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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 296

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transience | Posted 6/29/2006 7:12:12 AM | message detail
nice, Aprosenf.
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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 6/29/2006 8:05:59 AM | message detail
Apro, you rule -- I was hoping to see that featured somehow. To show off its worth, I found these three polls very quickly (about Kirby):

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=197
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=225
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=261

Add it along with these two polls I've shown before:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=771
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1869

Kirby will be doing no upsetting.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/29/2006 8:11:51 AM | message detail
It also blows that the bottom two options in today's poll are far-and-away the most popular choices. Damn.
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red sox 777 | Posted 6/29/2006 9:47:42 AM | message detail
I think the bottom two options were always the most popular in past pre-contest polls. They always come around by the first match, when votals quickly surpass pre-contest amounts.

As for Kirby, Harrich, most of those polls are very old, and remember, Kirby is much much stronger now than in 2002, when he lost to Jill.
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1123581321345589
Applause Sign | Posted 6/29/2006 11:32:18 AM | message detail
Previous Contest Related Polls:

Have you entered the 10th Anniversary Contest yet? (Entries due today!)

9634 20.8% Yep, FF7 all the way!
4957 10.7% Yes, I've got my entry in
5221 11.27% Not yet, but I will today
17085 36.89% No, there's no way I could win
9414 20.33% No, I just hate contests


Poll 2065 (07/18/2005)
Have you entered the Summer Contest yet?

6077 12.49% Yes, and my bracket is flawless
8937 18.37% Yes, but my bracket's shaky
1366 2.81% No, but I will before 6PM Pacific!
13660 28.08% No, I'm sitting this one out
18609 38.25% Contest? What's this about a contest?


Poll 2051 (07/04/2005)
Have you entered the Summer Contest yet?

3346 7.5% Yes, and I plan to win
3804 8.53% Yes, but I don't think I'll do well
3908 8.76% Not yet, but I will very soon
9459 21.21% No, these contests do nothing for me
24082 54% Contest? What contest?


Poll 1978 (04/22/2005)
Have you entered the Spring Contest yet?

3840 9.59% Yes, and I plan on winning
4179 10.44% Yes, but I don't like my chances
3372 8.42% Not yet, but I will very soon
7772 19.42% No, it just doesn't interest me
20867 52.13% Contest? What contest?


Poll 1709 (07/23/2004)
Have you entered the Summer Contest yet?

4281 14.2% Yes, I'm sure to do well
6103 20.24% Yes, but my bracket's shaky
1836 6.09% No, I'll do it this week
1511 5.01% No, I'll wait until the last minute
16416 54.45% No, I'm not entering


Poll 1689 (07/02/2004)
Have you entered your bracket in the Summer Contest yet?

2632 8.54% Yes, and it's a sure thing
2998 9.73% Yes, but I don't have much faith in it
7054 22.89% No, but I will shortly
2693 8.74% No, I'm going to wait a while
15436 50.1% No, I don't plan to


Poll 1557 (03/13/2004)
Have you entered the Spring Contest yet?

5849 13.03% Yes, and I think I'll do well
6006 13.38% Yes, but I don't have much hope
3105 6.91% No, but I plan to soon
6211 13.83% No, I don't want to enter
23733 52.85% Contest? Where?


I could keep getting, but you get the idea, these results aren't any different than usual. Thanks Apro. >_>



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Applause Sign | Posted 6/29/2006 11:32:57 AM | message detail
*keep going.

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therealmnm | Posted 6/29/2006 11:38:18 AM | message detail
We know what you meant. You were getting off on poll data. No need for corrections.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Applause Sign | Posted 6/29/2006 11:39:22 AM | message detail
You caught me!

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Slowflake | Posted 6/29/2006 11:48:00 AM | message detail
It appears as though contest awareness is on the rise... as for people who care, though, it's the same as usual.
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Everything is "Ridiculous! Nonsense! If you believe that, you're a fool! How can that be when..." You'd make a great PW witness. -Shake to Vlado
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/29/2006 12:39:40 PM | message detail
Well, I would hope that contest awareness would improve with a HUGE banner right in your face as soon as you get to the front page. Not everyone is going to take the time to read the site news, but it's hard to miss the banner. I think that was part of the reason for having the banner in the first place.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
FastFalcon05 | Posted 6/29/2006 1:02:34 PM | message detail
Like I said before, I wouldn't bet on MG being the fourth strongest series. But you want me to consider frigging Kingdom Hearts over it...ignoring Snake/Sora, the series with the game that nearly lost to Soul Calibur (and that I've been harping on for multiple topics <_<)?

granted this is more from the last topic, but it's still an issue that's been going on ever since Kingdom Hearts "disappointed" in the games contest. It isn't cool that Kh is "the series that almost lost to Soul Calibur" when it performed just fine against Starcraft, which had close matches with any series of worth. It's definitely more a credit to Soul Calibur's strength than it is to KH's weakness, I'm just surprised more people don't say it as such. It's as if Kh cost people points in their bracket and they've never forgiven it as a result.

and SSBM will always beat FFX! Go ahead and put master hand up against the cast of X, it will only further the humiliation!

KH > MG, thus it is written, thus it shall be.

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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
dethfdddddh | Posted 6/29/2006 1:31:56 PM | message detail
Hope we get an upset themed poll tommorow...

Never quite understood why Master Hand did better in that poll than the much stronger Bison.
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Just Got Owned By Guru winner Voltch.
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/29/2006 1:53:50 PM | message detail
granted this is more from the last topic, but it's still an issue that's been going on ever since Kingdom Hearts "disappointed" in the games contest. It isn't cool that Kh is "the series that almost lost to Soul Calibur" when it performed just fine against Starcraft, which had close matches with any series of worth.

Yeah, and nothing funny was going on in ANY of Starcraft's matches at all. The fact that Halo/Starcraft had the highest votals of the contest by FAR, the insane comeback against WW, the part where it got caught red-handed cheating against SSBM. No, nothing suspicious going on there.

It's definitely more a credit to Soul Calibur's strength than it is to KH's weakness, I'm just surprised more people don't say it as such.

It's a result of people only focusing on how series go out in the contest rather than focusing on their other matches. I want you to look at the games that Soul Calibur is above in the X-Stats for that contest: Street Fighter II, Super Mario World, Metroid Prime, Metal Gear Solid 2, Final Fantasy, the list goes on. I don't take Soul Calibur's strength lightly. It is my favorite fighting game of all time, and I still play it even today, for it to be that strong would be a dream to me. But it is a Dreamcast game, one that wasn't terribly popular (though it received high critical acclaim), and it's a FIGHTING GAME. The reason why KH won't stand a chance against MG, why Nightmare has in my eyes the biggest chance by FAR of bombing in the character contest, all points back to SC. It simply isn't that strong, and never has been. Now, that's no absolute on how it will perform in this contest thanks to the likes of SCII and SCIII, but I have no faith in SCI. The voters aren't stupid, and they know the difference between them.

It's as if Kh cost people points in their bracket and they've never forgiven it as a result.

Hey, I still have it going past Halo, and I'd play a Halo game over a KH game any day. I'm realistic.

KH > MG, thus it is written, thus it shall be.

But please, PLEASE take KH over MG. It would help me out so much.
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*is Karma Hunter*
therealmnm | Posted 6/29/2006 2:26:15 PM | message detail
First round write-ups = sent
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
trannyscience | Posted 6/29/2006 2:31:59 PM | message detail
hmm... anyone know the exact number of entries for sc2k5? (I don't feel like counting.) it's probably not accurate, but if we compare these two polls:


Have you entered the 10th Anniversary Contest yet? (Entries due today!)

9634 20.8% Yep, FF7 all the way!
4957 10.7% Yes, I've got my entry in
5221 11.27% Not yet, but I will today
17085 36.89% No, there's no way I could win
9414 20.33% No, I just hate contests

Poll 2065 (07/18/2005)
Have you entered the Summer Contest yet?

6077 12.49% Yes, and my bracket is flawless
8937 18.37% Yes, but my bracket's shaky
1366 2.81% No, but I will before 6PM Pacific!
13660 28.08% No, I'm sitting this one out
18609 38.25% Contest? What's this about a contest?


we can probably estimate how many people entered the top 10 contest if we compare the amount of entries to how many people answered the poll.
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xyzzy
Applause Sign | Posted 6/29/2006 2:38:58 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/sum05_stats.html

Add those numbers together if you're really that interested.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 6/29/2006 2:40:35 PM | message detail
Screw it, I actually just switched to Halo (and switched to Metroid > Kirby again >_________________>). I'll likely be kicking myself, as I'm going against my gut and a lot of my arguments go against it as well...but there are some things that I just can't ignore.
Applause Sign | Posted 6/29/2006 2:46:16 PM | message detail
Like my huge manstick.

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trannyscience | Posted 6/29/2006 2:47:14 PM | message detail
yeah, hence the "I don't feel like counting." I bet TRE has the number stored somewhere in his circuits.
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xyzzy
Applause Sign | Posted 6/29/2006 2:48:44 PM | message detail
Oh... >_>

*fondles*

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XIII_rocks | Posted 6/29/2006 2:55:29 PM | message detail
Been a long time since I posted in the Stats topic. >_<

Do you think there might be a Knuckles/Magus style upset in this contest? Or at least a close one?
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Beef Jerky, Catgirls, DESU DESU DESU! O_o
Applause Sign | Posted 6/29/2006 2:56:07 PM | message detail
I hate that question, and no.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 6/29/2006 3:03:27 PM | message detail
I counted, and got 31,390 entries as my result. If there's something wrong, blame it on dyslexia. It also brought to my attention exactly how bad most of these entries really are. I can't imagine they're all favorite brackets.

And if we're going to see any upset Knuckles/Magus style, it's going to have to come from something massively overrated being upset in the first round by something underrated that no one saw coming. The best candidate for that would be Halo/Castlevania, except the board's dislike of Halo has made that less of an upset. I guess if there were to be one it would be either Metroid/Kirby (ironically for me) or Metal Gear/Soul Calibur (even more ironically for me).
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 6/29/2006 6:13:39 PM | message detail
You're a bit off. It's 33793.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
trannyscience | Posted 6/29/2006 6:18:35 PM | message detail
ha. TRE to the rescue!

well, according to that poll, 44.43% of the people who submitted brackets voted. (I don't think things like favourites brackets and zero brackets are a very large percentage at all, so I'll just ignore them.)

if the same percentage of people voted in both polls, there are.. 21684 entries for The List. I doubt it's actually that high, but there ya go.

as for a Knuckles/Magus, it'd have to be MG/SC - favourite to take a debated division vs. an entry that got poor bracket placement.
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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 6/29/2006 7:17:20 PM | message detail
As for Kirby, Harrich, most of those polls are very old, and remember, Kirby is much much stronger now than in 2002, when he lost to Jill.

Point taken, but his strength is still nowhere that of Samus's and no game of his can match either Super Metroid or Metroid Prime here. When you add that to other things the polls showed, it just seals the deal. In the generation Kirby could have really taken advantage to get an edge on Metroid (the N64 era), Kirby 64 flunked; as far as anticipation for games in June of 2000 goes, it landed between "There's nothing good out this month" and "Other". About a month later, when the polls asked what the best game of 2000 was, Kirby 64 had only beat Dragon Warrior Monsters and Pokemon Trading Card Game (both handheld games, for what it's worth). It flunked back then, and I don't think the ever-increasing presence of Kirby helps Kirby 64's cause today either...

...so Kirby didn't really get much on an edge there. We know Kirby Super Star ain't touching Super Metroid, and we know Kirby Air Ride is nowhere near either Metroid Prime game, so there goes those generations. Metroid would have Kirby's number on the NES, too, so we'll scratch that...

...so that leaves the handheld games. Kirby: Canvas Curse likely helped him last year, though MP:Hunters should counter it if nothing else. Kirby's Block Ball, Kirby's Dream Land, Kirby's Dream Land 2, and Kirby's Pinball Land...I got no clue, but I wouldn't think they'd amount to much to Kirby's strength. Kirby & the Amazing Mirror got decimated by most of the games in its GBA-GotY poll (which featured Metroid: Zero Mission winning, no less), and, as I figure many thought would happen, Kirby's Tilt 'n Tumble was annihilated in its GBC-GotY poll.

In the old(er) fave-Nintendo-series poll, Kirby ranked behind Metroid by 6.23%. In the (less) old fave-Nintendo-series poll -- though Kirby was left out of it -- Metroid still gained 2.11% from the last time...and that poll was held months before the Gamecube was released. That means no MP, no MP2, no M:ZM, and no MP:H. Kirby's last noteworthy-release (K:CC) OR most noteworthy-release (KSS) likely can't beat most of those one-on-one, so -- despite Kirby gaining so much more in strength since 2002 (and before that, I'm sure) -- Kirby doesn't hold any ground on Metroid practically anywhere. It'll do better on Metroid today than it would have in 2002, sure...but it should still get bad.


Man, I typed way too much for that match -- it's bigger (and much harsher on Kirby) than my actual analysis for the match is, heh.
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therealmnm | Posted 6/29/2006 7:35:22 PM | message detail
Why are people even CONSIDERING that Kirby games are more popular than Metroid games on this site? They are taking that Zelda SFFing Metroid thing a little too far. Metroid Prime = GotY. Metroid Prime 2 = 3rd Place for Game of the Year and Gamecube GotY. Metroid Prime: Zero Mission = GBA GotY. Metroid Fusion = GBA GotY. Where does Kirby even come into the conversation in taking down Metroid?
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 6/29/2006 7:54:08 PM | message detail
This is just something to look at for fun. I've been planning to do this for a while but it was unrealitic wiith so many poll. However Aprosenf's poll listing completely changes that so here it is. Non-contest match Top 10 listings:

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) Which series has had the best transition from 2D to 3D? - 133398*
2) Got GameCube? - 113615*
3) Should there be another Character Battle next year? - 103826
4) Which of the three next-gen consoles do you think you'll own by this time next year? - 94504
5) ? - 94118
6) Where do you sleep at night? - 93526
7) How many of the twelve main Final Fantasy titles (I to XI plus X-2) do you own? - 93361
8) What did you think of the GameFAQs April Fool's Day prank? - 92684
9) How many days a week on average do you play video games? - 91864
10) Which Final Fantasy title is your all-time favorite? - 91116

*Both polls has a glitch that lead to an inflated vote total


Top 10 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) Should Current Events be split, and if so, how? - 220
2) What do you think about polls on web sites? - 838
3) THE BEST OF 1999: Neo-Geo Pocket - 1149
4) How often do you visit GameFAQs? - 2224
5) Ever played a first-person shooter online? - 2229
6) What kind of contest would you like to see for February? - 2260
7) Would you use a GameFAQs realtime chat room? - 2340
8) Which pro basketball game do you think is the best? - 2477
9) What do you think of the GameFAQs Reader Reviews? - 2663
10) Do you actually read the instruction booklet that comes with your games? - 2709


Top 10 Highest Individual Votes

1) Male - 74775
2) North America - 67183
3) Right-handed - 64969
4) I always answer honestly - 64967
5) No, I'm still not interested - 63521
6) No- You can't blame a game for real violence - 58657
7) No, and I never have - 56230
8) North America - 55511
9) On a full or twin sized bed - 55391
10) Yes, just one - 55279


Top 10 Lowest Individual Votes

1t) 2 - 7
1t) D - 7
1t) D- - 7
4t) Party/Card/Board - 8
4t) D+ - 8
6) C- - 10
7t) Success - 11
7t) 3 - 11
7t) 4 - 11
7t) Big SSX - 11


Top 10 Highest Individual Percentage

1) Male - 95.13%
2) Male - 94.52%
3) Male - 94.43%
4) I always answer honestly - 92.35%
5) I always answer honestly - 90.86%
6) Milhouse - 90.72%
7) No, I don't want one - 90.57%
8) No, I don't want one - 89.68%
9) No, I don't want one - 87.48%
10) Not a single one - 86.33%

(We should get Milhouse into a contest. 90.72% in a three-way poll is no joke! <_<)

Top 10 Lowest Individual Percentage

1) InfoSpace - 0.06%
2) Gamesforrent - 0.06%
3) 2 - 0.07%
4) Looksmart - 0.07%
5) Success - 0.07%
6) Govojo - 0.09%
7t) 3 - 0.11%
7t) 3 - 0.11%
9) NFL Quarterback Club 2002 - 0.11%
10t) D - 0.11%
10t) D - 0.11%
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/29/2006 7:57:06 PM | message detail
6) Milhouse - 90.72%

Ah, my favorite poll of all time. Mario/Cloud be damned!
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
Aprosenf | Posted 6/29/2006 8:07:45 PM | message detail
Weird, poll 2333 doesn't seem to have a title listed anywhere. Anyone remember exactly what it was? It was something along the lines of "What's your favorite fad?" or something.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 6/29/2006 8:09:52 PM | message detail
It actually was just a question mark.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/29/2006 9:06:32 PM | message detail
Man, we've been waiting for nearly two months now for this contest to start. Hard to believe that it's only 27 hours away.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Slowflake | Posted 6/29/2006 9:18:54 PM | message detail
TRUE OR FALSE: Halo winning the division is as far-fetched as the BOP makes it out to be.

