GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 303
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| negative4 | Posted 7/6/2006 11:02:35 PM | message detail |
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SH is gonna lose. ;_; --- By the way, just because you don't download hacks and visit hack websites doesn't mean you don't have kellogs. - CheezWhizX |
| HAVEITAGAINLOL | Posted 7/6/2006 11:04:29 PM | message detail |
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omg no wai --- k |
| Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/6/2006 11:04:46 PM | message detail |
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I'd say 68% and 80% are equally unlikely, HM. After Mega Man X
failed to even triple Suikoden, I find it very hard to imagine that
Metal Gear will quadruple what is almost certainly a stronger series. Not at all. Fire Emblem is still very weak no matter how you slice it. The performance today is nothing impressive for Fire Emblem, as most of us expected a pretty solid FE victory today. It probably isn't that much stronger than Suikoden, although almost guaranteed to be so. And Metal Gear is certainly stronger than Mega Man X. I'd almost wager that Metal Gear wouldn't even have trouble dispatching Mega Man X in a match. I wouldn't give a second thought to taking Soul Calibur over Fire Emblem either. Metal Gear got a good 70% there, too. Metal Gear may not hit 80%, but it is not nearly as unlikely as 68%, which would imply that Fire Emblem is just barely behind Soul Calibur, which is something I have a hard time believing. Fire Emblem is going to receive the worst beat down of Metal Gear's opponents, and I think 75% is probably the minimum we'll see for that match. --- "Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/6/2006 11:08:07 PM | message detail |
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I'd wait for today's day vote before putting any money on how MG/FE will play out. TuRtLe ~~~ Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| HAVEITAGAINLOL | Posted 7/6/2006 11:09:12 PM | message detail |
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I wouldn't. No matter what happens it's not really going to impress me, unless FE suddenly jumps over 60%. --- k |
| HAVEITAGAINLOL | Posted 7/6/2006 11:11:32 PM | message detail |
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Only a 5 vote increase by FE. Looks like SH is getting ready to make
it's move. Sure it'll fail miserably, but it's going to do it anyway! --- k |
| HAVEITAGAINLOL | Posted 7/6/2006 11:16:28 PM | message detail |
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I don't understand this... FE gets a good update, FE gets a crappy
update. Fe gets a good update, FE gets a crappy update. There's only
one logical conclusion, ROMERO!!. Or coincidence. --- k |
| Janus5000 | Posted 7/6/2006 11:18:04 PM | message detail |
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The voters alternate between using Marth and Roy. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 7/6/2006 11:42:09 PM | message detail |
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Silent Hill wins an update finally. Yay for SH. --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| HAVEITAGAINLOL | Posted 7/6/2006 11:42:57 PM | message detail |
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Yes sir, it did! And that's the first time this contest we've had someone win an update who wasn't the eventually winner. --- k |
| Lopen | Posted 7/6/2006 11:43:37 PM | message detail |
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Silent Hill will storm the day vote. The Pyramids haven't even awakened yet! ... bah. At least I was closer in my loss than HM and Janus. Ha! --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| bretnsid | Posted 7/6/2006 11:43:44 PM | message detail |
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tag --- Metal Gear Solid 4 : Guns of the Patriots! (4/15/06) War has changed... |
| Janus5000 | Posted 7/6/2006 11:53:22 PM | message detail |
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Indestructible? More like... indestructibull. Ha! --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
| HaRRicH | Posted 7/6/2006 11:53:43 PM | message detail |
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Here's a thought that I'm not taking seriously, but I'll mention
anyway: Fire Emblem might actually be able to match Soul Calibur's
performance and/or beat SC. I've heard a fair share of talk that it did
as well as it did against Kingdom Hearts because of SC2, and I think it
goes without saying that SC and SC2 are the two biggest parts of the SC
series -- SC3 is practically forgotten in terms of popularity with
them. So, if that's the case, that would almost be like the SC series
losing to KH...and KH was behind Starcraft, so -- now that we've seen
SC be beaten down by MG -- we now have more
reason to believe some of the games behind Starcraft became over-rated.
