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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 297

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jonthomson | Posted 7/2/2006 2:06:31 AM | message detail
Haha, Zelda pwning more than I thought it would right there :-)
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
Gooper Blooper | Posted 7/2/2006 2:52:36 AM | message detail
lol blowout
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People are going to buy two machines. They're going to buy an Xbox and they're going to buy a Wii... for the price of one PS3. - Peter Moore
Ayvuir | Posted 7/2/2006 3:07:21 AM | message detail
Huger gap than i thought it would be, and can only get worse for Civ i guess.
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Guess how many teens got owned by overrating England?
voltch | Posted 7/2/2006 3:28:45 AM | message detail
is the ammount of votes due to the change of time the poll started?
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come
jonthomson | Posted 7/2/2006 3:35:20 AM | message detail
Probably. The first few hours in the old days were usually quiet because most of America is asleep.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
Grand_Healer | Posted 7/2/2006 3:36:13 AM | message detail
I'm surprised it hasn't broke 90 yet.
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A friend in need is a friend indeed but a friend with weed is better- my neighbour-http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b393/DragonMaester/arock.jpg
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/2/2006 5:36:45 AM | message detail
From voltch Posted 7/2/2006 6:28:45 AM #304
is the ammount of votes due to the change of time the poll started?

Yep.

And Zelda not quite being able to crack 90% is looking great for my Crew writeup.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/2/2006 5:40:39 AM | message detail
I'm hoping Zelda's percentage drops a percent for my Oracle prediction, which is 87.87%.

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=DC=
Chemistry can be a good and bad thing. Chemistry is good when you make love with it. Chemistry is bad when you make crack with it.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/2/2006 5:41:40 AM | message detail
Looks like it's possible.

I'm glad Zelda slowed down, because OMG IT LOOKED LIKE FF WAS GOING TO LOSE earlier.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/2/2006 5:43:57 AM | message detail
By the time FF and Zelda meet up, Zelda will have done so much damage to it's side of the bracket everyone will consider it the favorite to win it all.

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=DC=
Chemistry can be a good and bad thing. Chemistry is good when you make love with it. Chemistry is bad when you make crack with it.
Phediuk | Posted 7/2/2006 5:46:02 AM | message detail
Jesus, 38,000 votes and the poll's been up for less than 10 hours? And the votes will only come in faster as the day rolls around...
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
Heroic Viktor | Posted 7/2/2006 5:58:07 AM | message detail
I think the votes will spike less during the day than in the past few contests. More people are apt to be awake at 9pm PST to vote than at 12am PST, so more unique votes will have been cast in the first few hours than before. That being said, vote turnout always looked like it was going to be much greater for this concert than in the past few, and this is a weekend match.

A bit disappointed in Zelda. I fully expected it to crack 90%, and while it is still a possibility, it is looking very unlikely. Bring on a match we do not know how it will turn out!

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RIP - Tnote827 (4/4/05)
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/2/2006 6:36:07 AM | message detail
So guys, how much do you figure MMX needs tomorrow for you to feel more certain/worry that Mega Man will beat Mario Kart?
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Slowflake | Posted 7/2/2006 6:40:50 AM | message detail
Does anyone have the update chart for Link/Cloud 2003?
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I do declare, old chap! Even a Doom score could not possibly justify the unwarranted combustion of kittens!
TheRye | Posted 7/2/2006 6:46:34 AM | message detail
Due to Suikoden's extreme obscurity, I feel like Mega Man X would need somewhere around 65-70% for me to feel very comfortable with Mega Man taking down Mario Kart.
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In 2006, nominate Captain Falcon
“TheRye is like Jesus, if Jesus ever played video games.” -Inviso
charmander6000 | Posted 7/2/2006 6:56:40 AM | message detail
Mega Man X would have to at least triple Suikoden before I'll start worrying.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
jonthomson | Posted 7/2/2006 7:01:31 AM | message detail
I'm expecting MMX to nearly get the trebling anyway.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
therealmnm | Posted 7/2/2006 7:11:06 AM | message detail
I have Mega Man X tripling it regardless.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Slowflake | Posted 7/2/2006 7:12:35 AM | message detail
A tripling is what I'd say as well.
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I do declare, old chap! Even a Doom score could not possibly justify the unwarranted combustion of kittens!
Draco1214 | Posted 7/2/2006 7:12:39 AM | message detail
Considering that I'm already expecting MMX to get the tripling, I'd have to see MMX at least quadruple Suikoden before I start feeling confident in MM.

But that seems very unlikely.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Shin Megami Tensei: Digital Devil Saga, Capcom vs. SNK 2
Phediuk | Posted 7/2/2006 7:18:40 AM | message detail
*COMPARISONS GAME- (4) Suikoden vs. (5) Mega Man X

Sales

No Suikoden game has sold over 200k in North America. While MMX has sold like complete **** since around MMX4, undoubtedly the first few games surpass whatever pittance Suikoden has sold.

Advantage: Mega Man X

Hype

Suikoden:

Suikoden V came and went with barely a buzz at all. That's what having crappy games like Suikoden IV does to you. It's never the crappy game that flops, it's always the game that comes after it.

Mega Man X:

No one gives a flying **** about this series outside of the six hardcore fanboys who buy every game brainlessly. Seriously, what is the appeal of this series? Every game is exactly the freaking same. It became stale with MMX2.

Advantage: Suikoden

Number of Games

Suikoden:

Main series-

Suikoden (PSX, 1996)
Suikoden II (PSX, 1999)
Suikoden III (PS2, 2002)
Suikoden IV (PS2, 2005)
Suikoden V (PS2, 2006)

Spinoffs/ports-

Genso Suikoden (Saturn, 1996)
Genso Suikogaiden Vol. 1- Swordsman of Harmonia (PSX, 2000)
Genso Suikogaiden Vol. 2- Duel at Crystal Valley (PSX, 2001)
Genso Suikoden Card Stories (GBA, 2001)
Suikoden Tactics (PS2, 2005)
Genso Suikoden I&II (PSP, 2006)

Total- 11
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Mega Man X:

Main series-

Mega Man X (SNES, 1993)
Mega Man X2 (SNES, 1994)
Mega Man X3 (SNES, 1995)
Mega Man X4 (PSX, 1997)
Mega Man X5 (PSX, 2001)
Mega Man X6 (PSX, 2001)
Mega Man X7 (PS2, 2003)
Mega Man X8 (PS2, 2004)

Spinoffs/ports-

(I feel silly doing this. The whole goddamn series is a spinoff already.)

Mega Man X (PC, 1995)
Mega Man X3 (PSX, 1996)
Mega Man X3 (Saturn, 1996)
Mega Man X4 (Saturn, 1997)
Mega Man X3 (PC, 1998)
Mega Man X4 (PC, 1998)
Mega Man X5 (PC, 2001)
Mega Man X6 (PC, 2001)
Mega Man Xtreme (GBC, 2001)
Mega Man Xtreme 2 (GBC, 2001)
Mega Man X7 (PC, 2003)
Mega Man X8 (PC, 2006)
Mega Man X: Command Mission (PS2, 2004)
Mega Man X: Command Mission (GC, 2004)
Mega Man X: Maverick Hunter (PSP, 2006)
Mega Man X Collection (GC, 2006)
Mega Man X Collection (PS2, 2006)
Total- 25

Advantage: Mega Man X

GameFAQs Status

Number of FAQs:

Suikoden:

Suikoden- 21
Suikoden II- 38
Suikoden III- 30
Suikoden IV- 17
Suikoden V- 21
Total- 127

Mega Man X:

Mega Man X- 18
Mega Man X2- 12
Mega Man X3- 12
Mega Man X4- 17
Mega Man X5- 10
Mega Man X6- 10
Mega Man X7- 10
Mega Man X8- 6
Total- 96

Advantage: Suikoden
Phediuk | Posted 7/2/2006 7:19:05 AM | message detail
Average review score/Number of reviews:

Suikoden:

Suikoden- 8.78 (51)
Suikoden II- 9.24 (51)
Suikoden III- 8.25 (61)
Suikoden IV- 6.88 (40)
Suikoden V- 8.55 (31)
Series average- 8.34 (234)

Mega Man X:

Mega Man X- 9.19 (47)
Mega Man X2- 8.55 (31)
Mega Man X3- 8.46 (28)
Mega Man X4- 8.49 (35)
Mega Man X5- 7.00 (32)
Mega Man X6- 6.62 (42)
Mega Man X7- 7.34 (38)
Mega Man X8- 8.50 (22)
Series average- 8.02 (275)

Advantage: Suikoden/Mega Man X

Board activity:

The Suikoden boards aren't terribly large, but their status is certainly better than MMX's boards, which are all ghost towns.

Advantage: Suikoden

Board Odds Project:

Match prediction:

Megaman X- 131
Suikoden- 2

Can't get much more lopsided than that.

Advantage: Mega Man X

Point value:

Megaman X- 131
Suikoden- 2

Everyone has these two losing to Zelda in the second round. Shocking.

Advantage: Mega Man X

Previous contest representation

Suikoden:

Sp2004-

Suikoden II (47th)

SC2004-

Luca Blight (62nd)

Sp2005-

Luca Blight (30th)

Suikoden is crap in these contests. End of discussion.

Mega Man X:

SC2003:

Zero (14th)

SC2004:

Zero (10th)

Sp2005:

Sigma (21st)

SC2005:

Zero (18th)

MMX is clearly a much stronger force in past contests than Suikoden.

Advantage: Mega Man X

Intangibles

Every other factor in this match could be going in favor of Suikoden, and MMX would still win based on name recognition. Ask the average person about Suikoden, and they'll likely reply "Sweep-what?"

Advantage: Mega Man X

Conclusion

I don't think MMX will wipe the floor with Suikoden (like what Zelda is doing today), but look for a decisive victory from the "Badass" Blue Bomber. 70% or so.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
therealmnm | Posted 7/2/2006 7:20:30 AM | message detail
No one gives a flying **** about this series outside of the six hardcore fanboys who buy every game brainlessly. Seriously, what is the appeal of this series? Every game is exactly the freaking same. It became stale with MMX2.

Get this trash out of this topic. Now.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 7/2/2006 7:31:31 AM | message detail
Does anyone have the update chart for Link/Cloud 2003?

http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/LinkvsCloud.txt

Even starting an hour earlier, this match isn't even close to matching it. Perhaps LoZ vs FF will.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 7/2/2006 7:37:55 AM | message detail
Seriously.

Bias'd analysises fail.
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
Read_Only_Thx | Posted 7/2/2006 7:42:09 AM | message detail
Bias'd analysises fail.

They're much more fun to read, so Pheduik's > all.
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sig
XBassXUmbraX | Posted 7/2/2006 8:03:30 AM | message detail
I think the whole key to this contest, including the Suikoden Battlle looming, is knowing what GameFaqs users like, RPGs, albeit there are plenty of better RPGs and action RPGs on the list, Mega Man X is not going to beat Suikoden, but that is my opinion, there are still plenty of people that do appreciate the simple 2D side-scrolling action, despite the fact that the later games in the X series were crap. Again my opinion.
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Paper Bowser-a twist to your PM2 interactive story
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=920182&topic=28964898
Slowflake | Posted 7/2/2006 8:06:38 AM | message detail
Please. Nobody played Suikoden.

Remember Luca Blight getting his ass handed to him by Wesker, who turned out to be a complete chump?
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I do declare, old chap! Even a Doom score could not possibly justify the unwarranted combustion of kittens!
DeathChicken | Posted 7/2/2006 8:12:20 AM | message detail
Lies. I played Suikoden in my playthrough topic http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=26672668












</shill>
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We are thought, and reality, and concept, and the unimaginable
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/2/2006 8:13:23 AM | message detail
Heh. Pretty crazy seeing these kinds of vote totals this early.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
yoblazer33 | Posted 7/2/2006 8:19:46 AM | message detail
Has creative given any word on when the site will be updated?
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
capatillistpiglet | Posted 7/2/2006 8:22:20 AM | message detail
I would also like to know, I was looking forward to visiting the update pages.
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Hay, my message and sig have been swapped around.
Slowflake | Posted 7/2/2006 8:23:09 AM | message detail
Riiiiight.

Seriously, it was an exaggeration. When the strongest non-Square RPG character is Diablo, you gotta wonder what it is GameFAQs goers actually like.
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I do declare, old chap! Even a Doom score could not possibly justify the unwarranted combustion of kittens!
Tediz247 | Posted 7/2/2006 8:28:42 AM | message detail
Wow, this match picture is hawt. Also, looks like I undershot the tiebreaker by quite a bit. I was banking on this contest not being very popular.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
Tediz247 | Posted 7/2/2006 8:29:44 AM | message detail
I... take that quite a bit back. This contest is going to shatter 2K3's totals.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
charmander6000 | Posted 7/2/2006 8:33:49 AM | message detail
CN said Monday IIRC.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
ApplesauceSign | Posted 7/2/2006 8:40:54 AM | message detail
Yeah, but you can still view the updater. I had a prediction of 90.18%, hopefully it'll land right around there.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
Ngamer64 | Posted 7/2/2006 8:43:22 AM | message detail
No need to wait until Monday!

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2425

We just have to edit that last number to be the current match ID, see?

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"lol x-stats" - The Contest Simulator: http://thengamer.com/xstats
Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
Master Moltar | Posted 7/2/2006 8:43:23 AM | message detail
It seems Civ cut down the percentage over night, but with the day vote coming, Zelda should be climbing soon.

That shows me to overestimate the hardcore PC-game fanbase!
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Moltar Status: Excited, the Contest is here at last!
LoZ vs. Civilization - Bracket: LoZ - Vote: LoZ (0/0)
therealmnm | Posted 7/2/2006 8:46:03 AM | message detail
Don't expect that much of a day vote swing. It is Sunday. Besides, would Civilization be something that's good with the night vote? Is it a worldwide series, or is it just popular in America?
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
jonthomson | Posted 7/2/2006 8:53:15 AM | message detail
Match 2 - Suikoden vs Mega Man X

What a shame for the (wider) Mega Man series of games. First they had the indignity of being snubbed completely in the Spring 2004 contest, pretty much purely because there's so many of them that nobody could decide on which is the best. Not a single game made it into the top 100 list, quite possibly for the same reasons. And now, due to the way the Mega Man games are split into two distinct series (and again, fans can't really decide which is best), we've got two making the contest, which will get through one match (or, in the case of the original Mega Man series, *possibly* get through one match) before rolling over and dying in the face of heavyweight series.

On the other hand we have Suikoden, an RPG series mainly for the Playstation. Now if there's anything we've learned from the games contests and character battles, it's that anything RPG related that doesn't have the word "Final" or "Chrono" somewhere in close relation to it, it's as weak as anything. Or Mario, to explain why SF2 lost, but that's a side issue.

I think that for once I'll manage to get through two matches undefeated here (and probably mess up match three, lol). I can't remember my 2003 bracket, but I'm pretty sure I had Fox losing, I had Metroid losing to Pac-Man, Alucard winning, I got the villain match two right (I was, in fact, on the leaderboard right up until Diablo destroyed my bracket), and I wasn't the only one to miss Ness. Suikoden's one of those entries that seems to infest most brackets, the "glad to be here" type of entrant, who'll lose to pretty much anything that's so much as a midcarder. We could easily have had Suikoden face Final Fantasy in round 1 (making MMX/Diablo instead which might have been more interesting), but we'll have to do with this. Can't see too many people missing this one. As a side issue, this ought to set up a Zelda - MMX second round match, and we might see whether there was any truth in the suggestion that there was Link/Mega Man SFF. Can't see anything conclusive turning up either way, especially seeing how you can't possibly compare characters to series, but it might be a start.

Bracket says: MMX
Favourites bracket says: MMX
Vote says: MMX
Prediction: MMX with 74.23%

Fun fact for the day: jonthomson considers his biggest bracket making error to be the match which would decide who would face Chrono Trigger in the 16-bit final. Not only did he have Super Metroid winning, he had it winning over Doom.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
charmander6000 | Posted 7/2/2006 8:56:09 AM | message detail
If this keeps up this match will only break 100k
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Slowflake | Posted 7/2/2006 9:07:59 AM | message detail
So did Link/AiAi.
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I do declare, old chap! Even a Doom score could not possibly justify the unwarranted combustion of kittens!
LordOfDabu | Posted 7/2/2006 9:48:07 AM | message detail
46,198 entries in a 31 match contest...

How many perfects are we going to see?
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The GameFAQs StarCraft Tournament of Champions 2006 Bracket:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=2000184&topic=28995048
Buy A Dreamcast | Posted 7/2/2006 9:48:42 AM | message detail
Zero. Because that's how these contests roll.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/2/2006 9:55:31 AM | message detail
We'll see at least one perfect bracket; it'll belong to me!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Aprosenf | Posted 7/2/2006 10:00:46 AM | message detail
Apro's Half-Assed Analysis (AHAA)

Suiko-what? Sudoku would have a better chance at beating the Blue Bomber here (and yes, there are several Sudoku video games, mostly for the GBA and DS). Mega Man X is one of my favorite series (and it sucks it has to lose to Zelda). I've had Mega Man X for as long as I can remember, and in the last couple of years I picked up X2, X3, and X4, and I played through X5 on a rental copy from a store in the middle of nowhere in Maine. Of course I also have MMXC. Oh right, the match. Look for MMX to triple Suiko-what.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
Master Moltar | Posted 7/2/2006 10:01:09 AM | message detail
Yeah right Mr. Star Ocean > Pokemon!!

Oh, and I meant Zelda's day vote might get it close to 90% is all I meant. It's certainly pushing for 89.5 now.
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Moltar Status: Excited, the Contest is here at last!
LoZ vs. Civilization - Bracket: LoZ - Vote: LoZ (0/0)
TRE Public Account | Posted 7/2/2006 10:06:15 AM | message detail
LoZ is currently taking in 91% of the incoming votes. It can still break 90% by the end of the day.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/2/2006 10:10:48 AM | message detail
LoZ's last three hourly averages:

13:00 | 91.55%
12:00 | 90.02%
11:00 | 90.42%

If it keeps it up during the day, it'll probably hit 90% fairly easily. And it averaged 89.85% and 90.33% during the first two hours of the poll, so it probably won't have too much trouble with the second "night" vote.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/NintendoDesktop2.jpg