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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 305

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Ayvuir | Posted 7/8/2006 11:27:48 AM | message detail
I'm kinda wishing i hadn't picked Megaman now.
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Guess how many teens got owned by overrating England?
Yesmar | Posted 7/8/2006 11:32:25 AM | message detail
On one hand, I'm feeling good about my Sonic > SSB pick. On the other hand, I'm feeling worse about my Mario Kart > Mega Man pick.

I am hoping that this result is due to Castlevania's diverse fanbase beating Halo's homogenous one. And while the Mario Kart fanbase isn't that diverse, I'm hoping that it's more diverse than Mega Man's.
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"Dropo! You're the laziest man on Mars."
Kratos_42 | Posted 7/8/2006 11:36:03 AM | message detail
I'm worried about three of my picks.

1. Sonic>SSB
2. KH>Castlevania
3. GTA>WoW

I SO WORRIED!
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising.
Phediuk | Posted 7/8/2006 11:42:33 AM | message detail
Because I'm bored, I decided to make the "Optimum Bracket" from the Top 100 list last fall. 1st vs. 64th, 32nd vs. 33rd, 2nd vs. 63rd, etc.

I don't expect any replies to this post. >_>

Way Too Much Square SFF Division:

1- Final Fantasy VII
16- Baldur's Gate II: Shadows of Amn

8- Xenogears
9- Doom

5- Final Fantasy VIII
12- God of War

4- Kingdom Hearts
13- Half-Life: Counter-Strike

6- Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater
11- Perfect Dark

3- Final Fantasy X
14- Resident Evil

7- Half-Life 2
10- Devil May Cry

2- Metal Gear Solid
15- Suikoden II

Coincidentally, There's a Poopload of Nintendo SFF In This Division:

1- The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
16- Super Mario Kart

8- Metroid Prime
9- Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic

5- Diablo II
12- The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

4- Super Mario 64
13- Secret of Mana

6- Super Metroid
11- Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty

3- Halo
14- Age of Empires II: The Age of Kings

7- Pokemon Red/Blue
10- Earthbound

2- Super Mario Bros. 3
15- Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos

This Division Has Only 1 SFF Match Division:

1- Chrono Trigger
16- Burnout 3: Takedown

8- The Legend of Zelda
9- Grand Theft Auto: Vice City

5- Final Fantasy Tactics
12- The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask

4- Resident Evil 4
13- Soul Calibur

6- Super Mario World
11- Final Fantasy IX

3- Final Fantasy VI
14- Advance Wars

7- Grand Theft Auto III
10- Sonic the Hedgehog 2

2- Super Smash Bros. Melee
15- Pokemon Gold/Silver

I Can't Think of a Decent Name for This Division:

1- The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
16- Contra

8- Half-Life
9- Tetris

5- StarCraft
12- Street Fighter II

4- Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
13- Final Fantasy IV

6- Super Mario Bros.
11- Chrono Cross

3- Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
14- Fire Emblem

7- Super Mario RPG
10- World of Warcraft

2- Goldeneye
15- Mortal Kombat

That's actually a pretty damn good bracket. Ceej should take some notes.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
DBZFIGHTERS | Posted 7/8/2006 11:45:56 AM | message detail
O_o

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Die hard Cubs, Pistons, Patriot and Maple Leafs fan
Owl Squad Member ( ēvē( ēvē )ēvē ) O RLY?
Slowflake | Posted 7/8/2006 11:48:12 AM | message detail
Just came back from a family reunion (God I hate those), and Halo's still doing as good damage control as Sony execs justifing the PS3's price.

*golf claps*
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I do declare, old chap! Even a Doom score could not possibly justify the unwarranted combustion of kittens!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/8/2006 11:50:22 AM | message detail
6- Super Mario World
11- Final Fantasy IX

3- Final Fantasy VI
14- Advance Wars


I'd hope that SMW loses to FF9 just to see it get absolutely murdered by FF6 the next match.


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Guess how many teens | Posted 7/8/2006 11:50:45 AM | message detail
Just a question, I am doing a contest on another site and I would like to do X-stats when I'm finished, with which contestants do I begin? the ones in the final and then I work my way down right?
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There are 2 rules to being a success in life: 1. Never give out all the information.
red sox 777 | Posted 7/8/2006 11:50:51 AM | message detail
Halo has actually won 2 consecutive updates.
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July 2006 Contest --- Score: 6/6 --- Rank: T-1
Today's Pick: Halo --- Today's Vote: Halo
Master Moltar | Posted 7/8/2006 11:51:02 AM | message detail
Did Halo just win 2 updates as Slow came back?

>___>
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Moltar Status: #37 on the Leaderboard!!
Castlevania vs. Halo - Bracket: Halo - Vote: Halo (6/6)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/8/2006 11:51:08 AM | message detail
Question: How many people had Halo beating Kingdom Hearts in Round 2?

I know I did...


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 11:52:15 AM | message detail
Halo's not even doing a passable job at slashing the percentage here -- at least MC was able to bring Crono's percentage down a lot, even if he couldn't win a single update.

Sheesh, I'm tempted to take Castlevania over Chrono at this point.
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Commit it to memory.
Janus5000 | Posted 7/8/2006 11:52:25 AM | message detail
Branch off, eh?

Mega Man X is so scr- wait, it actually is
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
xGaMeRMaNx | Posted 7/8/2006 11:53:20 AM | message detail
Go Harvest Moon! A great series comprised of more than 3 GAMES should beat a series that only has that much. DOWN WITH KH!
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I finally reached Legend status. Woot.
Starion | Posted 7/8/2006 11:56:03 AM | message detail
Well, it did win two updates in a row. It's too little too late now though.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/8/2006 11:56:16 AM | message detail
Well, so much for those 2 consecutive updates =(


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Slowflake | Posted 7/8/2006 11:57:21 AM | message detail
By the way, I updated the BOP sheet to include Castlevania's victory. 15th biggest upset by prediction percentage, with 25.56%.
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I do declare, old chap! Even a Doom score could not possibly justify the unwarranted combustion of kittens!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/8/2006 11:58:41 AM | message detail
I'm guessing only the Starcraft matches and Magus/Knux beat it out?


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Janus5000 | Posted 7/8/2006 12:02:00 PM | message detail
There weren't 13 Starcraft matches, actually.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 12:04:12 PM | message detail
Felt like it. =P

And this match won't be done justice, especially since I sense an even larger amount of casuals will get burned, thus making the board look better due to its bias against Halo.

Or maybe the casuals will remember Halo getting upset by a 16 seed, and pull a Ness/CJ on us.
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Commit it to memory.
SonicRaptor | Posted 7/8/2006 12:05:09 PM | message detail
Question: How many people had Halo beating Kingdom Hearts in Round 2?

I cannot fathom why people would do that: especially with KH2 out. Even the numbers from 2004 can be wrong.
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"Never argue with a fool, people may not tell the difference" - Murphy's Law
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/8/2006 12:06:22 PM | message detail
I cannot fathom why people would do that: especially with KH2 out. Even the numbers from 2004 can be wrong.

Well, I've said from the outset that whoever wins today's match will beat Kingdom Hearts...
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Xuxon | Posted 7/8/2006 12:07:04 PM | message detail
I'm pretty bored, so

1- Final Fantasy VII
8- Xenogears
5- Final Fantasy VIII
4- Kingdom Hearts
6- Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater
3- Final Fantasy X
10- Devil May Cry
2- Metal Gear Solid

1- The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
8- Metroid Prime
12- The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
4- Super Mario 64
11- Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty
3- Halo
7- Pokemon Red/Blue
2- Super Mario Bros. 3

1- Chrono Trigger
9- Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
5- Final Fantasy Tactics
4- Resident Evil 4
6- Super Mario World
3- Final Fantasy VI
7- Grand Theft Auto III
2- Super Smash Bros. Melee

1- The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
8- Half-Life
5- StarCraft
4- Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
6- Super Mario Bros.
3- Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
10- World of Warcraft
2- Goldeneye


1- Final Fantasy VII
5- Final Fantasy VIII
3- Final Fantasy X
2- Metal Gear Solid

1- The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
4- Super Mario 64
11- Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty
2- Super Mario Bros. 3

1- Chrono Trigger
4- Resident Evil 4
3- Final Fantasy VI
2- Super Smash Bros. Melee

1- The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
5- StarCraft
3- Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
2- Goldeneye


1- Final Fantasy VII
2- Metal Gear Solid

1- The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
2- Super Mario Bros. 3

1- Chrono Trigger
3- Final Fantasy VI

1- The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
3- Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas


1- Final Fantasy VII
1- The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
1- Chrono Trigger
1- The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time

1- Final Fantasy VII
1- The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time

1- Final Fantasy VII
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"Let's drop this Xbox statue on Naomi's head! Oof! This thing's big! It'll take over 3 years for it to start selling!" ~ Jaguar, Sega Fantasy VI
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/8/2006 12:07:55 PM | message detail
2004 contest was also before Halo 2. I would imagine Halo 2 brought more fans to the series than KH2.


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 12:09:02 PM | message detail
Bold prediction for a few things there. MGS > FFX after it almost lost to FFT? Half-Life over SotN after...well, today? =D
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Commit it to memory.
Xuxon | Posted 7/8/2006 12:11:15 PM | message detail
Hmm well I considered Tactics > RE4. Also, it's Starcraft > SOTN.
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"Let's drop this Xbox statue on Naomi's head! Oof! This thing's big! It'll take over 3 years for it to start selling!" ~ Jaguar, Sega Fantasy VI
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 12:16:50 PM | message detail
I just realized something...how many zero brackets do you guys think we'll have after today???
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Commit it to memory.
SonicRaptor | Posted 7/8/2006 12:17:29 PM | message detail
I just realized something...how many zero brackets do you guys think we'll have after today???

Under 40.
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"Never argue with a fool, people may not tell the difference" - Murphy's Law
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 12:19:27 PM | message detail
Bah, I meant to say StarCraft...don't know where HL came from.
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Commit it to memory.
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/8/2006 12:20:43 PM | message detail
Starcraft > SOTN wouldn't really be a very difficult pick to make... Why do people STILL think that Castlevania, as a series, is only equal to SOTN? It's MUCH BIGGER THAN SOTN!
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/8/2006 12:22:36 PM | message detail
At the 15:20 mark, this match has 78143 votes. To compare with other matches at this same time:

Zelda/Civilization - 75624 (finished with 111332)
Pokemon/Star Ocean - 78158 (finished with 108886)
Metroid/Kirby - 73530 (finished with 106410)
Metal Gear/Soul Calibur - 76874 (finished with 110670)

Holy crap was Pokemon/Star Ocean ever front-loaded. Hopefully, this match doesn't suffer the same fate and we can get 115,000 or so.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
red sox 777 | Posted 7/8/2006 12:30:27 PM | message detail
I'm guessing Pokemon/Star Ocean was so front-loaded because it was on July 4th and many people left at night to watch the fireworks or something.
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July 2006 Contest --- Score: 6/6 --- Rank: T-1
Today's Pick: Halo --- Today's Vote: Halo
King Morgoth | Posted 7/8/2006 12:48:24 PM | message detail
Lurking is always fun...

http://www.oraclechallenge.com/CV.gif
10-period moving average (50 minutes) for both SotN matches and this one.

All times are Eastern (I moved the last three hours of the SpC2k4 matches to the beginning), the cruve looks better against PD since we only have 15-min updates for that one, but Castlevania went totally out of its mind at roughly 6am. Can't even be cheating since the votals are probably a bit low for a close match on a Saturday, it's simply...weird.
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SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
Phediuk | Posted 7/8/2006 1:03:57 PM | message detail
31 _Phediuk_ 6 Final Fantasy

*sigh*

Guess that'll be the highest I ever get on the Top 50.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
Yesmar | Posted 7/8/2006 1:12:40 PM | message detail
This is starting to get really weird.

Master Chief was able to get the day vote against Donkey Kong, but not Castlevania?
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"Dropo! You're the laziest man on Mars."
Slowflake | Posted 7/8/2006 1:16:25 PM | message detail
OMG DIS MUST B CHEETING!!!11!one1!
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I do declare, old chap! Even a Doom score could not possibly justify the unwarranted combustion of kittens!
steve illumina | Posted 7/8/2006 1:20:01 PM | message detail
HAHAHAHA Look at this...I am vindicated yet again... All the noobs and so called stats legends...look at their Halo...the mighty Halo...their precious Halo soundly defeated.

