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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 296

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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/28/2006 10:04:18 PM | message detail
I didn't even know about it until I read an article about it on the other fansite I used to frequent, and by then, the contest had already started.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/28/2006 10:06:20 PM | message detail
Ahh, I just checked the site, and I was hoping that article still existed. Alas, it does not. The guy who wrote it seemed to be expecting big things out of Kefka, from what I recall.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/28/2006 10:07:08 PM | message detail
As was I!
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*is Karma Hunter*
Slowflake | Posted 6/28/2006 10:07:51 PM | message detail
In 2003? Weren't we all? The only reason most of us had him lose as early as round 2 was because he was slated to face freaking Crono. Had he been put in a more favorable situation, he would've owned all our brackets.

Just like Magus, it seems.
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Everything is "Ridiculous! Nonsense! If you believe that, you're a fool! How can that be when..." You'd make a great PW witness. -Shake to Vlado
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/28/2006 10:08:34 PM | message detail
Well, I think he was considering Kefka > Crono though.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/28/2006 10:10:38 PM | message detail
I had Kefka to Round 3!


...shifting gears, if the Nintendo boost really was underway in 2k4, I'd be surprised. Crono demolishing Mario like that just made him look awful, and it's not like it helps that Mario only has a SFF match and JC Denton to judge him aside from that.

...oh, thanks for that, Ceej.
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*is Karma Hunter*
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/28/2006 10:11:47 PM | message detail
And yes, I'm aware of the whole mass "voter fatigue" theory on Mario v. Crono, which is why it's still a possibility...but that always came off as flimsy to me, to tell the truth.
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*is Karma Hunter*
Slowflake | Posted 6/28/2006 10:12:14 PM | message detail
Maybe not Mario, but Link can definitely say thanks to that boost for claiming his second championship. It's like some characters got it in 2004, others in 2005. And those who got it in 2004 didn't seem to change too much in 2005 (namely, Link and Samus).
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Everything is "Ridiculous! Nonsense! If you believe that, you're a fool! How can that be when..." You'd make a great PW witness. -Shake to Vlado
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/28/2006 10:12:22 PM | message detail
Mass voter fatigue? What?
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
Proud member of the Putty Patrol
therealmnm | Posted 6/28/2006 10:12:48 PM | message detail
Speaking of 2k3, let's not forget about Luigi giving Samus a match!
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/28/2006 10:13:26 PM | message detail
The idea that voters simply got fed up with the whole debacle of the first two Mario v. Crono's and enough of them voted Crono just so he could finally get a win. Thus making Mario look worse than he should.
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*is Karma Hunter*
Slowflake | Posted 6/28/2006 10:13:43 PM | message detail
And Yoshi doing well on Cloud! Oh, brother.
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Everything is "Ridiculous! Nonsense! If you believe that, you're a fool! How can that be when..." You'd make a great PW witness. -Shake to Vlado
MarioSuperstar | Posted 6/28/2006 10:14:00 PM | message detail
I suppose voter fatigue is the thought of Mario vs Crono being a tired match and people just.. voted Crono?
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"People who play RPGs are depressed gamers who like to sit alone in their dark rooms and play slow games" - Hiroshi Yamauchi
* Is Dranze *
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/28/2006 10:14:41 PM | message detail
The oddity in all this, laughably enough, is Ganondorf. He seemed to boost in 2k4 *and* in 2k5.
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*is Karma Hunter*
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/28/2006 10:15:16 PM | message detail
Hey, *I* didn't come up with the theory. Didn't I already say it came off as flimsy to me?
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*is Karma Hunter*
therealmnm | Posted 6/28/2006 10:15:28 PM | message detail
I always thought that Crono beating Mario in 2k4 was simply people on this site getting tired of Mario always edging out Crono in controversial matches. That was a dedicated effort on all fronts to get Crono the win that year.

In all reality, Mario should have been expected to bounce back the next year. I think I among many others took advantage of that matchup to shaft Mario. Samus > Mario was already there, but after that, people started talking up Sonic > Mario.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Slowflake | Posted 6/28/2006 10:16:10 PM | message detail
Indeed. 49% on Magus, 57% on Alucard and 54% on Auron just plain don't connect.
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Everything is "Ridiculous! Nonsense! If you believe that, you're a fool! How can that be when..." You'd make a great PW witness. -Shake to Vlado
therealmnm | Posted 6/28/2006 10:16:23 PM | message detail
I guess I'm the culprit then? Although I wouldn't call it "mass voter fatigue". More of a dedicated effort on Crono's part.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/28/2006 10:17:03 PM | message detail
So, do you guys think Mario beats Sonic in 2K6 worse than he beat Shadow in 2K3?
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
Proud member of the Putty Patrol
UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/28/2006 10:21:36 PM | message detail
Hilarious 2003 arguments/claims from memory:

-Luigi was a threat to take the North, over Samus and Link. After all, Mario is awesome and Luigi is so much more popular.
-Kefka was a major threat in his half of the division, over the likes of Mario and Crono.
-Yoshi > Cloud.
-Vercetti was a legit Final Four contender.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/28/2006 10:21:46 PM | message detail
It's a stronger Sonic that already has the benefit of being...well, SONIC, against a stronger Mario. Sonic is projected to get almost exactly as much as Shadow did back then, and by virtue of him ACTUALLY being Sonic I'd expect him to get more. So why then, am I afraid of him somehow getting on the bad side of some Ninty SFF...?

Sonic getting SFF'd and Shadow not just doesn't seem right, and yet it bugs me.

I also have other lingering doubts, like perhaps Sonic overperforming on Mega Man (don't ask me why...I just do), but overall I'd expect him to do better.
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*is Karma Hunter*
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/28/2006 10:23:07 PM | message detail
-Vercetti was a legit Final Four contender.

more liek to win the whole thing m i rite?
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*is Karma Hunter*
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 6/28/2006 10:27:39 PM | message detail
Isn't it funny how in 2004, we thought Tidus/Shadow was a match of two underseeded, powerful characters when it actually turned out to be a battle of mid-carders?

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"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." ~ Benjamin Franklin
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/28/2006 10:28:45 PM | message detail
Funny once you remember MM/Tidus!
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*is Karma Hunter*
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 6/28/2006 10:31:14 PM | message detail
I don't know, it just seems so weird looking back on that match that Tidus and Shadow were both proportionally overrated...
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"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." ~ Benjamin Franklin
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/28/2006 10:31:28 PM | message detail
And on another note, after reading those old stat topics I *finally* get why you guys were going so crazy over Mega Man and Samus. The first few times I stumbled into the stats topics I saw those zany MM > Link and Samus > Cloud posts made without jest, and just thinking to myself you guys were crazy.

And you were. Is it any surprise Mario beat Samus?
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*is Karma Hunter*
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/28/2006 10:32:20 PM | message detail
Those were probably both HM.
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
Proud member of the Putty Patrol
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/28/2006 10:32:38 PM | message detail
Ok, ok.

The first one was HM.
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
Proud member of the Putty Patrol
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/28/2006 10:33:40 PM | message detail
I was so close a perfect prediction on Mega Man/Tidus. Good times.

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"A legend is nothing but fiction. Someone tells it, someone else remembers, everybody passes it on."
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/28/2006 10:34:16 PM | message detail
XD

That was awesome, I'll admit.
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
Proud member of the Putty Patrol
therealmnm | Posted 6/28/2006 10:34:51 PM | message detail
Megamus Clinkeroth!
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/28/2006 10:37:18 PM | message detail
>>>>XD

I think it's time we spend 20 posts having fun with this.

Lui-cetti!
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
Proud member of the Putty Patrol
Master Moltar | Posted 6/28/2006 10:39:40 PM | message detail
Samus > Cloud, ha!

I was rootin' for Samus > Seph >.>

And I still say Shadow would have done better against Mega Man than that hack Tidus did.
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Moltar Status: Eagerly awaiting for the next Contest to begin.
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/28/2006 10:40:40 PM | message detail
Timagusdorf
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*is Karma Hunter*
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/28/2006 10:42:04 PM | message detail
Kefigan
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
Proud member of the Putty Patrol
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/28/2006 10:43:49 PM | message detail
And I still say Shadow would have done better against Mega Man than that hack Tidus did.

Sonic proxy 2.0?!

Interesting question...on how many characters can Shadow get proxy value on? Certainly not all (thanks Tidus). Just Mario? Maybe Luigi, Mega Man, Zero, Knuckles...?

If the match was held again, can Shadow replicate his performance (i.e. do what Sonic is more or less expected to do)? Can Shadow actually *beat* anyone stronger than him due to a proxy factor?
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*is Karma Hunter*
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/28/2006 10:47:34 PM | message detail
I think Mario would wipe the floor with Shadow in a rematch.
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
Proud member of the Putty Patrol
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/28/2006 10:48:28 PM | message detail
And I thought Mario would cream Yoshi if that favorite poll were to happen again BUT NO YOSHI HAD TO PSYCHE MY MIND AGAIN
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*is Karma Hunter*
Master Moltar | Posted 6/28/2006 10:52:36 PM | message detail
First you slam Ganondorf, then Shadow?

If Kirby is next, then I just might have to hunt you down and take you out for good!!

And no, Shadow wouldn't do as well as he did back in 2003. Still, if he were to return this year (which he better), I would think he would do better than his 2004 value suggests.
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Moltar Status: Eagerly awaiting for the next Contest to begin.
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/28/2006 10:53:25 PM | message detail
Hmm... I think Mario's performance was impressive enough. He made nearly an 8% jump in a poll with eight entrants. That's pretty strong stuff.
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
Proud member of the Putty Patrol
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/28/2006 10:54:15 PM | message detail
I know, but he still lost, and I wanted an excuse to say DAMN YOU YOSHI
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*is Karma Hunter*
greatone10 | Posted 6/28/2006 10:55:01 PM | message detail
I think the reason he wins those damn polls is because everyone likes to choose Yoshi in the various Party games.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
"I set my ATM card's number to "0001" because I'm number one!" - Manfred von Karma
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/28/2006 10:56:28 PM | message detail
The Party Game Factor?!?!
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*is Karma Hunter*
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/28/2006 10:57:00 PM | message detail
PGF FTW!

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"A legend is nothing but fiction. Someone tells it, someone else remembers, everybody passes it on."
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/28/2006 10:57:27 PM | message detail
More like, proof of how strong Mario Kart 64 is! Yoshi's the best in that game, other than maybe Wario.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Master Moltar | Posted 6/28/2006 10:58:18 PM | message detail
I think the reason he wins those damn polls is because everyone likes to choose Yoshi in the various Party games.

Damn straight! Yoshi > all
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Moltar Status: Eagerly awaiting for the next Contest to begin.
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/28/2006 11:00:39 PM | message detail
I'm a Waluigi player, myself.
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
Proud member of the Putty Patrol
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/28/2006 11:01:12 PM | message detail
Poor Waluigi.

More randomness: what are the chances of Wario getting into SC2k7 (i.e., the contest after SSBB's release)?

I'll go with 45%.
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*is Karma Hunter*
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/28/2006 11:03:31 PM | message detail
The same as Waluigi's, because the Wa-lu will also be a playable character and will be top-tier, to boot.
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
Proud member of the Putty Patrol
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/28/2006 11:05:00 PM | message detail
If Waluigi ends up as top tier, heads will roll.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden