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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 302

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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/6/2006 5:43:28 PM | message detail
Wow, out all of the matches so far this one broke 100k the fastest beating out LoZ/Civilization by 10 min.

MG > Zelda again!

Also, WoW could probably beat Fire Emblem and Devil May Cry 3.

I'd kinda bet my left nut that DMC3 would thrash WoW...

...at least, WoW on *regular* GameFAQs.
jonthomson | Posted 7/6/2006 6:01:04 PM | message detail
They are pretty easy to get, just try out all the characters.

Cheers. Unlocked Jigglypuff on the first game I played, the next few did nothing.

Yes, Kirby is godlike. Although I am the archetypal SSBM n00b.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/6/2006 6:10:51 PM | message detail
Kirby was godlike in SSB, though.
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* Is Dranze *
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 7/6/2006 6:41:02 PM | message detail
Quaarma Hunter's Quaint Qubandwagon Quanalysis

Today's Match: Fire Emblem v. Silent Hill

...yeah, like I'm going to waste my time on an obvious analysis on a Thursday night. YOU NEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRDDDDDSSSSS

Prediction: Silent Hill with 133.7%
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*is Karma Hunter*
cyko | Posted 7/6/2006 7:13:12 PM | message detail
heh, well upon further inspection and more reading (thanks HM and TRE), i guess that's Ike in the pic instead of Marth. he looks close enough though.

that can only be a good thing for FE, anyways. i'm a pretty big fan of both GBA Fire Emblems (still haven't played the GC one) and SSBM; and i still confused the characters in the pic with the FE characters in SSBM. in most matches, that small of a factor probably wouldn't make much of an impact. but in a match of indifference like this one, i think that pic will push FE over 60%.

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"In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson
HaRRicH | Posted 7/6/2006 7:52:31 PM | message detail
The Tomb Raider came out on the weekend of Zelda vs. Lara Croft, IIRC. The year after that, Lara dropped 8% in the stats. Do you really think that movies have no effect on GameFAQs?

Why are people putting weight on the change between 2k3 and 2k4? Look at 2k2 and 2k3 for the change -- going from 21.8% to 22.85% on the contest where we arguably already had the most casual-voters yet isn't so impressive with the movie...and her movie was both bigger and sooner to the match than Silent Hill's. Granted, Fire Emblem is no Zelda, but it still shouldn't make much of a difference.


I like FE's chances in tomorrow, and KH/HM is...well, adorable.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/6/2006 8:01:28 PM | message detail
Is Pyramid Head a woman or a man? Obviously, you can't tell by the face, but he(?) seems to have breasts and a dress, which makes me suspicious.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
HaRRicH | Posted 7/6/2006 8:16:04 PM | message detail
I understand PH humps mannequins in the games, so it's definitely a man.
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trannyscience | Posted 7/6/2006 8:17:39 PM | message detail
no wonder Vlado likes it.
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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 7/6/2006 8:23:56 PM | message detail
MG with 92% of the brackets.
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Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here:
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trannyscience | Posted 7/6/2006 8:28:00 PM | message detail
hmm....

MG with 85%.
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xyzzy
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/6/2006 8:43:04 PM | message detail
Believe it or not, pyramid head actually is a pretty good villain. I'd still say FE > SH by far though in terms of which series I prefer.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
charmander6000 | Posted 7/6/2006 8:46:17 PM | message detail
The match will be just shy of LoZ/Civilization
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Draco1214 | Posted 7/6/2006 8:46:52 PM | message detail
MG with 83% of the brackets.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/6/2006 8:47:08 PM | message detail
I can't believe I'm the only one on the Crew that picked a blowout.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
HaRRicH | Posted 7/6/2006 8:51:23 PM | message detail
You're also the only one of the Crew that expected Metroid/Kirby to be real close..... =P
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Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here:
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Master Moltar | Posted 7/6/2006 8:54:29 PM | message detail
I'll be utterly shocked if FE breaks 60%...

Ok, maybe not.
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Moltar Status: Excited, the Contest is here at last!
Fire Emblem vs. Silent Hill - Bracket: FE - Vote: FE (5/5)
cyko | Posted 7/6/2006 8:55:07 PM | message detail
eh, i'm calling for a beatdown of 60-62% proportions.

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"In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson
therealmnm | Posted 7/6/2006 8:56:30 PM | message detail
After Pokemon beat down Star Ocean, I doubted how much the PS2 fanbase would actually matter in this matchup as well. I just kept my low crew pick just to have a better chance of winning instead of getting boxed in! I really think Fire Emblem is going to win with over 57% after seeing what Pokemon did. Still a slight chance at Silent Hill surprising. I never agreed with that "cult" thing... I always took cult to mean obscure with a small but dedicated fanbase. Silent Hill seems more widely known, but indifference felt towards it.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Aprosenf | Posted 7/6/2006 8:58:57 PM | message detail
81% of brackets for Metal Gear
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/6/2006 8:59:13 PM | message detail
And since it seems to be all the rage right now, here's my really crappily put together write up which is probably going to take me about five minutes to write:

Fire Emblem vs. Silent Hill

If you were to glance at this match quickly, you'd probably think "fodder vs. fodder that has mainstream exposure due to a movie", and that isn't too far from the truth. Everyone looks at fire emblems position in the first contest and assume that is going to be fodder, but are banking on SH being even worse fodder. Personally, I think FE is going to surprise us all and do much better then expected for a few reasons.

First of all, gamefaqs has made a pretty obvious shift towards being more pro-nintendo then before over the last few years, and it's showed in contest results. FE has also come out with a gamecube game... and possibly a second gba game, although I'm not quite sure when the sacred stones was released. While the second gba game probably hasn't added much to its fan base, I think a pretty solid argument can be made for fe9 adding a lot to its popularity, at least on gamefaqs. It may have been slaughtered by ffta, but I think it has become a lot stronger since then, both through the lnf (lol nintendofaqs) factor, and path of radiance, which at the very least has shown itself t be one of the more popular gamecube games on this site released in the last year or two.

Silent hill hasn't had a game in a few years, and sh4 was a pretty big dissapointment at that. Pyramid head was sub-kuja level fodder in the villains contest, for whatever that counts, and sh hasn't exactly done much to make me think it's cpable of holding any contest strength. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if it was the weakest game in the contest, after sff adjustment of course (lol star ocean; sorry HM :( ). The silent hill movie was both ill-received and made a very small impact on the movie industry. It wasn't exactly what I'd call a blockbuster, and I'd go as far as to call it ridiculous to think that this would make it significantly stronger and more popular a series on gamefaqs.

My basic point:
Fire emblem: lol nintendofaqs shift, well liked gamecube game
SH: has a crappy movie going for it in the last few years, and not much else

Conclusion: SH could quite possibly give tsar ocean a run for most fodderific series in the contest, even in the unadjusted stats.

Dragoontheguy's Prediction: 65% Fire emblem - 35% Silent hill

Bold prediction, probably wrong, but meh.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
SonicRaptor | Posted 7/6/2006 8:59:53 PM | message detail
I'm going to guess 85% for MG.
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"Never argue with a fool, people may not tell the difference" - Murphy's Law
Master Moltar | Posted 7/6/2006 9:00:21 PM | message detail
Fire Emblem 80% 16
Silent Hill 20% 4
TOTAL VOTES 20

ownt
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Moltar Status: Excited, the Contest is here at last!
Fire Emblem vs. Silent Hill - Bracket: FE - Vote: FE (5/5)
Draco1214 | Posted 7/6/2006 9:00:29 PM | message detail
Fire Emblem 80% 16
Silent Hill 20% 4
TOTAL VOTES 20
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
cyko | Posted 7/6/2006 9:00:37 PM | message detail
Fire Emblem 70% 7
Silent Hill 30% 3
TOTAL VOTES 10

heh.

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"In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson
SonicRaptor | Posted 7/6/2006 9:01:00 PM | message detail
88% for MG, not far off.
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"Never argue with a fool, people may not tell the difference" - Murphy's Law
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/6/2006 9:01:10 PM | message detail
Fire Emblem with 60%+ so far!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
HaRRicH | Posted 7/6/2006 9:01:36 PM | message detail
Fire Emblem 80% 16
Silent Hill 20% 4
TOTAL VOTES 20

I was ne of the four, too. Hmm...let me hit refresh.

Fire Emblem 61.98% 207
Silent Hill 38.02% 127
TOTAL VOTES 334

Ah, more like it. FE should win, but here's to hoping SH can make this worth watching. Refresh one more time.....

Fire Emblem 64.04% 301
Silent Hill 35.96% 169
TOTAL VOTES 470

Bah.
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Master Moltar | Posted 7/6/2006 9:01:41 PM | message detail
88% for MG, I nailed that in the PPC!
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Moltar Status: Excited, the Contest is here at last!
Fire Emblem vs. Silent Hill - Bracket: FE - Vote: FE (5/5)
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/6/2006 9:02:04 PM | message detail
Woohoo, go Fire Emblem!
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/RPGuy.jpg
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/6/2006 9:02:23 PM | message detail
Aw dude, this sucks. I'm hoping Silent Hill can make up some huge ground and make this a respectable loss. =(
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
cyko | Posted 7/6/2006 9:02:34 PM | message detail
hah! let the beatdown begin!! go Fire Emblem!!

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"In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/6/2006 9:02:44 PM | message detail
Here's hoping fe keeps this up. Go 65% prediction, go!
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
Draco1214 | Posted 7/6/2006 9:02:50 PM | message detail
Go Fire Emblem indeed.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
Phediuk | Posted 7/6/2006 9:03:05 PM | message detail
Just like in Pokemon/Star Ocean, I originally predicted the Nintendo series to win easily, but due to board incluence, I then thought it would just barely squeak by. And sure enough...

...WHY do I listen to you guys? *sigh*
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/6/2006 9:03:11 PM | message detail
*is happy*

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Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL
charmander6000 | Posted 7/6/2006 9:03:20 PM | message detail
Good start for FE.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Phediuk | Posted 7/6/2006 9:03:53 PM | message detail
Whoa. The Metal Gear/SC prediction % is lower than Metroid/Kirby.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
therealmnm | Posted 7/6/2006 9:03:54 PM | message detail
*goes to up predictions for Nintendo series' by 5% or more*
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 7/6/2006 9:04:23 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
4------27910----91.2826944
3------13817----85.9014258
2------3788-----80.5174234
1------539------65.3061224
0------144------15.2777778

Perfects break 90 for a prediction percentage! The rate the losing zero brackets has gone down consideribly. How many more matches before a group goes perfect?

Only one person fell off the Top 50 today. Celtic7Guardian didn't have Metal Gear winning the match.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
Aprosenf | Posted 7/6/2006 9:04:44 PM | message detail
Nice start for Fire Emblem.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
trannyscience | Posted 7/6/2006 9:04:49 PM | message detail
my last day on the leaderboard!
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xyzzy
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/6/2006 9:05:29 PM | message detail
Back down to ~61%!

Hopefully Silent Hill gets this under 60% -- 55% would be preferrable!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/6/2006 9:05:41 PM | message detail
Silent hill might make this more respectable it seems. Not by much though.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/6/2006 9:05:42 PM | message detail
SILENT HILL GAINS 4% IT'S OVA SUCKAS HAHAHAHAHAHA

IN MY RESTLESS DREAMS
I SEE THAT TOWN HAHAHAHA
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
dethfdddddh | Posted 7/6/2006 9:05:48 PM | message detail
Nasty percentage fall...
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Just Got Owned By Guru winner Voltch.
charmander6000 | Posted 7/6/2006 9:06:24 PM | message detail
Thought so, the board favored FE and now it's dropping.

Come on 57%
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/6/2006 9:06:49 PM | message detail
Nasty percentage fall...

When you're comparing the first minute of the match to the first five minutes, it's actually fairly stable.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
Phediuk | Posted 7/6/2006 9:07:05 PM | message detail
C'mon, guys. Fire Emblem is leading by 296 votes and it's 5 minutes into the match. Things are not looking optimistic for SH.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/6/2006 9:08:11 PM | message detail
I don't think anyone wants Silent Hill to win ... just make it closer than what it is now. I really don't care much at all about this match, but I do want my Analysis Crew point!!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake