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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 291

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Samurai7 | Posted 6/12/2006 7:54:03 AM | message detail
Are people taking metal gear over halo/KH as a lock?
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Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?
jonthomson | Posted 6/12/2006 8:32:47 AM | message detail
Metal Gear over Castlevania is a lock, yes.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
Karma Hunter | Posted 6/12/2006 8:37:58 AM | message detail
HAY GUYZ CONTEST TIME

I'm late to the party, so I'll just go ahead and say that Metal Gear isn't missing out on the Final Four. The only thing that *remotely* has a chance of taking it down is Halo, and it won't happen. Every MGS game > every Soul Calibur game, its second round match is a joke, and Snake v. Sora/Halo anti-votes + being drastically overrated by Starcraft should leave no doubt by the time this is over. So basically, it's going to expose Starcraft's run, and win its quarter-bracket on their weakness, not its strength.

Which is sad, because I wouldn't put MGS as the 4th strongest series. There's a lot of upset potential for it, but its wasted here. Those with crap like SC > MGS are just being unrealistic or have a bone to pick with it.
therealmnm | Posted 6/12/2006 8:59:03 AM | message detail
A match between Kingdom Hearts and Starcraft wouldn't exactly go the same way now as it did in 2k4...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Karma Hunter | Posted 6/12/2006 9:04:00 AM | message detail
Yes, KH2 (and potentially CoM to a slight degree) gives KH more power than it had in 2k4. Doesn't matter to me, seeing as how I have no respect for KH 2k4. It would have to get a HELL of a lot of support to push it into Metal Gear territory (which still may not be enough depending on what you think of Snake/Sora), and looking at KH2 this year gives me no idea of the kind.
Karma Hunter | Posted 6/12/2006 9:06:54 AM | message detail
And you've argued for numerous apparent drops as being the result of people jumping off the 'Cinderella Bandwagons'. What greater candidate for a Cinderella Bandwagon was Starcraft in 2k4?
voltch | Posted 6/12/2006 9:44:36 AM | message detail
man these topics are filling fast again.
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come
therealmnm | Posted 6/12/2006 9:48:56 AM | message detail
And you've argued for numerous apparent drops as being the result of people jumping off the 'Cinderella Bandwagons'. What greater candidate for a Cinderella Bandwagon was Starcraft in 2k4?

Oh, I totally agree. I just think KH is held in a completely different light now than it was in 2k4. Not only does it have the Square fanbase to draw potential votes from, but it's actually more liked now. Kingdom Hearts probably had numbers back in 2k4, but it definitely wasn't liked as much as it is now as a series.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Karma Hunter | Posted 6/12/2006 10:16:52 AM | message detail
Okay, I'm all caught up on the previous topics. Some of you guys are really stretching for upsets... <.<

Personally I don't consider much of anything debateable in this bracket...even the much heralded MM/MK hasn't given me much hassle (MM here, for those wondering). The most debateable match to me is probably Halo/Kingdom Hearts, and even then I'm relatively comfortable with my pick of KH.
Applause Sign | Posted 6/12/2006 10:26:31 AM | message detail
Don't even act like SO isn't taking Pokemon out!

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/12/2006 10:38:50 AM | message detail
Of course he isn't! Star Ocean is going to kick some ass and take some names.

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"So what I'm saying is, if we're gonna cooperate with someone, it might as well be that hot chick over there, know what I mean?"
Applause Sign | Posted 6/12/2006 10:39:33 AM | message detail
It's gonna take a whole damn list.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/12/2006 2:47:58 PM | message detail
Hell yeah mothatrucka.
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The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/12/2006 2:50:07 PM | message detail
SO can't beat itself, let alone Pokemon.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
greatone10 | Posted 6/12/2006 2:54:33 PM | message detail
All Star Ocean needs to do is perform the role of not Pokemon and bring its loyal fanbase, and it will win.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
"I set my ATM card's number to "0001" because I'm number one!" - Manfred von Karma
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/12/2006 2:57:07 PM | message detail
"Well, 24% is probably at least a little bit higher than what the actual %age is. You know, the whole drop down list thing."

Wrong, plenty of people knew FF7 was going to win no matter what, so even if their favorite game was FF7 they wouldn't put it #1. People are more likely to game the system than to be too lazy to find their favorite game and put something else there instead.

"who may not be old enough to appreciate SMB3 goodness,"

It's not like it didn't sell millions when it was re-released on GBA.

"But where else can you find a good upset pick?"

Why don't you start with "where can you find A good upset pick"? Frankly, if you're looking for somehting in Rd3 you're putting all your eggs in that basket and that's bad. The trick to winning a spring contest is to not give up the easy points.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/12/2006 2:58:18 PM | message detail
Of course, greatone just goes and reminds me of how much I WANT you all to miss on the easy ones. Feel free to, it won't hurt my feelings.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
Yesmar | Posted 6/12/2006 3:02:00 PM | message detail
I would just like to point out that in my opinion, OoT would do better against FFVII if the match was held right now, with the Nintendo boost and all.

I'm still picking FF to beat LoZ, though.
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"What's wrong with boot blacking? I like it very much."
Master Moltar | Posted 6/12/2006 3:03:42 PM | message detail
Of course, greatone just goes and reminds me of how much I WANT you all to miss on the easy ones. Feel free to, it won't hurt my feelings.

Indeed. The Pokemon underestimation in this topic is horrifying. I haven't seen any signs of SO having any strength, and most are depending on Pokemon being weaker than it.

I'm still saying Xenogears was underrated in 2004, and now that it's the whole Pokemon franchise instead of G/S/C, it should do better.

Now all we need to guarantee the win is Mewtwo or Charizard in the match pic. >.>
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Moltar Status: Eagerly awaiting for the next Contest to begin.
Uwe Boll | Posted 6/12/2006 3:03:56 PM | message detail
Why is it when people mention the word 'boost', I always think 'not happening.'

~Shake
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Hahaha, well, I'm like, in love with undreground hip hop right now.There's this group, Da Backwudz, they sampled the Oompa Loompa song. ~LexisTheGenius.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/12/2006 3:04:49 PM | message detail
I doubt OoT would gain even a single percent on FF7. The collector's edition had been out for about 5 months or so before the Spring contest, it had more reason to be at its peak then than now. If anything, I'd expect it to drop a couple %, especially with the related releases FF7 has recieved this year and will continue to recieve into next year.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
Tsunami70 | Posted 6/12/2006 3:13:09 PM | message detail
Question - Why do people keep bringing up "Sora vs. Snake" as solid proof that Metal Gear will beat Kingdom Hearts? Hasn't everyone figured out by now that characters don't always perform exactly the same as their games do?
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"You need a spanking!" - Mystere (Lunar 2)
^_~
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/12/2006 3:13:31 PM | message detail
"I'm still saying Xenogears was underrated in 2004, and now that it's the whole Pokemon franchise instead of G/S/C, it should do better."

Right. XG had to face FF7, it had to have taken a loss due to that. I have a feeling XG could probably have taken SMRPG on. Plus, of course, G/S/C is less popular than R/B/Y, Pokemon should be in even better shape than in 2k4.

Pokemon Gold sat next to MK in the top 100, and if my XG~SMRPG holds up then it also sits right next to MK in the SP2k4 results as well. Red? Pretty close to SMRPG in the top 100 (and probably could have held its own against SF2 as well).

There may be some hate, it may hold it back by 2-3% in any given match, but that's a stupid reason to bet against a series just because it had a weaker title from the series as an entry in a contest where it got hit by SFF.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
heroic tranny | Posted 6/12/2006 3:14:12 PM | message detail
BOP update:

1. GTA / Warcraft 49-26
2. Mega Man / Mario Kart 53-22
3. Metal Gear / Kingdom Hearts / Halo 56-18-1
4. Halo / Castlevania 59-16
5. FF / Zelda 58-15
6. FE/SH 61-14
7. KH / Halo / Castlevania 62-9-4

that last one shocks me.. such a huge consensus for KH. no surprise that the board loves KH and dislikes Halo.
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xyzzy
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/12/2006 3:16:42 PM | message detail
What about SF2 vs ES? It's not AS talked about, but I feel it's going to be one of the more dangerous matches.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
heroic tranny | Posted 6/12/2006 3:18:17 PM | message detail
it was like 71-4. I actually know like five people who are taking ES, so it's not set in stone yet.

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xyzzy
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/12/2006 3:19:43 PM | message detail
Well, Elder Scrolls does have what it takes. There's a big range there, and I'm of the opinion that the lion's share of it happens to be on the side where SF wins, but ES has all the makings if you discount its shortcommings.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/12/2006 3:29:44 PM | message detail
Zelda seems to have as much backing against FF as Castlevania does against Halo. OUCH
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*is Karma Hunter*
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/12/2006 3:35:39 PM | message detail
It has the same chances as pulling of the win. ZING!
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
Master Moltar | Posted 6/12/2006 3:36:44 PM | message detail
*shakes head seeing GTA/Warcraft is #1*

At least MM/MK shot up there though. That would be the one match I'd most likely to change before brackets close.

I've also grown more confident in MG > KH > Halo > Castlevania. Halo has a chance against KH, but I doubt it's going to win, and MG should be strong enough to take down KH (that and you can't ignore Snake vs. Sora, even though Games =/= Characters)

ES/SF doesn't bother me too much. ES could surprise and look stronger than we think, but SF looks to be safe.
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Moltar Status: Eagerly awaiting for the next Contest to begin.
heroic tranny | Posted 6/12/2006 3:37:18 PM | message detail
Mega Man / Mario Kart went from 33-4 to 53-22.. 20-18 since half the stats topic started arguing in favour of Mario Kart. looks like we have some influence after all!
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xyzzy
therealmnm | Posted 6/12/2006 3:39:02 PM | message detail
Dammit. I should learn to keep my mouth shut.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
heroic tranny | Posted 6/12/2006 3:55:20 PM | message detail
next year we should all get together to argue something stupid and then change our brackets back at the last second.

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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 6/12/2006 5:27:34 PM | message detail
Why ever change our brackets? Just say it's a lock. =P

*gets back to work on the analyses*
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Applause Sign | Posted 6/12/2006 5:37:48 PM | message detail
next year we should all get together to argue something stupid and then change our brackets back at the last second.

Madden FTW!

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Evil_REmade | Posted 6/12/2006 5:49:53 PM | message detail
Seems odd that so many people are having such a hard time with SSB/Sonic. SSB should be able to take it without too much trouble.
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[=[_] =] Nintendo DS
[+[_]·:·] See double while sober!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 6/12/2006 6:17:21 PM | message detail
SSB vs. Sonic is easily the toughest match in the bracket, IMO. Especially considering that GTA VC came within 5000 votes of SSBM, and that Sonic Adventure 2's sales quintupled since we saw it as the #3 Sonic game.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
trannyscience | Posted 6/12/2006 6:34:47 PM | message detail
slow day.. fact or fiction time!

FACT OR FICTION: Zelda will beat Metroid worse than LTTP beat Super Metroid.

FACT OR FICTION: Final Fantasy would beat Metal Gear worse than FF7 beat MGS.

FACT OR FICTION: Kingdom Hearts would beat Halo in a game contest.

FACT OR FICTION: if Star Ocean loses its first round match, it will place last in the stats thanks to double SFF. (Pokemon-Metroid, Metroid-Zelda)

FACT OR FICTION: Mario Kart would beat Metroid.

FACT OR FICTION: we will have our first perfect bracket in this contest.

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xyzzy
jonthomson | Posted 6/12/2006 6:37:52 PM | message detail
FACT OR FICTION: Zelda will beat Metroid worse than LTTP beat Super Metroid. - Fiction, but not by much. I'll puke if it does.

FACT OR FICTION: Final Fantasy would beat Metal Gear worse than FF7 beat MGS. - Fact, although again not by much.

FACT OR FICTION: Kingdom Hearts would beat Halo in a game contest. - Right now, yes. Six months from now, I doubt it.

FACT OR FICTION: if Star Ocean loses its first round match, it will place last in the stats thanks to double SFF. (Pokemon-Metroid, Metroid-Zelda) - Fact

FACT OR FICTION: Mario Kart would beat Metroid. - Fiction

FACT OR FICTION: we will have our first perfect bracket in this contest. - Fiction.

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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/12/2006 6:41:27 PM | message detail
Of course, greatone just goes and reminds me of how much I WANT you all to miss on the easy ones. Feel free to, it won't hurt my feelings.

Ditto. I love you all for choosing things like Pokemon to win. <3

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"So what I'm saying is, if we're gonna cooperate with someone, it might as well be that hot chick over there, know what I mean?"
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/12/2006 6:43:19 PM | message detail
FACT: Zelda will beat Metroid worse than LTTP beat Super Metroid.

FACT: Final Fantasy would beat Metal Gear worse than FF7 beat MGS.

FACT: Kingdom Hearts would beat Halo in a game contest.

FACT: if Star Ocean loses its first round match, it will place last in the stats thanks to double SFF. (Pokemon-Metroid, Metroid-Zelda)

FICTION: Mario Kart would beat Metroid.

FICTION: we will have our first perfect bracket in this contest.

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"So what I'm saying is, if we're gonna cooperate with someone, it might as well be that hot chick over there, know what I mean?"
greatone10 | Posted 6/12/2006 6:43:33 PM | message detail
FICTION: Zelda will beat Metroid worse than LTTP beat Super Metroid.

To be honest, I am very unsure of this one. But I think Metroid can avoid it.

FACT OR FICTION: Final Fantasy would beat Metal Gear worse than FF7 beat MGS.

Yes, there is a lot of diversity in the FF fanbase, while Metal Gear will not exactly gain a ton of fanbase that the Playstation games do not have by being under the same umbrella as the NES Metal Gear.

FACT OR FICTION: Kingdom Hearts would beat Halo in a game contest.

No. Kingdom Hearts II might though.

FACT: if Star Ocean loses its first round match, it will place last in the stats thanks to double SFF. (Pokemon-Metroid, Metroid-Zelda)

Even when Star Ocean beats Pokemon, the SFF from Metroid-Zelda alone could cause Pokemon to rank last.

FICTION: Mario Kart would beat Metroid.

Once again, it could happen. But Metroid would not lose as badly as Samus did to Mario.

FACT: we will have our first perfect bracket in this contest.

To be honest, I just can't see any match that isn't being debated at all going the other way. The only chance of this not happening is that the right sequence of upsets just happens to not be taken by anyone.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
"I set my ATM card's number to "0001" because I'm number one!" - Manfred von Karma
NewLib | Posted 6/12/2006 6:46:26 PM | message detail
I decided to go ahead with my pre-contest rankings. I did them for Summer 2005 and I remember I was horribly off. Hopefully, I can do better with these.

1. Final Fantasy
2. Legend of Zelda
3. Super Mario Bros
4. Super Smash Brothers
5. Metal Gear
6. Sonic
7. Metroid
8. Mario Kart
9. Mega Man
10. Halo
11. Mega Man X
12. Kingdom Hearts
13. Grand Theft Auto
14. Soul Calibur
15. Resident Evil
16. Devil May Cry
17. Kirby
18. Diablo
19. Elder Scrolls
20. Warcraft
21. Street Fighter
22. Castlevania
23. Dragon Quest
24. Fire Emblem
25. Pokemon
26. Silent Hill
27. Suikoden
28. Star Ocean
29. Civilization
30. Shadow Hearts
31. Madden
32. Harvest Moon
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Where am I?
NewLib | Posted 6/12/2006 6:47:54 PM | message detail
Chrono really could of added something to this tourny. I think its range could have been anywhere from fourth to barely beating Mega Man.
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Where am I?
Janus5000 | Posted 6/12/2006 6:50:02 PM | message detail
FICTION: Zelda will beat Metroid worse than LTTP beat Super Metroid.
--I'd consider that the absolute limit.
FICTION: Final Fantasy would beat Metal Gear worse than FF7 beat MGS.
--Meh.
FICTION: Kingdom Hearts would beat Halo in a game contest.
--Good match though.
FICTION: if Star Ocean loses its first round match, it will place last in the stats thanks to double SFF. (Pokemon-Metroid, Metroid-Zelda)
--Something like Harvest Moon or Shadow Hearts will be taking that (dis)honor.
FACT: Mario Kart would beat Metroid.
--Side series or not, Metroid's done badly with SFF matches...
FICTION: we will have our first perfect bracket in this contest.
--Soul Calibur and my own stupidity will do away with them all*.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
*...Actually, probably just me.
trannyscience | Posted 6/12/2006 6:50:24 PM | message detail
I'm gonna predict some results and make x-stats based on them in the next couple of days, just out of curiosity. the x-stats should be rather hilarious.
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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 6/12/2006 6:59:07 PM | message detail
I still have my x-stat predictions from last year, heh. I'd post my x-stat predictions for this year, but I shouldn't do that now that I'm on the crew and all...but, anyway, from top to bottom, look how wrong I was when I made this last summer -- exactly two days after the bracket was released. It is unadjusted stats, of course.....


1-Cloud 50.00
2-Link 48.50
3-Sephiroth 41.00
4-Samus 40.18
5-Crono 38.17
6-Mario 36.16
7-Mega Man 35.12
8-Sonic 34.42
9-Tifa 32.70
10-Zero 32.54
11-Solid Snake 32.14
12-Tidus 31.50
13-Frog 31.34
14-Bowser 31.19
15-Sora 31.18
16-Zelda 30.85
17-Ganondorf 30.54
18-Vivi 30.54
19-Ryu 30.25
20-Auron 30.23
21-Alucard 29.93
22-Master Chief 29.77
23-Kirby 28.35
24-Rikku 26.02
25-Yoshi 25.99
26-Chun-Li 25.58
27-Lloyd Irving 25.38
28-Leon Kennedy 25.29
29-Luigi 24.85
30-Kratos (GoW) 24.54
31-Yuna 24.43
32-Vercetti 24.43
33-Donkey Kong 24.41
34-KOS-MOS 24.35
35-Kefka 23.94
36-Cecil 23.81
37-Magus 23.67
38-Diablo 23.41
39-Vincent 23.20
40-Riku 23.19
41-Squall 22.96
42-Freeman 22.26
43-Dante 21.81
44-Big Boss 21.77
45-CJ 21.70
46-Kratos Aurion 21.54
47-Terra 20.94
48-Ness 20.83
49-Revolver 20.79
50-Zidane 20.61
51-Ryu Hayabusa 20.17
52-King of all Cosmos 19.53
53-Jin 19.28
54-Vyse 18.97
55-Sam Fisher 18.55
56-Knuckles 17.99
57-Pac-Man 17.05
58-Laharl 16.63
59-Wesker 16.24
60-Conker 16.16
61-Kerrigan 15.78
62-Geno 15.15
63-Yuri 13.66
64-CATS 11.91
65-Joanna Dark 10.12
66-Manny 9.00
67-Agent 47 7.48
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trannyscience | Posted 6/12/2006 7:07:45 PM | message detail
Frog looks just silly that high. of course, it was justifiable last year.

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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 6/12/2006 7:12:55 PM | message detail
I totally agree, especially when I supported MC being much stronger last year and Frog beats MC worse by those stats.
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trannyscience | Posted 6/12/2006 7:13:48 PM | message detail
11-Solid Snake 32.14
15-Sora 31.18

*does calculations*
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xyzzy