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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 304

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yoblazer33 | Posted 7/8/2006 2:22:49 AM | message detail
Oh ya, Halo is definitely slowing down. The 4,000 vote lead is almost assured, and even 5,000 isn't impossible for Castlevania now.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 2:23:34 AM | message detail
Probably about the first 35-40k votes take place in the night now for most matches. So that's probably about 35% or so of the total vote... maybe. I'm pretty much guestimating here though (which is code for talking out of my ass).
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 2:25:35 AM | message detail
Oh, and just to expand on my point, what if the poll started at the old time? CV would only have a lead of around 1000-1500 if the poll did indeed start at 3 AM EST.

You could make the argument that Halo's day vote gain won't be at its "normal" level either considering the earlier starting time, too. It'll still be big, but you know. I don't think Castlevania is the only thing affected by the early start time ...

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 2:26:46 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 2:26:56 AM | message detail
This match is about 3,000 votes ahead of zelda/civ right now, and I'd wager almost all of that is going in CV's favour.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/8/2006 2:27:14 AM | message detail
Question: How hard would YOU laugh if Castlevania wins the day vote?
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
Draco1214 | Posted 7/8/2006 2:27:20 AM | message detail
It looks like Castlevania is slowing down more than anything. It only gained 37 votes as opposed to the 51 it got before that.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
rpgapzx | Posted 7/8/2006 2:28:21 AM | message detail
How much does everyone expect Halo can win at each update in the early morning? During the day/afternoon? And what about the evening?

The answer to those questions may tell us the viability of a comeback.
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 2:28:35 AM | message detail
Question: How hard would YOU laugh if Castlevania wins the day vote?

I'd probably die from lack of oxygen... seriously. That would be the funniest thing ever to happen in contest history.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 2:28:55 AM | message detail
I would laugh hard ... and enjoy the "OMG CASTLEVANIA IS WINNING THE DAY VOTE" topics that would pop up all over the place.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Draco1214 | Posted 7/8/2006 2:31:29 AM | message detail
It seems like the updater isn't catching that last one. Castlevania gained 38 votes in that update.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 2:32:18 AM | message detail
Castlevania is leading with 3,560 votes right now, too.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 2:33:59 AM | message detail
The updater seems faulty right now. Good thing we only have five minute updates, and not fifteen minute ones, so it doesn't create any real problems.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 2:36:55 AM | message detail
Question: How much onger do you think CV has before it starts to slow down considerably, and begin losing updates? I say about an hour and a half until it becomes glaringly obvious.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
Draco1214 | Posted 7/8/2006 2:41:02 AM | message detail
10 vote update for CV. Ouch.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 2:41:43 AM | message detail
It looks like CV is finally started to get around the same amount of the percentage per update as it has total. It's showing more signs of slowing down now.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
rpgapzx | Posted 7/8/2006 2:50:27 AM | message detail
Thanks for jinxing it =(.
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 2:52:32 AM | message detail
I really think that some higher power has it out for me, given how often this happens.

:-/
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 2:53:38 AM | message detail
Pretty big update for Castlevania there. Increased its lead to 3,712.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
jonthomson | Posted 7/8/2006 3:04:19 AM | message detail
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

So this means Sonic beats Smash Brothers, am i rite?
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
Draco1214 | Posted 7/8/2006 3:11:06 AM | message detail
Once CV reaches 4k votes I'm going to sleep. It looks like CV has the match at this point.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 3:12:39 AM | message detail
Lead of 3,893! Things are looking really good for Castlevania.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Zylo the wolf | Posted 7/8/2006 3:12:40 AM | message detail
Castlevania is OWNING! I don't think HALO's comeback will be that huge, maybe just 1000 votes.
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1f u c4n r34d th1s u r34lly n33d t0 g37 l41d
yoshifan823 | Posted 7/8/2006 3:18:05 AM | message detail
I'm hoping it stays even. I want Oracle points.
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RIP *SPOILERS EDITED*To see who died, go see my quote. Pay your respects here: *SPOILERS* http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=928040&topic=25183312
rpgapzx | Posted 7/8/2006 3:24:07 AM | message detail
Got about 2 hours max more to gain. Then we see if Halo has anything made of it.
Ayvuir | Posted 7/8/2006 3:25:44 AM | message detail
I'm fearing a Halo comeback. Hopefully won't happen, cos i hate the games to pieces. Plus i have CV going through.

4000 votes comeback is very doable
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Guess how many teens got owned by overrating England?
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 7/8/2006 3:27:29 AM | message detail
Haha, I thought CV would break 4000 for sure there... 4000 barrier!! Nah, that'll be broken next update.
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...little Weezing it's gonna stand up against my ****in' Charizard? Just get back on your bike
and keep pretending to be cool with your lame ass mohawk ****er. - phoenix1487 Sp2k6: 6/6
Gooper Blooper | Posted 7/8/2006 3:28:19 AM | message detail
Well, damn, there goes a point.
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People are going to buy two machines. They're going to buy an Xbox and they're going to buy a Wii... for the price of one PS3. - Peter Moore
Ayvuir | Posted 7/8/2006 3:30:14 AM | message detail
I always had faith in Castlevania. Even though i've only ever played one single Castlevania game, and that was for about 10 minutes.
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Guess how many teens got owned by overrating England?
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 7/8/2006 3:30:45 AM | message detail
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu
Oh, and just to expand on my point, what if the poll started at the old time? CV would only have a lead of around 1000-1500 if the poll did indeed start at 3 AM EST.

You could make the argument that Halo's day vote gain won't be at its "normal" level either considering the earlier starting time, too. It'll still be big, but you know. I don't think Castlevania is the only thing affected by the early start time ...


I highly doubt it... CV will just have had an extended night vote at the very beginning of the match, and Halo will dominate the day, might get a slim lead, but keep the lead instead of losing votes again because there will be a very short 2nd night vote.
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...little Weezing it's gonna stand up against my ****in' Charizard? Just get back on your bike
and keep pretending to be cool with your lame ass mohawk ****er. - phoenix1487 Sp2k6: 6/6
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 3:32:57 AM | message detail
4,000 vote barrier broken!

Castlevania with a lead of 4,056! Looks like it hit the area I suspected it would get. It's definitely in the "safe" zone. Now we just have to see how high it gets before Halo starts its day vote charge -- not like it'll matter!!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 7/8/2006 3:33:49 AM | message detail
Haha, we'll see HM. I remember how ecstatic you were when DK took the lead against Vercetti...
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...little Weezing it's gonna stand up against my ****in' Charizard? Just get back on your bike
and keep pretending to be cool with your lame ass mohawk ****er. - phoenix1487 Sp2k6: 6/6
jonthomson | Posted 7/8/2006 3:35:31 AM | message detail
4100+ and rising, this is beyond comical
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
Zylo the wolf | Posted 7/8/2006 3:35:52 AM | message detail
To be honest I don't think HALO will have day vote charge will be that big.

BTW 50.65% of the brackets had Fire Emblem, has any round 1 match been closer to 50%?
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1f u c4n r34d th1s u r34lly n33d t0 g37 l41d
Mr Lasastryke | Posted 7/8/2006 3:36:23 AM | message detail
No chance in Hell Halo wins this match... bye bracket. :(
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stingers135 is the coolest person in existence.
ThatsRidiculous | Posted 7/8/2006 3:37:36 AM | message detail
I think you guys are over-estimating Castlevania's day vote. Halo/MC's day vote isn't great by any means, but Castlevania's is absolutly horrible. A 4000 vote lead is normally more than enough, but I think with our lengthened 1st night vote, Halo still may have a shot.
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cavedog0: Dec. 2003 - Oct. 2005
Now that USA and Holland and Australia are out, is currently rooting for: France
Draco1214 | Posted 7/8/2006 3:39:19 AM | message detail
Halo should be starting the stall in about 20 minutes.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/8/2006 3:41:16 AM | message detail
Halo/Master Chief dayvote isin't great by any means? It's in the top 5 if not the very best period.
Layzerbeam | Posted 7/8/2006 3:42:17 AM | message detail
CV is gonna keep gaining for a few more hours.

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ROCKET TROUSERS!
im not making these lies up ~ ertyu
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 3:43:07 AM | message detail
Wow. That was a pretty big update for Castlevania -- it gained 125 votes. It extended its lead to 4,181.

I'll be blown away if Halo won at this point.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 7/8/2006 3:46:09 AM | message detail
Only 14 that time :) COME ON HALO!
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...little Weezing it's gonna stand up against my ****in' Charizard? Just get back on your bike
and keep pretending to be cool with your lame ass mohawk ****er. - phoenix1487 Sp2k6: 6/6
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 3:46:54 AM | message detail
Another one of those inconsistent updates again.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/8/2006 3:48:07 AM | message detail
Are these inconsistences due to vote differences in CV, halo, or both? It's just that these up and down updates for CV seem a bit odd.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/8/2006 3:51:18 AM | message detail
Castlevania responds well with that one!

Well, I'll be breaking at this point ...

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
ThatsRidiculous | Posted 7/8/2006 3:58:29 AM | message detail
These updates are a bit odd...

<_<
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cavedog0: Dec. 2003 - Oct. 2005
Now that USA and Holland and Australia are out, is currently rooting for: France
jonthomson | Posted 7/8/2006 3:58:48 AM | message detail
CV's running at nearly 60% in the last hour. That's nice.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
jonthomson | Posted 7/8/2006 4:16:11 AM | message detail
4400+, CV over 56%, MASSIVE DAMAGE
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
Layzerbeam | Posted 7/8/2006 4:16:35 AM | message detail
CV completely owned that update. =D

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ROCKET TROUSERS!
im not making these lies up ~ ertyu
Zylo the wolf | Posted 7/8/2006 4:18:05 AM | message detail
CV>KH
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1f u c4n r34d th1s u r34lly n33d t0 g37 l41d
jonthomson | Posted 7/8/2006 4:18:44 AM | message detail
halo more like halowned, am i rite?
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA