9/2006 2:23:17 PM | message detail
who will have the higher prediction support between GTA and Warcraft?
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come
Janus5000 | Posted 7/9/2006 2:29:52 PM | message detail
Probably GTA.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/9/2006 2:34:47 PM | message detail
GTA should easily have most of the brackets backing it up. Casual predictors aren't as weary of Blizzard rallying as Board 8 is.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/9/2006 2:35:11 PM | message detail
And by "not as weary," I of course mean that "they don't know about it."
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
transience | Posted 7/9/2006 2:37:19 PM | message detail
wow, KH is sucking with the day vote. I should never have changed my oracle prediction of 73%.

Mario/Madden... can't wait!
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xyzzy
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/9/2006 2:37:52 PM | message detail
So, it looks as if Kingdom Hearts slightly ahead of Mega Man X in terms of percentage.

Suikoden vs. Harvest Moon in the battle of ultimate fodder: who ya got?
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creativename | Posted 7/9/2006 2:38:09 PM | message detail
KH might barely break 73%? Hmph. 73% on such a weakling is a problem - I find it hard to see Harvest Moon being anything other than pure fodder (right? or is the picture just too cute or something?).

The pre-match hype for KH vs. Castlevania is going to be pretty big I think.
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yoblazer33 | Posted 7/9/2006 2:38:38 PM | message detail
Looks like my last post is missing a few words, hahaha.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
jonthomson | Posted 7/9/2006 2:52:42 PM | message detail
Match 9 - Super Mario Bros vs Madden NFL

It's World Cup final today, so let's have some football! Er, yes. I'm glad that Madden got in, I've played and owned various versions of it from 1993 up to the present day on three different consoles. I was also aware that if it got into the contest it'd do awfully, awfully badly for so many obvious reasons. Sports games will always do horribly, particularly when coupled with the huge amount of irrational EA hate that goes on around these parts. So it comes as no surprise that it enters against a contest heavyweight. And will get owned, heavily.

What of its opponent? Household name, series contains my second favourite game ever, I've written FAQs for two of the series, should win its division at a canter before coming unstuck against Final Fantasy. It comes runner up to Metroid in my favourites bracket. It's going to require some Super Bowl III kind of ownage to not put up huge numbers here, and I can't think of any football analogy to describe what a loss would entail.

Bracket says: Super Mario Bros
Favourites bracket says: Super Mario Bros
Vote says: Madden NFL
Prediction: Super Mario Bros by 86.26%

Fun fact of the day: Retrospectively, jonthomson cannot believe he was considering account betting that Kerrigan would avoid a doubling against Vincent.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
TRE Public Account | Posted 7/9/2006 3:00:16 PM | message detail
I would still tend to disagree with you about Sonic 2 being the strongest with such a small voting pool when it already lost in a larger voting pool to S&K, even if it is old.

As you said, it's old. It's not unreasonable for things to have changed quite a bit from then.

I still find little reason to give this any sort of credibility.

As I said before, the top of the list lines up pretty well with the Spring 2k4 X-Stats and the Top 100 list. It's reasonable to expect that the games left out of the Top 100 list or the Spring 2k4 Contest for reasons other than thier own strength will also fall roughly in line with the Genesis board list.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/9/2006 3:01:12 PM | message detail
Speaking of Sonic, is that the only poll we have regarding Sonic games? If so, I must have had a brain fart, because I thought Sonic 2 won it...
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Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/9/2006 3:02:22 PM | message detail
Yeah, that's the only one I think. It's definitely the most "recent" anyway. I stopped CTRL+Fing when I got to that one.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Samurai7 | Posted 7/9/2006 3:06:30 PM | message detail
Does anyone else notice people say "This bracket is more predictable so we should have a perfect this time." every contest?
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Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/9/2006 3:07:25 PM | message detail
Of course. Although, no one said that for SC2K5... and with good reason.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
NewLib | Posted 7/9/2006 3:07:58 PM | message detail
Suikoden would beat HM and I dont even think it would be a nailbiter.
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Where am I?
Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/9/2006 3:11:48 PM | message detail
As you said, it's old. It's not unreasonable for things to have changed quite a bit from then.

Yes, yes it is. Why would Sonic 2 have become more popular than S3/S&K/S3&K on GF since the original poll?

And besides that, the list you posted is crap anyway. Gunstar Heroes is #2, while it got third last in the 2k4 stats. We'd be better off just ignoring that list completely, since it contains no useful data whatsoever.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
HaRRicH | Posted 7/9/2006 3:13:03 PM | message detail
Heh...MMX/KH actually being potentially close? Man, I dunno. I'd take KH and feel decent enough about it, but yeah, the scare is there.
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creativename | Posted 7/9/2006 3:33:22 PM | message detail
Does anyone else notice people say "This bracket is more predictable so we should have a perfect this time." every contest?

Don't think I ever posted that, but I was certainly thinking it.

Even the upsets we were looking at weren't that uncommon to pick, and more importantly none of them seemed a 2-match upset. So even if 2-3 of the upsets panned out a perfect was likely. The problem with CV is that it might be a 2-match upset. And if that happens, and we see 1 or 2 other upsets in the 1st round, the odds of a perfect diminish rapidly.
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yoblazer33 | Posted 7/9/2006 3:33:50 PM | message detail
I get the feeling that this contest is showing us what SpC2K4 failed to: as strong as the newest games/series look on paper, if you put them against some older, more established entrants, it's a whole new ballgame.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
creativename | Posted 7/9/2006 3:34:17 PM | message detail
Heh...MMX/KH actually being potentially close? Man, I dunno. I'd take KH and feel decent enough about it, but yeah, the scare is there

Kingdom Hearts over Mega Man X? That sounds like a real stretch to me. Even if Kingdom Hearts was as strong as expected I wouldn't know about that.

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NewLib | Posted 7/9/2006 3:35:04 PM | message detail
Well maybe if SC2k4 wasnt a SFF landmine, we would have learned our lesson then.
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Where am I?
creativename | Posted 7/9/2006 3:37:34 PM | message detail
I get the feeling that this contest is showing us what SpC2K4 failed to: as strong as the newest games/series look on paper, if you put them against some older, more established entrants, it's a whole new ballgame.

Good point. Series a very different animal than games, this has been clearly demonstrated.

Which makes me very curious to see how Final Fantasy does. Going against a Blizzard PC RPG seems like a recipe for underperformance, but...it's Final Fantasy, the series.

Truly, series have to be stronger than characters. Which means Final Fantasy is in all likelihood going to be the strongest thing we've ever seen in one of these polls. Stronger than Sephiroth, Cloud, Link, and Final Fantasy VII. it will be very interesting to see how it does.
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creativename | Posted 7/9/2006 3:38:30 PM | message detail
Well maybe if SC2k4 wasnt a SFF landmine, we would have learned our lesson then.

Even then I think we've learned that games can be much, much weaker than the series they come from.
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DeepHyren12 | Posted 7/9/2006 3:38:44 PM | message detail
I think people are taking the whole "people are voting for series" a little too far. We've only seen it in one match, if indeed CV/Halo can be attributed to it.
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"Patriotism is clearly the greatest danger to which civilization is at present exposed" --Bertrand Russell
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/9/2006 4:03:53 PM | message detail
I may be alone here, but does anyone else feel like this contest has been going on for much longer than eight days? For me, it's probably because we've gotten so much fodder for debate and theories since the contest has begun, so it seems like we've already gone through many more days.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
Slowflake | Posted 7/9/2006 4:05:07 PM | message detail
Nah, if anything I feel Zelda/Civ was just yesterday.
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I do declare, old chap! Even a Doom score could not possibly justify the unwarranted combustion of kittens!
Tai | Posted 7/9/2006 4:07:14 PM | message detail
I may be alone here, but does anyone else feel like this contest has been going on for much longer than eight days?

Well, I went on vacation on July 1st, so I of course wasn't here for the start.

