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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 304

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yoblazer33 | Posted 7/8/2006 1:26:27 AM | message detail
And with that huge update, Castlevania establishes a lead of 3046 votes.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/8/2006 1:26:57 AM | message detail
That was a gigantic update for Castlevania. I thought Halo was starting to slow it down.
transience | Posted 7/8/2006 1:27:17 AM | message detail
good lord, a 67% update. have fun, Halo!
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xyzzy
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 1:27:24 AM | message detail
Almost too huge of an update if you ask me. VOTE STUFFING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

>_>
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
Draco1214 | Posted 7/8/2006 1:28:44 AM | message detail
If Castlevania doesn't start falling apart within the next hour, it's pretty much over for Halo.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/8/2006 1:29:24 AM | message detail
It's awfully large. In its matches did SotN do anything like that?
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
Draco1214 | Posted 7/8/2006 1:30:43 AM | message detail
Not against Goldeneye.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 1:31:32 AM | message detail
That was an update of 132 votes, by the way.

With halos probably day vote, and castlvanias probably day vote, I'm not sure if it's impossible yet. If CV is every bit as crappy with it as SOTN and Alucard, which I don't personally see why it wouldn't, halo does have some chance at coming back. A 4,000 vote lead would be nice for CV, but I'm not sure if it can attain it or not yet.

I really don't see Castlevania, as a series, being as bad as SotN or Alucard with the day vote. It just carries a certain namesake that should put it above a singular game or character from the series.

(Out of curiosity, did the option in the Games Contest read "Symphony of the Night" or "Castlevania : Symphony of the Night" or "Castlevania : SOTN"? That might have affected some things if it was just "Symphony of the Night.")

I think, right now, with Castlevania over 3,000 votes, Halo's chances at coming back are decreasing with every positive update for Castlevania. This is getting into iffy territory on whether or not it has the ability to come back. Given the time in which the day vote usually kicks in, Castlevania is going to have at least a 3,500 vote lead built up. If Halo turns that around, I'll be shocked. Castlevania would have to contribute to that by sucking hard with the day vote, which many suspect is the case. Still, I think it won't suck enough for Halo to overtake it and win.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Draco1214 | Posted 7/8/2006 1:32:40 AM | message detail
(Out of curiosity, did the option in the Games Contest read "Symphony of the Night" or "Castlevania : Symphony of the Night" or "Castlevania : SOTN"? That might have affected some things if it was just "Symphony of the Night.")

Nope. It was Castlevania: Symphony of the Night.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 1:33:26 AM | message detail
Yeah, nevermind. It was "Castlevania : Symphony of the Night."

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 1:34:57 AM | message detail
Oh, I'm not saying halo will win for sure, but its chances shouldn't be flat out dismissed until we start to see the day vote kick in.

And I think you're somewhat overestimating how much of a namesake CV is. I'd wager that most casual gamers have never played a CV game.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
transience | Posted 7/8/2006 1:36:55 AM | message detail
why do people think that Castlevania is so unknown? I was hoping it'd go away after watching it tear into Halo like this, but apparently not. Castlevania's pretty well-known. I don't see why Castlevania would be any different than, say, Metroid.
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xyzzy
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 1:39:08 AM | message detail
why do people think that Castlevania is so unknown?

It isn't unknown, but I wouldn't exactly call it mainstream either. Maybe I'm completely off base here, but I think metroid has a bit more mainstream exposure then CV, if only because of Samus being in the SSB series.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/8/2006 1:39:43 AM | message detail
I think what he is really underestimating is that Castlevania had some extra peaktime hours under its belt at the start of this match as compared to SotN's matches. Extra peak time at the start means more comeback time at the end for Halo since Castlevania's 2nd night vote no longer exists.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/8/2006 1:41:15 AM | message detail
Assuming Halo begins the stall and charge at the same time as Fire Emblem (eight hours into the match, or 3:20 from now), Castlevania definitely has the time necessary to build a 4,000+ vote lead.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 1:42:13 AM | message detail
Eh, there may be some people who haven't played a Castlevania game before, but it's not this cult franchise that people like to make it out to be. It's one of the oldest franchises in this contest, and has spanned tons of consoles ranging from NES to Xbox. I find it hard to believe that people haven't at least played one game in the series. And they most certainly have had to have heard of the series somewhere down the line. I think a lot of people don't give Castlevania enough credit in that regard.

Oh, sure, it certainly isn't going to win the day vote or anything, but it shouldn't collapse completely. I think it stands a much better chance of doing better than SotN or Alucard at least. It's just "Castlevania," as a series, which should reach more of a crowd than just SotN.

But yeah, I suppose we'll find out soon enough.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
transience | Posted 7/8/2006 1:42:54 AM | message detail
but that has nothing to do with Metroid as a series. I doubt that people would play SSB and then say "wow, I should check out that Metroid game, Samus rules!"

Castlevania's got more games on more systems. for a while, DOS was the DS game. COTM was either a GBA launch title or was right around then. Castlevania 1 was one of the more popular NES titles. and, of course, SOTN. it's not unknown at all, especially on a site like this that likes their platformers.
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xyzzy
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 1:47:46 AM | message detail
I completely get your point HM, and I definitely don't completely disagree. It might not collapse in the same fashion, I just wouldn't rule it out.

but that has nothing to do with Metroid as a series. I doubt that people would play SSB and then say "wow, I should check out that Metroid game, Samus rules!"

It gives the series more mainstream exposure is my only point

Castlevania's got more games on more systems. for a while, DOS was the DS game. COTM was either a GBA launch title or was right around then. Castlevania 1 was one of the more popular NES titles. and, of course, SOTN. it's not unknown at all, especially on a site like this that likes their platformers.

That's all well and good, but how many actual sales has it generated with these games? I would probably place CV as one of my top ten series personally, but as much as I'd like it to be mainstream, I just don't think it is.

That's a good chichiri made. Since there's effectively only one complete night vote now, CV has both night votes put into one to gain this lead. I don't think a comeback is out of the question.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/8/2006 1:50:01 AM | message detail
Metroid is most certainly played to the mainstream gamers more than Castlevania. Perhaps not back in the days where they regularly shared console space, but certainly now the two are sold to different crowds.

Oh, and of note: SotN, Castlevania's most popular game according to GF, sold only 477,000 copies. Metroid had multiple games sell over a million. Slightly different scale.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
Draco1214 | Posted 7/8/2006 1:51:02 AM | message detail
Wow, a measly 17 vote update for CV.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
xp1337 | Posted 7/8/2006 1:56:58 AM | message detail
Every single time it looks like CV is slowing down, it pulls an update to show it isn't close to done.

I'm not even sure if Halo could turn this around if it started right this instant. =/
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SpC2k6 (06/06) Castlevania v Halo
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 1:57:55 AM | message detail
3,264 vote lead and going! Unless Halo starts sooner than I anticipate, that 4,000+ vote lead is looking plenty possible ...

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
TheCruelAngel | Posted 7/8/2006 2:00:32 AM | message detail
I hope that's not the start of a comeback.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/8/2006 2:02:26 AM | message detail
I hope it is. I need to stay perfect!
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* Is Dranze *
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/8/2006 2:04:47 AM | message detail
Alright, we're now five hours into the match. For simplicity's sake, let's say Halo starts to make its move in three hours (8 a.m. EST). That gives Castlevania 36 updates to work with. If it averages:

50 vote gains per update = 50x36 + 3278 = 5078
40 vote gains per update = 40x36 + 3278 = 4718
30 vote gains per update = 30x36 + 3278 = 4358
20 vote gains per update = 20x36 + 3278 = 3998

Even with only 20 vote gains per update, Castlevania should still hover around that 4,000 vote lead.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 7/8/2006 2:04:59 AM | message detail
Woah, two tiny lead gains in 15 minutes. Both of which were the smallest gains for CV of the match (beside the first minute of course.

Could be the Europe vote kicking in.
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...little Weezing it's gonna stand up against my ****in' Charizard? Just get back on your bike
and keep pretending to be cool with your lame ass mohawk ****er. - phoenix1487 Sp2k6: 6/6
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 2:05:33 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 7/8/2006 2:05:58 AM | message detail
Annnnd just when everyone starts to doubt, CV comes back and punches Halo in the teeth >_>
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...little Weezing it's gonna stand up against my ****in' Charizard? Just get back on your bike
and keep pretending to be cool with your lame ass mohawk ****er. - phoenix1487 Sp2k6: 6/6
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/8/2006 2:06:28 AM | message detail
Hmmm... Castlevania is pretty inconsistent right now.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
Draco1214 | Posted 7/8/2006 2:06:51 AM | message detail
That last update was really strange.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/8/2006 2:06:53 AM | message detail
What the hell? These updates are getting pretty weird.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 2:07:42 AM | message detail
That's all well and good, but how many actual sales has it generated with these games? I would probably place CV as one of my top ten series personally, but as much as I'd like it to be mainstream, I just don't think it is.

It's worth taking into consideration that GameFAQs is likely more knowledgeable and having played more than what one might think as the "casual" audience. At any rate, here's some of the sales of more recent Castlevania games ...

Castlevania : Aria of Sorrow -- 158,165
Castlevania : Circle of the Moon -- 480,643
Castlevania : Harmony of Dissonance -- 125,991
Castlevania : Dawn of Sorrow -- 176,799
Castlevania : Curse of Darkness -- 114,880 (PS2 sales only)
Castlevania Double Pack -- 39,864

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/8/2006 2:08:03 AM | message detail
Lol Romero.
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* Is Dranze *
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 2:08:42 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 2:09:08 AM | message detail
Is Castlevania being inconsistent or is Halo being inconsistent?

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
rpgapzx | Posted 7/8/2006 2:09:10 AM | message detail
As much as I'm rootin for Halo, there seems to be little tomfoolery on CV's side. Within the last 40 mins its been within a 25-30 vote range, while before then it was within a good range as well.
Halo just needs to pick up its pace.
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 2:10:02 AM | message detail
Very interesting HM. Yeah, I knew the CV series wasn't very mainstream, that was my only point. It isn't popular enough to generate a casual namesake that would give it even a half-assed day vote.

Very good information though.

My last post assumed you called circle of the moon castle of the moon. >_> I must be really damned tired, because I read that like five times, and read it as castle of the moon every time. 0_o
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 2:11:18 AM | message detail
o wate i c wut u did thar.

You did call it castle of the moon and deleted your post. Good to know I'm not entirely as insane as first thought. >_>
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/8/2006 2:13:56 AM | message detail
3400 votes and rising, huh? Excellent. Plenty of time to keep building a lead, too.
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yoblazer33 | Posted 7/8/2006 2:13:57 AM | message detail
Is Castlevania being inconsistent or is Halo being inconsistent?

For the past hour or so, Halo has been getting a steady stream of slightly over 100 votes per update. Castlevania has been getting anywhere from 125-200. I'm not advocating pulling the alarm or anything, but it does look a bit odd.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
rpgapzx | Posted 7/8/2006 2:14:05 AM | message detail
Is Castlevania being inconsistent or is Halo being inconsistent?

Last 12 updates(hour):
CV:
160, 172, 162, 195, 138, 162, 164, 142, 125, 147, 125, 156,

Halo:
107, 112, 128, 097, 115, 115, 114, 112, 108, 096, 111, 089,

It appears a little bit of both. CV's jumping to the high end of its range while Halo's dropping to its lower end and vice versa.
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/8/2006 2:14:50 AM | message detail
Looks like creative's poll updater is stalling. Bah!
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 7/8/2006 2:14:53 AM | message detail
Up by 50. Back to normal for CV. I'm still convinced this is just because CV's had an extra 3 hours of night vote right off the bat (no pun intended). I think there won't be a 2nd night vote and Halo will demolish CV.
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...little Weezing it's gonna stand up against my ****in' Charizard? Just get back on your bike
and keep pretending to be cool with your lame ass mohawk ****er. - phoenix1487 Sp2k6: 6/6
rpgapzx | Posted 7/8/2006 2:15:20 AM | message detail
For the past hour or so, Halo has been getting a steady stream of slightly over 100 votes per update. Castlevania has been getting anywhere from 125-200. I'm not advocating pulling the alarm or anything, but it does look a bit odd.

See above post. Halo hasn't been above 170 in almost 40 minutes.

Go Halo!
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 7/8/2006 2:17:49 AM | message detail
Oh, and just to expand on my point, what if the poll started at the old time? CV would only have a lead of around 1000-1500 if the poll did indeed start at 3 AM EST.
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...little Weezing it's gonna stand up against my ****in' Charizard? Just get back on your bike
and keep pretending to be cool with your lame ass mohawk ****er. - phoenix1487 Sp2k6: 6/6
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 2:18:23 AM | message detail
Well if anyone wants it for completeness or whatever this was the 5:10 update:

Castlevania 55.32% 17862

Halo 44.68% 14426

Total votes: 32288
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 2:19:21 AM | message detail
Nevermind, I got to it a bit to late, that's the 5:15 update. Bah.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 2:20:37 AM | message detail
And I don't think CV is getting much more in the way of votes, it's just that halo is dying in the vote department.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 2:21:25 AM | message detail
Dawn is breaking in the east! CV, meet your one true weakness.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
rpgapzx | Posted 7/8/2006 2:22:08 AM | message detail
With all this talk of the new time, can someone just do a study of the switch?

A big questions I'm sure everyone wants answered is:
What percentage of votes are now in the first 4/6/8/12 hours and what were they before?

This would tell us whether how many more people are staying up to vote during the beginning of the match as opposed to during the next day; it would tell us a great deal about the change in day/night vote.