Gotta go with false here. I don't think Halo will be winning, but 2 picks out of 120 just doesn't do justice to its potential.
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Everything is "Ridiculous! Nonsense! If you believe that, you're a fool! How can that be when..." You'd make a great PW witness. -Shake to Vlado
Karma Hunter | Posted 6/29/2006 9:20:14 PM | message detail
False, if I want my last minute switch to make any sense at all.
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/29/2006 9:20:27 PM | message detail
Personally, I think Halo has the 2nd best shot at winning the division, even though I have it losing to Kingdom Hearts.

Yes, I know that doesn't make any sense.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
transience | Posted 6/29/2006 9:22:04 PM | message detail
3) THE BEST OF 1999: Neo-Geo Pocket - 1149

this makes me want to see a BEST OF 2005: N-GAGE poll.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 6/29/2006 9:23:39 PM | message detail
It makes as much sense as Crono having the second-best shot at winning an identical bracket to SC2k5 this year, despite the fact most of us would have him lose to Samus.
Slowflake | Posted 6/29/2006 9:26:26 PM | message detail
Oh, and check out one of the more recent posts in the BOP topic for probably the most dumbassed comment ever made in a stat-related topic, and the guy getting clubbed over the head with an avalanche of numbers. Good for a chuckle.
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Everything is "Ridiculous! Nonsense! If you believe that, you're a fool! How can that be when..." You'd make a great PW witness. -Shake to Vlado
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/29/2006 9:27:51 PM | message detail
Ahh, the same stuff that Tequila Gundam was spouting off about a few topics ago. I noticed that.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Slowflake | Posted 6/29/2006 9:30:18 PM | message detail
I blame alt trolling. Nobody actually following those things could ever say that. Not with the BOP's track record.
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Everything is "Ridiculous! Nonsense! If you believe that, you're a fool! How can that be when..." You'd make a great PW witness. -Shake to Vlado
THEJackSparrow | Posted 6/29/2006 9:31:42 PM | message detail
Well, it's the same idea with people saying the extrapolated rankings are worthless, except now that stat topic regulars say the same thing now.

Odd that people said SC2K4 was too easy because of the stats. Now people say they're worthless.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Slowflake | Posted 6/29/2006 9:32:20 PM | message detail
Board 8 is the ultimate bandwagon board, that's why.
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Everything is "Ridiculous! Nonsense! If you believe that, you're a fool! How can that be when..." You'd make a great PW witness. -Shake to Vlado
Karma Hunter | Posted 6/29/2006 9:34:25 PM | message detail
This board still whores the stats like no other when it suits them. Do you think we'd have such a consensus on SSB > Sonic if it weren't for SpC2k4 and the Top Ten List?
MarioSuperstar | Posted 6/29/2006 9:34:49 PM | message detail
I just looked at some old Pokemon polls and.. even if they are old, I am starting to feel a bit woozy about Pokemon.
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"People who play RPGs are depressed gamers who like to sit alone in their dark rooms and play slow games" - Hiroshi Yamauchi
* Is Dranze *
THEJackSparrow | Posted 6/29/2006 9:35:18 PM | message detail
Yes, but using actual contest matches isn't the same as using the stats themselves!!!! We don't use those percentages!!!!
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Aprosenf | Posted 6/29/2006 9:37:31 PM | message detail
I updated my listing of all of the polls. It's much prettier now. No tabs, only spaces.

http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
Karma Hunter | Posted 6/29/2006 9:39:32 PM | message detail
Heh, you actually prodded me into beginning an actual response to that, before the brick of sarcasm finally found its target on my noggin.
greatone10 | Posted 6/29/2006 9:40:25 PM | message detail
TRUE OR FALSE: Halo winning the division is as far-fetched as the BOP makes it out to be.

Looking at the BOP, it makes just about every upset look farfetched this year. There are no matches in which the board is even close to being split on.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
"I set my ATM card's number to "0001" because I'm number one!" - Manfred von Karma
Slowflake | Posted 6/29/2006 9:41:34 PM | message detail
From Karma Hunter | Posted 6/30/2006 12:39:32 AM | #197
Heh, you actually prodded me into beginning an actual response to that, before the brick of sarcasm finally found its target on my noggin.

...who was that directed at?

Now, Pokémon is scary. Not lose-to-Star-Ocean scary (no offense meant to HM), but can you really trust a fanbase that hopelessly clings to outdated games?
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Everything is "Ridiculous! Nonsense! If you believe that, you're a fool! How can that be when..." You'd make a great PW witness. -Shake to Vlado
THEJackSparrow | Posted 6/29/2006 9:42:20 PM | message detail
It was directed at me.

Not lose-to-Star-Ocean scary

Don't be so sure of that.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow