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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 289

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Slowflake | Posted 6/9/2006 7:51:13 PM | message detail
The BOP pegs GTA/Warcraft as the hardest match to call in the entire contest - and it's still 34-18 in GTA's favor. Personally, I'm having a harder time with MM/MK... but I'm not counting out Warcraft entirely, either.
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i beaten a lot of people in school in a battle. some are noobs like you some are pretty good. i have a perfect record of not loosing. -pika4
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/9/2006 7:52:07 PM | message detail
I swear, Board 8 continually suffers from Blizzard Burn. They refuse to count anything made by that company out, no matter how unlikely.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/9/2006 7:52:17 PM | message detail
I'd like to know just whats so addicting about WoW. Then again, I suppose the same could be said about GTA. Both games have their formulas, but GTA knows how to freshen and liven it up most of the time. For instance, I've been playing San Andreas a lot lately, and you have various fun as hell things you can do in that game.
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The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
Eggplant Lord | Posted 6/9/2006 7:54:53 PM | message detail
Given that Master Chief would have beaten Sora by a significant amount pre-KH II, I think the KH choice is being supported to an unreasonable extent.

Sora is strongly associated with Kingdom Hearts whereas Master Chief is just... yeah.

===
<Mindless Shadow Hearts promotion goes here>
It never ends!
longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/9/2006 7:55:51 PM | message detail
....Pre-KH2 Sora would of lost to Master Chief? You sure? What about the Flood Division....<_<
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The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/9/2006 7:55:57 PM | message detail
Given that Master Chief would have beaten Sora by a significant amount pre-KH II, I think the KH choice is being supported to an unreasonable extent.

Really? That's news to me. Master Chief barely lost to Frog, who struggled to beat Riku.

If Master Chief wins at all, it's not by much.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/9/2006 7:57:00 PM | message detail
Well Frog's performance in 04 and his performance in 05 are two entirely different beasts though, Leonhart....mainly due to the decrease of Chrono popularity last year.
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The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
Slowflake | Posted 6/9/2006 7:57:37 PM | message detail
They both faced Aeris.

Problem? The ho bag SFFed Sora to near-death.
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i beaten a lot of people in school in a battle. some are noobs like you some are pretty good. i have a perfect record of not loosing. -pika4
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/9/2006 7:58:03 PM | message detail
The ONLY (and I mean ONLY) reason that people think Chrono's popularity dropped is because Magus and Frog were overestimated all along.

Magus and Frog got exposed. They didn't get less popular. There's a difference.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Adept of Aiur | Posted 6/9/2006 7:58:09 PM | message detail

Sora is strongly associated with Kingdom Hearts whereas Master Chief is just... yeah.


That's curious, considering the fact that Master Chief is quite literally the face of Halo whereas Kingdom Hearts is popular more for it's Disney and Final Fantasy fanservice than Sora.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Slowflake | Posted 6/9/2006 7:58:18 PM | message detail
From longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/9/2006 10:57:00 PM | #157
Well Frog's performance in 04 and his performance in 05 are two entirely different beasts though, Leonhart....mainly due to the decrease of Chrono popularity last year.

NO THEY AREN'T. The Snake match was a fluke. Everybody knows that.
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i beaten a lot of people in school in a battle. some are noobs like you some are pretty good. i have a perfect record of not loosing. -pika4
longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/9/2006 7:58:33 PM | message detail
What about Crono's performance against Vincent, Mario, and Mega Man then?
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The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/9/2006 7:59:14 PM | message detail
Regardless of whether it was a fluke or not because of this "Solid ****" sprite matter that is always brought about, you can't change the bloody facts.
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The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
Slowflake | Posted 6/9/2006 7:59:44 PM | message detail
And yet you try to do just that. Good job, Joe.
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i beaten a lot of people in school in a battle. some are noobs like you some are pretty good. i have a perfect record of not loosing. -pika4
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/9/2006 7:59:51 PM | message detail
Master Chief is a nutcase. Crono/Mega Man went within half a percent of where it would've been expected to be in 2004. Mario just got stronger. 45% on Sephiroth should be evidence of that.

You can't say anything about Vincent because we've never seen him before.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/9/2006 8:00:15 PM | message detail
BTW I had Crono over Mario, and thats about the only reason I didn't make the Top 10 last contest.....so I've lost a lotta faith in Chrono Trigger's popularity...still my fav game ever though >_>
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The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
HaRRicH | Posted 6/9/2006 8:01:57 PM | message detail
I forgot to mention these two, for whatever reason:



[1.] No matter how much I thinkit should not be so, MMX is going to be stronger than MMClassic, and MM's popularity comes from a combination of the two... they don't have an absolute overlap. MMC will only be a fraction of MM's power, Mario Kart is exceptionally popular of its own right (I mean, look at how many "spin-offs" there are in this contest, not even FFT made it.) and if this were a game contest I doubt most of you would take MM2 over MK64.

[2.] I've yet to hear a MM/MK argument (maybe I just missed them), but I'd take MK64 over any MM game easily, and probably would do the same with SMK.



...man, I done went and **** myself over this match again. Mega Man's got to get its strength from SOMEWHERE...but, man, it would shock me all to hell to see Mario Kart 64 lose to any Mega Man game...it would probably handle itself well against any two Mega Man games, for that matter. SMK would beat most MM games, too, if not all of them...and MK has the most recent big release with MKDS (runner-up for GotY in 2k5), too. Add to it the 360 being released and my thinking that newer gamers aren't going to favor Mega Man any (though this probably won't be much of a factor), as well as Link/Mega Man and maybe Mario/Zero featuring SFF...heck, I'll go even further: the Mario spin-offs is probably where Yoshi gets so much of his popularity as far as the two Mario polls go, and we know Mario Kart is the most popular Mario spin-off (I don't consider SSB a spin-off, really).

In short: DAMN YOU, FOUR-PACK OF FUN BOARD! All signs point to MK winning except for two things: Mega Man has a LOT of games, and Mega Man has to have its strength from somewhere. He has to.....
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Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007
therealmnm | Posted 6/9/2006 8:02:26 PM | message detail
People forget about the large Cinderella bandwagons Magus and Frog had in those particular contest. It wasn't a decrease in Crono Trigger's popularity. It was people jumping off the bandwagon.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/9/2006 8:02:40 PM | message detail
And yet you try to do just that. Good job, Joe.

Your misunderstanding me. Your saying a picture can impact the results THAT much man? Give me your Kefka/Wesker, Snake/Sora, Snake/Bowser, and Snake/Frog stats all you want...but then take a look at stuff like Snake/Zelda....Snake/Manny...and he dealt with both of them exactly how he should have, didn't he? So how can you know just how much a picture affects the vote for sure, honestly?
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The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
Slowflake | Posted 6/9/2006 8:03:20 PM | message detail
Kefka/Wesker wasn't a fluke. Wesker is just that ****ing weak.
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i beaten a lot of people in school in a battle. some are noobs like you some are pretty good. i have a perfect record of not loosing. -pika4
heroic tranny | Posted 6/9/2006 8:03:37 PM | message detail
heh, I feel the same way. I feel like I'm short-selling Mega Man for not taking him.... but I don't know. maybe I'm just upset-hungry.

for more discussion on MK/MM:

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=28575655
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xyzzy
longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/9/2006 8:04:22 PM | message detail
Didn't say it was a fluke, I was just trying to get a point across :P
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The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/9/2006 8:05:22 PM | message detail
Nobody's saying it was just the picture, but for Magus and Frog to take such HUGE drops in popularity is a bit too much for me to buy, especially when Crono remains fairly consistent. People didn't suddenly stop liking them.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 6/9/2006 8:07:01 PM | message detail
"All signs point to MK winning except for two things: Mega Man has a LOT of games, and Mega Man has to have its strength from somewhere. He has to....."

Yeah, he has a LOT of games. The MM series in question is only a fraction of that, and it's not reasonable to consider it the biggest fraction. MM Classic will not be near the strength of MM.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
therealmnm | Posted 6/9/2006 8:10:22 PM | message detail
I think some people supporting Mega Man are thinking that since Classic Mega Man has been used to represent the character, then the Classic Mega Man series will represent the entire series. I bet if Mega Man had been represented by MMX pics in this contest, people would be looking at this more as "Classic Mega Man" series vs. the entire series and realize that it won't necessarily be at full strength.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
therealmnm | Posted 6/9/2006 8:11:10 PM | message detail
*represented by MMX in all of hte contests that is
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
LordOfDabu | Posted 6/9/2006 8:13:32 PM | message detail
I would think that someone who really liked the X games but hasn't played the others will still vote for classic Mega Man.
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"I wish I was uniformly bounded; That is what I'd truly like to be.
For if I was uniformly bounded; I would be less than infinity."
Big Bob | Posted 6/9/2006 8:14:55 PM | message detail
And here's my response to a post two pages ago:

Lyndis would beat James thanks to TJF.
Eliwood...eh...he MIGHT...I suppose so.
Hector would beat the crap out of him. Everybody loves Hector.

And Big Bob explains that Pyramid Head was truely weakest in the villains contest!

Pyramid placed 29th, ahead of Luca Blight, Giygas, and Officer Tenpenny. Let's look at those three.

Giygas, from Earthbound fought Ganondorf, from The Legend of Zelda. LttP is one of the most popular games on the SNES, and anybody who's played Earthbound has likely played a game from the Zelda series as well. People have their own opinions, and even a big fan of Earthbound may still prefer Ganondorf as a villain. The result? SFF.

Officer Tenpenny is a Playstation character, same as Liquid Snake. He may have gotten SFF'd. Liquid Snake and Sephiroth are also both Playstation characters. At least one of them got SFF'd.

Luca's problems stem from Kefka, Diablo, and Ganondorf. As we know, Diablo was rallied for against Kefka, but not against Ganondorf. That means that he wasn't as strong in his last match, dragging everyone in the division lower than where they should have been. (Remember how Ocelot was barely ahead of Kefka in the stats, and how Kefka barely beat Pac-Man? That's why Pac-Man won). So Luca Blight should have been a tad bit stronger in the stats.

Pyramid Head? I doubt there was much fanbase overlap against Bowser (though I still have a theory that widely popular characters can SFF people who have nothing to do with them), and it was thought that Bowser overperformed against Sephiroth. All this means is that Pyramid Head was the weakest in the field.

In conclusion, FE > SH.
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"Nobody shoots anybody in the face unless you're a hit man or a video gamer." - Jack Thompson
heroic tranny | Posted 6/9/2006 8:16:25 PM | message detail
..wow. PSSFF, SNESFF, characters = games... where to start?!

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xyzzy
longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/9/2006 8:17:24 PM | message detail
That conclusion is so loosely related with SH and FE in a series setting that it makes my head explode brother (@_@)
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The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
therealmnm | Posted 6/9/2006 8:19:22 PM | message detail
I would think that someone who really liked the X games but hasn't played the others will still vote for classic Mega Man.

Not if they like Mario Kart, which a hell of a lot of people do. You're under the impression that people who like Mega Man will vote for anything Mega Man. I would think that once they support the series that they like (MMX), that they would go and support other series that they like instead of backing anything with the Mega Man name.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Adept of Aiur | Posted 6/9/2006 8:20:26 PM | message detail

Not if they like Mario Kart, which a hell of a lot of people do. You're under the impression that people who like Mega Man will vote for anything Mega Man. I would think that once they support the series that they like (MMX), that they would go and support other series that they like instead of backing anything with the Mega Man name.


Assuming they even remember voting for MMX 2 weeks earlier than MM's match.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/9/2006 8:20:39 PM | message detail
I would think that someone who really liked the X games but hasn't played the others will still vote for classic Mega Man.

I'm someone, and *holy ****, I've been waiting 86 years to say this*

Dabu, YOU ARE WRONG.
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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
Master Moltar | Posted 6/9/2006 8:20:59 PM | message detail
Mega Man has a LOT of games, and Mega Man has to have its strength from somewhere.

That's what I'm banking on. I'm thinking most Mega Man (character) fans will see the series, and vote for it. I believe Mega Man's strength won't be too far off from his series because he has nowhere else to draw his power from. Most people who vote Mega Man must like the series, right?

Of course, I still can't count out the Mario fans voting for Mario Kart. Funny how this match creeped up to become the one I'm least confident in. All but a few signs point to MK winning.
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Moltar Status: Eagerly awaiting for the next Contest to begin.
therealmnm | Posted 6/9/2006 8:23:16 PM | message detail
Assuming they even remember voting for MMX 2 weeks earlier than MM's match.

You think the voting base is that blind? They know that they are voting in a contest that says "Best Series Ever" and once they see that Mega Man X is represented as a series, they won't suddenly forget 2 weeks later when Mega Man Classic shows up. Unless you think that the entire voting base changes in 2 weeks?
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Adept of Aiur | Posted 6/9/2006 8:25:09 PM | message detail

You think the voting base is that blind? They know that they are voting in a contest that says "Best Series Ever" and once they see that Mega Man X is represented as a series, they won't suddenly forget 2 weeks later when Mega Man Classic shows up. Unless you think that the entire voting base changes in 2 weeks?


Nope, I'm just really tired.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
LordOfDabu | Posted 6/9/2006 8:25:53 PM | message detail
It's not that they don't know they are different. They do, and they'll vote for both, even knowing that classic Mega Man technically isn't X. It's why new FF games will do well in polls despite most people not having played them yet.
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"I wish I was uniformly bounded; That is what I'd truly like to be.
For if I was uniformly bounded; I would be less than infinity."
therealmnm | Posted 6/9/2006 8:27:01 PM | message detail
That's what I'm banking on. I'm thinking most Mega Man (character) fans will see the series, and vote for it. I believe Mega Man's strength won't be too far off from his series because he has nowhere else to draw his power from. Most people who vote Mega Man must like the series, right?

I've said before, we have no idea on how Mega Man the character compares to Mario Kart as a series. For all we know, Mario Kart could surpass it in popularity even if we can't directly compare series vs. characters. Two, a lot of Mega Man's strength comes from the X series, which is already represented. Like others, you're banking on X fans to support everything Mega Man. It's not guaranteed in the least.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
therealmnm | Posted 6/9/2006 8:29:43 PM | message detail
It's not that they don't know they are different. They do, and they'll vote for both, even knowing that classic Mega Man technically isn't X. It's why new FF games will do well in polls despite most people not having played them yet.

Well yeah, but the name can only take you so far. Look at the original Final Fantasy in the games contest. It went up against Super Mario Bros. 3 and got crushed. Fans of the other Final Fantasy games only took it so far...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Adept of Aiur | Posted 6/9/2006 8:30:53 PM | message detail

I've said before, we have no idea on how Mega Man the character compares to Mario Kart as a series. For all we know, Mario Kart could surpass it in popularity even if we can't directly compare series vs. characters. Two, a lot of Mega Man's strength comes from the X series, which is already represented. Like others, you're banking on X fans to support everything Mega Man. It's not guaranteed in the least.


It's not guaranteed but... well, the Mega Man X games aren't exactly radically different than the classic ones. Yeah, there are new bells and whistles, but the underlying gameplay is remarkably similar, and I think in general, it's safe to assume that if someone likes one series, they like the other.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
therealmnm | Posted 6/9/2006 8:36:06 PM | message detail
But it's not safe! Really, once the X series began, the Classic series was basically over. 7 was released on SNES and 8 was released on Playstation. But the X series was just getting started. It was released first for the Super NES, and gamers that began with the SNES went on to take X as the Mega Man game. It thus went on to generate its own fanbase, as the series branched off to the Playstation and Playstation 2. Sure there are some that like both series, but there are plenty of X fans that don't really care for the classic series. And even if they like it, there is certainly enough room between their liking of the two series for a popular series like Mario Kart to slip in between them!
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 6/9/2006 8:38:28 PM | message detail
I agree with Leonhart and Chichiri on the issue with LoZ vs. FF .. No matter how I look at it, i just can't see FF losing and I am not being bias here .. Whenever I approach this match, it just screams out like another OoT vs. FFVII ... But agian, that's just my take...

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Eagerly awaiting Final Fantasy XII!
yoblazer33 | Posted 6/9/2006 8:39:11 PM | message detail
I don't see why it's so unreasonable to use Sonic 2's SpC2K4 performance as a possible strength indicator of the MM games. As we've recently seen, the two characters are pretty much equal. In addition to Mario, no other characters are as identifiable with their series as Sonic and Mega Man. If Sonic's strongest game can get so thoroughly destroyed by a Nintendo game, why is Mega Man suddenly granted immunity?

Now, don't jump all over me just yet. I understand that Super Mario World isn't your average Nintendo game. It would obviously beat any of the Mario Karts. However, two points:

1. I have a feeling that Sonic 2 is more popular than any Mega Man game (although it might have its hands full with MM2).
2. Sonic 2's 70/30 humiliation was far, FAR from your average loss.

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Board 8: Where Wii treat each other right.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/9/2006 8:54:23 PM | message detail
LTTP wound up beating FF6 by almost 5000 votes. I don't think FF could beat Zelda 1. FF8 vs MM is tough. FFX and Wind Waker are equal.

Did you completely ignore everything I wrote in your other topic? FFX and TWW are not as equal as you like to think. You're looking at those stats without taking into consideration anything that happened in that contest.

And why you insist on bringing up Final Fantasy 1 as if mattered is beyond me. Final Fantasy does not get its popularity from games that far back. It's entirely likely that a good bit of that strength came from namesake alone -- and it was enough to get, what, 40% on SMB3 or so?

FFVIII against Majora's Mask is pretty much a no brainer for me. I don't think Majora's Mask would rank above the original Zelda, FFVIII is going to be around FFX's strength too. Saying that all Final Fantasy has is Final Fantasy VII is just incorrect. There's just no way around it.

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"Princess, there's no need for worry. Who do you think I am? I'm the hero of the story. And the hero never dies."
Janus5000 | Posted 6/9/2006 8:54:43 PM | message detail
Hmmm... could Soul Calibur stand a chance against Metal Gear? The original almost beat Kingdom Hearts all those years ago, and Soul Calibur II was on all three next-gen console, plus it received pretty good reviews (as did the original)...

What are the latest sales figures for the SC games?
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
therealmnm | Posted 6/9/2006 8:59:41 PM | message detail
You know, Soul Calibur 2 came out before the Spring Contest. I have always had little doubt that Soul Calibur's strength in that match came from the recent popularity due to the huge SC2 multi-platform marketing scheme. And that was also when KH wasn't as popular as it is now. The tides have definitely changed since then...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
bigkevinm84 | Posted 6/9/2006 9:15:28 PM | message detail
I just hope SC does decently against MG. SCII is one of my favorite games for the Gamecube.
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Nominate Fox McCloud for 2006! and support Yoshi!
You have no chance to survive make your time.
FastFalcon05 | Posted 6/9/2006 9:24:30 PM | message detail
I don't see why it's so unreasonable to use Sonic 2's SpC2K4 performance as a possible strength indicator of the MM games.

I think the biggest problem there is that this isn't a games contest, it's a series contest. While any of Megaman's games might be as weak as Sonic's, we still don't know what it means for either of them as a series. It's a good starting point, but, it's difficult to dismiss everything Megaman against Mario Kart. Megaman the character we at least know is strong, Mario Kart we don't. The best we have is super mario kart at 61, which is all right, but still uninspiring.

Also, we seem to be focusing on why megaman should have any strength, but I think more thought should be given to why mario kart. It didn't make the games contest (a minor point, okay, but nintendo's other big side series, ssb, did). Eesh, I really can't think of other things to say either against it or for it. At least with Megaman, you have a very strong character, with mario kart....there's just nothing.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
Kaxon | Posted 6/9/2006 9:25:50 PM | message detail
I swear, Board 8 continually suffers from Blizzard Burn. They refuse to count anything made by that company out, no matter how unlikely.

Funny what a turn around it is from spring 2004, when there were tons of people guaranteeing Starcraft loses every single round.

Well yeah, but the name can only take you so far. Look at the original Final Fantasy in the games contest. It went up against Super Mario Bros. 3 and got crushed. Fans of the other Final Fantasy games only took it so far...

There's a big difference between Super Mario 3 and Mario Kart. And there's also a big difference between the Mega Man situation and the Final Fantasy situation. FF VII is way more popular than Final Fantasy I, while Mega Man and Mega Man X are pretty close together.
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/9/2006 9:32:17 PM | message detail
Funny what a turn around it is from spring 2004, when there were tons of people guaranteeing Starcraft loses every single round.

That's what caused it. People are afraid of getting burned for not picking it. The irony is that now they're getting burned for thinking too highly of it.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden