Summer 2005 Contest
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 280
This Topic has been marked closed. No additional messages may be posted.
| NewLib | Posted 4/4/2006 1:29:57 PM | message detail |
| Looking more and more like no Spring contest. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/4/2006 3:36:50 PM | message detail |
|
I'm not worried. --- Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 |
| charmander6000 | Posted 4/4/2006 3:47:31 PM | message detail |
|
Give it till Friday --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| Sir Auron | Posted 4/4/2006 3:48:33 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| Sir Auron | Posted 4/4/2006 3:49:21 PM | message detail |
|
I'll hold out hope for the rest of the week. Anything past that and I'm
pretty much going to give up on the idea of having one. He started the
villain contest nominations on April 7th last year, I believe. That
would be this Friday, so anything beyond that and the chances of having
one would seem very slim. --- "This is my story -- and you're not apart of it." -- Auron |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/4/2006 4:17:27 PM | message detail |
|
Ya know, there very well may not be a spring contest -- if CJay feels
like the ToC is a good idea, why would he add another champion to the
list when Mario couldn't get 45% on Sephiroth? Practically all of our
sentiment last year was that the VC was made for the sole sake of
giving Sephiroth a championship...but nobody else really deserves some
gold or in the ToC like Clinkeroth does (I maintain Mario doesn't count
as a champ). I still think we're going to have something though. --- Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 |
| SephirothG | Posted 4/4/2006 4:18:29 PM | message detail |
|
Who says the Spring champ will be retired? --- Got a nomination rally/drive/army/crusade? Post it here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585012 |
| Who Cares? | Posted 4/4/2006 5:56:09 PM | message detail |
| Indeed, the contest doesn't have to have an ulterior motive like retirement and whatnot, just give us a contest for the sake of giving us a contest and ending the boredom. |
| Applause Sign | Posted 4/4/2006 5:56:51 PM | message detail |
|
Because if he likes the idea of the ToC, it's ridonkulous to think only
certain winners will be moved to the ToC. But meh, even if that's so, I
wouldn't mind seeing a games contest. And for the record, nominations opened on April 5th. The topic on MBA was made 2 days later by Ceej. --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| Big Bob | Posted 4/4/2006 6:02:15 PM | message detail |
|
It'd be pointless to let Mario back into the field with NSMB right
around the corner. Then again, I think Samus is guaranteed to win it
now with MPH up her sleeve. So if we had a female contest that Samus
won, that would just leave Crono, Mega Man, Sonic, and Snake to fend
each other off for the championship title, and that'd be hard to
predict. --- Currently Playing: Tetris DS, Metroid Prime Hunters WHAT ARE WE DOING TO PIGS? |
| Applause Sign | Posted 4/4/2006 6:03:49 PM | message detail |
|
...and then that winner would be retired. I hate the idea of everyone and their grandmother in the ToC. --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| Kaxon | Posted 4/4/2006 6:20:49 PM | message detail |
|
I would hate to see Samus retired considering that she got absolutely
demolished by Mario. That kind of performance doesn't exactly say
"needs to be retired" to me. --- Nominate Aeris for SC2k6 http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=26571751 |
| Kaxon | Posted 4/4/2006 6:25:52 PM | message detail |
|
Oh, and assuming Mario's a lock to repeat because of NSMB seems foolish
to me. We never know for sure which way the trends will go, and his
3.5% margin is far from insurmountable. Every year so far there's been
a trend we didn't see coming. --- Nominate Aeris for SC2k6 http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=26571751 |
| Buy A Dreamcast | Posted 4/4/2006 6:41:35 PM | message detail |
|
And for the record, nominations opened on April 5th. The topic on MBA was made 2 days later by Ceej. Oh yeah, I do remember that. So, in theory, tomorrow could be the day. It seems perfect. It's a Wednesday, and it's April 5th to boot. --- MasterMage119/Adept of Aiur |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/4/2006 6:42:02 PM | message detail |
|
2k4 had a trend we didn't see coming? Maybe the lack of ninja-visitors count for some people as a new trend, but not I. I still stand by my idea of a complete gauntlet for the next character battle, or at least have the strongest of them or the ten most nominated have a small gauntlet after the main bracket. --- Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 |
| Buy A Dreamcast | Posted 4/4/2006 6:43:25 PM | message detail |
|
Oh, and assuming Mario's a lock to repeat because of NSMB seems
foolish to me. We never know for sure which way the trends will go, and
his 3.5% margin is far from insurmountable. Every year so far there's
