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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 286

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ApplesauceSign | Posted 6/2/2006 7:29:12 PM | message detail

Also, to actually be serious, the earliest we'll see a bracket for this is Monday, and I don't see brackets being up for less than a week, so lets be generous and say this contest starts on 6/12. 31 days later we have 7/13, take off at least 3 weeks in between the contests and whatnot, as it usually takes a while to get winners and whatnot sorted out for prizes, and Ceej has never run contests that close together, and I see no reason for him to start now. The absolute earliest I see nominations going up are the second week of august, which means at least one week for noms, and at least one week for predicting. That leaves us at the end of August for the contest to actually get underway, and this is all best case scenario, IMO.

I see the actual contest starting around September 1st, maybe a little later.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/2/2006 7:32:02 PM | message detail

I personally wouldn't be too shocked if we got less than two weeks to predict this current bracket. I could see a week to do it being fine. But, anyway, he could start the character battle nominations the week of the 26th in July, then put the bracket up on August 1st, and have the prediction run two weeks, which would have it start toward the middle of August.

If he puts up nominations on the week of the 26th, that gives him about a week off in between contests. Putting up nominations as quickly as possible would be best too. It isn't like he has to do much just to give us nominations and about a week to do them.

This is all leading to Twilight Princess's release, but it's looking like the first or second week of November. I really doubt we'll be seeing the contest run that long.

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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Some bloodlines must come to an end.

trannyscience | Posted 6/2/2006 7:33:53 PM | message detail

we only got two weeks? it felt like two months.
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xyzzy

LessThan3Presea | Posted 6/2/2006 7:35:56 PM | message detail

Ceej surprised a lot of people last year by starting the contest in mid-July last year instead of on August 1st, like some people were anticipating. He DID shorten the prediction period.
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"A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul

Slowflake | Posted 6/2/2006 7:43:58 PM | message detail

Hey, last year I called it for Link and got it right. I've learned to not listed to HM's delusional ramblings.

In all seriousness, we all know this is the last chance we have of ever seeing Link lose a match. I just doubt Cloud will seize it. He's got a nifty margin to make up, for starters... and TP's hype has been so huge since day one I can't expect anything else but support for Link to go on a crescendo in the weeks leading up to its release.
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Also, eat from garbage cans as much as possible, because nobody in America ever throws away anything that can make you fat. -MYC health tip

LessThan3Presea | Posted 6/2/2006 7:44:55 PM | message detail

Mario had an even larger margin to overcome against Crono last year, and he did it.

Cloud arguably had a larger gap to cover between 2002 and 2003, and he did it.
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"A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul

ApplesauceSign | Posted 6/2/2006 7:45:24 PM | message detail

I don't buy into the hype factor at all... unless it's something like a couple weeks away and being marketed to all hell. And in this case, that is likely going to happen.

God damn you Ceej.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

Slowflake | Posted 6/2/2006 7:46:29 PM | message detail

True. I guess it all comes down to whether the demographic change since last year was important enough. We'll have to pay special attention to the first two rounds this year.
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Also, eat from garbage cans as much as possible, because nobody in America ever throws away anything that can make you fat. -MYC health tip

Slowflake | Posted 6/2/2006 7:47:18 PM | message detail

From ApplesauceSign | Posted 6/2/2006 10:45:24 PM | #307
I don't buy into the hype factor at all... unless it's something like a couple weeks away and being marketed to all hell. And in this case, that is likely going to happen.

God damn you Ceej.

That's my philosophy.

Random thought... was SMS marketed to all hell? I still can't believe Mario got away with that one.
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Also, eat from garbage cans as much as possible, because nobody in America ever throws away anything that can make you fat. -MYC health tip

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/2/2006 7:47:35 PM | message detail

Quite a margin? We're talking about 2.44%. He can't make that up with Kingdom Hearts II, Advent Children, Dirge of Cerberus, and the added help of the Square fans that will be brought to the site thanks to Final Fantasy XII releasing in October? I'm the delusional one?

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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Some bloodlines must come to an end.

Slowflake | Posted 6/2/2006 7:49:17 PM | message detail

I'm not referring to that particular choice, but your history as a whole. The only time you ever came off as the genius was Megaman/Tidus.
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Also, eat from garbage cans as much as possible, because nobody in America ever throws away anything that can make you fat. -MYC health tip

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/2/2006 7:50:34 PM | message detail

I was the one who called for Vincent to win the Devil Division. I did say Mario was going to beat Samus. The only time I was overly delusional was thinking Mega Man was going to beat Tidus. Everything else has been completely within reason.

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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Some bloodlines must come to an end.

LessThan3Presea | Posted 6/2/2006 7:51:11 PM | message detail

Well, Super Mario Sunshine was the first major Mario platformer released in 6 years, so yeah, it was a big deal.
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"A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/2/2006 7:51:25 PM | message detail

Err, Mega Man was going to beat Link. Whoops.

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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Some bloodlines must come to an end.

Slowflake | Posted 6/2/2006 7:52:51 PM | message detail

Whoa there, calm down.

Note to self: Don't play mind games with HM ever again. He's a Bob-Omb waiting to blow a gigantic crater of 0s and 1s in the middle of the board.
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Also, eat from garbage cans as much as possible, because nobody in America ever throws away anything that can make you fat. -MYC health tip

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/2/2006 7:56:13 PM | message detail

I wasn't exactly ... angry or anything. I was just saying that I don't really say anything delusional.

And I don't believe in hype doing anything, even weeks before release. Final Fantasy XII is coming around during those weeks before release, which is going to take away the complete focus on Twilight Princess. That game is just widely anticipated as well. People aren't calling it the best Final Fantasy since FFVII for no reason ...

(Yes, I know it doesn't have to do with Cloud, but it does help that there will be a definite influx of Square fans so close to the match.)

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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Some bloodlines must come to an end.

ApplesauceSign | Posted 6/2/2006 7:57:36 PM | message detail

Slowflake | Posted 6/2/2006 7:58:13 PM | message detail

And for the record, Mario and Vincent weren't underdogs of the "hopeless" variety based on board picks. Vincent was even the "next best choice" after Magus.

Now, there are plenty of things we know now that we had no idea about in the second round of SC2K4.
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Also, eat from garbage cans as much as possible, because nobody in America ever throws away anything that can make you fat. -MYC health tip

LessThan3Presea | Posted 6/2/2006 7:59:17 PM | message detail

Honestly, this game was a flop and got nearly no attention, or so is my experience. I'll admit I don't have any sales numbers, and as you're the guy to go to for 'em, would you happen to have any?

Huh? The game won't even release here until late August (contest time!).
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"A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul

LessThan3Presea | Posted 6/2/2006 8:00:02 PM | message detail

Yeah, Squall was a better underdog pick...
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"A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul

ApplesauceSign | Posted 6/2/2006 8:01:17 PM | message detail

Huh? The game won't even release here until late August (contest time!).

That could explain things! I remember HM talking about the game here, so I just assumed it was released in NA. Anyway, how did it do in Japan sales wise? I know the reviews were lukewarm.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.

therealmnm | Posted 6/2/2006 8:02:46 PM | message detail

I was the one who called for Vincent to win the Devil Division.

One out of many, don't forget that. =P And yes, Cloud could beat Link based off of Advent Children, KH2, Dirge of Cerberus, and everything else. But that doesn't mean he's going to. It may be only 2.44%, but that's 2.44% against the most popular character on this site, no easy accomplishment.

As for Crono doing it against Mario, I've always thought that it was the result of a collective effort for Crono to get over the hump after all the drama in the first two Mario/Crono matches. People were tired of it. We were tired of it. Involved voters were tired of it. I think people got Crono his win and were done with it. It gave a lot of people (including myself) false reasoning that Mario was exposed, and the talk of Sonic > Mario among others began.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: KH2, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC (wow, my PS2 is actually getting play!)

Slowflake | Posted 6/2/2006 8:03:21 PM | message detail

After Magus' loss, I gave the division to Vincent straight away. I'll admit I got goosebumps when I saw Dante get so close, and as a result Vincent/Squall was every bit the match it was shaping up to be after their respective second round matches. Gave me the sum total of zero bracket points, but at least I didn't need to go all over the place and still get it wrong.
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Also, eat from garbage cans as much as possible, because nobody in America ever throws away anything that can make you fat. -MYC health tip

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/2/2006 8:08:10 PM | message detail

Dirge of Cerberus - Yeah, and let's talk about how much of a boost Jay Solano gets from a Zelda release, I'm willing to bet around the same. Honestly, this game was a flop and got nearly no attention, or so is my experience. I'll admit I don't have any sales numbers, and as you're the guy to go to for 'em, would you happen to have any?

The game sold around 500,000 copies in Japan, which is not terrible by any means, but it's nothing earthshaking. That said, this does not really do anything on its own, but it just contributes to the constant Square releases that are coming out between now and the day that Cloud faces Link. The major problem in recent years has been Square's inability to counter the constant releases of Nintendo products. 2003 was the last time that Square was really able to keep up with Nintendo. People are really underestimating what Square releases are going to do as a whole. Again, this is the first year since 2003 that something notable has released from them.

Also, Square Enix is completely redoing portions of the game for the American release. They know it received average scores in Japan and poor impressions from American critics, so they're fixing those issues for the US release. They're adding extra features, adjusting the gameplay, and the like. GameSpot said it would be an entirely different game once it released here.

Advent Children - Most of the people who were hardcore enough into FF7 to want to see this already saw it before the close of the last contest, just because it is now available on DVD, I seriously doubt it will do anything extra that we haven't seen (if it ever did anything to begin with), it's not as if it was marketed at all in the US.

... What? There were commercials everywhere for Advent Children -- ESPN, ABC, FOX, Comedy Central, MTV, etc. all had commercials that would appear constantly before, during, and slightly after the release of the movie. On top of that, retailers reported selling out their initial shipments on the day of release. It was not just a minor thing at all. To add to the marketing, it appeared in a number of gaming magazines including GamePro, PlayStation Magazine, and Electronic Gaming Monthly.

We saw polls with people saying they have seen it before the release, but it's hard to say when they saw it. The movie released really close to the end of the contest and there was plenty of time to see it through torrent after the contest was over but before release. The actual US release was huge and it was given high review scores as an actual DVD. On top of that, we saw Final Fantasy VII rise in the FAQ listing all the way to the Top 10 (reaching Top 5) and Advent Children actually hit the Top 10 as well during its release. There was an impact on GameFAQs. It's silly to downplay it.

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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Some bloodlines must come to an end.

TransgenderLove | Posted 6/2/2006 8:12:06 PM | message detail

I'll concede the Dirge point, but I still don't think it'll be big, but it sure can't hurt.

... What? There were commercials everywhere for Advent Children -- ESPN, ABC, FOX, Comedy Central, MTV, etc. all had commercials that would appear constantly before, during, and slightly after the release of the movie. On top of that, retailers reported selling out their initial shipments on the day of release. It was not just a minor thing at all. To add to the marketing, it appeared in a number of gaming magazines including GamePro, PlayStation Magazine, and Electronic Gaming Monthly.

I find that amazingly hard to believe, as I'm almost always watching T.V and I can't recall seeing any commercials for it, I'm not saying you're making this up, but possibly exaggerating how often they were shown. That or the commercials where region specific. I'll take your word for it in the magazines though, as I don't read any of them.

Regardless, I completely agree with you that we will see Square as a whole, as a much stronger force this year.

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Cheer Up Trannys.

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/2/2006 8:14:15 PM | message detail

One out of many, don't forget that. =P And yes, Cloud could beat Link based off of Advent Children, KH2, Dirge of Cerberus, and everything else. But that doesn't mean he's going to. It may be only 2.44%, but that's 2.44% against the most popular character on this site, no easy accomplishment.

I'm not saying I was the only one who picked Vincent, but I argued like no other both in this topic and on the board about how Vincent was going to win. I don't know how many "But he's optional" arguments I had to listen to over the course of that contest. I only wish Magus had beaten Knuckles so that my other prediction (Leonhart had this one, too!) of Squall over Magus would've come true.

And I think it's just ridiculous to give Link the advantage with all of that. Perhaps it is because we have not seen Square release something notable in a while and are too used to Nintendo "dominance," but all of that together should be more than enough to secure Cloud a victory. It is baffling to see people actually saying that all of those things would not be enough for Cloud to win the match. Tch, I remember when Advent Children was able to go up against Twilight Princess in this topic. Now Advent Children, Kingdom Hearts II, and Dirge of Cerberus apparently still can't do the job.

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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Some bloodlines must come to an end.

Slowflake | Posted 6/2/2006 8:14:58 PM | message detail

Heh, you're getting me scared there. But there's no worry that I'll steal your Cloud Song (hehe i made a funnay), because I'm not filling brackets anymore. I just think Link will still edge it out.
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Also, eat from garbage cans as much as possible, because nobody in America ever throws away anything that can make you fat. -MYC health tip

therealmnm | Posted 6/2/2006 8:15:25 PM | message detail

The commercials were airing on big networks. I remember shooting pool while watching the basketball games and hearing One Winged Angel start playing on the television. Advent Children got considerable exposure from what I've seen.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: KH2, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC (wow, my PS2 is actually getting play!)

Lopen | Posted 6/2/2006 8:16:55 PM | message detail

AC had its share of ads.

But as for me, I'm not seeing AC doing as much as it's being made out to be, especially for non-Cloud characters, (pointless, because we're talking about Cloud) as they hardly did a thing in the movie. Kingdom Hearts 2 should help more, methinks. And either way, I Cloud still has a chance to take Link just through random voting variation.
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244

TransgenderLove | Posted 6/2/2006 8:18:05 PM | message detail

Well, regardless of the marketing, I'm still not buying AC doing anything for Cloud, not that it's really necessary for him to accomplish what we're talking about with all the other things he has.

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Cheer Up Trannys.

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/2/2006 8:18:41 PM | message detail

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/2/2006 8:19:13 PM | message detail

And although they're more minor, Final Fantasy VI Advance, Final Fantasy V Advance, and Final Fantasy III DS (the remake) all release during the month of September. Then you have Final Fantasy XII releasing in October. Dirge of Cerberus hits here in August. Square is going all out at the end of this generation.

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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Some bloodlines must come to an end.

LessThan3Presea | Posted 6/2/2006 8:19:36 PM | message detail

I think AC COULD help Tifa and Sephiroth in addition to Cloud, as they were the only other two characters who had any role of note and were involved in the two best fight scenes.
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"A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul

TransgenderLove | Posted 6/2/2006 8:20:51 PM | message detail

Depending on when lockdown of the brackets are, it's going to probably decide who I pick as my champ.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Trannys.

Slowflake | Posted 6/2/2006 8:21:07 PM | message detail

Hold on a sec... we're talking characters here, right? It's as if we didn't care anymore for the upcoming contest. Good job, Ceej.
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Also, eat from garbage cans as much as possible, because nobody in America ever throws away anything that can make you fat. -MYC health tip

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/2/2006 8:21:54 PM | message detail

Sephiroth, Tifa, and Vincent should get something of a boost from Advent Children. They are generally the characters that get talked about outside of Cloud. Sephiroth, in particular, was in the best fight scene in the movie.

Well, regardless of the marketing, I'm still not buying AC doing anything for Cloud,

I don't see why not. I'm not sure there was one person who came away disappointed with Cloud from that movie. He was made to be a badass in it. People here actually liked Cloud more than they did FFVII, primarily because of Cloud during the fights. It helps that the movie focused entirely around him.

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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Some bloodlines must come to an end.

NewLib | Posted 6/2/2006 8:23:26 PM | message detail

I dont know if I should follow you again HM. I followed your logic for Cloud in 2005 even after Megacastrophe and you failed me. ;_;
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Where am I?

therealmnm | Posted 6/2/2006 8:25:04 PM | message detail

I think what a game/movie does as far as demographic shifts go is far more important than what a character actually does in said game/movie. As long as Square fans frequent the site, all Square characters can potentially benefit from it. I think a lot of time, this topic seems to think that the only way a character can get a boost is if they play a significant role in the big releases.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: KH2, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC (wow, my PS2 is actually getting play!)

Slowflake | Posted 6/2/2006 8:25:10 PM | message detail

Funny, I'm in the same boat. The only time I went and picked against Link he opened me up and used my bowels as Christmas tree decorations. Now I'm scarred for life :(
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Also, eat from garbage cans as much as possible, because nobody in America ever throws away anything that can make you fat. -MYC health tip

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/2/2006 8:25:11 PM | message detail

Hey, I went with Cloud because I still believed that Square was going to meet the simultaneous release of Advent Children in both Japan and America. It wasn't until around the beginning of September that they actually said it was delayed, I recall.

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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Some bloodlines must come to an end.

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/2/2006 8:28:01 PM | message detail

It is worth looking at what Link has to benefit him when trying to decide who to take. At this point, we're looking at hype against everything that's been said.

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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Some bloodlines must come to an end.

Lopen | Posted 6/2/2006 8:28:14 PM | message detail

Movies don't have FAQs, there's no reason it should cause a significant "voting shift". Unless you're implying people will be replaying FFVII because of it... and even then, I doubt the replayers will be using FAQs often.
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/2/2006 8:28:43 PM | message detail

Movies don't have FAQs? My Movie Script says differently!!

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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Some bloodlines must come to an end.

TransgenderLove | Posted 6/2/2006 8:29:05 PM | message detail

Not just FAQ's but overall discussion of the game too.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Trannys.

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 6/2/2006 8:30:29 PM | message detail

http://db.gamefaqs.com/portable/psp/file/final_fantasy_vii_ac_script.txt

It has received 4,000 hits since I put it up, too! Huzzah.

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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Some bloodlines must come to an end.

therealmnm | Posted 6/2/2006 8:34:47 PM | message detail

People do come on GameFAQs for more than just FAQs you know. There's a reason why the FFVII board got a lot of activity after Advent Children released. People came on the site to discuss the movie. It's the same reason why the SSBB board is getting just as much activity as the KH2 board. People come on the site to discuss gaming. Of course, it doesn't counter actually having FAQs, but you have to say that things outside of actual game releases can have some significance.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: KH2, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC (wow, my PS2 is actually getting play!)

LegendarySnake | Posted 6/2/2006 8:40:01 PM | message detail

Hmmm...I have a bad tendency of not picking the overall winner, so perhaps I will go with Link this year...
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I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake!

Lopen | Posted 6/2/2006 8:42:47 PM | message detail

The question is, are they being drawn to the site to discuss it, or are they being drawn to the forums from the site to discuss it? I'd put my money on most surges in FF VII board activity being caused from people who regularly come here that are suddenly more compelled to post there, that's all.
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244

Kaxon | Posted 6/2/2006 10:14:05 PM | message detail

In all seriousness, we all know this is the last chance we have of ever seeing Link lose a match. I just doubt Cloud will seize it. He's got a nifty margin to make up, for starters... and TP's hype has been so huge since day one I can't expect anything else but support for Link to go on a crescendo in the weeks leading up to its release.

If anything, I think the hype right now is lower than it has been for the past two years. People have gotten tired of waiting for TP, now the excitement's about Wii and SSBB. Combine that with no Zelda games in the past year and I could easily see Link dropping by a percent or two.
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6

LeonhartForever | Posted 6/2/2006 10:14:15 PM | message detail

You know, I'm beginning to believe that CJayC having that sig when he posted the bracket was not an accident.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden

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