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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 295

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cyko | Posted 6/25/2006 6:06:27 AM | message detail
Contest Guru = someone who posts in the Stats topics.

We don't have that many people posting the stats topic. >>

Not that many, but alot of lurkers.


pffftt.... then, half of that list must be lurkers.

oh, and what's up with all the Super Mario 64 hate in here? that game was an absolute masterpiece when it was released and is still a lot of fun today. to this day, i still think it's the best 3-D platformer and it resides in my Top 5 favorite games of all time.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 6/25/2006 6:47:31 AM | message detail
Super Mario 64 hasn't aged much to me, personally. But maybe I'm just being a fanboy.
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voltch | Posted 6/25/2006 6:58:57 AM | message detail
will MG make it to the final four?
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 6/25/2006 7:24:10 AM | message detail
No, Halo will beat it.
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Slowflake | Posted 6/25/2006 7:34:07 AM | message detail
From Mac Arrowny | Posted 6/25/2006 8:28:21 AM | #149
Meh, today's poll is not very interesting. I'd like to see how Wind Waker would compare, but alone it's pretty bleh.

Hopefully we'll see the original Metal Gear tomorrow. That could give us a clue on how much the pre-Solid games will help out (although we already have the Games Contest for that).


You know what I'd like to see in such a poll? A "I thought the series started with MGS" option. Just to see how many people would pick it.
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TheRye | Posted 6/25/2006 7:53:49 AM | message detail
lot of lurkers

Yeah I've read pretty much everything in the last five contest stats topics but have had only a few posts.

Anyways, when do the Gurus need to send in their brackets and to whom?
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yoshifan823 | Posted 6/25/2006 7:53:55 AM | message detail
At the risk of sounding like a lazy n00b, have there ever been any Zelda Vs. Mario matches?
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Applause Sign | Posted 6/25/2006 7:56:18 AM | message detail
I have a feeling I'm going to be upstaged with these writeups. I mean, I'm not saying they're short, but to compete with the thousand word writeup producing zealots? None even close to that yet. Metal Gear/Soul Calibur gave me a big mental block... I felt like I should write more about it than the typical 1v8 match, but I still didn't think Soul Calibur had any realistic chance of winning. What was I to do? I just skipped it for a while and went back to it.

I know I'll probably end up reading yours a lot more than everyone elses, sometimes I just don't feel like reading huge write-ups, and when there's something like 8 people doing it, I probably won't read every single one every single day. >_>

Also, N64 > Genesis > It doesn't matter. Seriously, I've never had more fun with a system than I did with The N64, and despite everyone always talking about how crappy of a library it had, I owned more games for my N64 than any other system ever. Genesis comes in at 2nd place.

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Ngamer64 | Posted 6/25/2006 8:18:04 AM | message detail
A Guru topic will come online just before brackets lock and be up for a couple days for you to post your bracket. There will be a link in this topic, but you'll probably see it anyways since it will be on the front page pretty much all the time.

And HM is right, these topics are more or less lurked by the whole board, which is exactly why it's no loss to have signups take place inside the topic.

Cool poll today. Remember from the post-Top Ten polls that 12.36% have never played Ocarina and 15.50% never touched LttP. So I'm very pleased to see 8.28% saying no to the Zelda series currently; this number being in line with what we saw last year signals to me that 'Nintendo Boost' numbers should still be in effect this Contest. If this number had risen into the 10-13% range, I might have considered buying into HM's "KH2 + AC + whatever else = massive Square influx!" theory.

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Dark115 | Posted 6/25/2006 8:34:51 AM | message detail
lot of lurkers

Yeah I've read pretty much everything in the last five contest stats topics but have had only a few posts.

Anyways, when do the Gurus need to send in their brackets and to whom?


I'm exactly the same way. I bet hardly anyone would regonize me when I post but I've been here since Summer 2003
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Big Bob | Posted 6/25/2006 8:37:14 AM | message detail
If I had my way, I'd probably go with the GBA as my favorite system. So many awesome games for it that I can take anywhere. All that was missing was SSBA.

And Banjo-Tooie > Every other platformer in this topic.
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/25/2006 8:41:26 AM | message detail
So I'm very pleased to see 8.28% saying no to the Zelda series currently; this number being in line with what we saw last year signals to me that 'Nintendo Boost' numbers should still be in effect this Contest. If this number had risen into the 10-13% range, I might have considered buying into HM's "KH2 + AC + whatever else = massive Square influx!" theory.

... I don't even know where to begin with something like that ...


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Applause Sign | Posted 6/25/2006 8:48:52 AM | message detail
Hey HM, think you could give me some sales numbers for Oblivion and Morrowind in comparison to Kotor?

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Applause Sign | Posted 6/25/2006 8:49:39 AM | message detail
... I don't even know where to begin with something like that ...

Agree'd
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Applause Sign | Posted 6/25/2006 9:06:47 AM | message detail
HM, don't act like you're anything other than my servant boy for finding sales numbers.

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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/25/2006 9:20:56 AM | message detail
I don't have exact numbers in front of me right now, but I believe Oblivion is at something like ~700,000 and KotOR is at ~1.4 million (American only for both).

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 6/25/2006 9:40:18 AM | message detail
Eh, I only really post a lot when the contest starts. I've been here since.. I don't know, Spring 2004? I only started posting in maybe Summer 2004.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/25/2006 11:52:17 AM | message detail
which is exactly why it's no loss to have signups take place inside the topic.

Other than having to scroll past the annoyingly long sign-up list while looking for other posts, especially when they first begin and there's like one full page of them and maybe a few stat posts.

If nearly the entire board is a lurker, I don't know why it's a loss to have its own topic either. I saw a few people wondering if there was even going to be a Guru Contest this year. Not everyone takes the time to read every topic but still might want to participate.

So I'm very pleased to see 8.28% saying no to the Zelda series currently; this number being in line with what we saw last year signals to me that 'Nintendo Boost' numbers should still be in effect this Contest. If this number had risen into the 10-13% range, I might have considered buying into HM's "KH2 + AC + whatever else = massive Square influx!" theory.

So you're saying that the new Square influx would have never played Zelda? What a ludicrous notion. It's the friggin' Legend of Zelda. Even Squareheads have played at least one, for the most part. I suppose when he does a Mario poll and less than 1% say they've never played one ever, you'll be saying the same thing. For what it's worth, even when the site was Square dominated, you'd still see somewhere around 15% say they've never played any Final Fantasy game during Favorite FFs polls.

Honestly, remember that GameFAQs isn't as young as we like to think. There are still a lot of people who were around during the SNES days (heck, you kinda have to have been or you're in danger of being an underage user anyway. Not all voters are users, I know, but most people do still remember that era) when Square RPGs and Zelda were on the same console.

In other words, reading wayyyyy too much into this. Bringing more Square fans onto the site does not mean decreasing the number of Nintendo fans. The two are NOT mutually exclusive. If anything, Final Fantasy and Zelda have humongous overlap.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/25/2006 3:37:02 PM | message detail
*still wishes he could have taken GTA over Metal Gear*

Sour grapes!
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Dunkeroo23 | Posted 6/25/2006 3:39:03 PM | message detail
where do I submit my guru contest bracket to
therealmnm | Posted 6/25/2006 3:40:43 PM | message detail
*still wishes he could have taken GTA over Metal Gear*

That would have been my contest baby, yo. You're already getting most of the spotlight for taking Mario Kart over Mega Man. Don't be greedy!
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
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yoblazer33 | Posted 6/25/2006 3:41:23 PM | message detail
Not quite yet, Dunkeroo. There will be a separate topic to submit brackets once we hit lockdown.
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yoblazer33 | Posted 6/25/2006 3:53:16 PM | message detail
I think you've been doing a much better job of carrying the Mario Kart flag than I have. I just decided to do something stupid and unexpected.
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Dunkeroo23 | Posted 6/25/2006 3:54:55 PM | message detail
hey any chance that Halo could defeat Metal Gear Solid? I think it could happen....Halo was pretty strong in the Spring 2k4 and that was before Halo 2
therealmnm | Posted 6/25/2006 4:09:22 PM | message detail
hey any chance that Halo could defeat Metal Gear Solid? I think it could happen....Halo was pretty strong in the Spring 2k4 and that was before Halo 2

The fanbases are about equal on this site. It's just a matter of what series people that aren't really big fans of either will side with. Metal Gear would probably take that portion of the vote with ease. Xbox hate may have died down on this site, but there is still a lot of Xbox indifference. With as high a percentage of PS2 owners overall on this site, Metal Gear would easily get the vote of people who are not really fans of either.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 6/25/2006 7:00:18 PM | message detail
I was talking to King Morgoth, and not that he told me to do it or anything, but I'm thinking of taking Kingdom Hearts out of that mess. Not really seeing too much support for it, but it's definitely plausible.

Kingdom Hearts II just came out, and, having completed it, it was an awesome game. Definitely better than the original with gameplay, perhaps a shade weaker with overall story, but in terms of living up to the hype, it really succeeded. Each character is done much better than the original; they work much better with each other, and there's few points in the game that made you cringe with gooiness as in the first. KH2 is still dominating the faqs, which doesn't say too much, but its recency, and successful recency, shouldn't be ignored.

Metal Gear is metal gear, after all, but just to disparage it, it hasn't done anything as a series in a while. Sure you have e3 hype and melee hype, but those both pale enormously in comparison to kingdom hearts II. Kh ranked higher than metal gear 2 in the games contest, but to counter that (as I just disappointingly checked) metal gear solid outranks kh, and its other two entries are not far behind on the list, and both are ahead of the metal gear from the spring. hrm. that's sort of an annoying wall to overlook. but I will anyway.

The other convincing bit of data for metal gear is the very obvious snake vs sora match from the past summer. I admit that's...crushing, but the only (halfway valid) thing I think of to quash that would be that people love Kingdom Hearts a lot more than they loved Sora from Kh. He was gutwrenchingly riddled with heart cliches in kingdom hearts; in the second he exhibits a much more likable personality. If they had a rematch over the summer...fall...I would expect sora to do much better.

so to sum it up recency + improvement over kh + sora not being unbearable + mgs doing nothing too noteworthy recently - ranking in list + xsts ranking from spring = kingdom hearts is a viable upset pick.
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outback | Posted 6/25/2006 7:02:28 PM | message detail
If you ask me, that's way too many factors to have to bank on.
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therealmnm | Posted 6/25/2006 7:08:45 PM | message detail
Metal Gear is metal gear, after all, but just to disparage it, it hasn't done anything as a series in a while. Sure you have e3 hype and melee hype, but those both pale enormously in comparison to kingdom hearts II.

Metal Gear Solid 3: Subsistence.
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yoblazer33 | Posted 6/25/2006 7:12:09 PM | message detail
I don't see why Kingdom Hearts should be treated like an overwhelming underdog. If we go by the (admittedly kind of warped thanks to Starcraft) Spring 2004 results, the original Kingdom Hearts can easily hold its own against any Metal Gear game. Of course, Metal Gear has more going for it when you bring whole series into play, but Kingdom Hearts has been the hottest series on this site since late March. KHII's recency may certainly play a factor. Honestly, I was briefly considering this upset for a brief time.

Had Snake not destroyed Sora last year, I'd be really considering it.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 6/25/2006 7:19:28 PM | message detail
I just realized I'm competing against HM and Leon in the Analysis Crew. Man, my write-ups are going to look absolutely pitiful!
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Adept of Aiur | Posted 6/25/2006 7:20:23 PM | message detail
It may interest you all to know that I have OFFICIALLY switched to Castlevania > Halo.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Adept of Aiur | Posted 6/25/2006 7:20:42 PM | message detail
And > Kingdom Hearts for that matter.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Adept of Aiur | Posted 6/25/2006 7:25:53 PM | message detail
And Mega Man > Mario Kart now.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
therealmnm | Posted 6/25/2006 7:26:48 PM | message detail
I just realized I'm competing against HM and Leon in the Analysis Crew. Man, my write-ups are going to look absolutely pitiful!

Well, we do need some balance. Can't have everyone throwing 1000 word write-ups at the stats topic. I know people won't be looking forward to reading all of that. I've been taking the middle ground so far. I've done 3 write-ups and they are averaging around 500-600 words. And it's mostly serving as introduction and what I think about each series as a whole. You'll be fine...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Adept of Aiur | Posted 6/25/2006 7:27:47 PM | message detail
I remeber when I had that ownageful guest write-up last year and actually got on the scoreboard.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/25/2006 7:37:09 PM | message detail
My longest write-up thus far is Pokemon/Star Ocean, and that's only a little over 600 words. Most of them are probably around 400 words. For me, it just seems very difficult to write over 1000 words for a match without straying far off the topic or bringing up every useless, poor argument one can think up.
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therealmnm | Posted 6/25/2006 7:43:32 PM | message detail
Yeah, at second glance, it is pretty much Pokemon-Star Ocean that topped 600 words. Everything else hovers around 400 so far. That still may be a lot, but seeing how I am giving thoughts about the series, I guess that's okay. Looking at past analysis crew write-ups and seeing most of them being a paragraph or less, I think we might be overdoing it...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
cyko | Posted 6/25/2006 8:54:51 PM | message detail
I think you've been doing a much better job of carrying the Mario Kart flag than I have. I just decided to do something stupid and unexpected.

HA!! i wave the Mario Kart flag much more confidently than either of you. =P

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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/25/2006 9:25:49 PM | message detail
Looking at past analysis crew write-ups and seeing most of them being a paragraph or less, I think we might be overdoing it...

But can one paragraph really be considered an analysis? Well, I suppose for something like the Legend of Zelda vs. Civilization, but even then, I tried to do some background information.

Either way, I DO have a few short write-ups. I purposely made GTA/Warcraft short because I was sick and tired of repeating the points of why this match shouldn't need debating and I didn't want to do it over a long write-up.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/25/2006 9:31:49 PM | message detail
Me: So, if someone were to say that Warcraft was in a contest poll on GameFAQs and urged people to vote, how would other players respond?

My brother (an avid WoW player): If someone really respected said it, people might vote, but no respected player would ever do that.

Me: What about just a normal player?

Him: "Shut the **** up, n00b."
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therealmnm | Posted 6/25/2006 9:31:54 PM | message detail
But can one paragraph really be considered an analysis? Well, I suppose for something like the Legend of Zelda vs. Civilization, but even then, I tried to do some background information.

Have you looked at the past analysis crew write-ups? Sure, there were some elaborated analyses, but most of the write-ups were about 1 to 2 paragraphs with the occasional 3. Of course, we're an entirely different animal... Heh heh...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/25/2006 9:33:08 PM | message detail
Yeah, I know, but I never liked the "No analysis needed here" write-ups, ya know. Then again, I enjoy writing, so this is fun.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
hero of time 43 | Posted 6/25/2006 9:39:23 PM | message detail
When do we get to read all these write ups you guys are talking about and where are they posted?
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yoblazer33 | Posted 6/25/2006 9:40:39 PM | message detail
Usually, they're posted one day before the match in question.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/25/2006 9:44:08 PM | message detail
I'm lazy with writeups, but generally launch one nuclear weapon per contest.

~*ST*~
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therealmnm | Posted 6/25/2006 9:44:17 PM | message detail
Then again, I enjoy writing, so this is fun.

Well that's not surprising English major!!! I'm on the other side of the spectrum...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 6/25/2006 9:52:12 PM | message detail
Yeah, I know, but I never liked the "No analysis needed here" write-ups, ya know. Then again, I enjoy writing, so this is fun.

Indeed, what's the point of even being on the analysis crew if you're going to skip matches? You might as well just drop out if you're only writing a sentence or two. The longer ones are nice to read, because they always have at least a few interesting points...and they can be especially hilarious in retrospect, when the match is completely the opposite of what was expected.

But anyway, back on topic...how 'bout that New Super Mario Bros.? Could it measure up to KH2 in a contest? Its combined "Got it" and "probably gonna get it soon" options beat out KH2's.
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Adept of Aiur | Posted 6/25/2006 9:53:30 PM | message detail
Well, it's Super Mario Bros. I'd probably take it over KH2 if the match was held this month, but if it was next year... probably not.
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therealmnm | Posted 6/25/2006 9:56:58 PM | message detail
Nah, I don't think I would take it over Kingdom Hearts 2. Sure people like it, but from what I've heard and what I've seen, it isn't the Mario game to end all Mario games. I've even heard a bunch of people saying it was pretty underwhelming. And it doesn't have the sales numbers of the other main Mario title to where everybody has played it. It's definitely beatable, Mario or not.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/25/2006 10:02:48 PM | message detail
Yep, taking KHII over NSMB wouldn't cost me any sleep at night. More than anything, this site has a history of not caring about handheld games when push come to shove.
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