been a trend we didn't see coming. Even with KH2, I can't see anyone in the field beating Mario. Nintendo and Square are the big players, and who in the Noble Nine would have a shot anyway? Obviously not Samus (even if Samus gets far stronger, I can't imagine SFF will ever go her way in that match), and Crono, despite probably being helped by KH2 bringing Square fans, would likely be offset by NSMB enough to guarantee Mario the win. --- MasterMage119/Adept of Aiur |
| Buy A Dreamcast | Posted 4/4/2006 6:44:20 PM | message detail |
|
Oh yeah, and HaRRicH makes an excellent point. The biggest surprise
trend evident in 2K4 was... um... I guess Microsoft's day vote...? --- MasterMage119/Adept of Aiur |
| Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/4/2006 9:05:01 PM | message detail |
|
The Spring 2005 Contest nominations opened on April 4th, 2005 9:05pm
PDT. That's now exactly 1 year ago and we still have no news of a
Spring 2006 Contest. ;_; --- "Why did I become a lawyer in the first place...? Because someone has to look out for the people who have no one on their side." ~Phoenix Wright |
| Big Bob | Posted 4/4/2006 9:11:44 PM | message detail |
|
A gauntlet would discourage future contests and leave little debate. It's a guaranteed Xstats. --- Currently Playing: Tetris DS, Metroid Prime Hunters WHAT ARE WE DOING TO PIGS? |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/4/2006 9:48:42 PM | message detail |
|
Not if you slip in some SFF matches, it's not. Give us some debatable
matches that may or may not have some SFF. Zidane/Kefka, Tidus/Magus,
Shadow/Knuckles, Sora/Vincent/Tifa, and others could realistically
happen as well as keep many of us stat-followers in trouble and
guessing for the off-season about how the others under them would match
up...oh, and a guantlet would likely feature both Mario/Samus and
Cloud/Sephiroth as well (unless the ordering went
Samus-Seph-Mario/Link-Link/Mario-Cloud), too, so that'd be THAT much
more guesswork to do (although they wouldn't affect the breaks within
the main part of the gauntlet). --- Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 4/4/2006 9:51:18 PM | message detail |
|
I'm with Kaxon here; even 2004 featured some unexpected trends. I
didn't see Cloud going from putting up 51.61% on Link and Mario putting
up 50.05% on Crono to Link reversing that result with 51.82% and Crono
reversing with 53.24%.
I didn't see CT taking such an upswing that Crono could destroy Mario
in that fashion and Frog could hang tough with Master Chief. And to be fair, we probably could have seen even more interesting trends that year, if they hadn't been snuffed out by massive SFF setups. --- "lol x-stats" - The Contest Simulator: http://thengamer.com/xstats Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/4/2006 9:55:36 PM | message detail |
|
I didn't see Cloud going from putting up 51.61% on Link and Mario
putting up 50.05% on Crono to Link reversing that result with 51.82%
and Crono reversing with 53.24%. I didn't see CT taking such an upswing
that Crono could destroy Mario in that fashion and Frog could hang
tough with Master Chief. Maybe not you, but the BOP supports Crono > Mario and Link > Cloud if memory serves me right. I'll give you Frog/MC, but one great match isn't really a trend so much as an over-estimation...or an under-estimation, depending on how you feel about Frog/Solid I suppose. And to be fair, we probably could have seen even more interesting trends that year, if they hadn't been snuffed out by massive SFF setups. Point taken, though I still don't think there was so much to see that year trend-wise. --- Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 4/4/2006 10:27:45 PM | message detail |
|
Yeah, I remember the BOP swinging that way, but my point was more that
in 3 of 4 cases the results went from not-even-all-that-close in one
direction to not-even-all-that-close in the other, which was pretty
surprising to me. I came in expecting KH to have worn off enough for
Link to have a fighting chance, but all of a sudden the polls where up
and Cloud was never even in that match. Same for Mario, only moreso. --- "lol x-stats" - The Contest Simulator: http://thengamer.com/xstats Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ |
| Kaxon | Posted 4/4/2006 10:37:04 PM | message detail |
|
2k4 had a trend we didn't see coming? Maybe the lack of ninja-visitors count for some people as a new trend, but not I. Maybe not a trend, but it had shifts among the top characters. As Ngamer pointed out, Crono gained 3.29% against Mario, Link gained 3.43% against Cloud, and it's not like we knew those things were going to happen beforehand. A shift slightly larger than that would be enough to topple Mario - and any shift as large as what we saw in 2k3 or 2k5 would definitely be enough to topple Mario. Also, what the important factors may be is also not necessarily predictable before the contest. Before 2k5, most people thought the biggest factors would would be Halo 2 and the AC release. So we can guess what effect KH2 and NSMB will have, but we definitely don't know Mario will maintain his lead. Basically, my point is that Mario isn't far enough ahead that he's guaranteed to win, the way Cloud and Link pretty much are. --- Nominate Aeris for SC2k6 http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=26571751 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 4/4/2006 11:08:25 PM | message detail |
