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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 291

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Lopen | Posted 6/12/2006 7:19:01 PM | message detail
XD at expected Devil Divison SFF between Crono and Magus.

Aside from that, Lloyd Irving, Agent 47, Terra, Cecil, and Frog... they really aren't that bad.

Alright, that's a fairly large amount of bad points. Whatever. (I think I'm going to make one for this contest just so I can bust it out later, they are interesting to look at)
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
trannyscience | Posted 6/12/2006 7:19:56 PM | message detail
I fear the thought of Lopen's x-stats. they'll be crazy enough for this, but for a character battle? whoa.
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xyzzy
Lopen | Posted 6/12/2006 7:26:26 PM | message detail
I don't think they'd be as far off as you think, in all seriousness. But I'm going to start doing that, steal his gimmick. Me and HaRRicH can compare notes after the contests. (at least I wouldn't have any Devil Division SFF... yeah!)
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/12/2006 7:27:36 PM | message detail
FACT: Zelda will beat Metroid worse than LTTP beat Super Metroid.

FICTION: Final Fantasy would beat Metal Gear worse than FF7 beat MGS.

FICTION: Kingdom Hearts would beat Halo in a game contest.

FACT: if Star Ocean loses its first round match, it will place last in the stats thanks to double SFF. (Pokemon-Metroid, Metroid-Zelda)

FACT: Mario Kart would beat Metroid.

FACT: we will have our first perfect bracket in this contest.
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VideoboysaysCube | Posted 6/12/2006 7:28:24 PM | message detail
After giving it a lot of thought I believe these to be the top 3 most difficult matches to predict. Just thought I'd share...

1. Fire Emblem vs Silent Hill

I'm looking at the FE vs FFTA match and I'm thinking, did FFT fans also vote for FFTA for the sake of the name or was that game really that strong? I really have no idea how strong Silent Hill is though but...either way, I see this to be a close match. Also, SH just had a movie, not sure how much of a difference that will make. I can see either one winning this...

2. Halo vs Kingdom Hearts

Both games have received big sequels and currently KH2 is number one in the FAQs and probable will remain that way for a while. Putting it very roughly...SC=Halo=KH, so it's just a matter of which sequel had a bigger impact. Obviously Halo 2, but on this site...it's a bit harder to tell.

3. Super Mario Bros. vs Super Smash Bros.

It's old school mario vs new school mario. I don't know which is stronger. I'm thinking that the hype from SSBB will give Smash Bros. an edge but I'm not sure if that's enough considering I don't know the strength of SMB.
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trannyscience | Posted 6/12/2006 7:37:24 PM | message detail
some of you have SSB blinders on. SSBM would be lucky to beat Mario 3, let alone the entire Mario series.
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xyzzy
Janus5000 | Posted 6/12/2006 7:39:24 PM | message detail
But... SSBM has Link and Mario and Luigi! It'll SFF those platform games off the face of the internet!
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VideoboysaysCube | Posted 6/12/2006 7:48:33 PM | message detail
some of you have SSB blinders on. SSBM would be lucky to beat Mario 3, let alone the entire Mario series.

Just when I was feeling confident in my SSB pick...you had to go and say a thing like that...
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shadow8021 | Posted 6/12/2006 7:50:20 PM | message detail
FACT OR FICTION: Zelda will beat Metroid worse than LTTP beat Super Metroid.

Fiction. I don't think the SFF is half as cracked up as many people think it will be. The Metroid series has had MP2 and MPH, as well as MZM since that day, plus hype was riding high during that month, because of the new Zelda at E3, so it definitely won't be that bad. I think the highest that Zelda will go will be a little over a doubling, meaning 67-69%ish.

FACT OR FICTION: Final Fantasy would beat Metal Gear worse than FF7 beat MGS.

Fiction. Final Fantasy as a series > Final Fantasy as a game, plus the fact that Advent Children finally came out will earn new fans of the series, but Metal Gear has the strength in it to keep this match a smudge under 70%. We shouldn't be debating this, though, because it won't happen.

FACT OR FICTION: Kingdom Hearts would beat Halo in a game contest.

Fiction. Now would be the best time for Kingdom Hearts to, because of KH2, but there are more Xbox fans here than people think, plus Halo has more outside support from places other than GameFAQs.

FACT OR FICTION: if Star Ocean loses its first round match, it will place last in the stats thanks to double SFF. (Pokemon-Metroid, Metroid-Zelda)

Fact. Kirby will give it a run for it's money, though.

FACT OR FICTION: Mario Kart would beat Metroid.

Fiction. Mario Kart won't be as strong as people say it will be. Metroid has had stellar hits in the past two years, all of which are more acclaimed than recently-released Mario Kart games. Name recognition isn't the strongest thing in GameFAQs contests, either. Just look at the flops that Pac-Man and DK have experienced in past contests.

