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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 293

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/17/2006 2:10:57 PM | message detail
Unlike Suikoden II or Shadow Hearts: Covenant or Fire Emblem 7 or Xenogears, I have never heard anyone give gushing praise for Star Ocean 3. It's either "yeah, it's good, but it could've been a lot better" or "the plot twist was incredibly stupid" or "the first hour was good but then it became really boring".

Do you post here at all? Star Ocean 3 gets gushing praise from partystar, Sir Chris, Holy Excalibur and Phase all the time. You're also backwards; people whine about how the beginning sucks, then think the game gets better as it goes.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), NSMB, FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
Adept of Aiur | Posted 6/17/2006 2:11:21 PM | message detail
The combination of the two Capcom favorites polls and the top 100 list make me feel like it's RE's match.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/17/2006 2:11:24 PM | message detail
As I said, I think the Favorite Capcom Series Poll (where RE came in 2nd before RE4) seemed to seal the deal for a lot of people.

Then again, Yoshi winning the Favorite Mario Character poll seemed to seal the deal over Bowser for a lot of people, too, and we know how that turned out.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/17/2006 2:12:31 PM | message detail
Ryu doesn't beat Leon by much though. Leon may end up getting a boost from the PS2 released Resident Evil 4, too, which might give him the win over Ryu. Not much to comment on with the villains because, well, they're just really outclassed.

Resident Evil was weaker than Street Fighter II, but Resident Evil 2 is definitely the more popular game (features Leon, too!). I would probably take RE2 over SF2 in a match. RE4 is one of the top games in the contest, so it beats any Street Fighter game without trouble.

I don't think the match is completely obvious like some people say, but everything points to Resident Evil pulling that one out. RE4 was definitely a huge boost for that series, enough for me to think it'll beat Street Fighter in a match.

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"If you're asking for a date, forget it. Because I made it a point not to go out with women who shoot me in the head."
Adept of Aiur | Posted 6/17/2006 2:12:32 PM | message detail

Then again, Yoshi winning the Favorite Mario Character poll seemed to seal the deal over Bowser for a lot of people, too, and we know how that turned out.


It's a matter of discretion. There's probably more SFF in a poll of characters from one series than in a poll of games that span very different genres from one company.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/17/2006 2:13:32 PM | message detail
True enough, but you still can't predict how everyone who didn't vote for either SF or RE would vote. It's hard to say how that match turns out one-on-one.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/17/2006 2:13:36 PM | message detail
Like Mega Man and Sonic, Street Fighter is one of our industry's universal series. Everyone has played it. Almost everyone has some emotional attachment to it. RE4 seals the deal for me, but I wouldn't be shocked if Street Fighter really made a match of it.
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Adept of Aiur | Posted 6/17/2006 2:14:25 PM | message detail
True enough, but you still can't predict how everyone who didn't vote for either SF or RE would vote. It's hard to say how that match turns out one-on-one.

Of course. It's not really a very easy match. I mean, I am not second guessing my pick at all because of the top 100 list, but an argument could be made either way.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/17/2006 2:15:03 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/17/2006 2:17:22 PM | message detail
people whine about how the beginning sucks, then think the game gets better as it goes.

Bingo! It isn't until you get to Elicoor II that the game begins to really start getting good. Luckily, that's only about two hours or so (correction!) of playing. The beginning was interesting enough to get you hooked, but it just sucks compared to the rest of the game.

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"If you're asking for a date, forget it. Because I made it a point not to go out with women who shoot me in the head."
red sox 777 | Posted 6/17/2006 2:18:22 PM | message detail
You know, SFF means Same Fanbase Factor, so it should be able to apply to any match with shared fanbases, right? Well, all matches have shared fanbases to some extent, and among the more popular characters, most of the voters are shared. For example, take Link vs. Cloud.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1251

81.35% of voters have played Final Fantasy VII.

I couldn't find the poll for percentage of voters who have played Ocarina of Time, but I think it's pretty obvious that most voters here have played both FFVII and a Zelda game. There is more shared fanbase than unshared fanbase. So, yes, there could be significant "SFF" in Link v. Cloud. There does not need to be any connection between games or characters for them to share fanbases, if they have sufficiently large fanbases. Unless the split among the shared fanbase is equal to the split among the unshared fanbase, this will result in an "anomaly."

But I think it is linearity, here, and not SFF, that is the problem. The idea that there is a "non-anomaly" value that x would get on y is the problem. The fact is that any shared fanbase can produce SFF, and although this SFF usually will not throw the actual result too far off from the predicted, it ensures that a single-variable predictive system will always have "anomalies." If Snake beat Sora with 65% and the match were rerun, Snake would still win with that much (well, perhaps less now, thanks to KHII). This is not an anomaly. This is the reality- fanbases are shared to a massive degree on this site.
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/17/2006 2:19:06 PM | message detail
True enough, but you still can't predict how everyone who didn't vote for either SF or RE would vote. It's hard to say how that match turns out one-on-one.

Yeah. That match is pretty hard to make a decision on. I just couldn't come up with any situation where Street Fighter had a big advantage. It has many games on many different consoles, but the same applies to Resident Evil. A tough one either way though.

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"If you're asking for a date, forget it. Because I made it a point not to go out with women who shoot me in the head."
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/17/2006 2:22:06 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2185

Ocarina of Time ends up with 86.6%

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"If you're asking for a date, forget it. Because I made it a point not to go out with women who shoot me in the head."
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/17/2006 2:22:07 PM | message detail
It's an anomaly in the sense that Sora would not look as weak facing most other characters. Even if the same result happened facing Snake again, it's still an anomaly.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/17/2006 2:24:47 PM | message detail
Err, that should be 87.6%.

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"If you're asking for a date, forget it. Because I made it a point not to go out with women who shoot me in the head."
red sox 777 | Posted 6/17/2006 2:25:49 PM | message detail
What I mean is that there is potential for "SFF" in every match with a significant shared fanbase. So SFF is really the norm...
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/17/2006 2:26:54 PM | message detail
Yes, there is bound to be an overlap in the fanbase at least to SOME extent in every match. It just becomes of greater significance as you increase the odds that somebody has played both.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/17/2006 2:29:22 PM | message detail
Because Resident Evil has been the more popular Capcom series for years.

We should have a link to the Top 100 Games List on the first post here. I can't keep track of the thing.

kk

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), NSMB, FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/17/2006 2:31:03 PM | message detail
Because Resident Evil has been the more popular Capcom series for years.

I'm not sure how you can say that with absolute certainty.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/17/2006 2:33:20 PM | message detail
Pretty interesting Resident Evil polls ...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1179
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=883

The first was taken in 2003 and RE2 wins the poll, but in the second, which was taken in 2002, REmake beats RE2. Heh.

I'd like to see another with RE4 as an option sometime soon.

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"If you're asking for a date, forget it. Because I made it a point not to go out with women who shoot me in the head."
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/17/2006 2:35:15 PM | message detail
Poor Resident Evil Gaiden. Should've done so much better.

Interesting to note that the original and the remake combined outdo RE2.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Applause Sign | Posted 6/17/2006 2:36:36 PM | message detail
...So you're telling me that sharing the same console ISN'T a factor? Since when? You're basically telling me that people on this site who own a PS2 (the top console on this site, yo) wouldn't possibly own BOTH a Metal Gear Solid game AND a Kingdom Hearts game? Being console exclusives only emphasizes that point. Also, we have TWO possible examples of FFVII pulling an overperformance on MGS, and all they do is share a console.

And for the person who said "anomalies happen," what do you think SFF is? It's an anomaly. And they happen for a reason. It's not a fluke occurrence. Solid Snake would do it again in a rematch, though perhaps not to the same extreme due to KHII.


^5 IMHO, not much annoys me more than people complaining when we put SFF on a match that isn't Mario/Yoshi or something equally obvious. It's almost as if they don't understand the definition of SFF, or if they do, don't understand the english language.


A ^5 IMHO also goes to HM, I would quote him, but that would take at least 3 posts to do. >_>

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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/17/2006 2:37:48 PM | message detail
Resident Evil 2 came out for the GameCube less than a month before that poll was taken, I believe, too.

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"If you're asking for a date, forget it. Because I made it a point not to go out with women who shoot me in the head."
Applause Sign | Posted 6/17/2006 2:39:30 PM | message detail
Resident Evil Gaiden came out on the day of the poll.

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voltch | Posted 6/17/2006 2:40:42 PM | message detail
how much will resident evil have to rely on the fourth for it's strength?
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Applause Sign | Posted 6/17/2006 2:41:26 PM | message detail
Somewhat.

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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/17/2006 2:44:06 PM | message detail
I think it could still win without Resident Evil 4, myself. I would be picking Street Fighter to win, admittedly, but RE wouldn't be out of it. It would become a much more talked about match-up if RE did lack RE4 though.

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"If you're asking for a date, forget it. Because I made it a point not to go out with women who shoot me in the head."
Chinballz | Posted 6/17/2006 2:44:47 PM | message detail
For my "big" upsets, I'm going with Pokemon over Metroid and Mario Kart over Mega Man. I decided to overestimate Metroid, and bank on the fact that the Nintendo boost still exists and will put MK over MM. Also SSB over Sonic, if you consider that an upset.

I'm really thinking of putting Halo over Kingdom Hearts and Silent Hill over Fire Emblem as well. Thoughts on this?
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SquallidSnake | Posted 6/17/2006 2:46:43 PM | message detail
Also SSB over Sonic, if you consider that an upset.

Here? Not by a longshot. It'll probably be a casual upset if it happens.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
Applause Sign | Posted 6/17/2006 2:46:46 PM | message detail
Pokemon over Metroid

Ouch. 3 points, that's gotta hurt. >_>

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Master Moltar | Posted 6/17/2006 2:49:28 PM | message detail
I must be one of the few with no upsets (at least according to the BOP). Then again, I filled out my bracket before reading anything on the board, so it's pretty much how I felt it would all go.

Mario Kart/Mega Man is tempting, but I don't see myself changing anything.
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Moltar Status: Eagerly awaiting for the next Contest to begin.
Slowflake | Posted 6/17/2006 2:50:17 PM | message detail
Dang. Why do people think Pokémon is so damn popular? It is among those who play it, sure, but the rest would sooner be caught dead than vote for it.
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SquallidSnake | Posted 6/17/2006 2:52:53 PM | message detail
Pokemon is the Sailor Moon of video games. The people who have played it won't admit it and openly hate it, even if they privately like it, heh.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
Applause Sign | Posted 6/17/2006 2:54:22 PM | message detail
Dang. Why do people think Pokémon is so damn popular? It is among those who play it, sure, but the rest would sooner be caught dead than vote for it.

I honestly have no idea, I'm surprised it's such a favorite against Star Ocean. I mean, it's somewhat understandable, people might be chilly and they need to get burned, but then taking it over Metroid too? They're just asking for permanent damage.

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Slowflake | Posted 6/17/2006 2:54:29 PM | message detail
Hey, I like it and think there is no shame in saying it. Third generation online Pokémon battling may be the deepest and most beautiful game ever.
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Applause Sign | Posted 6/17/2006 2:55:23 PM | message detail
Pokemon is the Sailor Moon of video games. The people who have played it won't admit it and openly hate it, even if they privately like it, heh.

I love R/B/Y, never played a Pokemon game after that though, well aside from Coliseum and Snap, Coliseum sucked, and Snap was entertaining for a couple of hours, but then it was over.

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Slowflake | Posted 6/17/2006 2:55:35 PM | message detail
Star Ocean I can sort of understand. I'd pick Xenogears to own it with ease. But Metroid? Where's the frontal lobe when you need it?
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transience | Posted 6/17/2006 2:55:45 PM | message detail
I've never played a single Pokemon game. beat that!
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xyzzy
"I was scared of that match because I thought Magus was over-confiscated for in his match against Crono." -Tai
jonthomson | Posted 6/17/2006 2:55:46 PM | message detail
I'm rather surprised there isn't more SF/RE discussion.

Same here, it's the only match I've changed my mind about. I figure RE4 will tip the edge. That and I don't see SF as a series being much stronger than SF2, which lost.
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 6/17/2006 2:57:40 PM | message detail
must be one of the few with no upsets (at least according to the BOP). Then again, I filled out my bracket before reading anything on the board, so it's pretty much how I felt it would all go.

Mario Kart/Mega Man is tempting, but I don't see myself changing anything.


So you're playing for fun?

If you have no upset picks, you aren't playing to win. You are playing not to lose.
MnMZero | Posted 6/17/2006 2:58:25 PM | message detail
People always forget that SFF has two steps:

1. The two characters/games in question must have a shared fanbase.

2. Said fanbase consistently prefers one over the other in a manner that greatly skews results from what one would normally expect.

So taking that one example with Cloud/Link, sure by definition they have to share a fanbase, with their games being so widely popular. But the key to there being no SFF between them is that one isn't consistently favored over the other. It's the same kind of situation with Snake/Sora, except perhaps the match pic was a catalyst for whatever fanbase they share to favor Snake. Or maybe the results would end up being similar regardless. But as somebody said, the match was an anomaly since Snake certainly isn't as strong as Samus...
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transience | Posted 6/17/2006 2:58:26 PM | message detail
if you pick upsets just to deviate from the norm, you've already lost.
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xyzzy
"I was scared of that match because I thought Magus was over-confiscated for in his match against Crono." -Tai
Applause Sign | Posted 6/17/2006 2:59:17 PM | message detail
If you pick upsets to impress tranny and take him to bed with you, you've already won.

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SquallidSnake | Posted 6/17/2006 3:00:07 PM | message detail
Don't take an upset just for the sake of having an upset.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
Applause Sign | Posted 6/17/2006 3:00:36 PM | message detail
I'M IMPRESSING TRANNY.

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Slowflake | Posted 6/17/2006 3:01:36 PM | message detail
I know that. I get yelled at for making the most unoriginal brackets ever (heck, even now if I had a bracket the only upset I'd have would be Mario Kart), but when you start picking upsets for the sake of picking upsets, you have to pick the right ones, else you're doomed.
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 6/17/2006 3:02:51 PM | message detail
if you pick upsets just to deviate from the norm, you've already lost.

You pick upsets because you are confident that they are going to win. Deviating from the norm just comes with the upset pick. If you don't have any upset pick, you've already lost.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 6/17/2006 3:04:58 PM | message detail
I know that. I get yelled at for making the most unoriginal brackets ever (heck, even now if I had a bracket the only upset I'd have would be Mario Kart), but when you start picking upsets for the sake of picking upsets, you have to pick the right ones, else you're doomed.

Exactly. You need upset picks to win. That's bracketology 101. At some point, you are going to have to pick an upset.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/17/2006 3:05:08 PM | message detail
If you don't have any upset pick, you've already lost.

Except that a bunch of people only missed Master Hand > Kuja last spring, on top of thinking Diablo to the Final Four was obvious.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), NSMB, FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
Master Moltar | Posted 6/17/2006 3:08:36 PM | message detail
You pick upsets because you are confident that they are going to win.

The only upsets that I would have some confidence in are MK > MM and Sonic > SSB, and I already feel confident enough with my current picks.
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Moltar Status: Eagerly awaiting for the next Contest to begin.