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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 306

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/8/2006 11:05:41 AM | message detail
Halo 37.24%
Castlevania SOTN 20.27%

lol, X-Stats



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/tre/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/top10/top10_100.html


!yawa tsoP
Big Bob | Posted 7/8/2006 11:05:56 AM | message detail
We got owned.
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v674/ImBigBob/PokemonvsMetroid.jpg
Draco1214 | Posted 7/8/2006 11:06:01 AM | message detail
Sonic > SSB
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
OCAdam | Posted 7/8/2006 11:06:25 AM | message detail
SSB>>>>>>>>>>Sonic

Just pure overkill.
---
http://www.fanfiction.net/s/3000439/1/
Through the Fire and the Flames, my newest Fanfiction. Review today!
xp1337 | Posted 7/8/2006 11:06:33 AM | message detail
It's not over! Activate 8000 Vote Barrier! Get B.Net!

...

...

Yeah, lol Xstats
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SpC2k6 (06/06) Castlevania v Halo
therealmnm | Posted 7/8/2006 11:06:56 AM | message detail
Soma Cruz and Julius Belmont for SC2k6!
---
Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Kyle Bowen | Posted 7/8/2006 11:07:58 AM | message detail
-_-

KB
XxSoulxX | Posted 7/8/2006 11:08:34 AM | message detail
Knuckles > Castlevania
--- -
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
Not changing signature until HHH pedigrees Candice through a table. 07/07/06
Big Bob | Posted 7/8/2006 11:08:45 AM | message detail
Actually, this looks pretty good for Soma...

Remember in the rally tournament when Nightmare kicked Soma's ass? Riiiiiiight...
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v674/ImBigBob/PokemonvsMetroid.jpg
jonthomson | Posted 7/8/2006 11:09:11 AM | message detail
We got owned.

What's this "we" you talk of...
---
Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
therealmnm | Posted 7/8/2006 11:14:14 AM | message detail
Remember in the rally tournament when Nightmare kicked Soma's ass? Riiiiiiight...

But if Soul Calibur is so strong, it must have a popular character! And Nightmare clearly seems like the most logical choice, so Nightmare automatically becomes a strong character!
---
Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 11:16:17 AM | message detail
I think the point ended up being that Soul Calibur wasn't strong. =P

I'm not sold on Soma yet, but I'd suspect he could hold his own against any SC character.
---
Commit it to memory.
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/8/2006 11:16:28 AM | message detail
^_^
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/RPGuy.jpg
Janus5000 | Posted 7/8/2006 11:18:50 AM | message detail
But if Soul Calibur is so strong, it must have a popular character!

RAGE.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
therealmnm | Posted 7/8/2006 11:19:44 AM | message detail
I wouldn't take Soma to amount to much. I just wanted to see another Castlevania character get in. He's obviously less popular than Alucard. I'd take him to beat Sam Fisher or something. Of course, I would be hardly excited for such a matchup.

Soma vs. Kefka!!! If Kefka actually loses that, can we ban him from contests?
---
Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
swirIdude | Posted 7/8/2006 1:57:04 PM | message detail
But if Starcraft is so strong, it must have a popular character!
---
Xbox 360 melts disks!
And people made jokes about the PS3 being a grill. ~bokunokuso
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/8/2006 1:59:22 PM | message detail
Yeah, seeing Soul Calibur bomb like that has me a little worried about Nightmare.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
jonthomson | Posted 7/8/2006 2:19:30 PM | message detail
Match 8 - Kingdom Hearts vs Harvest Moon

After what is hopefully a slobberknocker of a match, we've got something a little easier to call. Kingdom Hearts, fresh off a new game with tons of hype and exposure, faces a series I know next to nothing about. Seems it's been around for quite a while on a few platforms, but I doubt it's going to be anything apart from fodder.

As such, it's difficult to get a good idea of what KH needs to be doing here to be declared a favourite against whoever it faces in the second round, particularly if one of them comes out and puts in a convincing display. The bigger the number, the better, but we just can't tell what will be good enough for the win.

Before the tournament, I thought that KH could make the quarter finals only if it got a favourable draw, as there were a clear ten or so series that I'd take over it in a straight match-up. It's avoided all of those. The question remains whether we'll see the KH that we saw in 2004 which struggled against Soul Calibur and then lost to Starcraft, or whether we'll see an uber-hyped 'roided up entrant which will cruise to a loss to Metal Gear, backed with thousands who'll put KH2 down for long enough to vote for the series. I have a rough idea of what sort of numbers I'd need to see in this match (and the previous one) to tip it to get to the last 8, but we'll have to wait for that :-)

Bracket says: Kingdom Hearts
Favourites bracket says: Harvest Moon
Vote says: Harvest Moon
Prediction: Kingdom Hearts with 81.28%

Fun fact of the day: Had SF2 not lost, the second round of the 16-bit division would have been so painful for jonthomson to watch that he might have hidden in a corner for a week afterwards and asked "has it stopped yet?"
---
Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 2:20:48 PM | message detail
I've been behind Kefka being banned from contests since Day 1!
---
Commit it to memory.
Phediuk | Posted 7/8/2006 2:37:25 PM | message detail
*COMPARISONS GAME- (2) Kingdom Hearts vs. (7) Harvest Moon*

Sales

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Advantage: Kingdom Hearts

Hype

Kingdom Hearts:

Kingdom Hearts II was released back in March. People are still talking about it. I'd say the hype level is pretty damn high.

Harvest Moon:

This series has never had any sort of hype whatsoever. The same 10 people buy every game, they're happy with them, and no one else cares.

Advantage: Kingdom Hearts

Number of Games

Kingdom Hearts:

Main series-

Kingdom Hearts (PS2, 2002)
Kingdom Hearts: Chain of Memories (GBA, 2004)
Kingdom Hearts II (PS2, 2006)

Spinoffs/ports-

Kingdom Hearts: Final Mix (PS2, 2002)

Total- 4
--

Harvest Moon:

Main series-

Harvest Moon (SNES, 1997)
Harvest Moon GB (GB, 1997)
Harvest Moon 2 (GBC, 1999)
Harvest Moon 64 (N64, 1999)
Harvest Moon 3 (GBC, 2000)
Harvest Moon: Back to Nature (PSX, 2000)
Harvest Moon: Save the Homeland (PS2, 2001)
Harvest Moon: Friends of Mineral Town (GBA, 2003)
Harvest Moon: A Wonderful Life (GC, 2004)
Harvest Moon: Magical Melody (GC, 2006)

Spinoffs/ports-

Harvest Moon GBC (GBC, 1998)
Harvest Moon for Girls (PSX, 2000)
Harvest Moon: More Friends of Mineral Town (GBA, 2005)
Harvest Moon: Another Wonderful Life (GC, 2005)
Harvest Moon: A Wonderful Life Special Edition (GC, 2005)

Total- 15

Advantage: Harvest Moon

GameFAQs Status

Number of FAQs:

Kingdom Hearts:

Kingdom Hearts- 48
Kingdom Hearts: Chain of Memories- 24
Kingdom Hearts II- 42
Total- 114

Harvest Moon:

Harvest Moon- 9
Harvest Moon GB- 6
Harvest Moon 2- 7
Harvest Moon 64- 21
Harvest Moon 3- 8
Harvest Moon: Back to Nature- 24
Harvest Moon: Save the Homeland- 7
Harvest Moon: Friends of Mineral Town- 36
Harvest Moon: A Wonderful Life- 33
Harvest Moon: Magical Melody- 9
Total- 160

Advantage: Harvest Moon
Phediuk | Posted 7/8/2006 2:37:42 PM | message detail
Average review score/Number of reviews:
Kingdom Hearts:

Kingdom Hearts- 8.75 (95)
Kingdom Hearts: Chain of Memories- 7.76 (55)
Kingdom Hearts II- 8.61 (72)
Series average- 8.37 (222)

Harvest Moon:

Harvest Moon- 8.33 (24)
Harvest Moon GB- 6.50 (10)
Harvest Moon 2- 8.38 (8)
Harvest Moon 64- 9.43 (44)
Harvest Moon 3- 8.50 (16)
Harvest Moon: Back to Nature- 8.15 (39)
Harvest Moon: Save the Homeland- 7.23 (30)
Harvest Moon: Friends of Mineral Town- 9.04 (44)
Harvest Moon: A Wonderful Life- 7.86 (56)
Harvest Moon: Magical Melody- 8.72 (18)
Series average- 8.21 (289)

Advantage: Kingdom Hearts/Harvest Moon

Board activity:

KHII alone has over 14 pages, which is more than the entire Harvest Moon series combined.

Advantage: Kingdom Hearts

Board Odds Project

Match prediction:

Kingdom Hearts- 133
Harvest Moon- 0

Yippee-ki-yay, mother****er!

Advantage: Kingdom Hearts

Point value:

Kingdom Hearts- 449
Harvest Moon- 0

Harvest Moon has the dubious distinction of being one of the six series with 0 points.

Advantage: Kingdom Hearts

Previous contest representation

Kingdom Hearts:

SC2003-

Sora (39th)

Sp2004-

Kingdom Hearts (13th)

SC2004-

Sora (13th)

Sp2005-

Ansem (12th)

SC2005-

Sora (30th)
Riku (45th)

Top 100-

Kingdom Hearts (#16)

Harvest Moon:

None.

Advantage: Kingdom Hearts

Intangibles

Square factor, mass FF cameos=instant win factor, RPG factor, popular-new-game factor, etc., etc.

Advantage: Kingdom Hearts

Conclusion

Don't be fooled by the fact that Harvest Moon won three categories: it's going to get its ass kicked. Badly. 80% for KH.
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/8/2006 2:39:09 PM | message detail
Man, I really wanted to know about those Harvest Moon sales. Exactly how bad ARE they?
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 2:41:06 PM | message detail
Harvest Moon for Girls (PSX, 2000)

Why was I not informed of this wonderous game the likes of which rival Elf Bowling?!
---
Commit it to memory.
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 7/8/2006 2:44:49 PM | message detail
So, will one point cost me the contest, or am I still sorta in it?
---
I'm a 6' 238 lb Gladiator!(longbladeofhiko/Masa)
Dagan Bomb For The WIN!
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 2:47:18 PM | message detail
Nightmare is going to be pure garbage.


That said, like I said earlier, I wouldn't expect Soma to be that noteworthy either. He wouldn't be complete fodder, but he may be just above that fodder-ish level.

---
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/8/2006 2:47:33 PM | message detail
Well, this is a three point match. Castlevania is going to win next round also.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/8/2006 2:48:39 PM | message detail
Ahh, good timing, HM. About those HM sales...

Err...
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
NewLib | Posted 7/8/2006 2:49:44 PM | message detail
My first 500 and it had to be on-topic ;_;
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Where am I?
NewLib | Posted 7/8/2006 2:51:27 PM | message detail
I know this matchup has nothing to with this one, but my mind is making the connection. Im really worried about GTA > Warcraft. I think Warcraft 2 and 3 are going to play more heavily in that match than people realize.
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Where am I?
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/8/2006 2:52:24 PM | message detail
Well, maybe it means that Grand Theft Auto doesn't beat it AS handily, but I don't think it makes a difference in who wins.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/8/2006 2:53:50 PM | message detail
I know this matchup has nothing to with this one, but my mind is making the connection. Im really worried about GTA > Warcraft. I think Warcraft 2 and 3 are going to play more heavily in that match than people realize.

...You have a knack for extremely warped logic, ya know that?

And in my mind, Warcraft 2 and 3 was always what would make up the majority of Warcraft's strength. WoW is not popular on this site.
---
"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
therealmnm | Posted 7/8/2006 2:54:15 PM | message detail
Warcraft III isn't either...
---
Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/8/2006 2:56:51 PM | message detail
Actually, scratch that comment. I think WoW will make about half of WC's strength and WC2/WC3 will make the other half.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
NewLib | Posted 7/8/2006 2:57:14 PM | message detail
Hey Im just thinking and like I said it really has nothing to do with this match, just something I was reminded of.

One thing I will say is if anything proved Zelda/FF wasnt going to be FFVII/OOT, this did.
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Where am I?
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 2:58:36 PM | message detail
Harvest Moon sales?


Harvest Moon : Magical Melody -- 60,894
Harvest Moon : A Wonderful Life Special Edition -- 64,195
Harvest Moon : A Wonderful Life -- 496,447
Harvest Moon : More Friends of Mineral Town -- 103,403

---
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/8/2006 2:58:42 PM | message detail
Once again...why?
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/8/2006 2:59:08 PM | message detail
Whoa, a Harvest Moon game with good sales?!
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 2:59:31 PM | message detail
One thing I will say is if anything proved Zelda/FF wasnt going to be FFVII/OOT, this did.

What? How?

---
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
NewLib | Posted 7/8/2006 3:00:13 PM | message detail
I thought that was a pretty obvious comment. If this was Halo 2/SOTN, I still think Halo 2 wins.

I still think FF series will take down the Zelda series, and I actually dont even think it will be all that close. 55% or something like that.
---
Where am I?
XxSoulxX | Posted 7/8/2006 3:00:27 PM | message detail
HM, you have the sales for the Castlevania DS game?
--- -
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
Not changing signature until HHH pedigrees Candice through a table. 07/07/06
therealmnm | Posted 7/8/2006 3:00:49 PM | message detail
Harvest Moon : A Wonderful Life -- 496,447

What?! That's pretty damn good for a Gamecube game. Harvest Moon gets the Nintendo vote???!?!?!!?!?!
---
Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 3:01:22 PM | message detail
What about Harvest Moon for Girls dammit?!
---
Commit it to memory.
therealmnm | Posted 7/8/2006 3:02:07 PM | message detail
I still think FF series will take down the Zelda series, and I actually dont even think it will be all that close. 55% or something like that.

That's not that far from FFVII/OoT. Where's the big difference?
---
Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 3:02:08 PM | message detail
You guys realize that the GC Harvest Moon was the top Gamecube FAQ and board for quite some time, right?
---
Commit it to memory.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/8/2006 3:02:13 PM | message detail
Wow those Harvest Moon sales are way better than I thought.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 3:02:36 PM | message detail
Recent Castlevania sales ...

Castlevania : Aria of Sorrow -- 158,165
Castlevania : Circle of the Moon -- 480,643
Castlevania : Harmony of Dissonance -- 125,991
Castlevania : Dawn of Sorrow -- 176,799
Castlevania : Curse of Darkness -- 114,880 (PS2 sales only)
Castlevania Double Pack -- 39,864

---
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/8/2006 3:02:55 PM | message detail
I thought that was a pretty obvious comment. If this was Halo 2/SOTN, I still think Halo 2 wins.

Well, yeah. This is a Series Contest. It IS different. I thought that should have been apparent.

But really, there's no correlation between this match and FF/LoZ. You can't draw that kind of conclusion just based on Castlevania/Halo.

But I agree with you that Final Fantasy wins with ease. Said it from the beginning.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
NewLib | Posted 7/8/2006 3:03:00 PM | message detail
Oh I didnt say we are going to see a PERCENTAGE difference, I just think that people arent going to vote for FFVII or OOT. They are going to vote for which series they like best.
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Where am I?
therealmnm | Posted 7/8/2006 3:04:31 PM | message detail
Castlevania : Circle of the Moon -- 480,643

Circle of the Moon sold so well due to practically no competition during the early GBA days. By the time HoD and AoS came around, the GBA was stacked with games.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/8/2006 3:05:32 PM | message detail
Circle of the Moon sold so well due to practically no competition during the early GBA days. By the time HoD and AoS came around, the GBA was stacked with games.

I made the point that Castlevania would have benefitted from being a launch title a few times before the brackets were locked down.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."