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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 293

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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 6/17/2006 7:30:25 PM | message detail
In this stat based environment, I would expect many of you guys to go Halo over Kingdom Hearts.

Halo > KH in the Top 100.
Halo > KH in the X-Stats.
Lopen | Posted 6/17/2006 7:34:24 PM | message detail
Ironically, as a guy who doesn't use the stats particularly often, I'm going with Halo.

With three easy reasons. Halo did decently better against Starcraft a while back (that's technically X-Stats, but I don't consider it that). Halo hate is decreasing. Halo 2 is more significant than Kingdom Hearts 2 for the franchise.
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
Mastermind2k | Posted 6/17/2006 7:45:03 PM | message detail
I don't get this point at all. X-Stats has you people thinking like robots.

I don't follow the x-stats at all. Sonic the Hedgehog is the namesake of his series- he should be at least as well known as his series if not more so. That should put them about equal. It's not much of a stretch to say that Sonic the character could be stronger than the series.
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Nobody cares.
Applause Sign | Posted 6/17/2006 7:47:44 PM | message detail
Heh. I can't wait to see this match, not for the final result, but to see the CV fans claim victory in the first few hours when it lays a beatdown on Halo, then Halo comes back for the win and I'm laughing like a madman.

Don't forget, you have to call it in favor of CV for the turn around to occur!

Hurricane Katrina caused him to leave for awhile, IIRC. It's why I don't really mind if he acts like an ass.

Meh, just because he went through some rough **** doesn't make me want to tolerate him any less. It's not as though I wish anything happened to him with the hurricane, or anything bad in his personal life, but if he's going to act like an ass, I'm gonna call him out on it.

I have no idea why I waited so long to play RE4, though I despise all this Ashley crap. Escort missions need to ****ing die.

I agree that escort missions suck, but I never had her die. Not once. She seems to stick to your back pretty well, lets you know when someone has grabbed her, and in certain areas you can make her hide in containers. The only part where it was difficult to keep her alive was inside the church when she had to climb onto the higher level and turn the cranks while you stayed down low and sniped the plagas going after her.

It looks really weird in the Hyrule Division. Thought it was funny that he didn't pick Mega Man X, but he picked Mega Man > Mario Kart.

Before I started really getting into contests I never really looked at MMX as any sort of series worth anything. Probably because I've never played a single MMX game, my friends haven't, and IRL have never heard a single person talk about playing it. Probably why I picked Andross > Sigma in the villains contest too, despite what this topic said. Over time I've come to realize it definitely does have strength though, however I always thought MM was huge. Maybe he just thinks like I used to.



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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/17/2006 7:55:18 PM | message detail
Gamerankings does not concur. I need to go, so no time to deal with the rest of your argument.

That statement was more of a personal thing, really. But GameRankings does not matter in the slightest anyway.

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yoblazer33 | Posted 6/17/2006 8:17:53 PM | message detail
Suikoden will not be the Fedor Emelianenko of this contest.
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/17/2006 8:18:55 PM | message detail
What does that mean exactly?
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Ed Bellis | Posted 6/17/2006 8:19:30 PM | message detail
I asked this before but it got swallowed in posts of LOL GAMERANKINGS:

If the Top 100 list were made again today and Oblivion was on the drop-down list, where would you expect it to place?
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Tai | Posted 6/17/2006 8:20:31 PM | message detail
what y'all think about KH > Metal Gear???

I have this pick. :-)

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Applause Sign | Posted 6/17/2006 8:21:20 PM | message detail
Well you see, KHII has 89% on gamerankings, but Halo 2 has 93%. Unfortunately KH has 97%, and Halo has 91%. Obviously complicating things to extranneously degrees of difficulty and ignoring ed bellis. At this point we see that SotN scores a scorching 99%, and this ladies and gentlemen is why Star Ocean will beat Pokemon.

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Ed Bellis | Posted 6/17/2006 8:22:27 PM | message detail
Well you see, WANG WANG WANG EC > SOWL LOL WANG SPUNK

Really? Over SF2?
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This was Ed Bellis. Summer 2005 Fanfiction Project:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=28403845
Applause Sign | Posted 6/17/2006 8:23:08 PM | message detail
Really!

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Lopen | Posted 6/17/2006 8:23:25 PM | message detail
The recentness could help, but only about 20% said it was the best game of this year, so I doubt it'd be that high. High 80s or low 90s at best I'd say. But if I made an official pick I'd go with it not even being there.
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/17/2006 8:23:35 PM | message detail
...It didn't quite read like that to me at first, but now that I look at it again...

...Nope, I must have missed something.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
MnMZero | Posted 6/17/2006 8:28:38 PM | message detail
I've been stuck babysitting my 5 month old niece so I'm not exactly caught up in the conversation. Let me touch on one thing though:

I mean, I know there are people who like the original more (though they are rare), but how many do you find that only like one of them? They're too similar to have caused such a rift in the fanbase, the way that series like MGS and GTA have, even if they are relatively small series as well.

Okay, so you think that Super Smash Bros. won't be as strong as a series since one game eclipses the other in popularity, so it won't matter as a series. But for a series like Metal Gear Solid, there are people that are fans of the individual games, so the series as a whole is stronger because fans of all the games unite, right? So let's say that those same Metal Gear fans all liked the 3rd game in a way that transcends the others. Would that all of a sudden make the series weaker? It has the same amount of fans as it did through the separate games, but in this instance, the strength of the entire series could also be represented through one game (MGS3) since that game transcends the other ones. It's the same thing for SSBM. Just because the series can be represented that one game doesn't mean that it will be weaker in a series contest. It's just that the fanbase can be represented by that one game in the series. I hope this makes sense. :-/
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/17/2006 8:30:17 PM | message detail
I don't quite get what you're trying to say. MGS becomes weaker because people like Snake Eater in a different way than the rest?
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Applause Sign | Posted 6/17/2006 8:30:18 PM | message detail
High 80's low 90's? I'd expect it to crack the top 20. Elder Scrolls got a 3 seed, and without Oblivion we all know it would not even make the contest. I'm willing to bet it's pretty high up on people's lists who've played it. I've heard nothing but absolutely amazing things from players of Oblivion.

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 6/17/2006 8:30:29 PM | message detail
Maybe it will be interesting to see a contest with vote totals as low as 2002.

Har har


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Adept of Aiur | Posted 6/17/2006 8:31:23 PM | message detail


Okay, so you think that Super Smash Bros. won't be as strong as a series since one game eclipses the other in popularity, so it won't matter as a series. But for a series like Metal Gear Solid, there are people that are fans of the individual games, so the series as a whole is stronger because fans of all the games unite, right? So let's say that those same Metal Gear fans all liked the 3rd game in a way that transcends the others. Would that all of a sudden make the series weaker? It has the same amount of fans as it did through the separate games, but in this instance, the strength of the entire series could also be represented through one game (MGS3) since that game transcends the other ones. It's the same thing for SSBM. Just because the series can be represented that one game doesn't mean that it will be weaker in a series contest. It's just that the fanbase can be represented by that one game in the series. I hope this makes sense. :-/


Well, I'm assuming that when people vote for their favorite series in a match, they'll vote for the series they liked more games from.
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Applause Sign | Posted 6/17/2006 8:32:26 PM | message detail
Maybe 20 is pushing it, but I could still see it cracking it, I'd have no problem saying it definitely gets in the top 30 though.

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HaRRicH | Posted 6/17/2006 8:32:52 PM | message detail
I just got to thinkin' -- we got a lot of seven/eight-seeds screwed in this contest. Kirby, SC, DQ, and Diablo all stand no shot yet could do some damage elsewhere; even if you switch them with other seven/eight-seeds, you could make RE or KH face Kirby (for either), SC (for KH), DQ (for RE), or Diablo (for either) and make things more interesting. Also, for the most part, it looks like the division championships will all consist of one-seed versus two-seed with the one-seed winning. I know there's not official seeding in place, but, come on...we know what's up. Add to it what we already knew about missed potential in the contest (GTA, MMX, Metroid) and snubbed series that would either be strong (Chrono, FFT) or difficult to place (Star Fox), and we don't even have any shot of a game pulling a Starcraft or Diablo-character except for Warcraft, which definitely has a tougher route than Starcraft or Diablo-character ever had with less fans pre-existing on the site...

...man, this bracket did some things right (Mega Man/Mario Kart, KH's four-pack), but I just reminded myself how much better this could have been, and it sucks alot.
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Link versus Cloud | Posted 6/17/2006 8:41:12 PM | message detail
megaman>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>mario kart

megaman should be a #2 seed but its nominationsgot split due to X and megaman beig separate. Megaman could possibly beat all the serieses in this tourny save the big 4 (mario, zelda, ff, metal gear).
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Final Contest Score:171/216 Losses: Magus(x7), CJ, Ocelot, Alucard(x2), Dante(x2), Crono(x32)
MnMZero | Posted 6/17/2006 8:42:40 PM | message detail
I don't quite get what you're trying to say. MGS becomes weaker because people like Snake Eater in a different way than the rest?

I figured it wasn't clear. I was using Metal Gear as a theoretical example. I was saying, let's say that Metal Gear Solid 3 was to MGS/MGS2 what SSBM is to SSB. Would you think Metal Gear as a series would be any weaker in that instance?
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*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Zero in SC2k5
MnMZero | Posted 6/17/2006 8:47:28 PM | message detail
Well, I'm assuming that when people vote for their favorite series in a match, they'll vote for the series they liked more games from.

If that was the case, GTA, SSB, MG, Halo, KH, etc. would all be toast compared to series like Sonic, Mega Man, Zelda, Mario, and FF. I don't think it will work out that way. The bottom line is what series do you like better, regardless of the number of games you liked in each series. The number of games might matter for some people, but I think it's all about quality in the long run. I think a heavy favorite holds more weight than 3-4 games that somebody merely liked in comparison.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/17/2006 8:58:52 PM | message detail
I was saying, let's say that Metal Gear Solid 3 was to MGS/MGS2 what SSBM is to SSB. Would you think Metal Gear as a series would be any weaker in that instance?

Weaker? No, but not markedly stronger than MGS3 itself.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
transience | Posted 6/17/2006 10:05:03 PM | message detail
man, I'm glad that I was gone for the day so I missed that whole cookie cutter argument.

anyway..

The blue bomber is famous for blowing out weak competitors. I made the bold claim that X vs Suikoden would be the largest blowout in the tournament on the day of the bracket's release, and I still believe it.

I don't believe that you can really blow out an RPG series, even a cult one. Suikoden will do better than some people expect - I could see people expecting 80-85%, but I'd be amazed if it went above 75. I don't see the MMX series having the same ability to blow stuff out that Mega Man the character has. if I had to look for biggest blowout, I'd look to Mario-Madden.

I agree with Leon that both Smash Brothers titles are very likely to have heavy overlap. I think that a series where the games have separate fanbases (I'm thinking Chrono Trigger / Cross here), or a series where the fanbase fights over which is best while still liking them all (like MGS or GTA) is the way to go. SSB and SSBM have mostly the same fans. I think Halo and Halo 2 are the same way. this doesn't mean that they're weak, just that they're not going to be drawing support from several different places. it's going to essentially be SSBM vs. the entirety of the Sonic series.

and lastly, I bought SA2 Battle today, purely out of the argument that broke out last topic. I figure I should see what all the fuss is about since I've barely even heard of a game that some people would take over Super Mario World. also got Metroid Prime for 5 bucks! woo hoo.
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xyzzy
"I was scared of that match because I thought Magus was over-confiscated for in his match against Crono." -Tai
MnMZero | Posted 6/17/2006 10:14:56 PM | message detail
Weaker? No, but not markedly stronger than MGS3 itself.

Yeah, but that's my whole point. No matter if the weight was solely on MGS3 or spread out among the 3 games, the series would still have the same intrinsic strength in the end. So why does it matter for SSB? If SSB and SSBM were completely different games, and SSBM was only just as popular as SSB, would we even be having this conversation? It shouldn't matter that SSBM encompasses the series as a whole. So SSB relying basically on one game in the series certainly isn't a bad thing as the series is still popular. Whether spread out through both games are encompassed by one game, the series ends up being just as strong in the end. It doesn't really matter.
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MnMZero | Posted 6/17/2006 10:21:30 PM | message detail
*or, not are.

and lastly, I bought SA2 Battle today, purely out of the argument that broke out last topic. I figure I should see what all the fuss is about since I've barely even heard of a game that some people would take over Super Mario World.

Hey, we were talking about the popularity of the game. That's a standalone factor from whether the game is good or not. The game actually kicks ass. You might not get that sense off of one playthrough, as the game shines through its replay value. After you beat the normal story mode, go for all the level missions and all A ranks. Also, raising Chao was pretty addicting for me, although I don't know if you like that sort of thing...
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*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Zero in SC2k5
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/17/2006 10:26:28 PM | message detail
No matter if the weight was solely on MGS3 or spread out among the 3 games, the series would still have the same intrinsic strength in the end.

I really disagree with you here. You've got people that won't vote for MGS3 over a certain game but would vote for MGS1 and/or MGS2, and every other possible combination of the three. The likelihood of that being the case with SSB and SSBM is much, much smaller.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/17/2006 10:29:45 PM | message detail
In other words, I'm saying that, if MGS2 can net 43% on SSBM, then pairing it with MGS1 and MGS3 increases its strength and not just by a small bit either. If Vice City can get 46.5% on SSBM, then pairing it with GTAIII and San Andreas would only increase its strength, and I doubt it's only by a little bit. I don't see any reason why it would be.

In other words, SSB is at a disadvantage in both cases, and I really don't expect it to be the 4th strongest series when it's all said and done like some here do.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Chinballz | Posted 6/17/2006 10:34:09 PM | message detail
*reads upset responses*

*puts Metroid back over Pokemon*

I'm still keeping Mario Kart, though.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/17/2006 10:37:29 PM | message detail
I still think MGS or GTA will be #4 (my money's on MGS), though SSB would be close behind if it wasn't behind SFF.
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MnMZero | Posted 6/17/2006 10:49:51 PM | message detail
I really disagree with you here. You've got people that won't vote for MGS3 over a certain game but would vote for MGS1 and/or MGS2, and every other possible combination of the three. The likelihood of that being the case with SSB and SSBM is much, much smaller.

You still misunderstood me. I'm saying in that theoretical sense that the series won't need to use the combination of the fanbase, because that one game represents the combined popularity of the series. The series surely isn't hurt by having one game encompass the popularity of the series. The fanbase ends up being the same size regardless of if it is spread out over multiple games or encompassed by one game. So yeah, MGS ends up being stronger as a series than its individual games, but that's because it doesn't have one game that has the backing of the entire fanbase. SSB does.

Sure SSB becomes more vulnerable to series that had individual games give SSBM a run for its money (GTA, MGS), but we were talking about Sonic. I just don't put Sonic in the same category as GTA and MGS. You were putting it like SSB having one game encompass its popularity makes it vulnerable to Sonic. I don't buy it. Didn't you say yourself that you don't see Sonic as being particularly strong, you just think SSB is overrated because it is basically one game? That's what I disagree with.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/18/2006 12:34:06 AM | message detail
That one game is also a force to be reckoned with. Considering there are probably no more than eight games that could beat SSBM on this site in general (FF7, LoZ:OoT, CT, LoZ:LttP, SMB3, FF3/6, and your pick of two other games if you feel THAT frisky), you would have to have an army to beat SSBM by itself, and SSB doesn't hurt its cause either. No Sonic game could possibly break 45% on it and I bet no Sonic game would even break 40% on it. Three of Sonic's top four games were able to be connected to one another which is why S&K got so popular, so the wide-spread fanbase there goes down some, especially since Sonic to the Genesis is similar to Halo to the Xbox (while there were other good games on the system, you practically had to have each Sonic game). The other Sonic game in its top four can be found here:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1128

Unless you want to argue that SA2B got much more of its strength from the Dreamcast (enough to make up for missing so much of the 32/64-bit era, which featured SSB) and that so many people prefer S&K that much more to the other Sonic games, the only way you can truly justify Sonic > SSB is if you believe Sonic's iconic status will save it (one, lol Pac-Man, and two, SSB currently being much bigger than Sonic should negate most/all of that effect) or his massive number of games will save him (which, oddly enough, makes me wish Army Men would have made the list, heh). Otherwise, it's likely bias that makes that decision.
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jonthomson | Posted 6/18/2006 3:26:40 AM | message detail
Who else has Sonic > SSB in this topic?

Hi.

And lol @ GTA having three games people care about. I'm a fan of the series from the first two games.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
transience | Posted 6/18/2006 3:29:06 AM | message detail
tracking poll results:

Now that you've had time to digest E3, who do you think will win the next-gen console war?

TOTAL VOTES 79482

How old are the games that you usually play?

TOTAL VOTES 68619

Have you ever been a member of AOL?

TOTAL VOTES 49919


far as I know, the poll position changed in the middle of the second day.

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xyzzy
"I was scared of that match because I thought Magus was over-confiscated for in his match against Crono." -Tai
jonthomson | Posted 6/18/2006 5:26:45 AM | message detail
Less than a year 0.12% 14

Lol, noobs. 20+ years FTW.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
HaRRicH | Posted 6/18/2006 10:18:57 AM | message detail
I just noticed one other thing about that Gamecube GotY poll:

Animal Crossing - released on 9/15/02
Eternal Darkness - released on 6/23/02
Mario Party - released on 10/21/02
Metroid Prime - released on 11/17/02
Phantasy Star Online Episode 1 & 2 - released on 10/29/02
REmake - released on 4/30/02
Resident Evil 0 - released on 11/10/02
Sonic Adventure 2 Battle - released on 2/11/02
Star Fox Adventures - released on 9/22/02
Super Mario Sunshine - released on 8/25/02
Timesplitters 2 - released on 10/16/02
Tony Hawk Pro Skater 4 - released on 10/23/02
WWE Wrestlemania X8 - released on 6/9/02

Not only did MP get 45.66% while SA2B got 3.07%, but SAB2 had been out for over two months longer than any game on the list aanndd MP had been out the shortest amount of time. While you could argue that MP may have blitzed the poll like FFX did, it had way too much time to blitz it as much as FFX did, and SAB2 -- despite having nine months worth of sales and Shadow being popular likely because of this game -- did not capitalize on that at all. It's not like people forget about the games that come out that early for GotY polls, either; RE4 came out 1/11/05, and it still made the impact it had on the Top 100 List (#14) and with Leon's strength (25.2%) before it was ported to the PS2 (since RE4 was ported on 10/25/05, I can't use the GotY polls in this example, but nobody thinks RE4 would have lost it anyway).

For as many more copies SA2B sold on Gamecube over what it sold on the Dreamcast, it looks like it just might have been all for naught.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/18/2006 10:24:51 AM | message detail
*nine months worth of sales on MP
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 6/18/2006 11:39:15 AM | message detail
I'm curious: who are all of you planning on having the gurus nominate if you win the Guru Contest? I know Harrich has Aki Man and Leonhart has Seifer (or was it Laguna?), but I'm unsure about most of you.

Personally, I'm going with a Metroid. I think it could actually be quite strong, and it would be an interesting contender. So...how 'bout the rest of you?
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/18/2006 11:40:17 AM | message detail
I think the real story there is that Eternal Darkness got screwed outta its GOTY spot <_<
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/18/2006 11:41:08 AM | message detail
And if I won the Guru Contest....we'd be nominating Tron Bonne damnit.
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yoblazer33 | Posted 6/18/2006 11:44:00 AM | message detail
I'm curious: who are all of you planning on having the gurus nominate if you win the Guru Contest?

Waluigi (seriously).
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
Slowflake | Posted 6/18/2006 11:44:52 AM | message detail
Wow, it's as if virtually every IE user just stopped voting. I'm amazed.
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dethfdddddh | Posted 6/18/2006 11:45:06 AM | message detail
Grey Fox.
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Radix | Posted 6/18/2006 11:46:53 AM | message detail
I'm curious: who are all of you planning on having the gurus nominate if you win the Guru Contest?

Jack from Harvest Moon. Although that might change depending on how well HM does against KH
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yoblazer33 | Posted 6/18/2006 11:47:47 AM | message detail
People still using IE are probably FF fans. Zelda takes it.
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/18/2006 11:51:38 AM | message detail
Walugi would possibly be the only Mario character to get beaten by Gordon Freeman. Infact....I'd bank on that.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 6/18/2006 11:51:39 AM | message detail
Prince Marth! Maybe. I probably won't have to worry about it, though.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 6/18/2006 11:53:03 AM | message detail
If I wonthe guru contest, which won't be happening, I'd probably have us nominating a character that would have no chance of ever making it in without massive board rallying. Maybe xardas or the nameless hero from the gothic series. Maybe silk fox, death's hand, or the black whirlwind from jade empire. Possibly Kain Highwind.

I probably wouldn't pick a character that would be elevated above the level of fodder. >_>
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