GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 305
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| transience | Posted 7/8/2006 12:07:50 AM | message detail |
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JUST WAIT UNTIL THE OLD PEOPLE GO TO BED *Creativename's websites* Everything you could ever imagine: http://www.GameFAQsContests.com http://www.sc2k5.com http://www.sc2k4.com Sortable Table for Every Contest Match: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19 *Extrapolated Standings* Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11 Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left): http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/ *Solarshadow's Sites* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating) http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html *Old Stats topics* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note) 2003-2004 Off-Season: http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note) Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL. Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm *Match Pictures* All the match pics, save for three from 2002: http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php *Miscellaneous* Creativename's Page of Links: http://sc2k4.com/links.php UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language): http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language): http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches: http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists: http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251 HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 TRE's poll listing (every poll!): http://members.shaw.ca/tre/Polls.html Aprosenf's Poll Script: http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt GameFAQs' Top 100 Games: http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/top10/top10_100.html !yawa tsoP |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/8/2006 12:10:00 AM | message detail |
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You heard the man! He's old! --- Commit it to memory. |
| stingers135 | Posted 7/8/2006 12:10:12 AM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| Draco1214 | Posted 7/8/2006 12:10:27 AM | message detail |
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*tag* --- Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2 |
| stingers135 | Posted 7/8/2006 12:10:37 AM | message detail |
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*spoilers* http://www.watch.impress.co.jp/game/docs/20060602/ep3_12.jpg http://www.watch.impress.co.jp/game/docs/20060602/ep3_12.jpg *end spoilers* Lol obviousness --- Goblin God of Sexiness of The Goblin Army of OPPRESSION Owner of Wilhelm on the Xenosaga 3 Board. Rawr. |
| Ayvuir | Posted 7/8/2006 3:22:28 AM | message detail |
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http://img91.imageshack.us/img91/3424/alukart24uu.jpg --- Guess how many teens got owned by overrating England? |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 7/8/2006 3:23:08 AM | message detail |
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Castlevania > Kingdom Hearts Oh yeah I went there. --- 1f u c4n r34d th1s u r34lly n33d t0 g37 l41d |
| ThatsRidiculous | Posted 7/8/2006 3:24:48 AM | message detail |
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NO WAI!!!1! Y IZ HALO LOOOSIN? IM JONNNA GET MY FREINDS FROM LIVE AND WEEL WIN!!!!1111 --- cavedog0: Dec. 2003 - Oct. 2005 Now that USA and Holland and Australia are out, is currently rooting for: France |
| Ayvuir | Posted 7/8/2006 3:26:39 AM | message detail |
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You actually pick that Zylo?! Then again, i suppose it could quite easily happen. --- Guess how many teens got owned by overrating England? |
| jonthomson | Posted 7/8/2006 3:30:32 AM | message detail |
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As this is a brand new type of contest, it's unclear how voters will
react. One way is that they'll see "ooh, Halo" and vote for it on the
strength of the strongest game. The other way is that they'll actually
think about the whole series and vote for the series. Which one is
prevalent depends on the intelligence of the GameFAQs users. I don't
think they're all voting sockpuppets and donkeys, and so I've gone for
Castlevania. It'll likely be an upset pick, but I'm counting on there
being enough sensible series-voting people that could go either way,
Castlevania fans, Halo anti-votes and a sprinkling of Alucard's plan to
send it through. Lead = 4057, lol. KH and SSB are screwed. --- Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 7/8/2006 3:31:57 AM | message detail |
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I had it first then I thought of Alucard VS Sora and changed it to KH > HALO Stupid stupid stupid. Then again I won't be eliminated in the Guru contest and that's all I care about since I can't win any prize anyway. --- 1f u c4n r34d th1s u r34lly n33d t0 g37 l41d |
| rpgapzx | Posted 7/8/2006 4:08:57 AM | message detail |
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Let's make a lot of assumptions with some sensitivite analysis: It is currently 4AM PST. The lead is currently 4337 LIBERAL CV continues to gain an average of 30 votes per update between 4am and 5am: 30x12=360 Halo stalls CV between 5am-9am: Halo gains between 9am and 6pm: Halo draws even with CV between 6pm-9pm. Additional needed to be made up: 360 Total Needed to be made up: 4697 # of updates between 9am and 6pm: 9x12 = 108 Votes needed per update between 9am and 6pm: 43.49 CONSERVATIVE CV continues to gain an average of 50 votes per update between 4am and 5am: 50x12=600 CV continues to gain at an average of 10 votes between 5am and 9am: 10x48= 480 Halo gains between 9am and 6pm: CV gains at an average 10 votes between 6pm and 9pm: 10x36= 360 Additional needed to be made up: 1440 Total Needed to be made up: 5777 # of updates between 9am and 6pm: 9x12 = 108 Votes needed per update between 9am and 6pm: 53.49 Obviously, I would not be willing to wager that any of my estimates hold in terms of their accuracy. However, we see that if the lead gets above 4.5k, we need an average of 40 votes per update across the whole day vote. Thus, if Halo isn't pulling in ~100 update wins at its peak, it will stand no chance. |
| rpgapzx | Posted 7/8/2006 4:10:02 AM | message detail |
| sensitivity dammnit! |
| creativename | Posted 7/8/2006 4:11:37 AM | message detail |
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Well now, this is something. I did not expect this at all. At this point, I'd have to say it almost looks like Castlevania has it in the bag. I'd be pretty surprised if Halo came back from this. It's make it close %wise but I have real trouble seeing it win the match. I'd have to say that it is probably possible to come back from as much as 5,500-6,000 votes given the higher vote totals, but I don't see that happening in this match. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 7/8/2006 4:12:32 AM | message detail |
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Actually I meant to say closer %wise. I don't think the match will end as a nailbiter or anything. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| rpgapzx | Posted 7/8/2006 4:15:04 AM | message detail |
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creativename: Is there anyway we can adjust the poll updaters to
subtract the 3 hours? Or would that screw everything up? I'm too lazy
to minus 3 hours. It may be important in the future when we want to
compare day/night votes across diferent contests. What the heck happened b/w 4 and 4:10? |
| jonthomson | Posted 7/8/2006 4:16:55 AM | message detail |
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There seemed to be a few minutes downtime. I couldn't access the boards or poll. --- Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA |
| Draco1214 | Posted 7/8/2006 4:28:41 AM | message detail |
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4500+ vote lead? Yeah, this is over. --- Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2 |
| Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/8/2006 4:38:19 AM | message detail |
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:) That's pretty much all the gloating I'm gonna do. --- "An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows." |
| Draco1214 | Posted 7/8/2006 4:47:37 AM | message detail |
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The only chance Halo has of winning now is if Castlevania really, really sucks with the day vote. --- Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2 |
| Guess how many teens | Posted 7/8/2006 4:53:21 AM | message detail |
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OMG THE PERCENTS JUST WENT DOWN!11! Yeah well ,it's a start, hopefully <-< --- There are 2 rules to being a success in life: 1. Never give out all the information. |
| Guess how many teens | Posted 7/8/2006 4:55:03 AM | message detail |
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And what was the biggest lead that something came back from (not necessarily meaning winning)? --- There are 2 rules to being a success in life: 1. Never give out all the information. |
| Draco1214 | Posted 7/8/2006 4:56:04 AM | message detail |
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Well, even though Kuja only had a lead of 400 votes, Master Hand came back and ended up beating him with a 6000 vote lead. --- Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2 |
| jonthomson | Posted 7/8/2006 4:56:16 AM | message detail |
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I'm trying to recall the biggest comeback against something not called
Chokey Kong. Against that, we've seen 3000 unsuccessfully and about
2000 successfully. --- Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA |
| red sox 777 | Posted 7/8/2006 4:58:28 AM | message detail |
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The biggest vote swing was Master Chief vs. Halo, where MC was down
2100 and won by 1500. Duck Hunt was down by 3200 against DK, and lost
by a bit over 100. Starcraft was down 2000 against Wind Waker, and won
by under 200. Starcraft was down by 3800 against SSBM, and lost by 500,
although there were probably around 1300 cheat votes in that match, and
637 confirmed, but not removed cheat votes. Master Hand was down by 400
and won by over 5000 against Kuja. --- July 2006 Contest --- Score: 6/6 --- Rank: T-1 Today's Pick: Halo --- Today's Vote: Halo |
| red sox 777 | Posted 7/8/2006 4:59:07 AM | message detail |
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That should be Master Chief vs. Donkey Kong, not Halo --- July 2006 Contest --- Score: 6/6 --- Rank: T-1 Today's Pick: Halo --- Today's Vote: Halo |
| Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/8/2006 4:59:56 AM | message detail |
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So basically, Castlevania wins for damn sure if it keeps building this lead for another half hour. --- "An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows." |
| Guess how many teens | Posted 7/8/2006 5:01:17 AM | message detail |
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Huge increase for castlevania :( it's probably over now --- There are 2 rules to being a success in life: 1. Never give out all the information. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 7/8/2006 5:04:04 AM | message detail |
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Halo needs to start stalling NOW. --- July 2006 Contest --- Score: 6/6 --- Rank: T-1 Today's Pick: Halo --- Today's Vote: Halo |
| Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/8/2006 5:05:26 AM | message detail |
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It needed to start stalling an hour or two ago. --- "An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows." |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 7/8/2006 5:06:14 AM | message detail |
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*looks at sig* Bah, I don't care about the percentages, as long as Castlevania wins. --- SpC2k6 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Castlevania with 50.22% (I'm scared) GFK: #32 in the Top 50 Contest Entries |
| Draco1214 | Posted 7/8/2006 5:06:24 AM | message detail |
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Halo's done. Oh well, here's hoping KH wins next round to minimize the damage done to my bracket. --- Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2 |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 7/8/2006 5:06:53 AM | message detail |
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Getting close to a 5000-vote lead, now --- SpC2k6 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Castlevania with 50.22% (I'm scared) GFK: #32 in the Top 50 Contest Entries |
| Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/8/2006 5:08:32 AM | message detail |
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So, assuming Castlevania does indeed maintain a lead and win, what do
you think the prediction percentage will be? I think it'll be around
45%. --- "An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows." |
| Draco1214 | Posted 7/8/2006 5:09:38 AM | message detail |
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Castlevania will have about 35% of the brackets. Casuals love to pick
Halo, and love to go against Castlevania (freaking Kratos had half the
brackets on his side against Alucard). --- Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2 |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 7/8/2006 5:09:50 AM | message detail |
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I have 43% --- SpC2k6 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Castlevania with 50.22% (I'm scared) GFK: #32 in the Top 50 Contest Entries |
| Guess how many teens | Posted 7/8/2006 5:10:23 AM | message detail |
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Come on halo, don't let it reach 5000 ;_; --- There are 2 rules to being a success in life: 1. Never give out all the information. |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 7/8/2006 5:10:36 AM | message detail |
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I think above 50% has Castlevania winning. Yeah I know it sounds crazy
but this match reminds me of Ness VS CJ and Ness was the bracket
favourite. --- 1f u c4n r34d th1s u r34lly n33d t0 g37 l41d |
| Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/8/2006 5:10:43 AM | message detail |
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Castlevania will have about 35% of the brackets. Casuals love to
pick Halo, and love to go against Castlevania (freaking Kratos had half
the brackets on his side against Alucard). Well, Kratos wasn't really a terrible choice. --- "An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows." |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 7/8/2006 5:12:07 AM | message detail |
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Don't look, but Castlevania is taking the dayvote. WTF? What's next, will Gordon Freeman win a match? --- 1f u c4n r34d th1s u r34lly n33d t0 g37 l41d |
| jonthomson | Posted 7/8/2006 5:12:43 AM | message detail |
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I think the percentage will be around 50% or so. --- Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA |
| Guess how many teens | Posted 7/8/2006 5:13:43 AM | message detail |
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Well is it already called the dayvote at this hour? --- There are 2 rules to being a success in life: 1. Never give out all the information. |
| Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/8/2006 5:14:12 AM | message detail |
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Well, we've never really seen Castlevania in action during
the day. We've only seen one game in the series in action. The people
who would be fans of the GBA games would theoretically be relatively
young. --- "An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows." |
| jonthomson | Posted 7/8/2006 5:15:33 AM | message detail |
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5000+, ship it --- Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA |
| Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 5:18:32 AM | message detail |
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Woo! Castlevania gets a 5,009 vote lead at 8:15 AM EST? Good night (day), Halo! This one is done -- there's no way Halo comes back from this. And, is it just me, or is Castlevania doing pretty well with this initial morning vote? It makes sense to me, but some others might find it nutty!! Anyway, this match is awesome. --- "Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake |
| Layzerbeam | Posted 7/8/2006 5:25:32 AM | message detail |
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Oh man, Halo is cooked. I feel a little giddy. =D --- ROCKET TROUSERS! im not making these lies up ~ ertyu |
| Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 5:32:33 AM | message detail |
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Continuing to increase the lead -- 5,135~!! --- "Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake |
| Draco1214 | Posted 7/8/2006 5:36:47 AM | message detail |
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Well, good luck to the guys who picked Castlevania. Hopefully, we'll see a perfect this contest. --- Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2 |
| voltch | Posted 7/8/2006 5:40:15 AM | message detail |
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Halo is the cause for so many nightmares. this is over now right. there's never been a voe swing of 6000 votes right? --- Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft. BrentfordFC-championship here we come |
| Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 5:41:27 AM | message detail |
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Not unless you're one of those crazy people who try to count the whole Master Hand thing. --- "Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake |