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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 302

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Anal Storage | Posted 7/5/2006 9:51:35 PM | message detail
Well you just suggested as much as about 25k stuffed votes for starcraft. I find that unlikely...

No I didn't... reread the post, plus after that I admitted to not being aware of the poll change and conceding that was a reason for some of the drop of as well. Starcrafts first match was againt Halo, it won by 373 votes, if you don't think that vote stuffing had anything to do with it's victory and run, well then, I don't know what to say.

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Explicit Content
I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/5/2006 9:51:37 PM | message detail
Do you think that the stuffed votes played that big of a factor in starcrafts victories? I can see maybe five thousand or so , and even then it's unlikely that so many wouldn't be caught.

How would they be caught?

It's not vote stuffing, it's vote rallying. People went on battle.net and some of the Starcraft forums and spammed the match. You had all those people from different IPs voting for Starcraft.


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Phediuk | Posted 7/5/2006 9:51:53 PM | message detail
Damnit, why is everyone so surprised about Metal Gear doing this well? I called 77% for MG in my Comparisons Game for this match. You should all listen to me more often. >_>
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
Anal Storage | Posted 7/5/2006 9:52:36 PM | message detail
That would make Halo slightly stronger than Wind Waker, which I find hard to believe.

My argument isn't that Halo would shoot up so much as it is that the other games Starcraft beat would shoot down much moreso than Halo.

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I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien
Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/5/2006 9:52:46 PM | message detail
I would imagine that Halo 2 brought more people into that franchise than Kingdom Hearts 2 did for it's. It will be THE match to watch in the second round, that's for sure.

Interesting stats on the effect of the two games:

http://www.vgcharts.org/usagamemh.php?name=Kingdom%20Hearts:%20Chain%20of%20Memories
http://www.vgcharts.org/usagamemh.php?name=Kingdom%20Hearts
http://www.vgcharts.org/usagamemh.php?name=Halo

Halo 2 didn't have much of an effect on Halo, apparently. Its sales dropped big from the last November, which were a big improvement from the November before that.

KH1 got a big spike from March to May, selling more in that period than it had for a long time before that.

KH: CoM got an absolutely ENORMOUS spike from KH2, selling more than it had since the months immediately following its launch.

While Halo's sales certainly dwarf the others, proportions are a lot more important when looking at the effect on the series's popularity on GameFAQs. While Halo 2 did sell more than Halo 1, it didn't get nearly as many people to go back and play the original. That may be symptomatic of its genre, but it's also a clue that KH2 helps its series more than Halo 2.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
therealmnm | Posted 7/5/2006 9:52:53 PM | message detail
I think we all acknowledge that Kingdom Hearts wasn't a powerhouse back then even with Starcraft overrating it. I just seriously doubt Halo's strength to close out. It has a large core fanbase, but also a huge portion of the site that wants nothing to do with it. Remember, we only saw it in one match with Starcraft. And it's not like the PC fanbase is that big itself on this site, so Starcraft didn't have that advantage. Plus Halo probably had a good amount of bracket rallying around it too. Remember, the contest wasn't as secure back then as it is now.

But yeah, the main reason I took KH over Halo was the anti-Xbox presence on this site still being there. I'm pretty sure more votes of people who aren't really fans of either would be going Kingdom Hearts' way.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/5/2006 9:53:17 PM | message detail
I called Metal Gear with 72.57%. I'm just surprised that it has so far exceeded my rather high expectations. I figured Soul Calibur was weaker than we all thought, I didn't think it was THIS weak.


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/5/2006 9:53:49 PM | message detail
No I didn't... reread the post

You mentioned a huge shift in votals and then correlated it directly to cheating... what am I supposed to think exactly?

plus after that I admitted to not being aware of the poll change and conceding that was a reason for some of the drop of as well. Starcrafts first match was againt Halo, it won by 373 votes, if you don't think that vote stuffing had anything to do with it's victory and run, well then, I don't know what to say.

I never said it had nothing to do with it, you're putting words in my mouth. I just said I don't think it was quite as bad as you're suggesting.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/5/2006 9:54:52 PM | message detail
Damnit, why is everyone so surprised about Metal Gear doing this well?

It's not surprise. It's pure enjoyment!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/5/2006 9:55:42 PM | message detail
Also, you have to take into account that the poll position was changed smack dab in the middle of Soul Calibur/KH, which fell between the first two Starcraft matches.

That would've overrated Soul Calibur compared to KH, since KH lost some of its crucial day vote. KH isn't quite as bad as this match makes it seem.

My argument isn't that Halo would shoot up so much as it is that the other games Starcraft beat would shoot down much moreso than Halo.

You can't quite compare Halo and the other matches, since there was the poll position change and all. I also believe that there were fewer cheaters in KH vs. Starcraft, but they also had a much greater effect, since the overall vote totals were smaller. Halo and Wind Waker really can't be compared through this method though.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Anal Storage | Posted 7/5/2006 9:55:56 PM | message detail
Do you think that the stuffed votes played that big of a factor in starcrafts victories?

That is a quote from you, without the vote stuffing, Halo would have beat SC, yes? If so, then SC would have never even made it out of the first round, not giving it the opportunity to gey anymore victories, so yeah, I'd say it played a huge roll.

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I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/5/2006 9:56:06 PM | message detail
Halo probably also got antivoted. 2004 was about the time where X-Box hate was at a high on this site, back when everything was Sony and Squaresoft. Now with this recent backlash against Sony, I think alot of the X-Box franchises got a bunch of new "fans".


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
therealmnm | Posted 7/5/2006 9:56:24 PM | message detail
Now that I think about it, could today's blowout be a result of Soul Calibur just dying off in popularity? It's been a few years since Soul Calibur 2, and we haven't heard much of anything from the series outside of SC3.

Of course that plays a factor as well. I noticed a bunch of the analysis crew (including me) said that SC probably isn't as popular as it was in 2k4. I think it's more on being overrated though. Games don't lose popularity that fast.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 7/5/2006 9:56:58 PM | message detail
I remember making a topic that Halo would win against Starcraft, and was right about Halo coming back during the day and retaking the lead. Then I knew something was going on when Starcraft suddenly started to come back so fast. And then the bull **** that was every other match Starcraft was in made it even more obvious it was cheating. I don't think a lot of people believed that there was that much going on though.

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Can't think of a good sig.
Anal Storage | Posted 7/5/2006 9:57:38 PM | message detail
I'm hot and tired, so I'm going to turn up the a/c and then I'm off to bed!

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Explicit Content
I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/5/2006 9:57:42 PM | message detail
So far this match is ahead of every other match in terms of votals. lol KonamiFAQs

And Soul Calibur was leading Kingdom Hearts for a good long while before the poll was ever changed. KH might have lost a *bit* of a step, but it was exposed long before it.
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/5/2006 9:58:09 PM | message detail
That is a quote from you, without the vote stuffing, Halo would have beat SC, yes?

Correct, and it's in response to just how much vote stuffing you insist happened.

if so, then SC would have never even made it out of the first round, not giving it the opportunity to gey anymore victories, so yeah, I'd say it played a huge roll.

I wasn't arguing the size of the role it played, I was arguing how much total vote stuffing actually happened. You're taking my words out of context.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/5/2006 9:58:44 PM | message detail
So far this match is ahead of every other match in terms of votals. lol KonamiFAQs

Justice!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/5/2006 9:59:20 PM | message detail
Fire Emblem is so screwed
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/5/2006 9:59:53 PM | message detail
I call vote stuffing!

>_>
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
DeepHyren12 | Posted 7/5/2006 10:00:25 PM | message detail
"Now that I think about it, could today's blowout be a result of Soul Calibur just dying off in popularity? It's been a few years since Soul Calibur 2, and we haven't heard much of anything from the series outside of SC3."

YES! A way I can keep the KH over MG hopes alive XD
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"Patriotism is clearly the greatest danger to which civilization is at present exposed" --Bertrand Russell
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 7/5/2006 10:01:03 PM | message detail
What would be the point of vote stuffing for Metal Gear this match? It would obviously win anyway.

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Can't think of a good sig.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/5/2006 10:01:24 PM | message detail
lol over your head
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/5/2006 10:03:08 PM | message detail
Hmm... I just thought of something. It seems like CJayC is trying very hard to tell voters that "Metal Gear" includes both the older games and the "Solid" titles (look at the match pic and the banner to see what I'm talking about). Now, taking this into consideration, could he also somehow try to tell everyone that the Mega Man series is comprised of only Mega Man's classic pre-X games?
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/5/2006 10:04:36 PM | message detail
After 1 hour:

Pokemon/Star Ocean - 10838
Metal Gear/Soul Calibur - 10818
Legend of Zelda/Civilization - 10256

Pokemon/Star Ocean takes the lead. I blame Soul Calibur.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/5/2006 10:04:55 PM | message detail
Of course that plays a factor as well. I noticed a bunch of the analysis crew (including me) said that SC probably isn't as popular as it was in 2k4. I think it's more on being overrated though. Games don't lose popularity that fast.

Fast enough that Kingdom Hearts and Halo aren't as pathetically weak as people are making them out to be right now?

YES! A way I can keep the KH over MG hopes alive XD

I doubt that was serious. Even if Soul Calibur was overrated a little bit....hell, even if it was overrated alot, it would take a LOT of overratedness to make the winner of KH/Halo beat Metal Gear.

In other words, it ain't gonna happen.


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/5/2006 10:05:38 PM | message detail
Hmm... I just thought of something. It seems like CJayC is trying very hard to tell voters that "Metal Gear" includes both the older games and the "Solid" titles (look at the match pic and the banner to see what I'm talking about). Now, taking this into consideration, could he also somehow try to tell everyone that the Mega Man series is comprised of only Mega Man's classic pre-X games?

I doubt it, but maybe. If only so my MK > MM upset becomes more likely. >_>

He could easily do it by including protoman and dr. wily in the pic, as well as a megaman that clearly looks like megaman and not X.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
dethfdddddh | Posted 7/5/2006 10:06:03 PM | message detail
Bravo to Final Fantasy Tactics' performance against Metal Gear....but is it all attributed to the Syphon Filter ad? Was Metal Gear Solid that hard hit by a lack of casual votes? Can we attribute this to Solid Snake's miserable 2004 year?

Are casual series as a whole benefitting from these huge votals? Series that were thought to perform respectfully have floundered underneath the pressure of these votals; Soul Calibur, Star Ocean and Kirby were both crushed by their more 'casual friendly' opponents.

lol rheotoric questions/
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Just Got Owned By Guru winner Voltch.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/5/2006 10:06:09 PM | message detail
I really don't know who would be expecting anything else other than a Classic Mega Man pic with maybe Protoman and Wily bringing up the rear. This is a tired point, yo.
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/5/2006 10:06:09 PM | message detail
He could easily do it by including protoman and dr. wily in the pic, as well as a megaman that clearly looks like megaman and not X.

That's exactly what I was thinking.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 7/5/2006 10:06:22 PM | message detail
Something deep inside me calls...

MG > LoZ
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/5/2006 10:06:55 PM | message detail
What would be the point of vote stuffing for Metal Gear this match? It would obviously win anyway.

It's all part of Alucards plan.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/5/2006 10:11:18 PM | message detail
Mega Man is certainly going to get a classic Mega Man picture. It'll probably be one he's used in the character contest before, I'd imagine.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Draco1214 | Posted 7/5/2006 10:12:14 PM | message detail
Here's something funny according to the (lol) X-stats simulator:

Resident Evil 50.81% 35,745
Fire Emblem 49.19% 34,607
TOTAL VOTES 70,353
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
DeepHyren12 | Posted 7/5/2006 10:13:01 PM | message detail
So.... is FFT THAT good? And THAT much more popular than KH, despite their rankings on the top 100 chart?
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"Patriotism is clearly the greatest danger to which civilization is at present exposed" --Bertrand Russell
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/5/2006 10:13:20 PM | message detail
Who said Silent Hill wasn't as popular as Resident Evil?!
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/5/2006 10:14:01 PM | message detail
Yeah! Stop snorting blow off the Top 100 List HaRRicH, we have an apparent contradiction!
therealmnm | Posted 7/5/2006 10:14:41 PM | message detail
So.... is FFT THAT good? And THAT much more popular than KH, despite their rankings on the top 100 chart?

Back then, yes. Kingdom Hearts wasn't that popular back then! It had Cloud, Sephiroth, Squall, Disney characters, and DARKNESS! It was a midcard series.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/5/2006 10:15:59 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Samurai7 | Posted 7/5/2006 10:19:54 PM | message detail
I'm gonna take a page from ulti and

lol
deciding contest on one match
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Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/5/2006 10:50:05 PM | message detail
Metroid/Kirby did not see anything break the all-time top ten lists.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 7/5/2006 10:57:52 PM | message detail
"lol over your head"


I knew he was joking, I'm just saying...

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Can't think of a good sig.
REmanZ | Posted 7/5/2006 10:58:24 PM | message detail
tag
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There's no "I" in "Team" -- There's no "we" either...
longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/5/2006 10:58:41 PM | message detail
Metroid/Kirby was the most boring match yet. I'm disappointed Soul Calibur's not making this match more interesting too. ONTO SH/FE!!
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
JUST LIKE UR MOM LOLO AND URS TO LALA-Tombolo
HaRRicH | Posted 7/5/2006 10:59:23 PM | message detail
Alright, but I have a sig-bet with someone (forgot who) on SF vs. RE, so it'll have to only last a week.

That'd be me.


As for Metal Gear/Soul Calibur...holy hell. HHOOLLYY HHEELLLL. On top of all the Starcraft-talk and how this looks bad for Halo and Kingdom Hearts, both KH and Castlevania would be open for under-performing against MG. Halo also would have the biggest overlap of fans for its games' fans out of that four-pack, so...

...I hate to be another one of those who decide the fate of a contestant after a short time into one match, but I'm standing by what I've said before: Metal Gear is taking the division.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/5/2006 11:00:38 PM | message detail
This is the most exciting match ever. Every MG vote is like a sweet taste of ambrosia while every SC vote is like an achy, achy thorn in my side. It's like I'm sipping on the nectar of the gods while being softly stabbed in the hip!

...wait, that's how I feel all the time. Carry on.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/5/2006 11:02:15 PM | message detail
hay guyz

Metal Gear Solid v. Starcraft

Who wins??? LOL I'm off to bed!
longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/5/2006 11:03:48 PM | message detail
MGS would have that by 55% and you damn well know it
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
JUST LIKE UR MOM LOLO AND URS TO LALA-Tombolo
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/5/2006 11:06:20 PM | message detail
...I hate to be another one of those who decide the fate of a contestant after a short time into one match, but I'm standing by what I've said before: Metal Gear is taking the division.

That was obvious before this match ever began!!



Oh and Metal Gear Solid kicks StarCraft's ass. Solid Snake laughs in the face of vote rallying!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/5/2006 11:06:33 PM | message detail
I said a few days ago that MGS and 007 could hang with the elites of Div128, and now I'm not so sure how elite half of them are. MGS.
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Mustache...and green...
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