But, before that...yeah. A little.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/9/2006 4:07:27 PM | message detail
Yeah, it does feel long, but fodder-matches always make the day feel longer.
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Anal Storage | Posted 7/9/2006 4:16:53 PM | message detail
Yeah, Halo did not deserve to win yesterday. It simply cannot compare. Castlevania is a far more important series.

I completely disagree... Halo is quite possibly the only thing that saved Halo from completely floundering. It has successfully breathed life into a console, and given it a reason to come back for a second generation. Not to say CV hasn't done anything, but I think Halo is a far more important series.

This is the same old stuff that KH always pulls. Underperforming in Round 1 (Soul Calibur, HK-47, CATS [vs. Ansem], Agent 47, one could even make a case about Sora "underperforming" against Aeris), and then surprising in Round 2 (Starcraft with the loss, Ryu H. with the easy win, Ganondorf [hey, Ansem was the second strongest in that division], Alucard with the easy win).

Usually followed by a sound defeat in Round 3, but the point is that I wouldn't count KH out against CV yet, even though it's failing to get the tripling against a series like Harvest Moon.


KH could have got 85% today and I would called it on HM's weakness rather than KH's strength, regardless of what happened today I would have thought CV had the sound advantage going into KH/CV.

Don't jump the gun on CV/KH just yet. HM is stronger than you think. I think it's safe to say KH won't be beating MG, but it should still be the favorite against CV.

Why? Why? Why? Why in the bloody hell should it be the favorite agaisnt CV? It should not have ever even been the favorite against Halo. This board wants to make sweet love to KH, and would rip off Halo's sack and shove it down it's throat if it were possible. Halo has done everything in the world to show that it was stronger than Kingdom Hearts. Now you want to throw in KH2 and Halo 2 (a ****ing juggernaut in sales mind you), and you're expecting KH2 to make up the 3.5% it needs to be on an even field with Halo, that's also while negating any affect Halo 2 might have had. Now, if you have it dead even with Halo, you're expecting it to not be defeated by 10% like CV did to Halo, and you're expecting out of this world boosts caused by KH2.

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I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien
HaRRicH | Posted 7/9/2006 4:25:17 PM | message detail
^^i like the way dis guy thinkz
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Anal Storage | Posted 7/9/2006 4:26:07 PM | message detail
I can't believe people are taking Goldeneye to beat SM64. Goldeneye performed all of 3% better than SM64 in a direct matchup with Ocarina of Time. Which do you think got SFF'd more? Plus Goldeneye has aged to a lot of people while SM64 still remains as the best platformer of all time to quite a few people. I'd be surprised if Goldeneye even made a match out of it. List be damned, it's not like SM64 is that far behind it... and it had plenty of other Nintendo games to contend with.

I would have given my opinion on SM64/007, but mnm summed it up perfectly, read it again!

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I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien
Anal Storage | Posted 7/9/2006 4:26:50 PM | message detail
I completely disagree... Halo is quite possibly the only thing that saved Halo from completely floundering.

Err... Halo is quite possibly the only thing that saved XBox from completely floundering.

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I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien
Anal Storage | Posted 7/9/2006 4:34:30 PM | message detail
Oh! I almost forgot to make my bold prediction.

BOLD PREDICTION: Super Mario Bros. will set a new contest record for highest percentage against an opponent. And if it doesn't... it'll be extremely close.

Okay that second part wasn't that bold, but still ! !

In a related issue, I keep refreshing the link to the Madden/SMB pic every 5 minutes. I pray to god Ceej makes it Madden holding up a tube of Tinactin. Granted that would foil my bold prediction by joke votes alone, but I wouldn't mind so much, because I would have a boner for a week.

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I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien
HaRRicH | Posted 7/9/2006 4:36:45 PM | message detail
I have a suggestion for the Poll of the Day.
Message From HaRRicH at 2006-07-09 17:50:23
My suggestion is more of a comment than anything...but PLEASE have a picture of John Madden in the Super Mario Bros./Madden NFL match tomorrow instead of some random player or a big football or something.
Feedback Status: Open - Your feedback has been sent but not yet responded to by GameFAQs.


It sucks that he probably won't check it before he makes the picture...but man, it really needs to happen.
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