| I can't really agree with Frog 'hanging tough' with MC as being indicative of *any* CT upswing from the perspective of the 2k4 board...Frog was expected to blow past Liquid and MC with ease. Solid/Frog was the thing that gave faith in Frog's strength, and that turned out to be a mere fluke. |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 4/5/2006 11:13:45 AM | message detail |
|
Speaking of games, here's how yesterday's LL poll turned out. Favorite Mario Kart? Super Mario Kart (SNES) 21.07% 389 Mario Kart 64 (N64) 46.86% 865 Mario Kart: Super Circuit (GBA) 1.57% 29 Mario Kart: Double Dash!! (GC) 8.50% 157 Mario Kart DS (DS) 15.82% 292 Mario Kart Arcade GP (Arcade) 0.54% 10 Never played/don't like Mario Kart 5.63% 104 TOTAL VOTES 1846 Granted, LUE's Nintendo bias has generally swung in the N64 direction, aside from a few standouts like Mario World and Melee, but still, I'd be willing to bet the results would be much the same if this poll were held on GameFAQs. --- "lol x-stats" - The Contest Simulator: http://thengamer.com/xstats Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ |
| metoolfan | Posted 4/5/2006 11:25:05 AM | message detail |
|
I would hate to see Samus retired considering that she got
absolutely demolished by Mario. That kind of performance doesn't
exactly say "needs to be retired" to me. ...That was completely down to SFF! Remove SFF from that match and you've got something between 48 and 52% for Samus at least. Even though it's impossible to "remove" SFF, since most of it is subconscious, but you see what I mean. --- So... |
| Haste2 | Posted 4/5/2006 11:31:36 AM | message detail |
|
LL poll? What is that? Oh, don't tell me accounts with access to LUE
get more privileges than just visiting LUE...agh, because I could care
less about the board. Anyway, I'm surprised that MK:DD did so poorly, despite being the most recent (and arguably the best) console MK. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| TheCruelAngel | Posted 4/5/2006 11:39:17 AM | message detail |
|
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/2/2006 11:38:50 PM | Message Detail Link versus Final Fantasy 7! If Link managed to win that, I'd never stop laughing. Quite a bit late but, damn, that would be the most hilarious thing ever. --- Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!? Squall: ...Flower. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/5/2006 11:51:12 AM | message detail |
|
I'm a believer that MK64's the most popular...but the only ideas of
strength we've ever seen for the whole series (to my knowledge) have
been the following polls: MK:DS http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2243 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2253 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2254 MK:DD!! http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1486 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1491 MK:SC http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=774 SMK: http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/top10/top10_100.html (#61, only MK game on the drop-down list) I don't think we've ever had a good look at the potential damage they could cause outside of those, and having NOTHING on MK64 doesn't help any either. Call it faith, I suppose..... --- Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/5/2006 11:56:05 AM | message detail |
|
I would also like to point out two of the polls I just posted for a second again: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=774 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1486 Earthbound could have outdone the two F-Zero games combined in either poll. --- Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/5/2006 11:57:57 AM | message detail |
|
Last, to actually comment on Ngamer's post: I figure the percentages
would not be quite like that...but I think that same hierarchy exists.
Good find, glad you posted it. --- Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 |
| Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/5/2006 12:04:44 PM | message detail |
|
LL poll? What is that? Oh, don't tell me accounts with access to LUE
get more privileges than just visiting LUE...agh, because I could care
less about the board. LL = LUELinks. It's a GameFAQs spinoff board that is more or less only open to users who have a LUE accessiable account. --- "Why did I become a lawyer in the first place...? Because someone has to look out for the people who have no one on their side." ~Phoenix Wright |
| therealmnm | Posted 4/5/2006 12:12:09 PM | message detail |
|
I would almost guarantee that MK64 is the most popular Mario Kart game.
First of all, it came out during the early N64 period when releases of any game were few. Being the first big Nintendo release after Super Mario 64, it sold in bunches. Second, a good percentage of the current demographic started off started off in the N64 era, so MK64 was the first Mario Kart that many of them played. People tend to hold on to the game they started out with more, especially when there's not a clear cut favorite among games (i.e. Super Mario Bros. 3 being an improvement and much more popular than Super Mario Bros). So although people may like the sequels a lot, they might not hold on to them as strong as their fav. Since there still are a good amount of older gamers on the site, SMK still has a good number of fans. --- Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6 Currently playing: KH2, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC (wow, my PS2 is actually getting play!) |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 4/5/2006 12:12:49 PM | message detail |
|
"Earthbound could have outdone the two F-Zero games combined in either poll." The faith people have in Captain Falcon is amusing, isn't it? --- Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris Detective in Sir Chris' Police |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/5/2006 12:18:17 PM | message detail |
|
Just to add onto what therealmnm said, I'm going to add something
personal that others may not necessarily agree with: I've only played
SMK, MK64, and MK:DD!! (in that order)...but MK64 outclasses them both
to me with ease. I don't know where MK:DS would stand, but it would
have to be damn good to thrust MK64 to second for me. --- Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 |
| therealmnm | Posted 4/5/2006 12:22:18 PM | message detail |
|
"Earthbound could have outdone the two F-Zero games combined in either poll." You shouldn't be judging how strong Captain Falcon would be based on any F-Zero games anyway. 99% of his popularity comes from Super Smash Bros. and Super Smash Brosh. Melee, and everyone knows this. And those games are more than popular enough for him to potentially have decent contest strength. The question that's debatable is how popular is he in those games... I still say he can beat Tommy Vercetti in a match, although that's the highest I think he can be. --- Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6 Currently playing: KH2, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC (wow, my PS2 is actually getting play!) |
| therealmnm | Posted 4/5/2006 12:27:05 PM | message detail |
|
Just to add onto what therealmnm said, I'm going to add something
personal that others may not necessarily agree with: I've only played
SMK, MK64, and MK:DD!! (in that order)...but MK64 outclasses them both
to me with ease. I don't know where MK:DS would stand, but it would
have to be damn good to thrust MK64 to second for me Sorry HaRRicH, as big a fan as I am of Mario Kart 64 I have to disagree. After mastering Mario Kart DS, I played MK64 soon after and found it borderline unplayable. I finally saw what everyone else was talking about with that game. It was pretty much strictly nostalgia that made me like it so much. Mario Kart DS trumps it in nearly everyway. The only thing that MK64 has over it is Yoshi Valley. Mario Kart DS is damn good! --- Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6 Currently playing: KH2, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC (wow, my PS2 is actually getting play!) |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/5/2006 12:41:43 PM | message detail |
|
Then this means only one thing: rom-hunt. --- Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 |
| Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 4/5/2006 12:43:12 PM | message detail |
|
I couldn't imagine any other Mario Kart game being stronger than Mario Kart 64 either. --- "Outside the dream world, life can be harsh -- even cruel. But it is life." -- Auron |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/5/2006 1:19:35 PM | message detail |
|
One more thing I just now noticed at a glance: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1486 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1491 Check out PoP:SoT in those two polls and tell me that's not a lil' unusual. --- Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 |
| Nominate_Tails | Posted 4/5/2006 1:50:57 PM | message detail |
|
Check out PoP:SoT in those two polls and tell me that's not a lil' unusual. OMG WTF? PoP FTW! --- Neonreaper: if you guys are as cool as you like to pretend you are, you wouldn't be posting here |
| yoshifan823 | Posted 4/5/2006 1:53:10 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator] |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 4/5/2006 1:56:31 PM | message detail |
|
"99% of his popularity comes from Super Smash Bros. and Super Smash Brosh. Melee, and everyone knows this." Which is far more than Ness takes from SSB/M, who Falcon is supposedly strong enough to beat (according to many board denizens). lol. --- Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris Detective in Sir Chris' Police |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 4/5/2006 1:59:46 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/5/2006 2:01:41 PM | message detail |
|
I was meaning it at more of a Ness>CF point than a CF-is-weak point.
I would probably give him the benefit of the doubt and say his max is
20% (closer to 19% though). He wouldn't be bad or anything, I just
don't see him doing much better than that. --- Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 4/5/2006 2:02:11 PM | message detail |
|
There's no "FTW" there. A grand total of about 3000 people on this site give a crap about PoP. Yay. --- Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris Detective in Sir Chris' Police |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 4/5/2006 2:07:15 PM | message detail |
|
"I was meaning it at more of a Ness>CF" Jesus Christ, people.... Harrich, I knew what you meant, I'm only pointing out that MOST people around here consider Ness to be a bit of a scrub as it is, and CF doesn't look like he even has a shot at beating Ness. If he's at best toe-to-toe with Ness (and there's not a damn thing to suggest otherwise, except some dellusional people who think SSBM players give two ****s about Falcon but some reason they don't feel the same towards Ness. Let's be honest, folks, if not for SSB Falcon would lose to Ryo Hazuki. With it he might beat 2k4 Vyse. The character is a scrub, and is getting way too much support. He is, in fact, Kerrigan 2.0, and I won't mind rubbing it in people's faces when the time comes. Just hope he doesn't somehow get matched agaisnt an underated favorite of mine. --- Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris Detective in Sir Chris' Police |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/5/2006 2:09:17 PM | message detail |
|
Heh, whoa, that was aimed at therealmnm. I probably should have clarified that since I overlooked his post for a lil' while. --- Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 4/5/2006 2:15:17 PM | message detail |
|
Fair enough, then. --- Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris Detective in Sir Chris' Police |