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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 305

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RPGuy96 | Posted 7/8/2006 8:38:16 AM | message detail
Ahahahahaha! So what happened to Castlevania being a niche series? Or Halo blowing out GoldenEye?
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dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 8:39:14 AM | message detail
Regardless of how strong it is in contests, castlevania is a niche series.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 8:39:56 AM | message detail
What would you expect the percentages to be like in Metal Gear/Castlevania, should it happen?
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XxSoulxX | Posted 7/8/2006 8:40:11 AM | message detail
Congrats Castlevania. If one series was going to screw me over in everything, I'm glad it's a series I enjoy.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
Not changing signature until HHH pedigrees Candice through a table. 07/07/06
Zylo the wolf | Posted 7/8/2006 8:40:46 AM | message detail
I don't think there's much Konami SFF on this site.

So I expect Metal Gear to win with say 63%
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andaca | Posted 7/8/2006 8:41:11 AM | message detail
Hey, I can actually do it pretty easily. Watch:

STARCRAFT CHEATED THOUSANDS UPON THOUSANDS UPON THOUSANDS OF VOTES AGAINST SUPER SMASH BROTHERS MELEE


And even if you assume that there was zero cheating against Halo whatsoever, that still wouldn't explain what is currently going on.

But keep trying. Caps lock makes your arguments more convincing!
ThatsRidiculous | Posted 7/8/2006 8:41:13 AM | message detail
And 2 votes for Halo...
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cavedog0: Dec. 2003 - Oct. 2005
Now that USA and Holland and Australia are out, is currently rooting for: France
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/8/2006 8:41:13 AM | message detail
*bows down to his sovereign lord, RPGuy*
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
Anal Storage | Posted 7/8/2006 8:41:20 AM | message detail
I still say Castlevania is niche... if I walk around and ask a bunch of people what Castlevania is, I seriously doubt they'd give me the answer I'm looking for. That doesn't mean it's not popular here though.

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I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/8/2006 8:41:55 AM | message detail
Halo won another one. Does this mean the day vote might finally be starting?


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Layzerbeam | Posted 7/8/2006 8:42:11 AM | message detail
And time for another CV spike.

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ROCKET TROUSERS!
im not making these lies up ~ ertyu
Master Moltar | Posted 7/8/2006 8:42:17 AM | message detail
This marks the second time the Castlevania series has messed up by bracket. The game too, not Alucard. Both times I had it out in Round 1.

And if anything, Halo would be the one cheating at this point. Castlevania is looking pretty constant, while Halo is jumping around, either bombing an update or barely winning one.
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Moltar Status: #37 on the Leaderboard!!
Castlevania vs. Halo - Bracket: Halo - Vote: Halo (6/6)
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 8:43:08 AM | message detail
I don't think there's much Konami SFF on this site.

Even if there was, MG and CV would be just about the last two series made by the same company that I'd expect to have a hugely overlapping fanbase.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 8:43:09 AM | message detail
And even if you assume that there was zero cheating against Halo whatsoever, that still wouldn't explain what is currently going on.

But keep trying. Caps lock makes your arguments more convincing!


Other than Goldeneye being obviously SFFed and Castlevania being stronger as a whole? No, on Halo's side, I doubt there's much more of a reason than that.

Hell, it doesn't even have to be cheated votes. It could be a Frog/Magus-esque 'overperformance'.
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Commit it to memory.
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 8:44:23 AM | message detail
Hell, it doesn't even have to be cheated votes. It could be a Frog/Magus-esque 'overperformance'.

Or tee-dus-esque
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
Starion | Posted 7/8/2006 8:44:28 AM | message detail
Isn't this why you it's better to use 15 minute updates instead of 5? It should be easier that way to determine truly anomalous patterns that way. And in this case, CV gained every 15 minute interval.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/8/2006 8:45:39 AM | message detail
Gah, CV gets another 30 votes....


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 8:46:05 AM | message detail
Isn't this why you it's better to use 15 minute updates instead of 5?

I'm not saying there's cheating for sure, but it's easier to detect in smaller intervals. That's why kefka/vercetti was obvious to so many people.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/8/2006 8:47:01 AM | message detail
Even if Castlevania was cheating, I seriously doubt it would be cheating THAT much.


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 8:47:30 AM | message detail
Yeah. Besides, I concur with Moltar. Halo is really bounding off the walls right now.
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Commit it to memory.
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 8:48:32 AM | message detail
I'm not necessarily suggesting that it's castlevania getting cheat votes, but there is a huge anomaly in the updates, and it looks very suspicious.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
andaca | Posted 7/8/2006 8:49:13 AM | message detail
Other than Goldeneye being obviously SFFed and Castlevania being stronger as a whole? No, on Halo's side, I doubt there's much more of a reason than that.

Hell, it doesn't even have to be cheated votes. It could be a Frog/Magus-esque 'overperformance'.


Well, duh. I never said there weren't other reasons for it. I was making light that the people a few pages back that were saying this is proof that Starcraft must have majorly screwed up its division really have no legs to stand on. The "just" in my original post made it clear that I thought there were other reasons which would explain this much better than OMG TEH CHEAT VOTES.

Reading Comprehension FTW!
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/8/2006 8:49:40 AM | message detail
Halo is truly outclassed. Ah well, with my bracket now in the gutter, all that's left for me in this contest is Mario Kart and Zelda. Do it for me, my loves!
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
dethfdddddh | Posted 7/8/2006 8:49:51 AM | message detail
Thank you so much for this suspicion that comes with every surprising result, Romero!

>_<
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Just Got Owned By Guru winner Voltch.
ThatsRidiculous | Posted 7/8/2006 8:49:57 AM | message detail
The only way I can see if Castlevania was cheating, is if they were cheating the whole time, almost every update. They've been getting 40-50 vote updates all night and have stayed pretty conistent aside from the 2-4 vote spikes for Halo.
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cavedog0: Dec. 2003 - Oct. 2005
Now that USA and Holland and Australia are out, is currently rooting for: France
Anal Storage | Posted 7/8/2006 8:50:16 AM | message detail
I swear to god if this is the only match yo misses I'm going to explode.

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I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien
HaRRicH | Posted 7/8/2006 8:50:25 AM | message detail
I am about to go to work...but I'm simply going to repeat what has been said before: if there was ever a chance for such a large vote-swing, this match would be it. Throw in the higher vote-totals, and this match isn't over yet...

...but Halo has to get its **** straight.
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Anal Storage | Posted 7/8/2006 8:51:03 AM | message detail
I don't know if anyone is really saying CV is cheating so much as being confused about random updates.

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I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 8:52:23 AM | message detail
For **** sake, I'm not assuming cheat votes out of nowhere because the result is surprising. That isn't the anomaly. At all. Vote spikes during updates are what's so strange.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/8/2006 8:53:09 AM | message detail
At least it seems to be slowing down at a steadier pace.


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
andaca | Posted 7/8/2006 8:53:20 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Anal Storage | Posted 7/8/2006 8:53:24 AM | message detail
Jesus Christ HaRR, my mom said you were clingy, but damn!

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I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien
ThatsRidiculous | Posted 7/8/2006 8:54:38 AM | message detail
Halo is gaining in percent over the last couple hours though. Could me the "true" day vote is coming...
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cavedog0: Dec. 2003 - Oct. 2005
Now that USA and Holland and Australia are out, is currently rooting for: France
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 8:54:43 AM | message detail
I don't know if anyone is really saying CV is cheating so much as being confused about random updates.

Thank you, that's more or less what I'm trying to figure out. I'm not even syaing it's necessarily CV that's getting these possible cheat votes either; it might be halo for all I know. I'm just saying that there is a huge anomaly in each update. It's not normal for a contender to lose five votes one five minute update, and gain 84 the next. Maybe halo was getting cheat votes when it lost 4; I don't know, but a lot of you are misunderstanding what I'm saying.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 8:55:06 AM | message detail
Well, duh. I never said there weren't other reasons for it. I was making light that the people a few pages back that were saying this is proof that Starcraft must have majorly screwed up its division really have no legs to stand on. The "just" in my original post made it clear that I thought there were other reasons which would explain this much better than OMG TEH CHEAT VOTES.

Reading Comprehension FTW!


You seem to majorly lack it. I was referring to Starcraft 'overperforming' on SSBM, whether by cheat votes or something else entirely. I don't see ANY other possibility other than it screwing up its half-division at this rate, unless you want to go for SSBM screwing up the ENTIRE division. And that brings a LOT more games into question whose strengths have been far more reasonable. MGS2's not *that* much weaker than MGS.

Starcraft screwing up its division is the most reasonable assumption one could likely make now.
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Commit it to memory.
Phediuk | Posted 7/8/2006 8:56:08 AM | message detail
Let's predict the rest of the bracket with NAF:

Kingdom Hearts vs. Harvest Moon

Harvest Moon may have more Nintendo exposure than KH, but with KH, Final Fantasy is involved, so the Nintendo advantage is void.

Super Mario Bros. vs. Madden NFL

SMB=straight from Nintendo.

Grand Theft Auto vs. Warcraft

GTA2 was released on the Game Boy Color. GTA wins.

Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Devil May Cry

Sonic is so closely intertwined with Nintendo now that he may as well be a Nintendo character.

Super Smash Bros. vs. Dragon Quest

SSB=straight from Nintendo, which voids DQ's greater number of releases.

Final Fantasy vs. Diablo

FF has NAF and the FF void factor going for it.

Mega Man vs. Mario Kart

Mario Kart=straight from Nintendo.

Elder Scrolls vs. Street Fighter

Several SF games were released on the SNES, but it's obviously the Game Boy version of SFII that's carrying Street Fighter to victory.

Resident Evil vs. Shadow Hearts

RE4.

Round 2:

Zelda vs. Mega Man X

Zelda=straight from Nintendo.

Pokemon vs. Metroid

Metroid is higher on the Nintendo pecking order. Metroid wins.

Metal Gear vs. Fire Emblem

Fire Emblem=straight from Nintendo, but Snake is going to be in SSBB, and SSB>FE on the Nintendo pecking order.

Castlevania vs. Kingdom Hearts

FF void factor for KH.

Super Mario Bros. vs. Grand Theft Auto

SMB=straight from Nintendo.

Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Super Smash Bros.

SSB=straight from Nintendo.

Final Fantasy vs. Mario Kart

FF void factor.

Street Fighter vs. Resident Evil

RE4.

Round 3:

The Legend of Zelda vs. Metroid

Zelda=higher on pecking order.

Metal Gear vs. Kingdom Hearts

FF void factor.

Super Mario Bros. vs. Super Smash Bros.

SMB=higher on pecking order.

Final Fantasy vs. Resident Evil

FF void factor.

Semifinals:

The Legend of Zelda vs. Kingdom Hearts

FF void factor...but it's Zelda. Call it "****ing Zelda factor".

Super Mario Bros. vs. Final Fantasy

FF void factor.

Finals:

The Legend of Zelda vs. Final Fantasy

FF void factor.

And there you have it. NAF FTW!
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 7/8/2006 8:57:07 AM | message detail
I laughed at KH > CV and SSB > Sonic
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 7/8/2006 8:57:19 AM | message detail
In 304, someone shwoed the updates, Halo constantly getting 100-115, while Castlevania getting between 120-200.. doesn't make much sense to me unless there is a little bit more cheating on the CV side. Well anyway, Halo is finally starting to win some updates, but I'm afraid it's too late... I hope it does come back, because that would easily make this one of the greatest matches ever.
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...little Weezing it's gonna stand up against my ****in' Charizard? Just get back on your bike
and keep pretending to be cool with your lame ass mohawk ****er. - phoenix1487 Sp2k6: 6/6
Anal Storage | Posted 7/8/2006 8:57:23 AM | message detail
Too bad you cleverly contorted matches to fit your liking, like Metal Gear/FE for example.

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I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien
HaRRicH | Posted 7/8/2006 8:58:05 AM | message detail
Though you don't win matches on percentage, at least Halo's beginning to shoot up in it (still losin' votes more times than not though...yikes). I've got hope.

Gone to work.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 7/8/2006 8:58:37 AM | message detail
That would work, but MG is going to kill KH.
--- -
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
Not changing signature until HHH pedigrees Candice through a table. 07/07/06
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/8/2006 8:59:14 AM | message detail
I'm leaving to run some errands. When I get back, Halo better be steadily winning updates.


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 8:59:28 AM | message detail
How can MG kill KH, when CV is going to beat it first?
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
ThatsRidiculous | Posted 7/8/2006 9:00:07 AM | message detail
CV is out due to the FF Void duh.

<_<
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cavedog0: Dec. 2003 - Oct. 2005
Now that USA and Holland and Australia are out, is currently rooting for: France
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/8/2006 9:01:13 AM | message detail
MC started stalling DK about now...and Castlevania continues to gain. It would be hilarious if CV won the day vote.
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ApplesauceSign | Posted 7/8/2006 9:01:44 AM | message detail
That would work, but MG is going to kill KH.

More like MG is going to kill CV m i rite?

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
Layzerbeam | Posted 7/8/2006 9:01:59 AM | message detail
CV has the flukey updates while Halo is going pretty steady.

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ROCKET TROUSERS!
im not making these lies up ~ ertyu
andaca | Posted 7/8/2006 9:10:41 AM | message detail
If you assume that Starcraft got 3000 pure cheat votes against SSBM (and that SSBM got none), Starcraft's strength against FF7 drops from 37.36% down to 36.22%. Halo's strength would drop from 37.24% all the way down to 36.07%.

This means that instead of being projected to beat SotN with 72.8% of the vote, Halo should only beat SotN by 72% of the vote.

I guess if you assume that Starcraft got around 10,000 cheat votes against SSBM it would start to actually screw the division up in the way necessary for it to serve as any real sort of explanatory factor here, but I don't think anyone is that crazy.
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 7/8/2006 9:11:18 AM | message detail
I'd laugh my ass off if CJayC declared there was massive CV cheating and took away like 5000 votes. The baord would be in a frenzy.
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...little Weezing it's gonna stand up against my ****in' Charizard? Just get back on your bike
and keep pretending to be cool with your lame ass mohawk ****er. - phoenix1487 Sp2k6: 6/6
andaca | Posted 7/8/2006 9:16:23 AM | message detail
I'd laugh my ass off if CJayC declared there was massive CV cheating and took away like 5000 votes. The baord would be in a frenzy.

Heresy!

CV will win, and my bracket will die.

Alucard has willed it.