My predictions and analysis may be satirical in nature...but there is so much truth hidden in the logic I portray! And here it is...the brackets of thousands will break tonight...but not that of the Sage of Board 8!

I will now accept your apologies :)
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Steve Illumina: 'Sage of Board 8', Adored by Elites, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by Girly Gamers!
Lopen | Posted 7/8/2006 1:21:45 PM | message detail
The hell with you, Halo. This is deplorable! You shame Master Chief!

I'm really doubting DMC > Sonic even more now. And I don't think Mega Man vs. Mario Kart will be very close either. Not that I can win, anyway at this point.

I do maintain that Castlevania will go over KH even easier than it is Halo, though.
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"I need a weapon." - Master Chief
*Waves M$ flag*
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/8/2006 1:33:19 PM | message detail
Hmmm...I think it's safe to say that being a well-established series is important here. Castlevania has spanned every console generation and nearly every console. Halo was just introduced this generation and is only on XBox (okay, the PC, too, but still). Castlevania has many games to draw from while Halo has just two. Castlevania probably has a good deal of fanbase diversity while Halo probably does not.

Keep in mind that SSBM is not head-and-shoulders above Halo, folks. Surely somebody would feel enticed to take Castlevania over Super Smash Brothers at the moment.

Okay, I should've known better than to say that. SSB supporters always have an excuse.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 1:35:29 PM | message detail
I will say that on the off-chance it wasn't actually Starcraft's fault, but SSBM overperforming on FFVII, that SSB is in a HELL of a lot of trouble come Sonic.
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Commit it to memory.
Lopen | Posted 7/8/2006 1:35:31 PM | message detail
Absolutely I'd take Castlevania over SSBM at this point. And I'm thinking Sonic > SSBM actually has a chance too.. though like the beginning of the contest I'd still be taking Castlevania > Sonic.
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"I need a weapon." - Master Chief
*Waves M$ flag*
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 1:36:30 PM | message detail
Anything to make Halo look better!

I should have known something was up when my bracket was similar to Lopen's! =(
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Commit it to memory.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/8/2006 1:37:08 PM | message detail
Castlevania over Sonic? WTF? I would never take that in a million years.
Phediuk | Posted 7/8/2006 1:39:38 PM | message detail
Listening to SotN's soundtrack for the 1000th time has reminded me once again how awesome Castlevania music is.

Tragic Prince and Wandering Ghosts for the ****ing win.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/8/2006 1:39:47 PM | message detail
There were quite a few people who were saying that Castlevania would be stronger than Sonic.

I suppose the big question is whether it's better to have one strong game and a bunch of other fodder-level games or a few decently strong games but no powerhouse.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Phediuk | Posted 7/8/2006 1:40:37 PM | message detail
Hmmm...I think it's safe to say that being a well-established series is important here. Castlevania has spanned every console generation and nearly every console. Halo was just introduced this generation and is only on XBox (okay, the PC, too, but still). Castlevania has many games to draw from while Halo has just two. Castlevania probably has a good deal of fanbase diversity while Halo probably does not.

Keep in mind that SSBM is not head-and-shoulders above Halo, folks. Surely somebody would feel enticed to take Castlevania over Super Smash Brothers at the moment.

Okay, I should've known better than to say that. SSB supporters always have an excuse.


Yeah. SSB is Nintendo, and in case you didn't notice, this is NintendoFAQs.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/8/2006 1:41:51 PM | message detail
Of course, of course. I forgot that SSBM was projected to double up Halo in the Games Contest. How stupid of me to neglect that important detail.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Ayvuir | Posted 7/8/2006 1:41:55 PM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts isn't Nintendo, and only has two games within its series. Yet it has potential...somehow
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Guess how many teens got owned by overrating England?
Phediuk | Posted 7/8/2006 1:42:53 PM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts isn't Nintendo, and only has two games within its series. Yet it has potential...somehow

Yeah, it's called having a new game in late March and having heavy association with Final Fantasy.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 1:54:53 PM | message detail
With my bracket screwed, I'm *really* hoping for this Sonic upset. I don't think it will happen, but goodness gracious would this board never hear the end of it.
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Commit it to memory.