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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 287

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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2006 12:26:19 AM | message detail
Man, another poll asking if the PS3 is doomed.

Speaking of old polls, I wonder...Would Seifer or Laguna really be the 2nd strongest after Squall? I know favorites polls are tricky, but...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=846

Laguna is actually fifth on the list, barely behind Rinoa. I'm of the opinion that the FFVIII lead female isn't quite as hated elsewhere as she is on this board, so she might have some decent strength. Zell won 2nd place rather easily, though I wouldn't take it too seriously.

The ordering reflects my own hierarchy almost exactly, which is scary. Still, I say Seifer is most likely to be 2nd strongest.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2006 7:49:32 AM | message detail
Couple it with an appearance in KH, and I would guess Seifer's the second strongest...but, it's hard to tell too. I never played FF8, afterall.....
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Applause Sign | Posted 6/7/2006 9:45:06 AM | message detail
I'd guess Seifer.

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Kaxon | Posted 6/7/2006 10:07:19 AM | message detail
Pre-KH2 I definitely would have said Laguna - he's playable and has a bigger role. Post KH2 I might still take Laguna, but that might just be my bias talking - Seifer was the only character in the game that annoyed me more than Squall.
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
therealmnm | Posted 6/7/2006 10:17:45 AM | message detail
Meh, for as much hate that they get, I would think Zell or Rinoa could beas popular, if not more, than Laguna. There wasn't really one character that stood out over the others after Squall. Remember that Rinoa still has plenty of fanboys who think that she is one of the best looking VG characters ever (or at least she DID have plenty). When I used to frequent the FF8 boards when I first came on this site, it was pretty evenly spread out. I definitely don't think there would be much difference in their strength indirectly.

But yeah, none of those characters are overly popular, so I don't think the hate or indifference towards them would matter much as long as they have their core fanbase.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/7/2006 10:20:16 AM | message detail
I would suspect that Seifer would come in as the second strongest FFVIII character. Laguna wouldn't be too far behind, nor would the others, I don't think.

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"Princess, there's no need for worry. Who do you think I am? I'm the hero of the story. And the hero never dies."
therealmnm | Posted 6/7/2006 10:26:48 AM | message detail
Well Seifer would now thanks to Kingdom Hearts, but before that, I don't think there would be much to separate the rest of the FFVIII crew indirectly. You may see some 55-45 or so matches between them as the fanbase will probably side with one over the other, but overall, I really don't see any difference between them indirectly. And I definetely don't think they will end up being too strong.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Sp2K6Champ | Posted 6/7/2006 10:31:43 AM | message detail
Well isn't the entire KH-theory that it benefits all square characters as a whole, not just the characters who have apperances in it?
Sp2K6Champ | Posted 6/7/2006 10:31:56 AM | message detail
*appearances
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/7/2006 10:33:24 AM | message detail
I think Seifer will end up with some solid strength, myself. And I would have taken him over the other FFVIII characters before KH2, directly and indirectly.

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"Princess, there's no need for worry. Who do you think I am? I'm the hero of the story. And the hero never dies."
Sp2K6Champ | Posted 6/7/2006 10:35:46 AM | message detail
Same here... now I just expect them all to be stronger. I don't expect a huge square boost this year though, a noticable one maybe, but nothing like what we saw the last time. Which is pretty obvious, but I felt like saying it anyway.
Sp2K6Champ | Posted 6/7/2006 10:35:59 AM | message detail
And I really can't spell today.
therealmnm | Posted 6/7/2006 10:43:43 AM | message detail
Well yeah, but once you start going to the lesser characters from 1998 or so, it hardly wouldn't matter much. With characters like Cloud and Sephiroth, most Square fans are diehard fans of them, and probably would vote for them over anybody. I don't think the same would hold for the likes of Laguna. Sure you have more fans on the site with the potential to vote for Laguna. But I don't think they will.

What kind of expectations do you have for where they would land in strength?
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Sp2K6Champ | Posted 6/7/2006 10:47:58 AM | message detail
If I had to pick a place for Seifer, I'd probably put him around Frog 2K5. I still can't believe Sora isn't adjusted at all in the stats either.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/7/2006 10:56:16 AM | message detail
I could see Seifer around the 21 - 23% area.

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"Princess, there's no need for worry. Who do you think I am? I'm the hero of the story. And the hero never dies."
Sp2K6Champ | Posted 6/7/2006 10:57:20 AM | message detail
Frog 22.88% !!
therealmnm | Posted 6/7/2006 10:58:13 AM | message detail
You think Seifer is more popular now than Riku was? You must have faith in FFVIII fans being dedicated to him. I'd peg him a tad lower.

As far as adjusting Sora, we're all knowledgeable enough about the x-stats to determine our own adjustments for him. It doesn't make sense to try to have one universal adjustment when so many people disagree on how much he should be adjusted. Remember the debates we went through for adjusting Samus in those x-stats and everybody knows she was SFF'd. I think it's easier to let people make their own judgements on where they fall.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Sp2K6Champ | Posted 6/7/2006 11:02:14 AM | message detail
I would have just given him his 2K4 number, but oh well. And the whole Samus thing was a mess, because if we gave her, her 2K4 number she would have been higher than a person who beat her in the stats. Which I think is true to a point, because I still believe Samus is indirectly stronger than Mario so long as she isn't facing a Nintendo character, but then we base the stats off of Link, who is a Nintendo character, and the whole thing turns into a mess. Anyway, I don't want to open up that can o' worms again, so I'll leave it at that.

As for Seifer being stronger than Riku, Squall is a lot more popular than Sora, so it's not like it's really crazy for Seifer to outdo Riku. Not saying it's a given though...
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 6/7/2006 11:04:08 AM | message detail
I'd like to see a rematch between Link and Mario.
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therealmnm | Posted 6/7/2006 11:14:11 AM | message detail
As for Seifer being stronger than Riku, Squall is a lot more popular than Sora, so it's not like it's really crazy for Seifer to outdo Riku. Not saying it's a given though...

Yeah, but that's Squall though. I don't think it's fair to try to use ratios since FFVIII was so much more focused on Squall. And we see what ratios did for Terra. That's a dangerous route to travel. Just looking at Seifer and Riku, I think Riku was much more popular in KH then Seifer was in FFVIII. Riku was a favorite over Sora among quite a few KH fans. And his game is just as popular as Seifer's. I don't think that Seifer's cameo in KH2 is enough for him to match what Riku's popularity was after KH and CoM. He might be close, but I still think pre-KH2 Riku tops Seifer in popularity.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/7/2006 11:15:53 AM | message detail
And his game is just as popular as Seifer's.

Not necessarily disagreeing with the rest of your post, but FFVIII would crush KH, directly and indirectly.
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*is Karma Hunter*
Applause Sign | Posted 6/7/2006 11:19:09 AM | message detail
I'm not trying to really use ratios here, but it's a fact that FF8 trumps KH, and Squall trumps Sora. Even if Riku were more popular among KH fans than Seifer among FF8 fans, that still leaves a nice amount of room for Seifer to be stronger than Riku.

And I called Terra bombing like the whore she is.

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Tiedus | Posted 6/7/2006 11:24:02 AM | message detail
He might be close, but I still think pre-KH2 Riku tops Seifer in popularity.

Well, at the very least he is going to be close to Riku. Seifer does come from a more popular game, has some definite popularity himself, and makes an appearance in Kingdom Hearts II. It wouldn't be the least bit shocking to me to see Seifer beat Riku. Of course, it would be a close match either way, but Seifer would have everything necessary to be able to at least fall around that area, which is a pretty good area of strength.

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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Some bloodlines must come to an end.
therealmnm | Posted 6/7/2006 11:26:06 AM | message detail
Indirectly? No. FF may be able to beat Kingdom Hearts by having the Final Fantasy name, but among its fans, it is just as popular as FFVIII is now.

#16: Kingdom Hearts - PS2
#17: Final Fantasy VIII - PS

And more over, Kingdom Hearts wasn't that far behind Final Fantasy X in 2k4, and FFVIII and FFX are about the same in popularity on this site. And given that Kingdom Hearts as a franchise is more popular now than it was in 2k4, and I don't see how FFVIII "crushes" Kingdom Hearts indirectly. Starcraft itself didn't even crush Kingdom Hearts. So unless you see FFVIII as being up near FFVI or above, I don't see how it crushes KH.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Tiedus | Posted 6/7/2006 11:29:09 AM | message detail
Heh. Kingdom Hearts placed only one spot higher in that Top 100 list than it did in the stats.

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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Some bloodlines must come to an end.
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/7/2006 11:30:27 AM | message detail
Please don't use the top ten list for trying to prove KH is more popular than FFVIII...believe me, I'd like to use it to say MGS is more popular than FFVI, but both suggestions are almost certainly wrong.

And Starcraft overrates KH, plain and simple -- I went over this many times before a few topics ago, and between its near loss to Soul Calibur (which wouldn't get anywhere near FFVIII) and KH2's bombing against Oblivion in the very recent poll...no. KH is simply overrated, and it would crumble against FFVIII or anything on par with it.
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*is Karma Hunter*
therealmnm | Posted 6/7/2006 11:33:52 AM | message detail
Well, at the very least he is going to be close to Riku. Seifer does come from a more popular game, has some definite popularity himself, and makes an appearance in Kingdom Hearts II. It wouldn't be the least bit shocking to me to see Seifer beat Riku. Of course, it would be a close match either way, but Seifer would have everything necessary to be able to at least fall around that area, which is a pretty good area of strength.

I'm not even talking about direct matchups at all, so I don't know why the debate has turned that way. I'm comparing Seifer's strength to pre-KH Riku indirectly. KH has shown to be almost as big a name on this site as FFVIII is today, regardless of how they would directly matchup with each other. I just don't see Seifer as popular now as Riku was in 2k5. I did say that Seifer is close to that.

As for Seifer beating Riku now? We're not taking into consideration what Kingdom Hearts 2 has done for Riku. Riku definitely is going to be stronger than he was last summer.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Applause Sign | Posted 6/7/2006 11:42:23 AM | message detail
There's nothing I hate more than using the top 100 list when discussing strength in a normal contest setting.

It's a nominating system on roids pretty much, and shouldn't be used at all outside of making extremely rough estimates.

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longbladeofhiko | Posted 6/7/2006 11:43:19 AM | message detail
hay guys, wuts goin down in dis stats topic
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The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
Applause Sign | Posted 6/7/2006 11:46:20 AM | message detail
For some reason your last post didn't load up for me until after I made mine... anyway, I agree that Riku will be somewhat stronger. But I think everything Square will also be stronger than last year, and on top of that of course he has more reason to boost than Seifer (not that we've actually seen Seifer, but for arguments sake) but I wouldn't expect any more than a couple of percentage points on top of any Square shift we might see. I'm not trying to say it would be a blowout, far from it, but I'd take Seifer.

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transience | Posted 6/7/2006 11:48:05 AM | message detail
The List has some credibility though, just look at the games at the top. it's definitely not the end-all that some people make it out to be, but neither are the game contest's x-stats. in fact, I'd say the game contest x-stats are just as bad if not worse.

KH is indeed overrated. it was probably the biggest disappointment in 2k4 and hasn't done anything to convince me otherwise.
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xyzzy
Applause Sign | Posted 6/7/2006 11:51:09 AM | message detail
That's why I said outside of an extremely rough estimate. Of course it's not going to be completely bat **** crazy, but it's not much better than putting full faith into seeds.

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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2006 11:58:54 AM | message detail
I don't think I'd have much of a problem taking Seifer over Riku. I mean, he wasn't THAT strong last year. FFVIII has plenty of fans (much like KH does with Riku over Sora) that would prefer Seifer over Squall. Yet despite his fan favorite status (really, Auron is the only fan favorite who can compare with his lead), he wasn't that close to Sora.

I think it would be within 55/45 either way, but I would feel comfortable taking Seifer to beat Riku, even in 2006. After all, Squall is stronger than ANY Final Fantasy X character (except for MAYBE Auron, but we can't ever seem to get a good read on the guy), and FFX has no less than FOUR characters who are solid middle tiers. I think FFVIII can manage at least one more.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/7/2006 12:00:19 PM | message detail
really, Auron is the only fan favorite who can compare with his lead

*cough*Vivi*cough*

...man, I'm being kind of picky today. =(
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*is Karma Hunter*
therealmnm | Posted 6/7/2006 12:01:44 PM | message detail
There's nothing I hate more than using the top 100 list when discussing strength in a normal contest setting. It's a nominating system on roids pretty much, and shouldn't be used at all outside of making extremely rough estimates.

As I said before, I wasn't even discussing the contest strength of Kingdom Hearts. I was talking about the presence of KH's core fanbase on this site right now. The FFVIII fanbase may be bigger than KH, but what I'm saying is that it doesn't mean that Seifer will automatically be more popular than Riku. Riku is much more popular among his fanbase than Seifer is (Seifer would not get 40% on Squall indirectly). And I don't think that the difference between the KH fanbase is that much smaller than the FFVIII fanbase. Notice I said nothing about the games' popularity. I'm talking about the fanbase on this site.

All in all, I'd peg Seifer to be slightly less than what Riku was in SC2k5. I definitely wouldn't take him to beat Riku now, as I would take post-KH2 Riku to beat Frog in a rematch.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
LegendarySnake | Posted 6/7/2006 12:02:59 PM | message detail
Right, right. Forgot about Vivi, for some reason. Still, there is that "Crono SFF'd Zidane" argument, though I personally don't buy it. Either way, it wouldn't be enough to get him high enough to be worth anything.

Still, either way, even FFIX has gotten THREE different representatives, and FFVI has had two. It's about time FFVIII gets a second.
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I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake!
therealmnm | Posted 6/7/2006 12:05:21 PM | message detail
Okay, before I put up my next post, who's alt is Sp2K6Champ? I'm making sure I'm not mixing people up.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
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LegendarySnake | Posted 6/7/2006 12:05:58 PM | message detail
(Seifer would not get 40% on Squall indirectly)

Maybe not NOW, but perhaps before Kingdom Hearts turned Squall into a high-mid character.

Of course, I still wonder if perhaps something didn't happen in Snake/Squall back in 2002 as well. After all, we've seen two possible instances of FFVII SFFing MGS, and we saw what Snake did to Sora (I just can't buy ALL of that being due to the match picture), so I don't necessarily see anything THAT crazy about MGS possibly "SFFing" FFVIII.
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I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake!
Applause Sign | Posted 6/7/2006 12:07:59 PM | message detail
I am... but suddenly I have a really bad headache and don't feel like doing anything but reading other people debate. >_>

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therealmnm | Posted 6/7/2006 12:14:02 PM | message detail
Maybe not NOW, but perhaps before Kingdom Hearts turned Squall into a high-mid character.

Pick an argument! You can't use Squall's pre-KH2 strength as a comparison for Seifer's popularity, but then use post-KH Squall's strength as a correlation to where Seifer would fall now! Unless you think KH2 did for Seifer what KH1 and 2 did for Squall??????

Yeah. I'm bored. It's raining down here and my allergies are acting up so I'm just laying in bed on my laptop.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
therealmnm | Posted 6/7/2006 12:26:53 PM | message detail
Meh, this really worth debating. I'm surprised that people are taking Seifer to beat Riku now though. Frog's level is about the absolute highest I could see Seifer, and Riku got 48% on Frog before KH2. I'd take Riku to beat Frog now in a rematch, so I don't see Seifer beating Riku unless he got some kind of SFF on him or something.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Tiedus | Posted 6/7/2006 12:28:22 PM | message detail
I'm comparing Seifer's strength to pre-KH Riku indirectly. KH has shown to be almost as big a name on this site as FFVIII is today, regardless of how they would directly matchup with each other. I just don't see Seifer as popular now as Riku was in 2k5. I did say that Seifer is close to that.

Indirectly, I would still say that Seifer is probably right on par with Riku. There has not been a thing to tell me that Seifer would be much further, if at all, below that level. How many post Final Fantasy VII characters are actually that weak, with the exception of Final Fantasy IX, which is not even comparable to Final Fantasy VIII?

Final Fantasy VIII is undoubtedly on par with Final Fantasy X as far as popularity goes. Squall is a beast in the contests, so I don't know why Final Fantasy VIII could not turn out one more pretty popular representative, especially after he has appeared in Kingdom Hearts II. Even though I don't think right now that his strength would be higher, it wouldn't be surprising if Seifer is a percentage or two higher than what we're discussing. FFVIII characters are not lacking in popularity at all.

As for Seifer beating Riku now? We're not taking into consideration what Kingdom Hearts 2 has done for Riku. Riku definitely is going to be stronger than he was last summer.

I wouldn't take Seifer to beat Riku now, no. I was mostly talking about his 22.12% value. I think Riku's going to benefit pretty well from KH2, if only because he was very cool when he did appear.

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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Some bloodlines must come to an end.
SquallidSnake | Posted 6/7/2006 12:31:13 PM | message detail
Pick an argument! You can't use Squall's pre-KH2 strength as a comparison for Seifer's popularity, but then use post-KH Squall's strength as a correlation to where Seifer would fall now!

...When did I do that? I was just saying that Squall might have been stronger than he looked in 2002 BEFORE Kingdom Hearts, meaning that Seifer would have a higher maximum potential than he would otherwise. If nothing happened, then yeah, Seifer's likely to be nothing special. I just think that there's the possibility that something DID happen in Snake/Squall that's worth talking about, which in turn COULD affect where Seifer could fall.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
therealmnm | Posted 6/7/2006 12:40:48 PM | message detail
It looked like you were bringing pre-KH Squall as an argument when I said that Seifer wouldn't get 40% on Squall (I don't even think Seifer would have gotten 40% on Squll in 2k2. Let's be realistic now...) Riku gets 41% on Sora's strongest value. I don't see Seifer getting that on Squall pre or post KH. I think it's safe to say that Riku is more of a favorite than Seifer as far as being closer to their main.

And just because Squall is such a strong character doesn't mean that it will automatically correlate to Seifer. I don't like to use correlations at all, because each is an individual situation. None of the other Final Fantasies are like FF8, where the main character is so much more popular than the other characters. Yuna, Rikku, and Auron all have their own reasons on why they are so strong (Auron being the fan-favorite, Yuna/Rikku having FFX-2). So you can't really point to other FF characters as assurance that Seifer will have decent strength. Sure, he can but it definitely isn't a given.

I still say that Seifer ends up right under where Riku was in 2k5 (21-22%), so I don't really see what the big deal is. I don't see why Squall needs to be brought into the argument in the first place.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/7/2006 12:46:10 PM | message detail
It may *look* like Riku gets 41% or so on Sora's 'strongest' value, but there's no indication that Sora and/or Kingdom Hearts as a whole wasn't stronger in 2k5 in 2k4. Remember, most people here thought Sora was looking on the rise thanks to CoM (a few took him over Snake, Ulti had the match pegged at 50/50) before he got Solid Smashed.

And Yuna had decent strength before FFX-2. She was in 2k3, after all.
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*is Karma Hunter*
SquallidSnake | Posted 6/7/2006 12:47:45 PM | message detail
Yuna was a decent middle tier in 2003 before FFX-2 anyway. Not quite as strong as she is now, but she still had some decent strength.

I'm just saying that the stronger Squall was before 2002, the more potential Seifer has. I'm not talking about actual strength. I'm talking about what he COULD do.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
Psycho Kensou | Posted 6/7/2006 12:49:49 PM | message detail
I can't see Seifer losing to Frog, ever. You should all dismiss the thought.

-Muyo
therealmnm | Posted 6/7/2006 1:27:17 PM | message detail
It may *look* like Riku gets 41% or so on Sora's 'strongest' value, but there's no indication that Sora and/or Kingdom Hearts as a whole wasn't stronger in 2k5 in 2k4. Remember, most people here thought Sora was looking on the rise thanks to CoM (a few took him over Snake, Ulti had the match pegged at 50/50) before he got Solid Smashed.

And Yuna had decent strength before FFX-2. She was in 2k3, after all.


*sigh* Why are you determined to nitpick everything I say? I was talking about 41% on Sora's strongest x-stat value. Regardless of whether or not Riku gets 41%, 40%, 39%, or 38% or 37% on Sora, it still lends to my point that Riku is more of a favorite among the KH fanbase than Seifer is among the FFVIII fanbase.

I'm very well aware about Yuna's strength in 2k3. I was responding to Leonhart using the strength of other Final Fantasy characters to suggest that Seifer could have strength. I was using those as examples in showing that those characters have their individual reasons of why they are popular, so I don't agree with the reasoning that other FF characters are popular so Seifer could end up being popular as well. Seifer doesn't play near the role in his game as the other characters we've mention play in theirs, so he also has reasons why he could be weaker than those characters as well.

And for the record, I already stated that Seifer will probably end up right below SC2k5 Riku ranks, which is about the same level as 2k3 Yuna. I definitely don't think that pre-KH2 Seifer is a strong as 2k3 Yuna, and I definitely don't think that Seifer today is as strong as Yuna is today.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
LegendaryLocke | Posted 6/7/2006 1:33:26 PM | message detail
Seifer essentially serves the same purpose and role in Final Fantasy VIII as Riku does in Kingdom Hearts, for what it's worth.
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Locke Cole--Winner of the NCAA Character Battle 2005
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Quaarma Hunter | Posted 6/7/2006 1:39:00 PM | message detail
I'm not determined to nitpick, I'm just saying that there's no way of really knowing if Riku would have been weaker in 2k4 than he was in 2k5, because there's no gauge for it. Without taking that into account, you get into a dangerous game where you can look at things like Bowser/Seph 2k5 and Mario/Seph 2k3 and come to the conclusion that Bowser > Mario. It wasn't that, as Mario/Seph 2k5 tells us, but that Mario raised along with Bowser.

So there's really no way to tell. What if Sora is really much much closer to Spring 2k5 Ganondorf, as one might infer from their matches with Alucard? Riku doesn't look nearly as impressive then, at least from a comparative standpoint.
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*is Karma Hunter*