How over-rated, that's your call, but the unadjusted stats have it at
34.28%, and that's not even taking away the 600 cheat-votes CJay
confirmed in Starcraft/SSBM... ...now, from there, let's talk about FE. As we've all mentioned before, FE had been out a grand total of four months when its match against FFTA started, which isn't the best chance in the world for a game to get. Furthermore, FFTA then faced FFX in the next round, so there was likely SFF in that match. So, you look at the stats...and FE has 16.59%, so it has to go up some. There's been at least one more American release of FE since then on the handhelds, and I know FE:PoR got (a distant) runner-up in the Gamecube GotY this past year (behind RE4, obviously)... ...from there, you may throw in the Nintendo boost, that it'd be an (S)RPG against a fighter, that it'd be Nintendo VS Namco (which has done work before for Nintendo, if you're aching to push for SFF in some fashion)...whatever. It may also be worth mentioning that SC got #51 and FE got #54 on the Top 100 List..... I'd like to re-mention that I'm not taking this so seriously, but if FE pushes hard and this line of thinkin' works, it may be able to avoid the tripling fairly easily if nothing else, and with a miracle could come close to matching SC's performance. No matter the case though, I'm thinkin' 80% will be out of range for MG for sure. --- Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 |
| Aprosenf | Posted 7/6/2006 11:55:43 PM | message detail |
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Apro's Half-Assed Analysis (AHAA) Ah, another match worth analyzing. But why bother? I've never played a Castlevania game or a Halo game. I've watched a little bit of Halo and it looks like a pretty good game, but I'm not really into FPSs. Symphony of the Night beat Perfect Dark in Spc2k4, another game which I haven't played. Halo will win with 55%, but its win will never be in doubt. --- For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener |
| Anal Storage | Posted 7/6/2006 11:56:47 PM | message detail |
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The thing is, I'll be damned if SC is struggling to break 57% on SH. --- Explicit Content I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien |
| transience | Posted 7/6/2006 11:57:34 PM | message detail |
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FE had been out a grand total of four months when its match against
FFTA started, which isn't the best chance in the world for a game to
get. I could point you to any number of polls... 2001 game of the year being the most noteworthy, that says that you're wrong here. otherwise, I do agree that FE is stronger than it looks. --- xyzzy |
| HaRRicH | Posted 7/7/2006 12:00:41 AM | message detail |
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Point taken, though the PS2 did have over a year's worth of sales
compared to, say, two months for the Gamecube and Xbox. It's much
easier to get your big games played when people already have the system. --- Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 |
| Anal Storage | Posted 7/7/2006 12:00:55 AM | message detail |
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3 in the AM, I'm off to bed. Hopefully FE can stabalize it's ass around 57.2%. --- Explicit Content I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien |
| Anal Storage | Posted 7/7/2006 12:01:11 AM | message detail |
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lol stabalize. Damn I'm tired. --- Explicit Content I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien |
| Lopen | Posted 7/7/2006 12:01:16 AM | message detail |
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I'm still in this. I cannot be defeated by the likes of Fire Emblem. --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/7/2006 12:18:54 AM | message detail |
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Heh. I'm surprised Silent Hill is keeping it so close. Guess there's
always the day vote to come, but I was expecting something 60+
percentage-wise. And don't expect too much in the way of blowouts come Metal Gear/Fire Emblem. Remember, yesterday was more SC's weakness, less MG's strength. |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/7/2006 12:59:03 AM | message detail |
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This is the first example of a match that would have been exciting had the poll started at 3. But... so what? ~*ST*~ --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne |
| Lopen | Posted 7/7/2006 1:03:40 AM | message detail |
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Yeah yeah, %age drop != comeback, but this stall is pretty impressive
I'd say. I'm expecting Silent Hill to try and take some votes back
soon. --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/7/2006 1:12:33 AM | message detail |
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Hopefully it can continue just slowly taking away the percentage for a
good deal of the day. Anything to get me that Analysis Crew point! --- "Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake |
| Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/7/2006 1:21:59 AM | message detail |
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What's the "point of no return" again? I'm curious because Fire
Emblem's lead is 3,170 and if Silent Hill really takes advantage of the
day vote -- under the assumption it does -- then this could get
somewhat interesting ... --- "Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake |
| Lopen | Posted 7/7/2006 1:23:42 AM | message detail |
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If Silent Hill can keep this stall up I'm feeling much better about
this match. I really do think that the day vote has potential to favor
Silent Hill, as stupid as that sounds. Seems the casual pick to me. --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| voltch | Posted 7/7/2006 1:34:04 AM | message detail |
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is there really a point of no return? --- Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft. BrentfordFC-championship here we come |
| Lopen | Posted 7/7/2006 1:37:40 AM | message detail |
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And by the way, I just realized something. The focal point of my reasoning for Silent Hill to win, the ambivalent voting base, the people who just randomly come to the site. The real meat of it hasn't arrived yet I don't think. I'm not giving up on Silent Hill yet. Keep stalling, baby. Keep stalling. Inviso and FFD may have given up on you, but I'm not yet! --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| Draco1214 | Posted 7/7/2006 1:38:45 AM | message detail |
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The point of no return is 3000 vote difference, I believe. --- Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2 |
| Draco1214 | Posted 7/7/2006 2:10:01 AM | message detail |
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Man, Fire Emblem is increasing its lead so slowly. --- Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2 |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 7/7/2006 2:12:29 AM | message detail |
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Fire Emblem just lost 5 votes. Teh comeback! --- 1f u c4n r34d th1s u r34lly n33d t0 g37 l41d |
| Lopen | Posted 7/7/2006 2:14:26 AM | message detail |
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More like decreasing its lead so slowly, am I right? (the joke is SH won the last update by 5 votes) Man, I wish I had thought about my analysis on this match better. I'd have called for this to happen. Well, not a 3000 vote lead, but an initial deficit to recover from, yes. I'd look smarter. --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 7/7/2006 2:31:25 AM | message detail |
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In order to win, SH would have to make a slightly smaller turn around
then MC made against donkey kong (going roughly from a 2,000 vote
defiicit, to a 1,500 vote lead). It's not going to happen, even if SH
manages to start turning things around very soon. It's no MC when it
comes to the day vote, or at least I would assume not. This is assuming
it even manages to be stronger during the day, and there's a good
chance it won't be. --- When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo {WoT}~> Board 408 |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 7/7/2006 2:33:45 AM | message detail |
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With that said, it might make things interesting for a period of time,
although I don't think it will manage to even come close to turning the
match around. Not close enough to make us worry at least. --- When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo {WoT}~> Board 408 |
| Lopen | Posted 7/7/2006 2:35:34 AM | message detail |
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Thing is, the way I'm seeing it, Silent Hill doesn't need to be hugely
stronger with the day vote. Silent Hill with the aid of the mass ambivalent votes needs to be hugely stronger with the day vote. And Silent Hill doesn't need to be Master Chief. One can certainly assume that Fire Emblem is hardly a DK when it comes to the day vote, either. I haven't given up yet! The stall continues and we are happy to see this! --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| BlastTheSpeaker | Posted 7/7/2006 2:37:19 AM | message detail |
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I'd mark out if Silent came back. Hell its only down by 3,000 votes, and in a fodder match, that ain't much. --- Blast the Speakers!! Hopeful Soon To Be WWEGSB FPV DL Member |
| BlastTheSpeaker | Posted 7/7/2006 2:39:31 AM | message detail |
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It would cost me a point, but it'd be entertaining. --- Blast the Speakers!! Hopeful Soon To Be WWEGSB FPV DL Member |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 7/7/2006 2:45:17 AM | message detail |
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And Silent Hill doesn't need to be Master Chief. One can certainly
assume that Fire Emblem is hardly a DK when it comes to the day vote,
either. DK isn't exactly known for having a strong day vote. And Silent Hill does need to have some sort of strength with the day vote to overcome over 3,000 votes. Very few contenders would be capable of such a feat, and I'll be shocked if SH is one of them. --- When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo {WoT}~> Board 408 |
| Lopen | Posted 7/7/2006 2:49:35 AM | message detail |
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Yeah, they need significant strength. Like that freaking powerhouse Master Hand, right? It's all relative. And my real point here is that the people that aren't fans of either series will be having the day vote power, and they will favor the more recognizable Silent Hill. But it needs to stall better! 35 vote loss... bad Silent Hill! Bad! --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 7/7/2006 2:54:07 AM | message detail |
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Master hand was down by about 450 votes before staging a comeback... SH
is down over 3,400. If it's fallen behind by that much, chances are it
isn't capable of a momentum shift large enough to come back. --- When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo {WoT}~> Board 408 |
| Lopen | Posted 7/7/2006 2:57:51 AM | message detail |
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But Master Hand could have been behind by 4000 votes in
the night and still have won that match with the raw annihilation he
dished out on Kuja during the day. Nice update by Silent Hill there, by the way. 56.42% of the vote. Gained about 20 votes... too bad it lost so horribly in the update before. --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 7/7/2006 3:01:35 AM | message detail |
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That's the spirit Lopen, don't lose your hope! --- 1f u c4n r34d th1s u r34lly n33d t0 g37 l41d |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 7/7/2006 3:02:08 AM | message detail |
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But Master Hand could have been behind by 4000 votes in the night
and still have won that match with the raw annihilation he dished out
on Kuja during the day. You're missing the point. MH wasn't weak enough compared to kuja to fall behind 3,400 votes. If it was, the momentum shift would have been much smaller, and not nearly enough to pull of a victory. --- When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo {WoT}~> Board 408 |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 7/7/2006 3:03:48 AM | message detail |
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SH would have to averae a 15 vote gain per update from now until the
end of the match to win by one vote... the longer it fails to start
cioming back, and the larger fe's lead becomes, the larger that number
gets. --- When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo {WoT}~> Board 408 |
| Lopen | Posted 7/7/2006 3:07:02 AM | message detail |
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Okay, you have a point, but here's the thing though. When MH was at
night, he was losing updates with about 47% of the vote. In the day, he
was winning em with roughly around 57% of the vote. That's a 10%
night-day shift in favor of MH. He didn't need all of it, but he got all of it nonetheless. If Silent Hill were to get a 10% shift in the vote totals it'd be drawing roughly about 55% or so with the day vote, and that'd be enough to win without much trouble. --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 7/7/2006 3:11:30 AM | message detail |
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If Silent Hill were to get a 10% shift in the vote totals it'd be
drawing roughly about 55% or so with the day vote, and that'd be enough
to win without much trouble. Actually it would bring it to about 54.3%... which is a significant difference when discussing these things. Another thing worth noting is that MH actually was strong with the day vote relatively speaking. MH is absolute fodder, but even fodder has day vote to night vote shifts like everyone else, and MH showed it was much stronger during the day again when it faced roboknik. 15 votes per update would be a hard thing to average at this point. Until silent hill actually starts steadily taking off the lead, the defecit it has to get out of will grow, and the amount it will need per update to win will grow even quicker. --- When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo {WoT}~> Board 408 |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 7/7/2006 3:13:18 AM | message detail |
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BTW if you're interested, MH went from about 33% to about 40% against
robotnik after the vote stabalized in that match. It was much stronger
during the day time. --- When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo {WoT}~> Board 408 |
| yoblazer33 | Posted 7/7/2006 3:19:16 AM | message detail |
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Sorry to say, guys, but this is all pretty pointless. This idea of
voting ambivalence can get thrown around until the cows come home, but
just think about it for a second: why would Silent Hill
convincingly win the day vote against a Nintendo series that draws most
of its power from the GBA and its ties to SSBM? Heck, just the fact
that SH is putting up a fight now (in the dead of night) hints that it
will get its butt kicked as soon as morning rolls around. --- Board 8: Where people treat each other right. |
| Lopen | Posted 7/7/2006 3:19:54 AM | message detail |
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I never said that Master Hand wasn't strong with it. I was just using him as an example of something that isn't strong, but can be strong with the day vote. Silent Hill can be stronger with it, Fire Emblem can be weaker with it, it can be a combination of the two. Like I've been saying, I don't think it's going to be as much Silent Hill's day vote strength (which could very possibly beat Fire Emblem's even ignoring the "ambivalent vote") but the strength of the day votes that don't care about either series, which will be favoring Silent Hill out of recognition. --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |