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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 307

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Ed Bellis | Posted 7/8/2006 10:20:35 PM | message detail
KonamiFAQs indeed.





*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/tre/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/top10/top10_100.html


!yawa tsoP
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This was Ed Bellis.
Anal Storage | Posted 7/8/2006 10:22:20 PM | message detail
And I was just about to make it too!

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Explicit Content
I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien
Applekidjosh | Posted 7/8/2006 10:23:12 PM | message detail
WHAT THE CRUNK SO SOON?!
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Kingdom Hearts > Metal Gear. BOOK IT
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/8/2006 10:24:04 PM | message detail
Although this will sound incredibly stupid considering yesterday, do you guys think that Kingdom Hearts will take the day vote completely?

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=29013865

^My contest analysis, now with 90% more suck


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 10:24:40 PM | message detail
The Stats Topic just got ED BELLIS'D!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Commit it to memory.
FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/8/2006 10:26:34 PM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts will take the day vote to such an extent that anyone considering Metal Gear (or Castlevania) to beat it will run home crying to his or her mother.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
Anal Storage | Posted 7/8/2006 10:27:14 PM | message detail
This is going to be one Ed Bellis of a topic.

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Explicit Content
I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien
longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/8/2006 10:27:58 PM | message detail
lol bellis-stats
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
JUST LIKE UR MOM LOLO AND URS TO LALA-Tombolo
Ed Bellis | Posted 7/8/2006 10:29:38 PM | message detail
I would have posted this sooner, but I spent way too long trying to come up with something witty to post in the first post. Then I gave up - and THIS IS TRUE STORY
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This was Ed Bellis. Summer 2005 Fanfiction Project:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=28403845
LessThan3Presea | Posted 7/8/2006 10:47:18 PM | message detail
Interesting.
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"A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul
creativename | Posted 7/8/2006 10:57:51 PM | message detail
Not a very impressive early performance by Kingdom Hearts. It could be worse but it's not good. The Castlevania > Kingdom Hearts bandwagon has some justification IMO.

Not something I saw coming.

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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
creativename | Posted 7/8/2006 10:59:41 PM | message detail
Though if one were to use some sketchy logic, one could say that this indicates seeding is some sort of indication of strength. And thus justify TES>SF, MM>MK and a close Warcraft/GTA match (though I think that match will be close anyway).

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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
LessThan3Presea | Posted 7/8/2006 11:01:03 PM | message detail
Yeah, Suikoden sure showed us how much being the higher seed is worth!
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"A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/9/2006 12:33:49 AM | message detail
I forgot that suikoden was actually the higher seed.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
Draco1214 | Posted 7/9/2006 12:36:51 AM | message detail
*tag*
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/9/2006 12:50:21 AM | message detail
Nothing from CV/Halo cracked any all-time top tens, BUT a couple of things (prediction percentage and Halo being an impressive loser) landed in the 25 range.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
greatone10 | Posted 7/9/2006 1:10:29 AM | message detail
What is really funny is that the Ultimate Loser of this tournament, assuming FF wins in the finals, could rank very highly in the x-stats.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
"I set my ATM card's number to "0001" because I'm number one!" - Manfred von Karma
MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/9/2006 1:27:31 AM | message detail
the last four updates have KH not even breaking 70%.
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* Is Dranze *
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/9/2006 1:31:05 AM | message detail
Just played the original Castlevania for a bit.

Yeah, Halo did not deserve to win yesterday. It simply cannot compare. Castlevania is a far more important series.

Speaking of which, I think the series in this contest that aren't represented well are screwed. Halo sewed the seeds of it, Kingdom Hearts isn't looking so hot right now, and I think SSB is in trouble against Sonic. Big trouble. The voters are very smart in this contest, and I've been lurking around. The "it's not a series" mentality is all over the place.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/9/2006 1:32:49 AM | message detail
Just played the original Castlevania for a bit.

Great game you just played.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/9/2006 1:35:51 AM | message detail
It's such a glitchy piece of crap, but I love it.

It's really quite hilarious. Go up one floor, and you die if you fall into a pit. Jump in the air forward, and there's no going backwards. And don't even THINK about jumping while on a staircase or using your subweapon while at the bottom of one! Oh yeah, and no jumping onto them either. That's cheating.

Reminds me of Ninja Gaiden, except it isn't made hard just for the sake of being hard.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/9/2006 1:37:26 AM | message detail
I was surprised when I went to the halo 2 board yesterday to see how halo fans were reacting. Most of topics complaining about halo losing were met with responses by halo fans (you can tell they were halo fans and not people coming for the same reason I did, because they often had halo related names, or xbl gamer tags in their sigs) stating that it was losing because CV was the better series. The majority of the board seemed to think halo didn't deserve to win, and nobody seemed to really care enoguh that it was losing to try and rally for it.

CV could be the starcraft/diablo of this contest in terms of prediction percentage. Nowhere near as low as 7% of course, but I don't think more then 15-20% would have it beating KH.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/9/2006 1:39:19 AM | message detail
I still don't think this one thing has sunk in with all of us quite yet: Castlevania won the day vote against Halo. I don't think any of us saw that coming.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
Fett0001 | Posted 7/9/2006 1:42:15 AM | message detail
Did Halo even win an update?
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/9/2006 1:44:17 AM | message detail
And don't even THINK about jumping while on a staircase

That's a Simon Belmont Trademark. He never learns to jump while on stairs!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Gooper Blooper | Posted 7/9/2006 1:45:40 AM | message detail
It won at least five, but none of them by much.
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People are going to buy two machines. They're going to buy an Xbox and they're going to buy a Wii... for the price of one PS3. - Peter Moore
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/9/2006 1:47:30 AM | message detail
From dragoontheguy Posted 7/9/2006 4:39:19 AM #023
I still don't think this one thing has sunk in with all of us quite yet: Castlevania won the day vote against Halo. I don't think any of us saw that coming.

Oh it's sunk in alright. It's just impossible to respond to, because it's never happened before.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/9/2006 1:51:58 AM | message detail
I still don't think this one thing has sunk in with all of us quite yet: Castlevania won the day vote against Halo. I don't think any of us saw that coming.

It's pretty crazy that it happened, but there's a good explanation as to why it occurred. Castlevania spans so many systems and has the potential to appeal to so many different fanbases that it was able to snatch up the day vote. Very, very impressive, no doubt, but not completely without reason for why it happened. At the least, it never made any sense for Castlevania to have a bad day vote along the lines of SotN or Alucard.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
transience | Posted 7/9/2006 2:21:18 AM | message detail
Castlevania 1 is fun, but its control drives me insane. I have the same problem with the original Metroid.

this is about where I pegged KH. Sora's pretty good with the day vote, so I expect this to hit about 75% by daytime. I wouldn't really expect much more than that.
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xyzzy
jonthomson | Posted 7/9/2006 3:08:00 AM | message detail
Not even managing a trebling? KH is screwed next round.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
greatone10 | Posted 7/9/2006 3:23:31 AM | message detail
With this in mind, how well do you think SSB will do against Dragon Quest?

At this rate, I wouldn't be shocked if DQ gets 30% of the vote.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
"I set my ATM card's number to "0001" because I'm number one!" - Manfred von Karma
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/9/2006 3:27:07 AM | message detail
I've got Super Smash Bros. netting 70% in my analysis crew write-up. Dragon Quest may not be a particularly strong RPG series, but it should definitely be stronger than some of the very weak RPGs in this bracket.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
greatone10 | Posted 7/9/2006 3:32:51 AM | message detail
Well, DQ has the whole "true" series advantage that Star Ocean didn't have (2 games available in America, 4 total and it faces Pokemon), and is up against a 2-game series, unlike Suikoden.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
"I set my ATM card's number to "0001" because I'm number one!" - Manfred von Karma
jonthomson | Posted 7/9/2006 3:43:38 AM | message detail
I have SSB in the high seventies, I may re-evaluate that down a few points.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
transience | Posted 7/9/2006 3:45:56 AM | message detail
DQ beats both SO and Suikoden, that's for sure. it's a highly respected series with a lot of games. my main question is if people will recognize the Dragon Quest name. it wasn't used here until 8.

SSB should take this pretty easily though. I'd say... 70%.
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xyzzy
jonthomson | Posted 7/9/2006 3:57:23 AM | message detail
Just saw yesterday's prediction percentage. Ouch.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
greatone10 | Posted 7/9/2006 4:13:46 AM | message detail
Well, I bet 8 is the most well known of the series, and it has shares enough attributes with the other games that people could make the connection between DQ8 and the original Dragon Warrior. Even if they don't make this connection, no one is going to mistake Dragon Quest for a single game. After all, the VIII in the title implies it is part of a huge series.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
"I set my ATM card's number to "0001" because I'm number one!" - Manfred von Karma
Sir Chris | Posted 7/9/2006 6:03:34 AM | message detail
DQ wins by 1.

>_> <_<.

Okay maybe not.

I think SSB has the potential to either show its strength with 80-20 like asswhooping, or show weakness by dropping below 70.

For drama's sake, somewhere in between is likely.
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Sir Chris, # 45 on the Best.Series.Ever leaderboard
Next up: Kingdom Hearts Vs. Harvest Moon
mannamvamsi002 | Posted 7/9/2006 6:05:23 AM | message detail
KH has got this down.
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Not changing sig until I feel like it
Started April 3, 2006
jonthomson | Posted 7/9/2006 6:06:55 AM | message detail
Looks like KH has finally stop leaking percentage points and might edge up a little bit.

It's still not getting a tripling though.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
Phediuk | Posted 7/9/2006 6:36:09 AM | message detail
Jesus KH, only 72%?

*waves goodbye to bracket*
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
Phediuk | Posted 7/9/2006 7:08:35 AM | message detail
The original Castlevania sucks BTW. Check out my review.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/9/2006 7:16:02 AM | message detail
If there's 3 things we learned from yesterday's match it's:

1. The voters are voting for which series they think it better, not which series has their favourite game in it. This makes things look good for the Sonic > SSB upset.
2. The 2004 X-Stats are now completely unreliable
3. The strength of a series =/= the strength of it's strongest game, which bodes well for Megaman > Mario Kart

TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Sir Chris | Posted 7/9/2006 7:16:50 AM | message detail
Is now a good time to mention I have both of those?
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Sir Chris, # 45 on the Best.Series.Ever leaderboard
Next up: Kingdom Hearts Vs. Harvest Moon
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/9/2006 8:34:24 AM | message detail
From Phediuk Posted 7/9/2006 10:08:35 AM #042
The original Castlevania sucks BTW. Check out my review.

A game not aging well doesn't mean anything to me.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
woocls | Posted 7/9/2006 8:45:12 AM | message detail
lol I actually picked DQ over SSB.... what was I smokin!?
Kratos_42 | Posted 7/9/2006 8:54:36 AM | message detail
Only God and I know the answer. I'm scared though, that KH can't pull it off against CV... It should, it has much more appeal to people than Halo, and I personally think it is a better series, if you believe that CV64 negates CV Symphony. Which I do. God, I hate CV64.
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/9/2006 8:57:42 AM | message detail
And I don't know about you, but I have yet to see one intelligent reason why Halo is a bad game. I've seen plenty of reasons why it's average, and plenty of people saying "lawl mainstream = t3h suckz0rz!!!!!!!!111111 i am t3h h4rdc0r3 l33tz0rz!!!!!!11111111", but none that have given a reason why Halo is worse than mediocre.

Kingdom Hearts on the other hand has a LOT of people that didn't like the pointless and boring button mashing aspect of the game, which lacked a story to make up for the completely bull **** gameplay.


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Master Moltar | Posted 7/9/2006 9:03:56 AM | message detail
This is the same old stuff that KH always pulls. Underperforming in Round 1 (Soul Calibur, HK-47, CATS [vs. Ansem], Agent 47, one could even make a case about Sora "underperforming" against Aeris), and then surprising in Round 2 (Starcraft with the loss, Ryu H. with the easy win, Ganondorf [hey, Ansem was the second strongest in that division], Alucard with the easy win).

Usually followed by a sound defeat in Round 3, but the point is that I wouldn't count KH out against CV yet, even though it's failing to get the tripling against a series like Harvest Moon.

That doesn't change the fact that CV looks extremely good going into Round 2, unlike in 2005 where both Sora and Alucard looked less-than-impressive before their match.
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Kingdom Hearts vs. Harvest Moon - Bracket: KH - Vote: KH (6/7)
Kratos_42 | Posted 7/9/2006 9:05:47 AM | message detail
Hope so.... Then again, you don't have a perfect bracket, so maybe I should just trust myself....
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising.