GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 303
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| jonthomson | Posted 7/7/2006 12:33:42 PM | message detail |
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Match 7 - Castlevania vs Halo Weeeeeeeeee, this match makes or breaks my bracket. There's three matches that are clashes between series that have a long string of games across many consoles, and then the opponent is one that has just two games on one or two platforms. However, said games are stronger and would beat pretty much any of the titles from the larger series in a heads up match. Unsurprisingly, these three matches are causing a lot of discussion, and this is the first of those. Castlevania has been going on for god knows how long, is pretty popular and is still seeing games come out right now. Halo has existed for a much shorter time and is on Xbox with a PC port. It also gets anti-voted from here to Albuquerque. As this is a brand new type of contest, it's unclear how voters will react. One way is that they'll see "ooh, Halo" and vote for it on the strength of the strongest game. The other way is that they'll actually think about the whole series and vote for the series. Which one is prevalent depends on the intelligence of the GameFAQs users. I don't think they're all voting sockpuppets and donkeys, and so I've gone for Castlevania. It'll likely be an upset pick, but I'm counting on there being enough sensible series-voting people that could go either way, Castlevania fans, Halo anti-votes and a sprinkling of Alucard's plan to send it through. If not, my bracket is BUSTO as I'll have thrown away at least five points as I'm picking two second round matches on the same basis. You should be able to work out both of them. It'll be close, it'll be fun, let's just hope the Belmont fans turn up. Bracket says: Castlevania Favourites bracket says: Halo Vote says: Castlevania Prediction: Castlevania with 50.08% Fun fact of the day: jonthomson has only played Chrono Trigger and Starcraft as a result of Board 8 and the contests. He liked them both, surprisingly in the first case. --- Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA |
| therealmnm | Posted 7/7/2006 12:33:42 PM | message detail |
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I'm too lazy to repost all the Crew analyses here, so if you want to read them, they're up in the topic. Just make sure my next analysis is posted in this topic. ;) --- Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6 Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC |
| Master Moltar | Posted 7/7/2006 12:46:48 PM | message detail |
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Heh, maybe I should post mine here then. It's funny to me, dammit. >.> --- Moltar Status: Excited, the Contest is here at last! Fire Emblem vs. Silent Hill - Bracket: FE - Vote: FE (5/5) |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/7/2006 12:47:38 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, Americans were more likely to be awake when Master Chief began
frittering away his lead to Frog, too, and when it let StarCraft run
right by it without putting up a fight. The midnight hours are
Castlevania's time, and they have never been Halo's time. --- SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden |
| DeepHyren12 | Posted 7/7/2006 12:47:47 PM | message detail |
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Those analyses were written before MG/SC right? How do you guys think
that match changes this analysis? SC doing so poorly on MG makes all of
that division look bad... after all, if Soul Calibur is roughly= KH,
Halo only did 4% better on Starcraft than KH did, and Soul Calibur is
so incredibly weak, that doesn't bode well for Halo's chances. Still, if Halo does win with 65-some percent, maybe we can say that some of Starcraft's strength was legitimate and that Soul Calibur's crappy performance was because of a huge drop in popularity due to SC3 not being well recieved (which makes my KH look stronger! Ha!). --- "Patriotism is clearly the greatest danger to which civilization is at present exposed" --Bertrand Russell |
| therealmnm | Posted 7/7/2006 12:48:34 PM | message detail |
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Heh, maybe I should post mine here then. It's funny to me, dammit. >.> Fine by me! I'm still peeved that my posting of my Super Metroid Rap got absolutely no comments. I might cut out the satire entirely if that happens again. ;_; --- Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6 Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/7/2006 12:49:46 PM | message detail |
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Well, look at Fire Emblem taking advantage of that after-school vote! It should be breaking 57% here soon. --- SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden |
| therealmnm | Posted 7/7/2006 12:50:11 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, Americans were more likely to be awake when Master Chief began
frittering away his lead to Frog, too, and when it let StarCraft run
right by it without putting up a fight. The midnight hours are
Castlevania's time, and they have never been Halo's time. Because most of those American's probably cast their votes earlier that day? It's different when they are awake for a brand new poll. --- Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6 Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC |
| SephirothG | Posted 7/7/2006 12:53:53 PM | message detail |
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ertyu makes a valid point!: Tornadoman78 | Posted 7/7/2006 11:46:30 AM | message detail well i know their are more castlevaina games then Halo but i picked halo over castlevaina anyway case i think more people well vote on the series of the game more then the chacrters from the game --- [Something clever was here before the sig wipe] http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585012 |
| trannyscience | Posted 7/7/2006 12:54:57 PM | message detail |
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the summer school vote! woohoo! --- xyzzy |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/7/2006 12:55:13 PM | message detail |
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I really don't expect that to make too much of a difference. Wish we
had poll updates from back in 2003 to see how MC did against Felix and
Aeris. --- SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden |
| trannyscience | Posted 7/7/2006 1:01:43 PM | message detail |
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as for the earlier poll times affecting poll shifts, Halo will do better
at 12am than it would at 3am, but it's still at a disadvantage at 12.
just look at today's match. as it got later and later, Silent Hill did
comparatively better. someone commented on how SH/FE could have been
more interesting if the poll started at 3am and I completely agree. if
the weaker game has the stronger night vote, it would be more
interesting if there was a later poll time. last night reminded me of
Ganon-Auron - Silent Hill stalled, stalled, stalled, won an update,
lost one, stalled, stalled.. and then got blitzed in the daytime. the
only difference is that we had three hours for FE to build up a lead
before the dead time favoured SH. --- xyzzy |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/7/2006 1:05:46 PM | message detail |
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But Fire Emblem still blows it out even with the old poll time, and
virtually nobody (other than Lopen, of course) would have been
expecting Silent Hill to take the day vote. Sure, maybe it's
"interesting" during the dead hours, but we know it won't stay that way
for long. It would basically have been Sora/Alucard all over again.
Yeah, actually having it close for an hour or so may provide something
to talk about, but everyone knew it wasn't going to stay that way. --- SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden |
| Lopen | Posted 7/7/2006 1:08:53 PM | message detail |
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I didn't comment on it because I'd already seen it, mnm. Of course I
didn't comment on it the first time either... but I had internally
commented! And damn it, my analyses are all sprinkled with wit! A one liner here or there mixed with analysis, they're the perfect blend of humor and insight! I get no fanfare either! Okay, maybe not the Halo one... but, uh... most of them! The point is we're underappreciated! It's strike time! Your truly modest analysis crew member, Lopen. --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! Crammed with !s http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| trannyscience | Posted 7/7/2006 1:09:32 PM | message detail |
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well, we know a lot more about Alucard (and Sora) than we do FE or SH.
these two are weak enough that you don't really know until you see it. that said, yeah, it seemed pretty logical that FE would take the day vote. still, you don't know until you see them in action once. --- xyzzy |
| therealmnm | Posted 7/7/2006 1:10:40 PM | message detail |
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Exactly, and in Halo's case, those 3 hours being at the beginning of the poll will do a lot
more for it than if they were at the end. Most people are probably
going to vote as soon as they can in these polls. At 3 AM, most of
America is sleeping, so their votes won't be seen until later in the
day, thus why Halo had such awesome day votes. Now, a good portion of
America will still be awake, so some of that day vote potential will be
seen at the beginning of the poll. Sure, it won't mean that Halo won't
be at a disadvantage, but the beginning of the poll will be way truer
to the actual match results than previously (DK went up to 53% on MC
right away). --- Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6 Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/7/2006 1:11:09 PM | message detail |
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Sure, we don't know anything about those games in particular, but we
know enough about trends concerning those kinds of games to make a very
educated guess. And hey, we were right. --- SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden |
| therealmnm | Posted 7/7/2006 1:12:03 PM | message detail |
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I didn't comment on it because I'd already seen it, mnm. Of course I
didn't comment on it the first time either... but I had internally
commented! I meant the general readers... not us! --- Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6 Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/7/2006 1:13:14 PM | message detail |
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Sure, it won't mean that Halo won't be at a disadvantage, but the
beginning of the poll will be way truer to the actual match results
than previously As I was browsing the updater earlier today, I noticed that myself. There isn't a great deal of percentage swing in most matches. --- SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden |
| Lopen | Posted 7/7/2006 1:13:45 PM | message detail |
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Psh, we're a big chunk of the reading base ourselves, ya know? --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| Anal Storage | Posted 7/7/2006 1:27:24 PM | message detail |
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Because most of those American's probably cast their votes earlier
that day? It's different when they are awake for a brand new poll. I could have quoted everything mnm said on this issue, but I think that's enough. I honestly don't know why anyone would actually disagree with that. With the change in the poll time, we should not be looking for these killer day vote turn arounds anymore. Sure they'll still exist if one character is better with the day, but it will be to a much smaller degree. --- Explicit Content I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien |
| Anal Storage | Posted 7/7/2006 1:29:45 PM | message detail |
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Still, if Halo does win with 65-some percent, maybe we can say that
some of Starcraft's strength was legitimate and that Soul Calibur's
crappy performance was because of a huge drop in popularity due to SC3
not being well recieved (which makes my KH look stronger! Ha!). Actually, then I'll believe in my theory that Starcraft made it's weaker opponents seem much stronger than they actually were, while making it's stronger opponents minimally stronger. Which would make me even more confident in my Halo > KH pick. --- Explicit Content I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien |
| Anal Storage | Posted 7/7/2006 1:33:11 PM | message detail |
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Also, agreeing with mnm makes me feel so dirty. --- Explicit Content I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/7/2006 1:36:28 PM | message detail |
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Heh, I figured that this match would end with this many votes before
the contest began, and now it's 77,000 and we still have 5 1/2 hours
left. --- "...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow |
| trannyscience | Posted 7/7/2006 1:37:31 PM | message detail |
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I think tomorrow will set a new vote total record for this contest. --- xyzzy |
| ApplesauceSign | Posted 7/7/2006 1:39:26 PM | message detail |
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Well it's still on pace to get less votes than any other match we've
seen yet. It's actually only a couple hundred votes behind MMX/Suikoden
was at this point. Hopefully it can still manage to break 100K though,
it'd be great if we could go an entire contest without dipping below
100K votes in any match. --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids. |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 7/7/2006 1:39:33 PM | message detail |
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Probably. That will be upstaged by the blockbuster MM/MK match though. --- - "ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune Not changing signature until HHH pedigrees Candice through a table. 07/07/06 |
| ApplesauceSign | Posted 7/7/2006 1:40:00 PM | message detail |
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Probably. That will be upstaged by the blockbuster LoZ/FF match though. --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/7/2006 1:41:05 PM | message detail |
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But if you had said that FE/SH would break 100,000 before the contest, everybody in this topic would've said you were insane. Heck, I remember asking a "Fact or Fiction" about whether we'd break 100,000 before the Final Four. Of the few who DID say "Fact," they pretty much figured it would only be due to Sonic/SSB. --- "...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow |
| ApplesauceSign | Posted 7/7/2006 1:45:01 PM | message detail |
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Well once the contest actually started I thought this match would get around 93K or so. --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids. |
| trannyscience | Posted 7/7/2006 1:46:48 PM | message detail |
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man... with all the shock and awe from the new people on the board,
what do you think the prediction percentage is going to be like? --- xyzzy |
| ApplesauceSign | Posted 7/7/2006 1:48:12 PM | message detail |
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If the seeds were reversed, I'd be tempted to say under 50%, but as is, 55%. --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids. |
| trannyscience | Posted 7/7/2006 1:50:46 PM | message detail |
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I think it'll be about 45%. I haven't seen this kind of whining since,
well, I don't even know. I'd say SF2, but I was only around for the
morning when SF2 was winning. --- xyzzy |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/7/2006 1:57:19 PM | message detail |
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You know, I'm not actually that sold on Halo being *that* much stronger
than SotN. As of right now (well, actually of ANY time) I would take
Goldeneye over Halo, and never look back. Goldeneye has always been a
more beloved console FPS, in fact it is credited with being THE console
FPS. I'd expect it to edge out MGS in a tight win, and I'd expect it to
throttle Halo. Hell, some of the biggest Halo fanatics I know pop in
Goldeneye regularly and consider it the better game. Now, yeah, Goldeneye kinda did throttle SotN 60/40 (ouch), but I'd expect it to beat Halo 55/45 without too much of a struggle. That's nothing monumental for SotN in relevance to this match, especially if Castlevania really does pull in the votes from games other than SotN. There's always Halo 2, but... Even if Halo isn't overrated, I wouldn't count Castlevania completely out of this match. It could still surprise. |
| yoblazer33 | Posted 7/7/2006 1:59:02 PM | message detail |
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I feel the same, Karma, although past general consensus has shown that
most people would take Halo over Goldeneye. I wonder if that consensus
has somewhat changed recently. --- Board 8: Where people treat each other right. |
| trannyscience | Posted 7/7/2006 2:04:46 PM | message detail |
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it's because of that silly list. I agree that Castlevania has a good
shot, and 68% is just silly. we're talking a MC/CATS-esque blowout at
that point. --- xyzzy |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/7/2006 2:08:53 PM | message detail |
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If it weren't for that silly list you people would still be taking Soul Calibur over Goldeneye! ...wow...that felt really stupid, saying that. Would you guys have really done that? |
| trannyscience | Posted 7/7/2006 2:10:26 PM | message detail |
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ha, not a chance. I'd have taken Castlevania over Soul Calibur and Goldeneye owned Castlevania. --- xyzzy |
| charmander6000 | Posted 7/7/2006 2:11:08 PM | message detail |
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Match VII: (3) Castlevania vs. (6) Halo Games in series Castlevania (NES, 1987) Castlevania II: Simon’s Quest (NES, 1988) Castlevania: The Adventure (GB, 1989) Castlevania III: Dracula’s Curse (NES, 1990) Castlevania II: Belmont’s Revenge (GB, 1991) Super Castlevania IV (SNES, 1991) Castlevania: Bloodlines (GEN, 1994) Castlevania: Symphony of the Night (PS, 1997) Castlevania Legends (GB, 1997) Castlevania: Legacy of Darkness (N64, 1999) Castlevania: Circle of the Moon (GBA, 2001) Castlevania: Harmony of Dissonance (GBA, 2002) Castlevania: Lament of Innocence (PS2, 2003) Castlevania: Aria of Sorrow (GBA, 2003) Castlevania: Curse of Darkness (PS2, 2005) Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow (DS, 2005) Halo: Combat Evolved (XB, 2001) Halo 2 (XB, 2004) Analysis: Now this will be an interesting match to watch. In Castlevania you follow the story of the Belmont family, a family of vampire hunters who for centuries and generations hunts Dracula and his incarnations and slay them. In Halo (in which I don’t consider to be a series, yet) you play as Master Chief who is the last Spartan remaining. He is at war with the Covenant and during a huge battle he was told to escape and he ended up on a planet that is shaped like a Halo. Now this should be an interesting match, not because this will be close, but because of the massive vote swing that will happen. Castlevania is strongest during the night SotN had 47% against GoldenEye before dropping to below 41% and Alucard was tied with Sora before losing with 44.64%. Halo on the other hand is strongest during the day, Halo came back from losing by 1000 votes against Starcraft to building a lead of 1000 before losing it all again, Master Chief came back from losing by 2400 votes against Frog to building a lead of 600 to losing by 7 and against Donkey Kong, Master Chief made the biggest successful come back by coming back from being down 2050 votes. Even though I don’t consider Halo to be a series (it has to have at least three games) I still think it will win. Halo is the flagship series of the Xbox, if there was a poll asking to list three Xbox games 95% of the lists would probably have Halo in them. This is the first time Halo has been underseeded, it’s usually overseeded, but that’s because the nominations were mostly open to a few social boards and were not so big on Halo. Castlevania on the other hand used to be huge back in the NES days, though the last biggest released was way back in 1997 when SotN was released. Even though casuals aren’t into the series anymore Castlevania still has its fans and they are very vocal. Funny thing is I can see Castlevania taking the lead at the beginning of the poll and maybe even make a small lead for it and then when the morning comes in North America; Halo will unleash unholy hell on its opponent and crush it like a bug. charmander6000’s Bracket: Halo over Castlevania charmander6000’s Prediction: Halo wins, 59.16% - 40.84% --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| Janus5000 | Posted 7/7/2006 2:12:26 PM | message detail |
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Not after yesterday! --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/7/2006 2:13:23 PM | message detail |
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But the X-Stats have Soul Calibur getting 70% on Castlevania!!! This just makes me laugh at how messed up the SpC2k4 stats are. And the only adjustments that were made were for Nintendo games. Silly NintendoFAQs |
| trannyscience | Posted 7/7/2006 2:13:58 PM | message detail |
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but the list has SOTN getting 73% on SC!!!! lol liststats --- xyzzy |
| rpgapzx | Posted 7/7/2006 2:14:42 PM | message detail |
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If the seeds were reversed, I'd be tempted to say under 50%, but as is, 55%. Usually CJC sets up at least one or two 4/5 seeding upsets which are pretty obvious, at least according to the board. I'm disappointed that the one we had this year was MMX and Suikoden, one that was beyond obvious. In a match where the entries are less well known, seeding takes a more prominent role in deciding picks for the casual fan base. Picking today's match or GTA/WCIII would have weeded the casual perfects out faster... though I should be at least 18th today! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/7/2006 2:15:35 PM | message detail |
| For all the heat HaRRicH's had to take on that Top 100 List, at this point it probably serves as a more reliable indicator for this contest than the 2k4 X-Stats. |
| trannyscience | Posted 7/7/2006 2:16:42 PM | message detail |
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I agree completely. ironically, both the x-stats and the list are equally inaccurate once you get past the top 10 or so. --- xyzzy |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/7/2006 2:17:04 PM | message detail |
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NintendoFAQs....despite the fact that FF7 dominated that contest? TuRtLe ~~~ Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| ApplesauceSign | Posted 7/7/2006 2:24:01 PM | message detail |
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Well we all know Sowl is clinically insane. Thinking Halo will beat CV
with 68% of the vote... he may as well castrate himself. Well he may as
well do that even if he doesn't think it'll get that much, but it's
besides the point. I have Halo with 59%, but if CV were to eek out a
victory, I really wouldn't be surprised, hell I've been thinking all
day of lowering my oracle anyway, and this time it wouldn't be because
of you bastards. --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/7/2006 2:27:13 PM | message detail |
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Let's see what I get when I use the Top 100 List for predicting (using the most popular game as the sole indication). Zelda > Civ Suikoden > MMX Pokemon > Star Ocean Metroid > Kirby Metal Gear > Soul Calibur Fire Emblem > Silent Hill Halo > Castlevania Kingdom Hearts > Harvest Moon Super Mario Bros > Madden Grand Theft Auto > Warcraft Sonic > DMC Super Smash Brothers > Dragon Quest Final Fantasy > Diablo Mario Kart > Mega Man Street Fighter > The Elder Scrolls Resident Evil > Shadow Hearts Rd. 2 Zelda > Suikoden Metroid > Pokemon Metal Gear > Fire Emblem Halo > Kingdom Hearts Super Mario Bros > Grand Theft Auto Super Smash Brothers > Sonic Final Fantasy > Mario Kart Resident Evil > Street Fighter Rd. 3 Zelda > Metroid Metal Gear > Halo Super Mario Bros > Super Smash Bros Final Fantasy > Resident Evil Rd. 4 Zelda > Metal Gear Final Fantasy > Super Mario Bros Finals Final Fantasy > Zelda lol liststats, indeed |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/7/2006 2:35:50 PM | message detail |
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Now, let's compare with SpC2k4 unadjusted X-Stats! Zelda > Civ Suikoden > MMX Pokemon > Star Ocean Metroid > Kirby Soul Calibur > Metal Gear Fire Emblem > Silent Hill Halo > Castlevania Kingdom Hearts > Harvest Moon Super Mario Bros > Madden GTA > Warcraft Sonic > DMC Super Smash Bros > Dragon Quest Final Fantasy > Diablo Mega Man ? Mario Kart Street Fighter > The Elder Scrolls Resident Evil > Shadow Hearts Rd 2 Zelda > Suikoden Metroid > Pokemon Soul Calibur > Fire Emblem Halo > Kingdom Hearts Super Mario Bros > GTA Super Smash Bros > Sonic Final Fantasy > Mega Man/Mario Kart Street Fighter > Resident Evil Rd 3 Zelda > Metroid Halo > Soul Calibur Super Mario Bros > Super Smash Bros Final Fantasy > Street Fighter Rd 4 Zelda > Halo Final Fantasy > Super Mario Bros Finals Final Fantasy > Zelda ...t'would have been better if we had more of these games in the game contest. Most of these matches were no contests. |
| trannyscience | Posted 7/7/2006 2:36:03 PM | message detail |
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wow, two BOP upsets, and both are pretty popular picks. go List! --- xyzzy |