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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 302

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ApplesauceSign | Posted 7/6/2006 11:48:59 AM | message detail
Snake > Samus is about as high as I'll go in 2k7. And that's because I firmly believe MG would beat Metroid in the contest (especially after MGS4) and that SSBB basically negates the exposure Samus has to people who have otherwise not played her games. Mario and up...that's a pipe dream,

Samus > Mario! Indirectly at least. No I will never let that die either, and this is why next contest we need a Samus/Crono match, as well as a Samus/MM match. MM super rSFF FTW? I agree with you though, Snake's benefit from SSBB would all but erased if he faced Mario, but I would give him an outside shot at Seph. You heard me!

Soul Calibur gave Kingdom Hearts a close match and that's nothing to sneeze at. Kingdom Hearts IS A POPULAR GAME on this web site.

Aside from this board's hardon and the Top 10 FAQ, we really don't know this.

It was part of the massive influx of Square fans that changed the face of the contest in 2003.

When you say part, I hope you mean very small part. There's no chance in hell KH takes Cloud losing to Mario and throws him up to competing with Link due to sweet cameo action in KH. The KH boost has always been overhyped to all hell, 2K2 was just an entirely different entity from the contests we know and love.



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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/6/2006 11:49:27 AM | message detail
And I will predict it right now that MP3 does not do much better than Metroid Prime in sales for America. Get your million and way goodbye. The reason Luigi's Mansion sold so well on the GCN because there was nothing out for months on the GameCube. It took forever after SSBM to even anything remotely noteworthy out. The Wii, so far, is not going to suffer from lack of games.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Slowflake | Posted 7/6/2006 11:49:47 AM | message detail
Cloud losing to Mario was a huge fluke and you know it.
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I do declare, old chap! Even a Doom score could not possibly justify the unwarranted combustion of kittens!
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/6/2006 11:49:49 AM | message detail
From Karma Hunter Posted 7/6/2006 11:46:24 AM
If anything, actually, I'd think Metroid Prime 3 is going to suffer from "MGS2-itis" thanks to MP2. Yeah, I think you know where I'm going with this.

MGS2 was the best of the series.

I know what you mean, but I can't sit by and watch it be insulted.

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Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL
Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/6/2006 11:50:34 AM | message detail
...I don't care how big MP3 is. No way in hell does it touch MGS4.

You have no idea how important it is to be a launch game. None at all.

If anything, actually, I'd think Metroid Prime 3 is going to suffer from "MGS2-itis" thanks to MP2. Yeah, I think you know where I'm going with this.

Huh? MP2 was wildly unpopular, and most of the people who played it loved it. How is that at all similar to MGS2? I'd say that MP2 is more comparable to, say, Yoshi's Island, or Pikmin 2.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
therealmnm | Posted 7/6/2006 11:52:18 AM | message detail
... Metroid Prime 3? ... Against Metal Gear Solid 4? ... No.

The hell? You act like Snake is up there with Samus right now. Metal Gear Solid games have always been bigger than Metroid games. I don't see MGS4 being a big reason for Snake gaining on Samus.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/6/2006 11:52:20 AM | message detail
MGS2 is better than anything ever, but he is right. Lots of "twos" screw over the sales of the next installment -- MGS3, DMC3, MP3 (LIKELY!!), etc.

Luckily, every three has "rebounded" to be incredible. Now it's all about the fours!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
ApplesauceSign | Posted 7/6/2006 11:52:42 AM | message detail
Cloud losing to Mario was a huge fluke and you know it.

Exactly... and this is why no one should contribute KH boost to the difference between 2K2 and 2K3, it's insanity.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/6/2006 11:53:09 AM | message detail
And I will predict it right now that MP3 does not do much better than Metroid Prime in sales for America. Get your million and way goodbye. The reason Luigi's Mansion sold so well on the GCN because there was nothing out for months on the GameCube. It took forever after SSBM to even anything remotely noteworthy out. The Wii, so far, is not going to suffer from lack of games.

What's going to be coming out between TP and SMG? Anything? Anything at all? The period after launch is a dry spell with almost every console ever made made, and the Wii should be no different.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Slowflake | Posted 7/6/2006 11:53:40 AM | message detail
Tsk tsk. Cloud would've still lost to Link fairly badly. Just, not anywhere near as badly as Mario did. Probably not even as badly as Sephiroth did.
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I do declare, old chap! Even a Doom score could not possibly justify the unwarranted combustion of kittens!
ApplesauceSign | Posted 7/6/2006 11:55:37 AM | message detail
Tsk tsk. Cloud would've still lost to Link fairly badly. Just, not anywhere near as badly as Mario did. Probably not even as badly as Sephiroth did.

What the hell does that have to do with anything? I don't know if I'm not following you or what, but my whole point was that Cloud was a weak piece in 2K2 and you cannot contribute his boost in 2K3 to KH.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
ApplesauceSign | Posted 7/6/2006 11:56:01 AM | message detail
And by "weak piece" I mean compared to now obviously. >_>

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
therealmnm | Posted 7/6/2006 11:56:24 AM | message detail
I don't see MP3 sales suffering in the least. The Wii might have a strong launch this year, but it's not like MP3 isn't a highlight of the system. Nintendo games still trump everything else on their systems. I have no doubt that MP3 will be one of the first games people will be picking up along with SMG and TP. I think the controller setup for MP3 really will entice people to buy it. It's one of the only games on the Wii that I am actually intrigued by using the Wiimote.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/6/2006 11:56:58 AM | message detail
The hell? You act like Snake is up there with Samus right now. Metal Gear Solid games have always been bigger than Metroid games. I don't see MGS4 being a big reason for Snake gaining on Samus.

I thought he was talking about MP3 as a game, which would not even touch MGS4, but whatever.

And MGS4 will be a big reason for Snake to gain on Samus. It'll be one of the primary reasons he shoots through the Noble Nine ranks.

What's going to be coming out between TP and SMG? Anything? Anything at all? The period after launch is a dry spell with almost every console ever made made, and the Wii should be no different.

Nintendo is avoiding that six month drought period between console launch and the first year. I haven't checked up on too many games right now, but Nintendo makes it sound like there'll be a big game every month for the first year, which is what needs to happen. There's more in the first three months of the Wii's launch than there was in the entire year of GCN. That should speak wonders of the GCN's horrible library.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Slowflake | Posted 7/6/2006 11:57:10 AM | message detail
Cloud probably was the second strongest entrant even back in 2002. We'll never know how he would've scored on Link, but extrapolations from Tails and Alucard show he'd have gotten something like 45%.

Yeah, weak piece alright.
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I do declare, old chap! Even a Doom score could not possibly justify the unwarranted combustion of kittens!
ApplesauceSign | Posted 7/6/2006 11:59:27 AM | message detail
Cloud probably was the second strongest entrant even back in 2002. We'll never know how he would've scored on Link, but extrapolations from Tails and Alucard show he'd have gotten something like 45%.

How could you say that when he flat out lost to Mario? Sure it was only by about 300 votes, but still. And what extrapolations are you talking about? From year to year?

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/6/2006 12:00:47 PM | message detail
I don't see MP3 sales suffering in the least. The Wii might have a strong launch this year, but it's not like MP3 isn't a highlight of the system. Nintendo games still trump everything else on their systems.

MP3 sales aren't going to be big anyway. The fact that it has to compete with Twilight Princess does not help much. Metroid Prime has had a fanbase there to buy the games whenever they release and not much more. There were still complaints about the control system at E3, though it was nothing overly negative. I expect it to sell its million or so and fall off like most other games. The fact that it is a launch title may help sell more, but it's not going to be a big part of the Wii nor is it going to do anything that impressive in sales taking into consideration its predecessors.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Slowflake | Posted 7/6/2006 12:01:44 PM | message detail
How could you say that when he flat out lost to Mario?

I just said that was the biggest fluke ever. You even agreed with that.
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I do declare, old chap! Even a Doom score could not possibly justify the unwarranted combustion of kittens!
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/6/2006 12:02:30 PM | message detail
The hell? You act like Snake is up there with Samus right now. Metal Gear Solid games have always been bigger than Metroid games. I don't see MGS4 being a big reason for Snake gaining on Samus.

The fact that this will be Snake's first return to the starring role aside, in 2k2 I firmly believe Snake is roughly equal to Samus. This is due to his loss to Crono being similar to Samus' loss to Sephiroth, and with Crono roughly equaling Mario (who I think would edge out Sephiroth in a fair match then) it's pretty even. Snake gains the major advantage the moment you take away SSB from Samus.

Yes, Samus has had Prime since then, and it's catapulted her, but Snake has stayed with most of his popularity concentrated in the original MGS. Yeah, you've got a few who like him better for MGS2, and there are those for whom he most likely acted as a Naked Snake proxy from MGS3. But by and large, MGS4 is Snake's biggest chance for displacement among the Noble Nine. Metroid Prime 3 will not make people like Samus more. Metal Gear Solid 4 will be the first return of Snake to the front and center since MGS, and if it lives up to expectations at all I'll be quite comfortable with taking the guy over Samus. And then there's SSBB.
ApplesauceSign | Posted 7/6/2006 12:02:59 PM | message detail
I just said that was the biggest fluke ever. You even agreed with that.

I agree to it in the sense that he could never lose to Mario now, nor come anywhere close to him, but that's because he's a lot stronger now. Not in the sense that Cloud should have won the match.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
Slowflake | Posted 7/6/2006 12:04:35 PM | message detail
But he most definitely should have. Tails and Alucard never were the fodder they looked like they were back in 2002.

To put that in perspective, it's the same thing as what happened with Magus and Frog against Link and Snake respectively.
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I do declare, old chap! Even a Doom score could not possibly justify the unwarranted combustion of kittens!
therealmnm | Posted 7/6/2006 12:05:28 PM | message detail
Of course MGS4 gives Snake the potential to overtake Samus, but I really don't see it happen. It's okay to remain positive though!
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
therealmnm | Posted 7/6/2006 12:06:38 PM | message detail
*happening
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/6/2006 12:06:46 PM | message detail
Potential my ass. He's going to pass her once it hits.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
jonthomson | Posted 7/6/2006 12:06:54 PM | message detail
Match 6 - Fire Emblem vs Silent Hill

Oh dear, another terrible first round match. Again, we've got two pretty weak series, and it's pretty clear which one will win. Fire Emblem, a moderately popular Nintendo-based series, ought to be stronger than Silent Hill, which nobody cares much about, and may well only have got in at all because of the recent film, which I haven't seen as I avoid video game based films in much the same way as I avoid axe murderers.

FE has had a game make the top 100 comfortably enough, and had a game make the games contest (although it did lose easily). Silent Hill has had, er, Pyramid Head, who got destroyed by Bowser. There's been some moderate discussion, but only because it's a matchup between two series that ordinarily ought to face an unwinnable match in round 1. The majority seem to be looking towards FE for the win and I don't see any reason to say anything different.

Bracket says: Fire Emblem
Favourites bracket says: Silent Hill
Vote says: Silent Hill
Prediction: Fire Emblem with 61.38%

Fun fact for the day: jonthomson is a forum moderator on Newgrounds and ran a recent favourite games poll there, in response to the dozens of useless threads that were made (and deleted) each week. He saw Goldeneye win it and placed that game in his top 10 prediction last fall, netting himself points where most people failed.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/6/2006 12:06:57 PM | message detail
It'll be okay to remain positive when Snake beats Knuckles again 70/30 too! =P
Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/6/2006 12:07:05 PM | message detail
The hell? You act like Snake is up there with Samus right now. Metal Gear Solid games have always been bigger than Metroid games. I don't see MGS4 being a big reason for Snake gaining on Samus.

MGS4 will be big for Snake because the last two games weren't particularly enormous for him. Solid Snake was not the main character in either of those two games. The game should provide a bigger boost for Snake than it does for the Metal Gear franchise as a whole.

MP3 sales aren't going to be big anyway. The fact that it has to compete with Twilight Princess does not help much. Metroid Prime has had a fanbase there to buy the games whenever they release and not much more. There were still complaints about the control system at E3, though it was nothing overly negative. I expect it to sell its million or so and fall off like most other games. The fact that it is a launch title may help sell more, but it's not going to be a big part of the Wii nor is it going to do anything that impressive in sales taking into consideration its predecessors.

You think MP3 is going to sell worse than Metroid Fusion? Worse than Rogue Leader? What the ****?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
charmander6000 | Posted 7/6/2006 12:07:33 PM | message detail
SMS came out on the day of the match not to mention the link from PGC
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Slowflake | Posted 7/6/2006 12:07:36 PM | message detail
Well, at least we've had fair warning as to the HM Blunder Of The Tournament (C) for next year!
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I do declare, old chap! Even a Doom score could not possibly justify the unwarranted combustion of kittens!
ApplesauceSign | Posted 7/6/2006 12:07:54 PM | message detail
But he most definitely should have. Tails and Alucard never were the fodder they looked like they were back in 2002.

I don't blame that on Cloud losing to Mario, I blame that on 2K2 just being a completely different monster entirely. Plenty of people boosted up not named Alucard (Tails stayed pretty consistent, hell he went down., granted you could blame that on Cloud/Auron SFF), regardless, it's not as if Cloud's path is the only thing that caused anomalies in 2K2, the votals, and voting pool was simply just different, and I'm not willing to say KH caused it.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/6/2006 12:08:34 PM | message detail
I'm starting to wonder how low my mid-50s prediction for Fire Emblem tomorrow is going to compare to the rest of the Crew ...

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
transience | Posted 7/6/2006 12:08:36 PM | message detail
Well, at least we've had fair warning as to the HM Blunder Of The Tournament (C) for next year!

and we're working on the next one as we speak!
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xyzzy
Slowflake | Posted 7/6/2006 12:08:53 PM | message detail
Cloud/Auron SFF, put on top of Mario beating Cloud, was the reason VJ was such a favorite to beat Tails. We gauged Joe correctly, but not Tails.
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I do declare, old chap! Even a Doom score could not possibly justify the unwarranted combustion of kittens!
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/6/2006 12:10:06 PM | message detail
You think MP3 is going to sell worse than Metroid Fusion? Worse than Rogue Leader? What the ****?

Metroid games not selling extremely well?! WHAT IS THIS NEW AND SHOCKING IDEA?!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
therealmnm | Posted 7/6/2006 12:10:39 PM | message detail
Magus 34.93%
Solid Snake 33.05%

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2088

Knuckles is no longer blinded to the truth! He will be winning that next matchup with Snake!
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/6/2006 12:10:47 PM | message detail
This isn't fair! How come HM becomes a rabid Snake supporter the moment things look good for him? Where was this when you were all taking Zero and Auron over Snake???
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/6/2006 12:11:45 PM | message detail
Well, at least we've had fair warning as to the HM Blunder Of The Tournament (C) for next year!

Haw haw! It'll be my shining moment in these contests that proples me to the top of the leaderboard and ensures I get that $400 dollar gift certificate!!!!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 7/6/2006 12:12:37 PM | message detail
MG vs LoZ - The Change is coming..
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
ApplesauceSign | Posted 7/6/2006 12:12:39 PM | message detail
So Tails increases 2% in the stats between 2K2 and 2K4... I don't see how that's really grounds for saying Cloud overperformed for sure, especially when Alucard goes up 7%. No one will ever convince me to take 2K2's results seriously and use any sort of transitivity between the contests.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/6/2006 12:13:46 PM | message detail
Metroid games not selling extremely well?! WHAT IS THIS NEW AND SHOCKING IDEA?!

Perhaps it's actually an OLD idea that disappeared with the release of Metroid Prime, just as the idea that all RPGs sell like **** in America disappeared with FFVII. I can understand you saying that MP3 won't be as big as other big Wii games, or even as big as MP1. But smaller than Metroid Fusion, of all games?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/6/2006 12:14:02 PM | message detail
That stat reminds me of a time when Magus was supposed to break the Noble Nine. Ah, good times ...

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Slowflake | Posted 7/6/2006 12:14:59 PM | message detail
Alucard goes up 7%

You use that bull**** Ganondorf adjustment based on Magus getting ZOMG 35% ON LNIK?
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I do declare, old chap! Even a Doom score could not possibly justify the unwarranted combustion of kittens!
therealmnm | Posted 7/6/2006 12:15:28 PM | message detail
So Tails increases 2% in the stats between 2K2 and 2K4... I don't see how that's really grounds for saying Cloud overperformed for sure, especially when Alucard goes up 7%. No one will ever convince me to take 2K2's results seriously and use any sort of transitivity between the contests.

Cloud tripled up Fox! Fox obviously has no place in this contest! Snake beating Squall's ass? That was obviously SFF! Plus there was no KH! There's absolutely nothing wrong with the 2k2 stats!
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/6/2006 12:15:48 PM | message detail
In fact, Snake is probably going to be hyped up as much as Magus was...then 2k7 rolls around and we all discover that every one of his matches were flukes! Horrible, horrible flukes!!!

lol tails > snake
Slowflake | Posted 7/6/2006 12:16:44 PM | message detail
And about Snake, it may help him sneak up on the Crono/Megaman/Sonic trio, especially if the first two's downward spiral gets in motion. But I doubt Samus is within reach, and as has been said before, Mario is a pipe (lol pun) dream.
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I do declare, old chap! Even a Doom score could not possibly justify the unwarranted combustion of kittens!
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/6/2006 12:17:01 PM | message detail

Perhaps it's actually an OLD idea that disappeared with the release of Metroid Prime, just as the idea that all RPGs sell like **** in America disappeared with FFVII. I can understand you saying that MP3 won't be as big as other big Wii games, or even as big as MP1. But smaller than Metroid Fusion, of all games?


Where the hell did I state "Metroid Prime 3 -- guaranteed to be worse than Metroid Fusion"? Because, you know, I'm pulling a blank here. And we do know that Metroid Fusion sold a million copies, right?

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
therealmnm | Posted 7/6/2006 12:17:08 PM | message detail
In fact, Snake is probably going to be hyped up as much as Magus was...then 2k7 rolls around and we all discover that every one of his matches were flukes! Horrible, horrible flukes!!!

Hey, we saw the warning signs in Frog/Snake...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
ApplesauceSign | Posted 7/6/2006 12:17:42 PM | message detail
You use that bull**** Ganondorf adjustment based on Magus getting ZOMG 35% ON LNIK?

No, actually I'm talking about in 2K3, and that should have read 5%, my math skills ftw.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/6/2006 12:17:49 PM | message detail
Hey, we saw the warning signs in Frog/Snake...

SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP
Janus5000 | Posted 7/6/2006 12:18:09 PM | message detail
In fact, Snake is probably going to be hyped up as much as Magus was...then 2k7 rolls around and we all discover that every one of his matches were flukes! Horrible, horrible flukes!!!

Except his match with Tanner.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."