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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 292

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trannyscience | Posted 6/16/2006 5:35:18 PM | message detail
I don't think it matters how much it sold worldwide.. isn't the PSP close to the DS in sales here? I'd pick a DS game over a PSP game in a heartbeat here. same with Nintendo and Sega.

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xyzzy
trannyscience | Posted 6/16/2006 5:37:00 PM | message detail
er, sold in the states. wrong word there.
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xyzzy
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/16/2006 5:37:18 PM | message detail
I specifically said "States," as to not include worldwide.

And you would take a DS game over what PSP game? Would you do that because there hasn't been any notable PSP game? Because that's why I would do it.

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Lopen | Posted 6/16/2006 5:44:21 PM | message detail
Sales aren't everything. Most other factors pointed towards the Super Nintendo being the more popular system. There was no successful Sega exclusive magazine to my knowledge. In most places you'd look, when a game was ported to both the SNES and Genesis, the SNES game was held in higher regard. You may think I'm overexaggerating the influence of magazines, but back then that was where it was at. There was no Internet or Gaming TV for this stuff.

The games for which system are generally more popular today? Genesis or Super Nintendo? How many Sega Genesis "hits" can you name, because I'm sure I could name at least 3x as many SNES games that were held in equal or better regard.

Take a poll of Sega Genesis vs Super Nintendo, Super Nintendo doubles it I bet.

How about this... a poll that says "DS vs PSP"? Which one do you take? I sure wouldn't take the PSP.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/16/2006 7:54:41 PM | message detail
Oh wait. Sonic Adventure 2 Battle was in that Gamecube GotY poll. So much for people holding it as one of the most popular Gamecube games. At least Super Mario Sunshine got some support. But yeah, Metroid Prime absolutely killed that poll. After seeing that, I definitely wouldn't take Sonic Adventure 2 Battle in a direct matchup with Metroid Prime

Hey guys! FFX > GTAIII > SSBM! The GotY poll seems obvious to me! Final Fantasy X killed everything in it! And SSBM didn't do well at all!

Also, Sonic 2 > Wind Waker! The Top 100 List says so!

By the way, Chrono Trigger would STILL beat Link to the Past if they had a rematch today. I guarantee it. Heck, I'd even go so far as to wager my account on it. I'm THAT confident that Chrono Trigger would still win, even if it was that close. I honestly don't think the "Nintendo shift" was as significant in respect to games.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
heroic tranny | Posted 6/16/2006 8:01:38 PM | message detail
there's a big difference between 15-20% and 3% though, especially for a game people are looking at being at 34-35% on FF7. I won't count it out, but it's pretty damning evidence.
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xyzzy
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/16/2006 8:02:51 PM | message detail
As I just mentioned, Game of the Year polls shouldn't be used to rule anything out.

Heck, that's what I remember cost people who took FFX > SSBM. That's what they were banking on.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
heroic tranny | Posted 6/16/2006 8:06:22 PM | message detail
that poll was taken when FF10 was less than a month old too. it's not surprising at all that it blitzed the competition. I think if you hold FFX vs. SSBM in 2002, FFX wins.
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xyzzy
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/16/2006 8:08:28 PM | message detail
I honestly think it still has a fighting chance today, but even the people who like to think that pictures can make a difference don't think the FFX/SSBM picture changed anything. I find that a bit odd.

Actually, I don't. I know why they say that.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
RPGuy96 | Posted 6/16/2006 8:09:55 PM | message detail
Being outscored by Animal Crossing, Eternal Darkness, Metroid Prime, Phantasy Star Online, Resident Evil, Resident Evil 0, Super Mario Sunshine, and TimeSplitters 2 is not the mark of a game that would beat Super Mario World.

I'd have no problem taking Symphony of the Night over any single Sonic game. I think Sonic the series beats Castlevania the series, which is more relevant to this contest, but tranny brought SotN > individual Sonic up and I agree with him 100%.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/16/2006 8:27:58 PM | message detail
Forgive me, but I'm not going to resond to each and every point because there are LLOOTTSS.


I can easily see [Sonic 2] getting upward to 30% on [FF7].

I don't have a particular idea of just how strong Sonic 2 is, but 30% feels over the top. I would even think putting S&K or SA2B that high would be a big stretch (albeit possible), so I simply disagree with you there. For as big of a rivalry as Sonic and Mario had, you would hope that Sonic's #1/2/3 game's fans would have its back against Mario's #2/3/4 game, especially with them being on separate consoles and all...but, instead, I suppose not since Sonic really should have gotten 43.81% on SMW instead of 29.43%.


Goldeneye doesn't beat Halo, not even close. I'm sure you want to move it up that high too.

Halo > Goldeneye. Definitely.


If I had things my way, it'd be PD > Halo > GE...but that's not able to work. However, you may be trusting too much that Halo is as strong as the stats show, thanks to Starcraft. It had 5,739 more votes than any other match in the contest, and there are no doubts that huge rallying and outside voters (I'll say due to hype of the match instead of to vote for one game or the other) occured to make that happen or even get near happening. What if Starcraft had 374 less votes than what it got? How would you feel about Halo's standing then?

Anyway, the point I was making is that Halo has a much more concentrated and fanatical base than C:SotN, which is certainly why Halo was able to make #9 and Halo 2 get wrote in as #85 in the Top 100 List yet is only a six-seed in the Series Contest...yet Goldeneye beat Halo with #7 and -- despite being higher on the list and MORE IMPORTANTLY Halo's base being much smaller -- you won't dare give it a chance against Halo (which, believe it or not, hardly any of us have a true clue about).


I'm not all seeing how or why you think that outside of the damn list, which is nothing to put any trust in.

I'm not taking the list literally on everything, ya know. I point out weird bull**** when I see it (KH/SC was so close yet KH got #16 and SC got #51, for example), but I also point out reasonable bull**** when I see it (if PD ranks almost as high as Sonic's only game and GE finishes at #7, there's a reasonable chance GE was SFF'd harder than Sonic 2, for example). I try to couple it with other things I've seen and make my opinions from there. Nobody will see me take Halo over FF3/6 or ToS > Halo 2, but I see no reason to ignore the most recent contest-related support we have outside of the GotY polls.


I think SotN in the 25 - 27% range in the extrapolated stats.

25% - GE ends up between FF (original) and Half-Life at 30.7%
27% - GE ends up between MP and MGS2 at 33.15%

I believe you were once a supporter that GE/MGS would be a real good match (though I now know you'd take GE > MGS2...for whatever reason), and I know for a fact you've talked about MGS easily being over MGS2. Having C:SotN at 25% puts GE just over unadjusted MGS, and putting C:SotN at 27% puts GE just over MGS2, which you have said would be trampled by MGS...

...no, wait, let's look at this another way. Don't tell me you would take the original FF over GE. Don're DARE tell me Half-Life would go toe-to-toe with GE unless you want to reason that Starcraft completely screwed up the top half of the bracket and make everything it touched look THAT much weaker than if Halo won in its first match instead. I would hope GE would fare better than MP and MGS2 as well...

...nope, hold on, another perspective: if C:SotN was at 25% and Sonic 2 was at 30%, that means Sonic 2 would get 48.86% on Goldeneye. I know you said C:SotN could be up to 27% and Sonic 2 would be upward of 30%, but you should also watch how bad that can make analyses like that look...
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/16/2006 8:28:27 PM | message detail
...oh, snap, I got one more point of view to share that goes back to the first one and that damned Top 100 List.

GE - #7
C:SotN - #15
MP - #29
HL - #31
MGS2 - #41
FF - #76

GE - #7
C:SotN - #15
Sonic 2 - #38
PD - #44

I just don't see what is so ridiculous about what I've been arguing with you about.


Yeah. Because Goldeneye is going to get slaughtered so much that it was really a top 10 game in the stats! And Metal Gear Solid suffered enough SFF to beat Final fantasy VI!

GE probably wouldn't be far off from it, and you've said that you'd think about a MGS/SSBM match, so don't talk like this is ape-****.


The best argument for more SFF is the fact that they're on the same system and were both popular games on a system lacking in any type of library. SMW and Sonic 2, while not on the same system, undoubtedly have a shared fanbase and were both very popular during that particular time.

The best argument for more SFF is the fact that they were rivals and were both popular games on different systems. Right.

Whether or not you think GE was SFF'd harder or not, how can you not think GE and LoZ:OoT shared more of a fanbase than SMW and Sonic 2?


I can't find much of a reason to ever bring up the character contests. Shadow is a very popular character who gets the bulk of his popularity from Sonic Adventure 2, which I think would likely be the strongest Sonic game.

Just looking at all the angles. That said, point taken about SA2B. I'd now say it's probably the #1 game for Sonic based off of that, though you still haven't made a believe out of me that it'd be above and beyond the rest.


expected Sonic 2 to come in around 27 - 28%. I'm not calling for it to equal Super Mario World or anything. S3&K I would probably put around 32 - 33% and Sonic Adventure 2 around 34 - 35%.

Thanks to therealmnm for covering this one already.


Didn't Metroid Prime win GotY? Put Sonic Adventure 2 Battle in that poll and I guarantee that it wouldn't win like Metroid Prime did.

Yes, and MP only won by 1,616 votes over GTA:VC.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1128

BURNSAUCE. Funny that MP is at 33.4% in the stats, too. Good find.


Hey guys! FFX > GTAIII > SSBM! The GotY poll seems obvious to me! Final Fantasy X killed everything in it! And SSBM didn't do well at all!

Tranny already covered the FFX-blitz point, and we've never seen GTA3 in action except for -- you guessed it -- the Top 100 List, where it ranked above GTA:VC.




I hope people can realize that, while I consider the Top 100 List probably more than anybody else here, that I'm looking for more than simply one game's rank against another game's rank every time I use it and ignore everything else there is.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/16/2006 8:32:26 PM | message detail
I like how you ignored how I mentioned Wind Waker's lackluster showing despite the fact that nobody thinks it would perform anywhere near the level of the competition it's ranked around.

The best argument for more SFF is the fact that they were rivals and were both popular games on different systems. Right.

Whether or not you think GE was SFF'd harder or not, how can you not think GE and LoZ:OoT shared more of a fanbase than SMW and Sonic 2?


Because Mario and Sonic were THE series back then. And I knew quite a few people who owned both a SNES and a Genesis.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
HaRRicH | Posted 6/16/2006 8:32:40 PM | message detail
Okay, HM, I think we should make a pact...

...no more long-ass responses on this matter any more, from either of us. I think we and everyone else will benefit greatly from it, heh.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/16/2006 8:36:00 PM | message detail
I didn't acknowledge it because LoZ:WW has several other LoZ's to compete with and is less highly thought of amongst its fans than Sonic 2 is to its.

LoZ:OoT and GE were the games back then as well for so many people, especially N64 owners. Considering it was a game contest and not a series contest, I would think that would hold a bit more weight.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/16/2006 8:38:50 PM | message detail
I didn't acknowledge it because LoZ:WW has several other LoZ's to compete with and is less highly thought of amongst its fans than Sonic 2 is to its.

Ahh, you mean there's a fanbase split, though fans of the series will still vote for it a good bit of the time, though not necessarily on a Top 10 List? Interesting idea there.

It's also interesting that you get 5 FF games in the top 20, but yet the Wind Waker has a problem with the fanbase split, despite only being the 4th game, and not even that far ahead of FF's 6th.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
HaRRicH | Posted 6/16/2006 8:48:51 PM | message detail
LoZ has two games in the top five, then there's the original LoZ and LoZ:WW and LoZ:MM were expected to be close (and were). Besides, we already know FF's winning the Series Contest BECAUSE it can pull five games in the top twenty.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/16/2006 8:50:29 PM | message detail
Also, the first part kind of lost me, but I think we agree that's one of the times the Top 100 List is simply going to be wrong.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 6/16/2006 8:50:49 PM | message detail
Except the fans didn't vote for Sonic 2 in the top 100 list or the games contest, and they didn't vote for SA2 in the GotY poll either. The only time they seem to actually vote for Sonic is Sonic the character. Which is pretty good news for this contest, because Sonic the series is probably a lot closer to Sonic the character than any of his games.

And the second point is another indicator of Final Fantasy over The Legend of Zelda, which isn't terribly surprising.
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LegendarySnake | Posted 6/16/2006 8:51:01 PM | message detail
But that still doesn't deal with the idea of Wind Waker still being very strong in spite of the list, where we concede that it suffers from the fanbase split.

And yet we seem to feel like Sonic 2...didn't?
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Lopen | Posted 6/16/2006 8:54:50 PM | message detail
Here's the thing, though.

Windwaker on the Zelda pecking order is easily the third... and it's possible it may be a toss up for third at that.

Sonic 2 is likely second, maybe even first on the pecking order. And also, how many Sonic games were on the drop down list? (Not rhetorical, I actually don't know... is there a list of what games were on that things somewhere?) Either way I'm sure it was less than Zelda.
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SquallidSnake | Posted 6/16/2006 8:55:30 PM | message detail
Sonic 2 was the only one.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 6/16/2006 8:57:20 PM | message detail
I'm fairly confident Sonic 2 was the only Sonic game on the drop down list, and I'm also fairly confident that the original Zelda, Link to the Past, Ocarina of Time, Majora's Mask, and Wind Waker were on it.
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Yesmar | Posted 6/16/2006 9:02:33 PM | message detail
Am I the only one who's poll is way down in the middle of the page now? That can't be good for voter turnout.
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Lopen | Posted 6/16/2006 9:02:41 PM | message detail
Where are you going with that, then, Leonhart? Where's the fanbase split? I think Sonic 2 probably did better than it would have normally because of it being the only one on the list. Most voters probably chose exclusively from the drop down list anyway.

Of course Wind Waker was hurt alot more than Sonic 2, for two reasons now. (lower on the pecking order and more competitors on list)
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TheKeyofDestiny | Posted 6/16/2006 9:04:50 PM | message detail
I think Sonic 2 probably did better than it would have normally because of it being the only one on the list. Most voters probably chose exclusively from the drop down list anyway.

Really? You think Sonic fans just "settled" for Sonic 2 because it was the only one on the list? I doubt it. This is a bit of hindsight bias, I think, because nobody thought that write-ins had no shot before the list was released (Didn't HaRRicH put Halo 2 on his top 10 list? At least he was considering it at one point).
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Lopen | Posted 6/16/2006 9:07:39 PM | message detail
Hell, I put Halo 2 on my top ten list. I originally didn't think people would "just settle", but the results suggested they did. It's not so much "hindsight bias" as much as "interpreting the data". Halo 2 is not that much weaker than Halo, in fact I say it could very well be stronger.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 6/16/2006 9:08:40 PM | message detail
Well, Halo at #9 (right?) and Halo 2 at #85 leads me to believe that most voters simply settled for what was there. If they didn't, S3 and S&K managed to get outvoted by the likes of Phantasy Star IV and Shining Force/II, which doesn't sound particularly impressive.
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TheKeyofDestiny | Posted 6/16/2006 9:09:22 PM | message detail
I don't necessarily think Sonic fans will just settle for a Sonic game that isn't their favorite just because it's the only Sonic game on the list. I think they'd be more likely not to put it down at all.
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TheKeyofDestiny | Posted 6/16/2006 9:10:08 PM | message detail
I think I should've been more clear with what I meant by "settled." My last post clarifies what I meant by that.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 6/16/2006 9:12:21 PM | message detail
Leaving a game out simply doesn't make sense to me, but then I wrote in half of my top 10 so I don't think I'm the average voter in this situation.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/16/2006 9:13:26 PM | message detail
I also wrote in a good part of my list, but I think if somebody was a Sonic fan and picked exclusively from the list, I don't think they'd put Sonic 2 down as a "substitute" for their favorite Sonic game just because it was the only one there.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/16/2006 9:13:27 PM | message detail
Leaving a game out simply doesn't make sense to me, but then I wrote in half of my top 10 so I don't think I'm the average voter in this situation.

Same here.

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Adept of Aiur | Posted 6/16/2006 9:16:21 PM | message detail
Again, the reason it's difficult to look at Sonic's top 100 entries is that it wasn't even possible to vote for what happens to be many people's favorite Sonic game.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/16/2006 9:17:48 PM | message detail
(Didn't HaRRicH put Halo 2 on his top 10 list? At least he was considering it at one point)

Nope, though I did consider it. I just didn't think write-ins were going to make a difference at all, especially mine except for Halo 2 (and it probably would have been bumped because of other write-ins).


Don't think I'm intentionally ignoring the other points you made Leon, but I'm about to go watch Crash and Firefox just froze on what I was typing...so, bah.
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Lopen | Posted 6/16/2006 9:17:58 PM | message detail
I think they would, though. Especially if it was one of the Genesis games. I even considering doing it myself for Halo, but I didn't (I wrote in Halo 2). A few people on this board even said it: "I just put things down from the list because I wanted to see the games I liked on the list, and write ins had no chance" (paraphrased)

In any case, this doesn't mean Sonic 2 was likely to be hurt by a split like you said it was, at best it was unaffected. Wind Waker had a helluva tougher time with competition.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/16/2006 9:19:11 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy games still had to deal with a LOT of competition but didn't fare that badly.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
RPGuy96 | Posted 6/16/2006 9:21:06 PM | message detail
Which is why Final Fantasy is the strongest series on this site.
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transience | Posted 6/16/2006 9:21:07 PM | message detail
I left mine out. I figured that games I liked (mostly cult games) had zero chance of getting a spot. I also figured that Halo would benefit from only having one entry, which led me to put it at #8 on my drop down list guess.

I didn't expect them to do that badly though. I'm not amazed that they did, but I figured that Halo 2 had zero chance of making the top 10.
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xyzzy
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/16/2006 9:22:03 PM | message detail
Which is why Final Fantasy is the strongest series on this site.

And Zelda is an easy 2nd, but Mario still had an easier time getting its 4th game ranked highly.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
RPGuy96 | Posted 6/16/2006 9:32:38 PM | message detail
Chalk it up to either four Mario games vs five Zelda games or simply an oddity of the List. It isn't perfect, after all, it just shouldn't be completely neglected.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/16/2006 9:35:00 PM | message detail
Also, for what it's worth, of those nine games, I believe LoZ:WW is the only one that never saw a re-release/port.
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Lopen | Posted 6/16/2006 9:47:06 PM | message detail
I don't know why I'm arguing about this. Despite what I said, I don't agree that Windwaker "suffers" from the other Zelda games being on there anyway. I seriously doubt most are gonna say... "well, I already have two Zeldas in my top 10... I can't have a third Zelda here, even though WW is my seventh favorite game!"

However I do think Sonic 2 benefits (that's why I was saying "WW "suffers" more... I should've said it benefits less") from less other Sonic games being on there, because like I said, I think people were just trying to get their game to represent. With WW you had four other prime time Zelda choices to get to represent before you had to "settle for WW" (ie you didn't ever settle for WW). Sonic 2, no competition.

Anyway, I'm done with that. This argument is silly.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/16/2006 9:48:28 PM | message detail
But the silly arguments are all we have left!
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Lopen | Posted 6/16/2006 9:51:56 PM | message detail
We haven't even had a debate as to why Sonic will lose to Devil May Cry yet! There's still plenty of non-silliness out there!

(but now's not the time for that... I shall pick my spot!)

(Actually that's the reason I'm pro Smash Brothers in this... that is what caused this isn't it? I've forgotten! "Sonic vs Smash Brothers"? The fantasy match?)
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MnMZero | Posted 6/16/2006 10:14:45 PM | message detail
About "The List" and Wind Waker's placement on it... It's not like the Zelda games were only competing with other Zelda games. As shown by OoT/Mario 64, there's also a huge overlap between the LoZ/Mario fanbases. So with the top Zelda games along with the top Mario games, among others, there simply wasn't any room for Wind Waker and Majora's Mask to be up there with the top Nintendo games. Not that it matters.

My whole thing with the list is that it could be valid, it's just that we don't know how many entries there were. Or at least I don't. If there were 30,000 or so entries, I think the list could be considered pretty valid, as that is a good chunk of the poll voting population. But what if the list was only filled out by 5,000 or 10,000 people? That leaves a lot of potential voters out. It also hurts games that are liked by a lot, but aren't considered Top 10 worthy, which is something I really think hurts a lot of games. Then there's the fact that there were only 120 or so games total on the list, so all the popular games are going to be on there. After a while, the list just doesn't hold as much weight.

Does anybody have any idea how many total entries there were for The List?
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 6/16/2006 11:41:48 PM | message detail
LoZ
MMX
Pokemon
Metroid

LoZ
Metroid

Loz

Metal Gear
Fire Emblem
Halo
Kingdom Hearts

Metal Gear
Kingdom Hearts

Kingdom Hearts

SMB
Warcraft
Sonic
SSB

Warcraft
SSB

Warcraft

FF
MM
SF
RE

FF
RE

FF

Final 4

LoZ
Kingdom Hearts
Warcraft
Final Fantasy

LoZ
Final Fantasy

Final Fantasy
HaRRicH | Posted 6/16/2006 11:42:03 PM | message detail
130, not counting the two write-ins.
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transience | Posted 6/16/2006 11:42:51 PM | message detail
no idea; I would guess that there were probably about as many entries as (legitimate) brackets for a normal contest though. maybe a little less.

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xyzzy
"I was scared of that match because I thought Magus was over-confiscated for in his match against Crono." -Tai
HaRRicH | Posted 6/16/2006 11:43:18 PM | message detail
^^^Search for "BOARD ODDS PROJECT" next time.
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Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007