FACT OR FICTION: we will have our first perfect bracket in this contest.

Fact. This is the year it will happen.
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Series Contest Score: 0/0
Next Pick: The Legend of Zelda
trannyscience | Posted 6/12/2006 7:50:45 PM | message detail
Just when I was feeling confident in my SSB pick...you had to go and say a thing like that...

by all means, stick with it!
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xyzzy
Janus5000 | Posted 6/12/2006 7:53:30 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy as a series > Final Fantasy as a game

I would hope that the whole series wouldn't job to SMB3.
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trannyscience | Posted 6/12/2006 7:56:51 PM | message detail
just think - if everyone thinks the match is Mario 1 vs. FF1, Mario wins!!!!!!!

*jumps off cliff*
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xyzzy
Janus5000 | Posted 6/12/2006 7:58:57 PM | message detail
*plays SMB1 you lost a life music*
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/12/2006 7:59:30 PM | message detail
From heroic tranny Posted 6/12/2006 6:37:18 PM #081
Mega Man / Mario Kart went from 33-4 to 53-22.. 20-18 since half the stats topic started arguing in favour of Mario Kart. looks like we have some influence after all!

And in every contest, the stats topic finds a way to make itself look like a bunch of idiots, be it with arguing the wrong way on a match or having a huge fit of elitism when we're proven right. Vincent/Kerrigan is the biggest example of both of these.

Not saying MM/MK will be the same, by the way. Those arguments are actually valid and aren't driven by fanboy drivel like Kerrigan was.

~*ST*~
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/12/2006 8:00:25 PM | message detail
I would take SSBM over SMB3 currently, though I think the SMB series will SFF the SSB series here. However, if SMB beats the holy hell out of SSB, then I'll probably take back my upset.
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/12/2006 8:20:36 PM | message detail
"just think - if everyone thinks the match is Mario 1 vs. FF1, Mario wins!!!!!!!"

Actually, I tihnk FF1 just barely wins that match.
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/12/2006 8:21:26 PM | message detail
"Those arguments are actually valid and aren't driven by fanboy drivel like Kerrigan was."

Which is why is still get to rub it in people's faces when I'm right. :)
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/12/2006 8:31:40 PM | message detail
HaRRicH
Posted 6/12/2006 11:00:25 PM
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#115 I would take SSBM over SMB3 currently


LTTP and OOT are the only Nintendo games I'd trust against Mario 3.

~*ST*~
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Lopen | Posted 6/12/2006 8:46:13 PM | message detail
"just think - if everyone thinks the match is Mario 1 vs. FF1, Mario wins!!!!!!!"

Actually, I tihnk FF1 just barely wins that match.


Actually, I think FF1 wins that match with some breathing room. ~55-45 or more. SMB has the mad recognition advantage over... pretty much everyone, but I'm not thinking it'll be that strong.
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Ed Bellis | Posted 6/12/2006 8:51:10 PM | message detail
FACT OR FICTION: Zelda will beat Metroid worse than LTTP beat Super Metroid.

...fact. This one's gonna be bad.

FACT OR FICTION: Final Fantasy would beat Metal Gear worse than FF7 beat MGS.

I say fiction on this one, but only by a few percentage points.

FACT OR FICTION: Kingdom Hearts would beat Halo in a game contest.

...fiction. Toughie, though.

FACT OR FICTION: if Star Ocean loses its first round match, it will place last in the stats thanks to double SFF. (Pokemon-Metroid, Metroid-Zelda)

I don't think there will honestly be a lot of SFF in Poke/Metroid - they're both Nintendo franchises, sure, but I can't see them sharing too similar of a fanbase. Could be wrong, though. That being said, I highly expect this to be almost fact... if Madden didn't exist, that is. lol madden

FACT OR FICTION: Mario Kart would beat Metroid.

Fact. Mario Party has a shot at beating Metroid.

FACT OR FICTION: we will have our first perfect bracket in this contest.

Definite fiction.
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trannyscience | Posted 6/12/2006 8:51:23 PM | message detail
I'd take Mario.. and I'm a huge FF1 fan. I think FF1 won its two matches on name strength, but when it goes up against a game people know, it loses that advantage. I'd even consider Tetris over FF1.

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xyzzy
creativename | Posted 6/12/2006 8:55:41 PM | message detail
I'd even consider Tetris over FF1.

Not on this website.
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therealmnm | Posted 6/12/2006 8:58:30 PM | message detail
The Legend of Zelda tripled up Tetris, but you'd take Tetris over Final Fantasy???
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Lopen | Posted 6/12/2006 8:59:19 PM | message detail
I'd take Mario.. and I'm a huge FF1 fan. I think FF1 won its two matches on name strength, but when it goes up against a game people know, it loses that advantage. I'd even consider Tetris over FF1.

Funny, because that's the same way I feel about Super Mario Brothers, and Tetris to an even greater extent.

I think the whole idea of "only having name strength" is kinda silly as it relates to Super Mario Bros 3. I really don't think a game's voting base can have that mentality and still manage to get 40% on Super Mario Bros 3.

It should be noted that Tetris got ~25% on a weaker Legend of Zelda. Tetris wouldn't have a chance.
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Janus5000 | Posted 6/12/2006 9:02:27 PM | message detail
SMB1 seems like it's a lot more popular in its own right than FF1... while it's not of utmost relevance to polls, didn't it place ahead of SMW on the top 100 list?
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trannyscience | Posted 6/12/2006 9:07:11 PM | message detail
The Legend of Zelda tripled up Tetris, but you'd take Tetris over Final Fantasy???

well I wouldn't take it, but I do think it'd do a good deal better. I think Tetris is like the Pac-Man of games, something that would get killed by well-known games but would show a lot more strength against games that aren't as universally loved. I'd probably take Tetris over a few games that are considerably ahead of it in the stats.

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xyzzy
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/12/2006 9:08:28 PM | message detail
"games that aren't as universally loved."

You've torn the fabric of space with that one, man. FF not universally loved on GF? I'm not sure I believe it.
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therealmnm | Posted 6/12/2006 9:09:06 PM | message detail
But... it's Final Fantasy. The game does have fans, even though it's not as popular as others in its series. I'd at least expect a doubling...
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/12/2006 9:09:35 PM | message detail
Whoops, thought we were being on a topic and talking about series there. Carry on.
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Ed Bellis | Posted 6/12/2006 9:09:41 PM | message detail
I'm honestly surprised people aren't making a case for SFF in Zelda 1/Tetris - not because I honestly think it happened, but because the signs are there for other, more notable cases of SFF, notably the overlapping companies/systems/demographics. Give me Tetris over, say, Doom any day of the week.
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trannyscience | Posted 6/12/2006 9:12:03 PM | message detail
I'm honestly surprised people aren't making a case for SFF in Zelda 1/Tetris - not because I honestly think it happened, but because the signs are there for other, more notable cases of SFF, notably the overlapping companies/systems/demographics. Give me Tetris over, say, Doom any day of the week.

exactly. I was dancing around the SFF term, but that's basically what I think. I'd take it over, say... Contra, Mortal Kombat, maybe a couple others.
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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 6/12/2006 9:12:27 PM | message detail
FACT: Zelda will beat Metroid worse than LTTP beat Super Metroid.

No doubt in my mind. LoZ's #2 got an even 74% against Metroid's #1*, LoZ's #1 was released in a generation where there were no Metroid games seen on consoles, LoZ's #1 was packed with arguably LoZ's #3 which beat Metroid's #2*, the original LoZ easily outdid the original Metroid on the Top 100 List (and Game Contest stats, though Metroid was SFF'd hard by SMB3), and this poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=525

Metroid will be lucky to just be tripled.

*debatable


FACT: Final Fantasy would beat Metal Gear worse than FF7 beat MGS.

FFX is bigger than MGS2 or MGS3, FF3/6 is bigger than those two and likely MGS1, FF8 could go toe-to-toe with MGS2 or MGS3, and then there's all the other FF games against the original MG games.


FACT: Kingdom Hearts would beat Halo in a game contest.

It sucks to pick one this time.


FICTION: if Star Ocean loses its first round match, it will place last in the stats thanks to double SFF. (Pokemon-Metroid, Metroid-Zelda)

Madden's taking that honor. Though LoZ will crush Metroid and Metroid should beat Pokemon decently enough (though I dunno if SFF will even occur)...but, ya know, Madden.


FACT OR FICTION: Mario Kart would beat Metroid.

I'd feel good about it, too.


FACT: we will have our first perfect bracket in this contest.

It sucks, too, though here's to hoping it's me.
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Lopen | Posted 6/12/2006 9:16:38 PM | message detail
Thing is, I'd bet Tetris would get "SFFed" like that against anybody of note, meaning it doesn't really have any serious strength, but can blowout fodder with the best of em.

I'd take most games that are above Tetris over it, including Doom.
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Ed Bellis | Posted 6/12/2006 9:19:26 PM | message detail
But what SFF would possibly exist with Doom? Notable-games-that-everybody-and-their-mother-have-played-SFF?

...yeah, now I'm just being nitpicky. Still, you're right about Tetris probably losing to anybody of note. But it'd probably only get SFFed to related Nintendo-esque franchises; hell, Mega Man 2 could probably SFF it, although we'll probably never know. But Tetris/Doom would, at the very least, be an... odd match.
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Lopen | Posted 6/12/2006 9:26:42 PM | message detail
That's my point, there really isn't any SFF there. I think people are apathetic towards Tetris for the most part, and the only way it'll win is if it gets pitted against random crap.

Basically, unless its opponent simply can't draw enough votes, (because it isn't recognized well enough) it's not going to win.

Except against Pong... because Pong has like the same problem, only much worse.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/12/2006 9:32:24 PM | message detail
Question about the contest analyses, guys: I think last year had everybody introducing themselves before the matches took place. I'm not done with the analyses yet by any means, but I was just checking to see if we need to do anything like that this year or not.
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Ed Bellis | Posted 6/12/2006 9:34:41 PM | message detail
I don't know... I think Tetris is popular enough and closely associated enough with Tetris that it would have some semblance of strength. Tetris DS (although I don't have sales numbers or anything) might be proof of both of these things: it's got that whole retro Nintendo thing going for it and it's Tetris on a new game system. I gather it's rather popular (again, not sure on sales figures, though).

Pong, on the other hand, has the novelty of being Pong.
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transience | Posted 6/12/2006 9:38:24 PM | message detail
I'd take Tetris over, say... a Pokemon game, or Xenogears probably. I'd expect it to do better against games not everyone and their mother have played, such as MGS. but yeah, it still loses. I'm just saying that it's tough to get a good read on Tetris and that it's definitely stronger than the tripling it received against Zelda 1.
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Lopen | Posted 6/12/2006 9:41:15 PM | message detail
You could very well be right. But that's the way I'd always thought of Tetris strength, and the contest results supported my thoughts, so I'm pretty set in my thinking until we see Tetris again. For the record, I'd also take a few games that finished below Tetris over it. Resident Evil, Pokemon G/S/C, Metroid, maybe even Metal Gear.
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Ed Bellis | Posted 6/12/2006 9:43:29 PM | message detail
I definitely wouldn't take a Pokemon game (well, one of the more notable ones) over Tetris. I think, on the picking order of Nintendo franchises, Tetris ranks somewhere below Pokemon and probably slightly below, say, Star Fox. I'd take to beat a Kirby game, probably, but not Pokemon.
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/12/2006 9:43:47 PM | message detail
"but I was just checking to see if we need to do anything like that this year or not."

I doubt it's necessary Harrich, but it's a formality worth performing.
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Adept of Aiur | Posted 6/12/2006 9:44:17 PM | message detail
I definitely wouldn't take a Pokemon game (well, one of the more notable ones) over Tetris. I think, on the picking order of Nintendo franchises, Tetris ranks somewhere below Pokemon and probably slightly below, say, Star Fox. I'd take to beat a Kirby game, probably, but not Pokemon.

*blink*

What?
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Ed Bellis | Posted 6/12/2006 9:45:32 PM | message detail
...oh god.

I mean I'd take a Pokemon game to beat Tetris.

That came out wrong on, like, fifteen different levels.
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Janus5000 | Posted 6/12/2006 9:46:54 PM | message detail
That would definitely be an Ed Bellis of a pick if you'd pick Tetris over something you think is stronger than it.
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/12/2006 9:47:03 PM | message detail
"I mean I'd take a Pokemon game to beat Tetris."

Oh thank god. For a second there I thought we were going to have to vivisect you.
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Slowflake | Posted 6/12/2006 9:47:07 PM | message detail
Hmm, Tetris is a very interesting case. Most everyone has played it, but do people really like it to enough of an extent that they'd vote for it over a game that... well, I'm at a loss for words here. But I think Tetris would slaughter anything obscure or that's even simpler (such as Pong), and get a huge spanking by anything that's been played by a decent number of people.
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Ed Bellis | Posted 6/12/2006 9:48:12 PM | message detail
Oh thank god. For a second there I thought we were going to have to vivisect you.

Hey, tranny's the one who brought it up in the first place! I just butchered the argument!
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Slowflake | Posted 6/12/2006 9:52:00 PM | message detail
Heh.

Seriously now, as Ulti loves to say over and over again (but always as accurately), Pokémon may be the only case where hate votes actually matter. That makes Pokémon vs. anything that lacks serious power a nightmare, especially an oddball such as Tetris. I honestly don't know who I'd pick.
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/12/2006 9:52:27 PM | message detail
I'd even consider Tetris over FF1.

Whoa. I wouldn't take it above anything like Final Fantasy, not even give it any consideration.

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Slowflake | Posted 6/12/2006 9:54:05 PM | message detail
Edit post #146 to say, "anything that's been played by a decent number of people or belongs to a franchise that does".
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