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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 292

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XIII_rocks | Posted 6/14/2006 12:08:33 PM | message detail
Seeing my name to a Contest Stats topic will frazzle my brain.

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15
SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17
SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

Summer 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/32
SFF Adjusted Summer 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/33

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexstats.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/tre/Polls.html


!yawa tsoP
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Sign my petition! Topic ID: 22242738
Beef Jerky, Catgirls, DESU DESU DESU! O_o
longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/14/2006 12:10:03 PM | message detail
MOVIN ON UP
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The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
TheSonyCorp | Posted 6/14/2006 12:10:45 PM | message detail
...

I don't see my board. I'm sad now.
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SephirothG
Risen from Purgatory
XIII_rocks | Posted 6/14/2006 12:12:02 PM | message detail
I thought about it, G, but I cou;dn't find the address to put it in. Post the link in this topic so the next person can put it back in, maybe? It'll only be like a day anyway.
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Sign my petition! Topic ID: 22242738
Beef Jerky, Catgirls, DESU DESU DESU! O_o
XIII_rocks | Posted 6/14/2006 12:40:08 PM | message detail
This has to be the slowest stats topic...ever.
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Sign my petition! Topic ID: 22242738
Beef Jerky, Catgirls, DESU DESU DESU! O_o
UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/14/2006 12:45:40 PM | message detail
OMG WTF HOW DAERE YUO

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), NSMB, FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
Lopen | Posted 6/14/2006 12:46:26 PM | message detail
Good, people shouldn't be posting in this one until the other one fills up anyway.

Yes, I realize the ironing in this post is delicious !!
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
XIII_rocks | Posted 6/14/2006 12:46:39 PM | message detail
*is arrested*
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Sign my petition! Topic ID: 22242738
Beef Jerky, Catgirls, DESU DESU DESU! O_o
TheSonyCorp | Posted 6/14/2006 2:11:28 PM | message detail
Nomination Rally Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585012
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SephirothG
Risen from Purgatory
XIII_rocks | Posted 6/14/2006 4:24:33 PM | message detail
Cool. bump.
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Sign my petition! Topic ID: 22242738
Beef Jerky, Catgirls, DESU DESU DESU! O_o
plasmabeam | Posted 6/14/2006 4:25:15 PM | message detail
Majora's Mask > Wind Waker

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Chinese Democracy - April 2006 (Let's hope)
Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5) Eliminated from playoffs
Applause Sign | Posted 6/14/2006 6:53:28 PM | message detail
WHAT THE CRUNK WHY WOULD XIII POST THIS TOPIC HE HAS NO RIGHT.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/14/2006 7:37:06 PM | message detail
We don't need the Nomination Rally Board on the links page because it's only needed seasonally.

Besides, you don't see me asking for my Nomination Rally Tournament winners topic.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Yesmar | Posted 6/14/2006 8:22:44 PM | message detail
Here's a repost of what I said at the very end of the last topic in regard to Midna:

Since when did character design play such a huge role in character popularity?

Sure it plays some role, but if Midna does have a substantial role in TP, I doubt her character design would matter much. We've never seen any lesser Zelda characters in a contest before, so it's really hard to judge anyway.
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"What's wrong with boot blacking? I like it very much."
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/14/2006 8:23:29 PM | message detail
Midna should do decently just having the Zelda name behind her.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/14/2006 8:23:53 PM | message detail
Actually, I remember the days when we were arguing about whether Epona would break the fodder line.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
dragoontheguy | Posted 6/14/2006 8:29:30 PM | message detail
Epona is probably the weakest zelda character that could feasibly get into a contest. I'd almost want to see both epona and cait sith get into a contest just to see how badly a zelda character and an ff7 character can possibly do.
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/14/2006 8:30:06 PM | message detail
LeonhartForever
Posted 6/14/2006 10:37:06 PM
message detail
#013 We don't need the Nomination Rally Board on the links page because it's only needed seasonally.


Or that it's not needed period.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), NSMB, FE8, WC3: Frozen Throne
Ed Bellis | Posted 6/14/2006 8:30:17 PM | message detail
Hey now, I'd consider Epona > Tingle at least.
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This was Ed Bellis. Summer 2005 Fanfiction Project:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=28403845
Mac Arrowny | Posted 6/14/2006 8:30:24 PM | message detail
Since when did character design play such a huge role in character popularity?

Shadow (another character on the list of fairly strong characters from this generation) undoubtedly got many votes because of his insanely ****ing awesome pictures in the 2k3 contest.

And at this point, what other than character design can we judge Midna on? Her design certainly stands out, and is definitely worth commenting on.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/14/2006 8:30:37 PM | message detail
I don't mean the link. I mean the board itself.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
dragoontheguy | Posted 6/14/2006 8:30:46 PM | message detail
Just how important is midna in TP, or do we not know yet? Is she going to be kind of like navi, except considerably less annoying from what we know?
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
Mac Arrowny | Posted 6/14/2006 8:32:57 PM | message detail
Well, the best comparison I can think of is that she would be like Sheik, plot-wise. When in the Twilight Realm, she rides on Link's back and you use her to fight, IIRC.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/14/2006 8:33:18 PM | message detail
Midna should do decently just having the Zelda name behind her.

Possibly, but a character also has to be likable enough to amass a fanbase. I don't care how many million-sellers he's been in; Tingle ain't beating anyone.

Unless I'm forgetting a few people, here's a list of all the "new" characters to ever achieve some success in a contest setting:

Master Chief
Dante
Tommy Vercetti
Kratos

Midna doesn't seem like she'd belong in that group (to say the very least). This may seem like a zany, off-the-wall theory, but perhaps when it comes down to the more childish, cartoon-like characters, gamers have long since decided who they like and who they won't care about.
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/14/2006 8:34:41 PM | message detail
Hmm... I guess Shadow is new enough to be thrown in that list, but come on! He's a Sonic proxy! I could see Dark Link tearing the house down in a contest, and that's basically what Shadow is (only with more 'tude and his own game).
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/14/2006 8:35:17 PM | message detail
Possibly, but a character also has to be likable enough to amass a fanbase.

Well, I know that. I was under the assumption that she wouldn't completely suck like Navi or Tingle when I made the statement.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Kaxon | Posted 6/14/2006 8:36:11 PM | message detail
Whew, finally caught up with the stats topic.

<once-per-contest plug>
Most of you have already seen it, but for those that haven't, the Oracle Challenge is open for this contest:

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=28558310

Since people in the stats topic like to analyze the contests in detail, you all are pretty much the target audience for this contest (although a lot of other b8ers get in on the fun too). The Oracle was originally created by solarshadow, who also created the stats topic. So if you haven't tried it before, give it a shot, it's a lot of fun and it's the best way to measure your predictive skills against the rest of the board.
</plug>
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
Yesmar | Posted 6/14/2006 8:37:28 PM | message detail
Shadow (another character on the list of fairly strong characters from this generation) undoubtedly got many votes because of his insanely ****ing awesome pictures in the 2k3 contest.

In all fairness, Shadow is the star of the Dark portions of the Sonic games. I'm not saying that he doesn't get some popularity from his look, but most of it comes from his role in the game, and to partly contradict myself his role as a pseudo-Sonic.

I should take back saying that I don't think character design *can* make a difference, because in Shadow's case I see it more as he is being portrayed as "the badass Sonic," but in my opinion he gets much more of his popularity from the Sonic portion of that description than he does from the badass part.
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"What's wrong with boot blacking? I like it very much."
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/14/2006 8:40:03 PM | message detail
Just being a Sonic clone ALONE won't do it. Liquid Snake doesn't rival Solid Snake in popularity (though we were almost convinced in 2004, heh), nor would I expect Metal Sonic to be anything special.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Master Moltar | Posted 6/14/2006 8:42:29 PM | message detail
Sonic Adventure 2 was that good. I enjoyed Shadow's story and character...he was like the cooler version of Sonic IMO. I see him as more than just a simple Sonic clone.

He also managed to pass up Knux in my eyes.
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Moltar Status: Eagerly awaiting for the next Contest to begin.
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/14/2006 8:43:55 PM | message detail
If I were a betting man, I'd bet that Midna would suck. Actually, I'd bet that Zelda and Ganondorf would steal the show and toss Midna to the background like a chumpette.

A character like Midna just seems so different. Don't get me wrong; she fits well enough in the Zelda world, but not when compared to the very human-like Link, Zelda, and Ganondorf. I see Twilight Princess more as the game that will propel its established stars into the stratosphere, as opposed to the game that will give us a fourth contest-worthy Zelda character.

Of course, I point to my empty corner of evidence, but eh. Just tossing ideas up there.
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
Big Bob | Posted 6/14/2006 8:46:01 PM | message detail
Epona would kick the crap outta Cait Sith. People love Epona, and hate Cait Sith.
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"Nobody shoots anybody in the face unless you're a hit man or a video gamer." - Jack Thompson
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/14/2006 8:46:54 PM | message detail
I wasn't aware that people had ANY emotional attachment to Epona. It's just a horse.

Now Agro, on the other hand, THERE is a horse you can love, with a tragic story to boot.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Lucid Faia | Posted 6/14/2006 9:04:05 PM | message detail
Tag.

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
Elite Gamer (see quote).
longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/14/2006 9:09:45 PM | message detail
Aye, big tag.
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The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
therealmnm | Posted 6/14/2006 9:16:16 PM | message detail
Actually, I remember the days when we were arguing about whether Epona would break the fodder line.

I was completely serious when I started bringing up Epona. I even went as far as making a match picture for her, but my hard drive went bad on my laptop. Seriously though, Epona vs. Vyse. Tell me that Epona wouldn't take that matchup 60-40!
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/14/2006 9:17:36 PM | message detail
The thought of such a result makes me want to vomit. Regardless, I would expect Epona to be fodder, even if it is from Zelda.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/14/2006 9:18:05 PM | message detail
Also, Donkey Kong barely broke 63%, so no, Epona would not take it 60-40.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
therealmnm | Posted 6/14/2006 9:19:34 PM | message detail
Sonic Adventure 2 was that good. I enjoyed Shadow's story and character...he was like the cooler version of Sonic IMO. I see him as more than just a simple Sonic clone.

He also managed to pass up Knux in my eyes.


I'm ashamed. :(
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
therealmnm | Posted 6/14/2006 9:22:36 PM | message detail
Zelda fans do like Epona. I never thought of her as just a horse myself. She's not as awesome as Agro, but she has a bigger audience so... But seriously, with as rabid as the Ocarina of Time fanbase is, I'm sure Epona would hold her own against any decent fodder. Of course once you bring her up against characters a lot of people care about, she'd probably fold worse than Pac-Man. We never discuss it because she should never be in one of these things. I bet she would crush Kerrigan though!
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/14/2006 9:23:55 PM | message detail
Well, Kerrigan's about as weak as they get, so I'd take Epona there.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
therealmnm | Posted 6/14/2006 9:29:44 PM | message detail
Yeah, I was just saying Epona would crush fodder like Kerrigan like she was strong, but put her against characters that would crush Kerrigan in similar fashion and she would likely fold against them. Imagine a Goomba or Koopa Troopa in the character battle or something... They would rake in votes against someone obscure or plain fodder just for their sheer recognition. Let them go against a Kratos Aurion or someone that actually has a good amount of people that like them and they will fold.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Mac Arrowny | Posted 6/14/2006 9:39:27 PM | message detail
On the topic of Goombas and Koopa Troopas, I actually think that if there were a contest in the character called "Metroid", that was just a Metroid, it would actually be quite strong. Stronger than Ridley, certainly.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/14/2006 9:41:06 PM | message detail
...I really have no idea why people think that. Ridley actually broke the fodder line.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Slowflake | Posted 6/14/2006 9:41:32 PM | message detail
So, what'd be the strongest "generic character"? A Goomba? A moogle? The aforementioned metroid?
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Got a craving while you're watching training holos on your rest cycle? Try new PHAZONETS - a mouthful of mutation in every morsel!
RPGuy96 | Posted 6/14/2006 9:42:13 PM | message detail
Goomba vs Moogle should definitely be the SMB/FF picture.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/NintendoDesktop2.jpg
Ed Bellis | Posted 6/14/2006 9:42:24 PM | message detail
Probably a Moogle. Aren't they in every FF game in some capacity? I imagine they'd thus have a ton of strength to draw from.
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This was Ed Bellis. Summer 2005 Fanfiction Project:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=28403845
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/14/2006 9:42:51 PM | message detail
Chocobo, wark!
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Slowflake | Posted 6/14/2006 9:42:59 PM | message detail
I'm not sure if they're in FF10... but I'm just being anal here.

Hey, why not a chocobo?
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Got a craving while you're watching training holos on your rest cycle? Try new PHAZONETS - a mouthful of mutation in every morsel!
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/14/2006 9:43:27 PM | message detail
Aren't they in every FF game in some capacity? I imagine they'd thus have a ton of strength to draw from.

Hardly at all in the PS FFs though, except for FFIX.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden