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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 290

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Samurai7 | Posted 6/11/2006 8:58:30 PM | message detail

Alright, I shoulda said MOST Xbox games get screwed over.

I agree with you, but I believe ES has enough similiarities that it MAY avoid the screwing. That said I still think SF is the favorite... I just think ES isn't getting the credit it should deserve.
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Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

therealmnm | Posted 6/11/2006 8:58:46 PM | message detail

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2299

That's from a dedicated Xbox 360 fanbase starving for a good game. That still says nothing of that fanbase being large enough to match the general popularity of Street Fighter.

26 Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic 27.71%
30 Street Fighter II 24.08%

All this arguing you are doing and KOTOR isn't even that far ahead of Street Fighter II. Based on that, Street Fighter II still could win the match in a direct matchup. Elder Scrolls is no KOTOR. If anything, that data makes me feel better about Street Fighter.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC

Samurai7 | Posted 6/11/2006 9:00:34 PM | message detail

That's from a dedicated Xbox 360 fanbase starving for a good game. That still says nothing of that fanbase being large enough to match the general popularity of Street Fighter.

Wasn't someone making the arguement that KotOR only did so well because its fan base was starved for a good game?
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Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

Adept of Aiur | Posted 6/11/2006 9:03:23 PM | message detail

Wasn't someone making the arguement that KotOR only did so well because its fan base was starved for a good game?

That was me. But KOTOR had a much longer time to garner popularity than Oblivion has also. And honestly... it's Street Fighter. Yes, that bit all of you in the ass in 2004 (although I had SMRPG winning and I had never visited this board before), but TES doesn't have anything resembling what SMRPG has. And the comparison between TES and KOTOR is, quite honestly, a reach. They're technically in the same genre, but in practice, they're quite different.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

therealmnm | Posted 6/11/2006 9:03:55 PM | message detail

Huh? That wasn't me... KOTOR came out in 2k3. The Xbox was already doing fairly well by that time. And KOTOR was a popularity poll. That Oblivion poll was asking which game are you anticipating. Of course 360 fans are going to anticipate one of the first big releases on the system... And Oblivion didn't do that well in that poll.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC

Samurai7 | Posted 6/11/2006 9:05:53 PM | message detail

Huh? That wasn't me... KOTOR came out in 2k3. The Xbox was already doing fairly well by that time. And KOTOR was a popularity poll. That Oblivion poll was asking which game are you anticipating. Of course 360 fans are going to anticipate one of the first big releases on the system... And Oblivion didn't do that well in that poll.

Considering its competition was KHII I think it did well enough.

And you guys act as no one bought/played/liked Morrowind.
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Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

Samurai7 | Posted 6/11/2006 9:07:17 PM | message detail

All this arguing you are doing and KOTOR isn't even that far ahead of Street Fighter II. Based on that, Street Fighter II still could win the match in a direct matchup. Elder Scrolls is no KOTOR. If anything, that data makes me feel better about Street Fighter.

Thats a big enough difference to make the predicted % worse than SF got on Mario RPG.
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Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/11/2006 9:08:06 PM | message detail

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/11/2006 9:09:26 PM | message detail

And you guys act as no one bought/played/liked Morrowind.

Similarly, there are other games besides Street Fighter II that people have played and bought and liked.

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"So what I'm saying is, if we're gonna cooperate with someone, it might as well be that hot chick over there, know what I mean?"

Samurai7 | Posted 6/11/2006 9:09:37 PM | message detail

This just leads me to one thing. How the hell can one draw a logical conclusion that Resident Evil is gonna beat Street Fighter, no questions asked though? The only argument I keep hearing is "RE4, GOTY of 05 lolz" and I wonder....is RE4 really enough, or are we all kidding ourselves? You can go back to the whole "Street Fighter hasn't had an important release" in years thing, but neither has Chrono Trigger, and Crono has beaten Mario once...not to mention it did extremely well in the Spring 04 Contest.

I theorize RPGs age differently than other games. My favorite rpgs never age because I get attached to characters and story. My other favorites in genres shift on more of a whim each time I play something new.
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Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/11/2006 9:11:18 PM | message detail

Ahh, but therein lies the problem. Which genre is more popular and successful...fighting...or survival horror?
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The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa

Samurai7 | Posted 6/11/2006 9:11:21 PM | message detail

Similarly, there are other games besides Street Fighter II that people have played and bought and liked.

Granted, but the arguement against Oblivion is that it hasn't been accessible and thus ES hasn't be accessible. No such arguement is being made against SF.
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Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

LeonhartForever | Posted 6/11/2006 9:11:27 PM | message detail

Well, I suppose Street Fighter not having a big release in a while isn't THAT big of a deal since it's an instantly recognizable name. But still, Resident Evil finished 2nd in the favorite Capcom series poll, and this was BEFORE Resident Evil 4.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden

Samurai7 | Posted 6/11/2006 9:13:05 PM | message detail

Ahh, but therein lies the problem. Which genre is more popular and successful...fighting...or survival horror?

Recently? Survivor Horror..... what was the last really successful fighting game?
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Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/11/2006 9:13:41 PM | message detail

Soul Calibur II and III? Super Smash Bros Melee? >_>
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The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa

therealmnm | Posted 6/11/2006 9:16:39 PM | message detail

Considering its competition was KHII I think it did well enough.

But KHII wasn't really that much competition for it. What else was the Xbox 360 fanbase supposed to vote for? Ghost Recon? Not on GameFAQs. It was expected that they vote for Oblivion there. We already know that Elder Scrolls probably has a dedicated fanbase on here, so it will get that 15-20% in those types of polls. A one-on-one popularity matchup with Street Fighter is a totally different story. Those outside of the Xbox/PC fanbase have no reason whatsoever to vote for Elder Scrolls over Street Fighter. It's not that well known of a series overall. That's already a huge hole it has to climb out of. I don't think even it's dedicated fanbase is enough to overcome a majority of the site that doesn't care about Elder Scrolls.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC

Samurai7 | Posted 6/11/2006 9:18:20 PM | message detail

Soul Calibur II... SSB:M IS a fighting game, but many people don't count it so I won't either. SCIII, did, well sub par.... I've worked at an EB since its release, full time since march and I have only sold a handful of copies. Where as I constantly sell RE4 used.
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Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/11/2006 9:19:39 PM | message detail

Well I'll be damned.....ya have me convinced for now. *Goes to change RE/SF pick*
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The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa

LeonhartForever | Posted 6/11/2006 9:21:34 PM | message detail

Oddly enough, the fighting series hasn't really been popular since the 2-D days.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden

therealmnm | Posted 6/11/2006 9:24:21 PM | message detail

Oddly enough, the fighting series hasn't really been popular since the 2-D days.

No, they were pretty popular with 3D as well. Tekken was pretty popular initially. I think the decline of arcades brought about the decline in fighting game popularity...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC

Samurai7 | Posted 6/11/2006 9:26:03 PM | message detail

No, they were pretty popular with 3D as well. Tekken was pretty popular initially. I think the decline of arcades brought about the decline in fighting game popularity...

Hopefully the inclusion of online multiplayer will be a subsititute for arcade's in bringing back fighting games.
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Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

LeonhartForever | Posted 6/11/2006 9:26:36 PM | message detail

I'm still angry about the day my mall took out my arcade, and that was many years ago.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/11/2006 9:30:15 PM | message detail

Soul Calibur III did well enough -- it sold some 450,000 copies.

Something also just entered my head, if it were not for Oblivion, would this match even be in question? I won't bother saying would it even be in the contest, but if Oblivion were not around would anyone even give this match a second thought? I don't think so. I understand that Morrowind released and was pretty popular, but Elder Scrolls is primarily going to work off of the recency of Oblivion and those fans.

Elder Scrolls is something that strikes me as having a more hardcore fanbase here that could beat a lot of lesser things, but really cannot stand up to any significant series, such as Street Fighter. You're talking about a series that basically every voter on here knows and has some familiarity with at some point (it spans so many generations, has had collections for this generation, is considered THE fighting game franchise, etc.) against something that does not have hardly any name recognition given its competitor and released on two platforms that are not heavily supported here at GameFAQs.

This match was never all that difficult for me, and I think people are giving Elder Scrolls some benefit due to Oblivion releasing and that poll that was held not too long ago. If it weren't for that, no one would even be bothering with this one. Elder Scrolls is set to Xbox and PC, both of which have not pumped out strong series here (Halo and StarCraft excluded). I'm not seeing where ES has a chance here unless we really start to stretch things, like comparing it to KotOR or saying SFII lost to SMRPG or whatever. I know I wouldn't take any Elder Scrolls game over any of the three games mentioned, and I don't think any match with them would be particularly close.

Elder Scrolls has a limited but dedicated fanbase here. The appeal of those games is not particularly widespread, the platforms they appear on are not the biggest systems here, and the series itself carries almost no big name that people are attached to.

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"So what I'm saying is, if we're gonna cooperate with someone, it might as well be that hot chick over there, know what I mean?"

therealmnm | Posted 6/11/2006 9:34:54 PM | message detail

HM pretty much summed up what I've been saying for the past two topics about ES/SF.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC

transience | Posted 6/11/2006 9:42:53 PM | message detail

I think we're entering the part of the bracket where the main arguments have been made and people are just trying to find an upset. I feel good with SF > ES and even better with RE > SF.
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xyzzy

Samurai7 | Posted 6/11/2006 9:46:27 PM | message detail

You're right, without Oblivion it wouldn't be here.... but it does have Oblivion. Morrowind + Oblivion may cerca KotOR.
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Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

SquallidSnake | Posted 6/11/2006 11:26:07 PM | message detail

You know, the more I think about it, the more this idea of "A series won't be much stronger than its strongest game" seems preposterous. It's basically like picking the most popular game from a series and saying the rest of it is worth virtually nothing.

Say if, for example, we combined Cloud and Squall into one entry. Would you really expect this not to be much stronger than just Cloud himself? I find that hard to believe because you're basically disregarding the 25% that prefer Squall over him. Put the two together, and you have a noticeably stronger force. I don't see why it's different for a series.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.

transience | Posted 6/11/2006 11:29:57 PM | message detail

I think the single most problematic part of predicting this contest is that we have no idea how people will vote. in, say, Cloud vs. Link, it's a simple who do you like more, but when it comes to series it could be "well, I like FF10 the most but Zelda games on average are better" or "Zelda games are better but FF7 is the best game ever so I'm voting for FF" or "Square has sucked over the last five years so Zelda gets my vote"... you could go on and on. until we see a few matches, it's rather difficult to predict this contest.
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xyzzy

SquallidSnake | Posted 6/11/2006 11:31:19 PM | message detail

A Series Contest is more difficult because you increase the likelihood of overlap, such as the situations you used.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.

LightningHD22 | Posted 6/11/2006 11:33:44 PM | message detail

Madden will crush Super Mario haha you all know it, Madden is the most popular videogame in the world

Lopen | Posted 6/11/2006 11:40:02 PM | message detail

I've never directly said a series isn't going to be much stronger than it's strongest game, but I can't disagree with it too much. I do believe people are likely to vote based on their favorite game from both series in the set.

So, if voter 1 has the opinion: Final Fantasy 7 >> Mario Bros 3 > Final Fantasy 6.

And voter 2 has the opinion: Final Fantasy 6 >> Mario Bros 3 > Final Fantasy 7.

Then Final Fantasy gets 1 extra vote in this match than Final Fantasy 7 would, assuming I'm right. But still, the strongest game in a series gets you a good estimate, at least. (For example who likes SMB more than SMB3? Not that many, I wouldn't think)
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SquallidSnake | Posted 6/11/2006 11:40:54 PM | message detail

(For example who likes SMB more than SMB3? Not that many, I wouldn't think)

Last I checked, SMB3 didn't net 95% in any favorites poll.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.

Lopen | Posted 6/11/2006 11:45:17 PM | message detail

I know, I know. But is it a reasonable estimate? I'd say it's reasonable assuming the voters vote how I say they will. And even if voter A likes SMB more than SMB3, there's no guarantee he's gonna like any Final Fantasy games more than SMB, but less than SMB3.
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244

SquallidSnake | Posted 6/11/2006 11:46:37 PM | message detail

And even if voter A likes SMB more than SMB3, there's no guarantee he's gonna like any Final Fantasy games more than SMB, but less than SMB3.

...Isn't this just saying SMB > SMB3 > FF > SMB?
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.

SquallidSnake | Posted 6/11/2006 11:48:16 PM | message detail

Either way, I cannot agree that it's reasonable because no entry dominates its series to enough of an extent to warrant such claims.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.

longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/11/2006 11:52:38 PM | message detail

Thats kinda confusing...
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The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa

Lopen | Posted 6/11/2006 11:56:07 PM | message detail

Maybe I was being ambiguous, what I meant to say is:

A voter has SMB > SMB3 as a preference.

There's no guarantee that the voter has SMB > Some Final Fantasy Game > SMB3.

In fact some (probably a majority) will have SMB > SMB3 > Some Final Fantasy Game.

And you can expect these little hierarchy battles to cancel out a bit, too, to soften the blow between the "best game from A" vs "best game from B" comparison. Eh... it's the best estimate we've got. I guess we could see some really crazy stuff if some series has a really disjointed fanbase. Expect the unexpected.
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244

SquallidSnake | Posted 6/11/2006 11:59:14 PM | message detail

But how many of you in actuality have it that way on your favorites list? Is it reasonable to assume that most (or you seem to imply that it's most) voters will have it that way?
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.

transience | Posted 6/12/2006 12:00:38 AM | message detail

here's a simplified version of my thinking. two people have the following inequality:

FF7 > OOT > LTTP > FF6 > Majora's Mask > FF10 > Zelda 1 > WW > FF4

what's to say that they'll both vote the same way? if that were my inequality, I'd probably vote Zelda, but someone else might vote FF.

also, I don't think FF7 is as big of a favourite here as some people think. it only got what, 54% on OOT? when you consider that LTTP beat FF6, WW and FF10 is debatable, Zelda 1 beats anything from the NES, Majora's Mask and FF8 are untested... I don't think FF is a lock. not at all.

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xyzzy

ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/12/2006 12:02:11 AM | message detail

"it only got what, 54% on OOT?"

It only got what, 24% of the people on this site saying it's the best game EVER? I mean, if a quarter of the site is going to chuck their vote at it without thought that's an awfully powerful machine.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police

Lopen | Posted 6/12/2006 12:04:01 AM | message detail

Is it reasonable to assume that most (or you seem to imply that it's most) voters will have it that way?

I'm not saying it's a strong majority, but there's probably at least a slight majority. I probably shouldn't even have put most there though, really.
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244

SquallidSnake | Posted 6/12/2006 12:05:29 AM | message detail

also, I don't think FF7 is as big of a favourite here as some people think. it only got what, 54% on OOT?

And then 27-28% also said that FFVII was the best game ever right after the Games Contest was over. Even on "NintendoFAQs" last October, 24% said it was the best game ever. It's a big favorite, all right.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.

ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/12/2006 12:07:15 AM | message detail

"It's a big favorite, all right."

It damn well is when every other game in existance only has 3 times the backing... and every other game in existance is a lot of games.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police

transience | Posted 6/12/2006 12:14:36 AM | message detail

It only got what, 24% of the people on this site saying it's the best game EVER? I mean, if a quarter of the site is going to chuck their vote at it without thought that's an awfully powerful machine.

again, just because you think it's the best game ever doesn't mean you'll vote it the best series ever. I wouldn't vote Metroid the best series ever despite it having my favourite game.

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xyzzy

SquallidSnake | Posted 6/12/2006 12:17:13 AM | message detail

Heh, but what Final Fantasy VII did for the Final Fantasy series is basically propel that one name to the top of many people's lists. You may not vote for Metroid despite it carrying your favorite game, but for most people around here...Final Fantasy is different.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.

transience | Posted 6/12/2006 12:20:04 AM | message detail

hmm, fair enough. I wonder what percentage of people would answer the same way about OOT? probably a good 15-20%. FF's the favourite, no doubt, but I wouldn't say it's a mortal lock.
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xyzzy

SquallidSnake | Posted 6/12/2006 12:21:36 AM | message detail

Well, Zelda has the advantage of having more people play it, but then again, OoT had that advantage over FFVII, too.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.

Applekidjosh | Posted 6/12/2006 12:23:39 AM | message detail

obligatory Elder Scrolls > Street Fighter

and AKJ > Kleenex

(I was going to try for 500 but I'm too damn tired. 498 works for me)
"""
"i don't know what's worse - that there's a "wang festival" in japan or that i didn't even think twice about it when i read that at first." - transience

ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/12/2006 12:24:00 AM | message detail

I doubt OoT gets more than 15% and there's no way it reaches 20%. If it did, it wouldn't have been beaten so easily.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police

transience | Posted 6/12/2006 12:24:07 AM | message detail

CJ lost... to Ness? GTA is doomed

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xyzzy

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