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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 307

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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/10/2006 2:00:58 PM | message detail
Well, the one thing that makes me wary is that gamers don't seem too endeared to the GTA games, but instead seem to favor the series as a whole.

Case in point -- let's say they make three more GTA games...real GTA games, not things like LCS. We'll label them X, Y, and Z -- X comes first, Y comes second, Z is the most recent. Here's how I see the GTA hierarchy going:

GTA Z
GTA 3
GTA Y
GTA X
GTA San Andreas
GTA Vice City
...the rest don't really matter.

I think GTA 3 will *always* be the second strongest GTA game, as it was the one that truly popularized it and endeared people to the series. It won't have the advantage of recency on its side, but it won't be forgotten as newer ones come out. I think Vice City has lost much of its edge in the shadow of San Andreas, which is why I'd take MGS2 over it now even though it was clearly stronger than it in 2k4.

I'm not sure what to make of this theory, or even its implications in terms of this contest -- it just happens to be what I believe.
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Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/10/2006 2:02:38 PM | message detail
Meh, Halo/Starcraft had the biggest votals of the Games Contest by far. Doesn't stop me from disrespecting it.
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Commit it to memory.
therealmnm | Posted 7/10/2006 2:06:29 PM | message detail
I think GTA 3 will *always* be the second strongest GTA game, as it was the one that truly popularized it and endeared people to the series. It won't have the advantage of recency on its side, but it won't be forgotten as newer ones come out. I think Vice City has lost much of its edge in the shadow of San Andreas, which is why I'd take MGS2 over it now even though it was clearly stronger than it in 2k4.

Why is SA so low? Is it because of the hip-hop image? If not, for all we know, it might be the Super Mario Bros. 3 of the series...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/10/2006 2:09:25 PM | message detail
Hey, SA's only 'low' because it's not as recent as X, Y, or Z. Assuming each game sticks to the same formula as the last (just with the emphasis on making things BIGGER), that's how I see the hierarchy going -- recency playing the major role, with GTA3 being the one to buck the trend.

Doesn't say much for individual personal preference.
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Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 7/10/2006 2:15:18 PM | message detail
people are using a Mario/Madden match to justify Mario winning the whole contest? come on now, Zelda would beat it just as badly. it's fun to watch and all, but don't get caught up in it. that's like saying Snake had 2k4 locked up because he destroyed Tanner.
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xyzzy
TRE Public Account | Posted 7/10/2006 2:16:59 PM | message detail
Meh, Halo/Starcraft had the biggest votals of the Games Contest by far. Doesn't stop me from disrespecting it.

That's because the poll was moved lower on the main page the very next day. All the matches after Halo vs Starcraft were put at a serious disadvantage vote totalwise.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/10/2006 2:18:38 PM | message detail
Well, yeah, but I was more referring to the majority of the first round (which was before Halo/Starcraft). Granted we didn't have too many close matches, but eh.
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Commit it to memory.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 2:19:22 PM | message detail
We also had to deal with a double poll for a lot of the first round matches before Halo/StarCraft.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/10/2006 2:21:10 PM | message detail
Hmm? I remember a PotD running alongside some polls, but I didn't remember that in the polls before Halo/Starcraft. Must be my fuzzy memory.
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Commit it to memory.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 2:24:50 PM | message detail
At the 17:20 mark, this match has 91589 votes. To compare with other matches at the same time:

Zelda/Civilization - 85889
Metal Gear/Soul Calibur - 86891
Castlevania/Halo - 87751
Kingdom Hearts/Harvest Moon - 85341

Super Mario Brothers has 84636 individual votes.
The Legend of Zelda had 77089 individual votes.

Holy crap, SMB might outdraw some matches by itself.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 2:25:36 PM | message detail
Hmm? I remember a PotD running alongside some polls, but I didn't remember that in the polls before Halo/Starcraft.

I distinctly remember Mario 3/Metal Gear having one, and probably a few others.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/10/2006 2:27:15 PM | message detail
For some reason, this match makes LoZ seem much less intimidating to Final Fantasy than it used to be. I guess getting 100,000 votes on Civ doesn't impress as much when Mario's looking to smash the record just a week or two later.
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Commit it to memory.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 2:28:45 PM | message detail
Man, why can't FF get a first round opponent it can break 100,000 on?

Now if it goes out and does it on Diablo...I think we could safely call the contest over.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
swirIdude | Posted 7/10/2006 2:42:31 PM | message detail
I distinctly remember Mario 3/Metal Gear having one, and probably a few others.

I think those stopped after the first 2 matches.
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Xbox 360 melts disks!
And people made jokes about the PS3 being a grill. ~bokunokuso
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 2:43:45 PM | message detail
No, Ceej had a poll a few days before MP/WW asking what people thought the highest rated GameCube game of all-time was, and it essentially ruined the match because TWW won easily.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/10/2006 2:45:25 PM | message detail
This is insane from SMB. That said, it's still going down in the Semis, which is a shame. I'll be voting for it, at least.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 2:49:16 PM | message detail
Okay, since it is now obvious that SMB will break 100,000 votes, let's try this:

Buy or Sell: Super Mario Brothers will win by 100,000+ votes.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
rpgapzx | Posted 7/10/2006 2:52:42 PM | message detail
BUY

Quoting myself...
Not-So-Bold Prediction: Super Mario Brothers will surpass 111K.

At 16:00 yesterday,
Kingdom Hearts had 57,581 votes, 70.45% of its eventual total(81,729).
Harvest Moon had 21759 votes, 72.41% of its eventual total(30,051).

At 16:00 last Monday,
Megaman X had 54,609 votes, 73.53% of its eventual total(74,270).
Suikoden had 20693 votes, 73.86% of its eventual total(28,018).

At 16:00 on another big blow out,
The Legend of Zelda had 70,988 votes, 70.87% of its eventual total(100,163).
Civilization had 8,193 votes, 73.35% of its eventual total(11169).

At 16:00 today,
Super Mario Brothers currently has 78,035 votes.
If the series has 70% of it's total votes, it will end with 111,479 votes
If the series has 73% of it's total votes, it will end with 106,897 votes.


On the other hand, Madden is NOT on pace to score 10,000 votes.

Thus, SMB will win by 100k.
red sox 777 | Posted 7/10/2006 2:54:27 PM | message detail
Man, why can't FF get a first round opponent it can break 100,000 on?

It most certainly can! Cloud only received 18,000 fewer votes against Link than against CATS back in 2003, and historically, FF has been able to outdraw either Zelda or Mario. The quality of the opponent does not matter all that much in determiningthe winner's vote total in a blowout, since a stronger loser primarily draws more votes for itself, without removing many from the winner.

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July 2006 Contest --- Score: 7/8 --- Rank: T-3101
Today's Pick: Super Mario Bros. --- Vote: SMB
rpgapzx | Posted 7/10/2006 3:01:48 PM | message detail
At 18:00 yesterday,
Kingdom Hearts had 64,534 votes, 78.96% of its eventual total(81,729).
Harvest Moon had 24,164 votes, 80.41% of its eventual total(30,051).

At 18:00 last Monday,
Megaman X had 60,865 votes, 81.95% of its eventual total(74,270).
Suikoden had 23,015 votes, 82,14% of its eventual total(28,018).

At 18:00 on another big blow out,
The Legend of Zelda had 79,865 votes, 79.56% of its eventual total(100,163).
Civilization had 9,112 votes, 81.58% of its eventual total(11169).

At 18:00 today,
Super Mario Brothers currently has 87,773 votes.
If the series has 79% of it's total votes, it will end with 111,105 votes
If the series has 82% of it's total votes, it will end with 107,040 votes.
therealmnm | Posted 7/10/2006 3:01:56 PM | message detail
It most certainly can! Cloud only received 18,000 fewer votes against Link than against CATS back in 2003, and historically, FF has been able to outdraw either Zelda or Mario. The quality of the opponent does not matter all that much in determiningthe winner's vote total in a blowout, since a stronger loser primarily draws more votes for itself, without removing many from the winner.

Uhhh, I'm pretty sure he meant why couldn't Final Fantasy get a similarly weak opponent like Civilization or Madden in this contest as opposed to being matched up against Diablo.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 3:48:20 PM | message detail
Odd, both Super Mario Brothers and Madden got the poll freeze at 7500 votes exactly.

They were about 18 hours apart though.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
cyko | Posted 7/10/2006 3:56:23 PM | message detail

Buy or Sell: Super Mario Brothers will win by 100,000+ votes.


BUY
- SMB only needs about 18,000 votes inabout 5 hours. i think it can pull that off.



I think GTA 3 will *always* be the second strongest GTA game, as it was the one that truly popularized it and endeared people to the series. It won't have the advantage of recency on its side, but it won't be forgotten as newer ones come out. I think Vice City has lost much of its edge in the shadow of San Andreas, which is why I'd take MGS2 over it now even though it was clearly stronger than it in 2k4.

I'm not sure what to make of this theory, or even its implications in terms of this contest -- it just happens to be what I believe.


i think Karma Hunter's both right and wrong here. he's right about recency playing a large part in GTA's popularity. there actually was a favorite GTA game poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1831

Grand Theft Auto 5.58% 2803
Grand Theft Auto 2 4.86% 2444
Grand Theft Auto III 20.41% 10254
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 25.28% 12704
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas 43.87% 22046
TOTAL VOTES 50251


SA, being the most popular, easily overshadowed VC.however, it didn't quite slip down past GTA3.so, GTA3 might have more staying power than the other GTA games as newer sequels are introduced into the series, but it might not be enough to keep in the second or even third most popular spot forever. recency definitely plays a huge part in the series, though.

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"In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson
cyko | Posted 7/10/2006 3:58:25 PM | message detail
and i am in no way claiming that SMB will win the contest based on this one match, but if it did, the best score any guru could get would be 56/80. not one of the 108+1 gurus even took SMB over FF.

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"In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson
charmander6000 | Posted 7/10/2006 4:01:25 PM | message detail
If SMB drops .08% it'll tie Mega Man.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 4:01:39 PM | message detail
And it looks like this match has a realistic chance at 115,000 votes.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 4:12:01 PM | message detail
Heh, looks like rallying for Warcraft has begun. Once again, like the rally attempts for Kerrigan last year, it's not going as the rallyers are hoping, and the results are rather humorous.

http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/thread.aspx?ForumName=wow-general&ThreadID=9011474
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Master Moltar | Posted 7/10/2006 4:15:36 PM | message detail
I'm sensing the attitude of "Why bother when it's just going to get crushed against Mario."

FEAR THE ALMIGHTY POWER OF BLIZZARD VOTE RALLYING!!
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Super Mario Bros. vs. Madden - Bracket: SMB - Vote: SMB (7/8)
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/10/2006 4:17:25 PM | message detail
8. Re: vote for World of Warcraft! | 7/10/2006 4:00:49 PM PDT
Quote this post Reply to this post
GTA FTW, why would these games even go up agianst each other they are in two different classes of genre


Heh.
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"It's two children and a duck. Be careful!" ~ Leo, Suikoden III
cyko | Posted 7/10/2006 4:18:57 PM | message detail
wouldn't it be awesome if rallying from n00bs got out of control and everyone from WoW voted for GTA just to spite the n00bs?

i can totally see that happening.

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"In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson
longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/10/2006 4:23:50 PM | message detail
Mario's breaking a record :OOOO

>_>
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JUST LIKE UR MOM LOLO AND URS TO LALA-Tombolo
rpgapzx | Posted 7/10/2006 4:26:35 PM | message detail
And it looks like this match has a realistic chance at 115,000 votes.

False/Sell. SMB will end with 109k+ or - 3k.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 4:27:14 PM | message detail
I'm not talking about Mario reaching 115,000. I'm talking about the match itself.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
rpgapzx | Posted 7/10/2006 4:28:25 PM | message detail
I'm not talking about Mario reaching 115,000. I'm talking about the match itself.

Silly me. In that case, this match will reach 115k and has an outside shot at 120k.
Kratos_42 | Posted 7/10/2006 4:34:46 PM | message detail
A record, or a dozen? I'm glad I've have it beating out Sonic, I almost had Sonic pulling of an upset. I'd regret that. The question is, will it be playing against Sonic?
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 4:35:15 PM | message detail
Yes, it will be facing Sonic.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
swirIdude | Posted 7/10/2006 4:37:05 PM | message detail
Personally id rahter see Wow vs Warhammer That would get people out to vote.

XD Wow.
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Xbox 360 melts disks!
And people made jokes about the PS3 being a grill. ~bokunokuso
rpgapzx | Posted 7/10/2006 4:38:04 PM | message detail
Yes, it will be facing Sonic.
Sorry, Sonic is on the OTHER side of the division.

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SC2k6: 8/8 Leaderboard #7: ProfessorBen
Today: Bracket: Mario Vote: Mario
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 4:52:38 PM | message detail
SMB has passed Cloud Strife's vote total against CATS with 4+ hours to go.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
rpgapzx | Posted 7/10/2006 5:04:08 PM | message detail
At 20:00 yesterday,
Kingdom Hearts had 70,963 votes, 86.83% of its eventual total(81,729).
Harvest Moon had 26,329 votes, 87.61% of its eventual total(30,051).

At 20:00 last Monday,
Megaman X had 66,130 votes, 89.04% of its eventual total(74,270).
Suikoden had 24,952 votes, 89.06% of its eventual total(28,018).

At 20:00 on another big blow out,
The Legend of Zelda had 87335 votes, 87.19% of its eventual total(100,163).
Civilization had 9,885 votes, 88.50% of its eventual total(11169).

At 20:00 today,
Super Mario Brothers currently has 96,044 votes.
If the series has 87% of it's total votes, it will end with 110,395 votes
If the series has 89% of it's total votes, it will end with 107,914 votes.

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SC2k6: 8/8 Leaderboard #7: ProfessorBen
Today: Bracket: Mario Vote: Mario
Tediz247 | Posted 7/10/2006 5:05:17 PM | message detail
Aww, it's slowed down a bit.
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rpgapzx | Posted 7/10/2006 5:07:13 PM | message detail
Yeah. I think we can pencil in 109k for now, which would just about give it the 100k victory.
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SC2k6: 8/8 Leaderboard #7: ProfessorBen
Today: Bracket: Mario Vote: Mario
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 5:07:27 PM | message detail
It's okay. SMB is about on pace with Zelda/Civilization in terms of vote totals.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
rpgapzx | Posted 7/10/2006 5:17:37 PM | message detail
Leonhart: I thought you wrote that this match was on par with Zelda/Civ. I keep misreading that for some reason. Silly me.
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SC2k6: 8/8 Leaderboard #7: ProfessorBen
Today: Bracket: Mario Vote: Mario
SonicRaptor | Posted 7/10/2006 5:18:24 PM | message detail
I still find it amazing that the contest is up to 2003 levels of voting in a short span of time.
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"Never argue with a fool, people may not tell the difference" - Murphy's Law
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/10/2006 5:18:33 PM | message detail
Heh, it's about 8000 ahead of Zelda/Civilization with Madden, but it's about even just by itself.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
rpgapzx | Posted 7/10/2006 5:20:47 PM | message detail
Exactly. I realized that before I made a fool out of myself... again.
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SC2k6: 8/8 Leaderboard #7: ProfessorBen
Today: Bracket: Mario Vote: Mario
charmander6000 | Posted 7/10/2006 5:20:50 PM | message detail
Biggest Lead right there beating LoZ/Civilization.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
greatmagnus | Posted 7/10/2006 5:21:09 PM | message detail
so close
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Ye Not Guilty.
Draco1214 | Posted 7/10/2006 5:21:13 PM | message detail
lol vote rallying
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