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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 278
From: Kaxon | Posted: 3/15/2006 3:54:35 PM | Message Detail
Who would win a No-Noble nine character contest?

Clearly, it would be between Magus and Shadow the Hedgehog. </2k3>

Seriously, I think it would be pretty wide open. I would consider the contenders to be Vincent, Aeris, Tifa, Ganon, Zelda, Bowser, Kirby, Zero, and Squall. Who I picked would depend partly on bracket placement.
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=26571751
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/15/2006 4:37:13 PM | Message Detail
Don't forget Liquid Snake! </2k4>
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/15/2006 4:48:18 PM | Message Detail
What makes you people think Squall could win next year (N9 excluded) when Vincent has so much more going in his favor. Squall's one big deal will be KH2, Vincent's in that. If AC hits and/or DoC hits before the next contest he'll be rocketed up in comparison to any gain Squall gets.

BTW, I decided I want to see Yuffie in the contest. With how she's played up in DoC (relative to everyone else except Vincent) and how they are reminding people she's now a loyal teammate she probably has a chance at being pretty close to Aeris/Vincent/Tifa. Yes, I want to see yet another FF7 character in the contest.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/15/2006 4:49:09 PM | Message Detail
*cough*forgot to mention her part in KH up there*cough*
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
From: Kaxon | Posted: 3/15/2006 5:07:03 PM | Message Detail
What makes you people think Squall could win next year (N9 excluded) when Vincent has so much more going in his favor.

For me it's a combination of three things:
- How close they were last year. We just saw a poll answer lose 3% on consecutive days.
- Changes in popularity aren't predictable. Although it seems like Vincent has more to gain, that's far from a guarantee. Vincent was also new last year, and there's a chance what happened to Frog and Magus could happen to him.
- A difference of 0.59% could easily be made up just by facing the right opponents. Stats linearity is never perfect, and they won't necessarily be facing each other.
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=26571751
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/15/2006 5:11:33 PM | Message Detail
"and there's a chance what happened to Frog and Magus could happen to him."

I don't remember Frog or Magus going through multiple established characters that all fell within expectations in regards to the X-Stats. It all lined up far too well to be a coincidence and I'm not convinced that any character is magically stronger just because they are a new entry.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
From: Haste2 | Posted: 3/15/2006 5:24:48 PM | Message Detail
We just saw a poll answer lose 3% on consecutive days.

Whoa...hold on there...that doesn't mean anything. Compare the two questons...

"What was the first Final Fantasy game you ever played?" - 10.59% = Never played one.
"How many of the standard Final Fantasy RPG games have you played?" 13.64% = none.

I can easily see why fewer of the non-FF players would answer to the 1st question. I mean, just look at the questions and their wording.

If you still can't understand...(I won't be able to explain it well)...just by the wording of the questions, the first question practically ASSUMES you played the Final Fantasy. It's kinda like doing a "What's your favorite FF character?" with a "I don't know any of those characters" option, to a lesser extent. The non-FF players would certainly be less inclined to vote in a question like that, yes?

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
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From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 3/15/2006 5:34:22 PM | Message Detail
I don't remember Frog or Magus going through multiple established characters that all fell within expectations in regards to the X-Stats.

Squall, Dante, and Knuckles are three established characters that are a large amount (3-5%) above their mostly steady 2k3/2k4 numbers.
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pi
From: Kaxon | Posted: 3/15/2006 6:30:16 PM | Message Detail
I don't remember Frog or Magus going through multiple established characters that all fell within expectations in regards to the X-Stats. It all lined up far too well to be a coincidence and I'm not convinced that any character is magically stronger just because they are a new entry.

I'm not saying he's going to drop off a cliff, but he could easily drop by 0.59% just by not being new anymore.

I can easily see why fewer of the non-FF players would answer to the 1st question. I mean, just look at the questions and their wording.

I agree with you, it was due to the wording. But if a change in wording can cause that big of a difference in the number of answers a factual response gets, I can easily see something like a picture or the opponent causing as big of a change from the expected results.
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=26571751
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 3/15/2006 6:32:30 PM | Message Detail
but he could easily drop by 0.59% just by not being new anymore.

Not really, no. This may have been the case for someone who does not have anything in their favor, but Vincent has very, very little chance of seeing even a minor drop like 0.59% this year. In all likelihood, he will see an increase.

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"I haven't invested as much time into any game as I have [Twilight Princess]." -- Shigeru Miyamoto
From: Big Bob | Posted: 3/15/2006 6:52:14 PM | Message Detail
Vincent > Snake!
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DA-DING Da-Ding da-ding-ding!
From: Kaxon | Posted: 3/15/2006 7:38:00 PM | Message Detail
Not really, no.

After the crazy things we've seen happen in this contest, you're claiming it's not possible for Vincent to drop by 0.59%? Excuse me while I disregard your comments. =P
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=26571751
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 3/15/2006 7:55:16 PM | Message Detail
You do know that Squall could've won just as easily as Vincent did, it all depends on who shows up to vote on that day.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
From: therealmnm | Posted: 3/15/2006 8:01:49 PM | Message Detail
Seeing how it was a SFF match, I don't think the result will just swing the other way. I don't think any influx of new voters or different people "showing up to vote" wouldn't sway the match as much as people would expect them to due to the nature of a SFF match.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: MMXC, Fight Night R2, Threads of Fate, Jade Empire
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 3/15/2006 8:40:05 PM | Message Detail
After the crazy things we've seen happen in this contest, you're claiming it's not possible for Vincent to drop by 0.59%? Excuse me while I disregard your comments.

Perhaps you should bother to actually read things past that particular point, hmm? If you are trying to tell me Vincent is going to drop this year, the only person whose comments should be disregarded are yours and only yours. To say such a thing when we know Square will be getting a pretty solid influx of voters this year, Advent Children, and the possibility of Dirge of Cerberus, then you either have an insane bias or you're just insane. Why in the world you even brought up dropping is quite clearly beyond me. There is no reason whatsoever to assume or even give way to the idea of Vincent dropping.

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"I haven't invested as much time into any game as I have [Twilight Princess]." -- Shigeru Miyamoto
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 3/15/2006 10:20:58 PM | Message Detail
Vincent wouldn't actually drop, it would just be random fluctuation. I believe that you've argued for Cloud being able to beat Link merely because of random fluctuation, and it certainly wouldn't take much.

As for a boost, that would be countered by Squall and KH2. Nothing to worry about there. Combine them both for a possible Squall victory.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 3/15/2006 10:24:12 PM | Message Detail
A far better argument is indeed what you just presented, which is KH2. I do believe that Vincent would still be victorious, but I'm not sure why anyone would bother bringing up any big Square character seeing a drop this year.

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"I haven't invested as much time into any game as I have [Twilight Princess]." -- Shigeru Miyamoto
From: Ed Bellis | Posted: 3/15/2006 10:25:51 PM | Message Detail
HAY GUYS I FEEL LIKE BARGING IN AND ASKING A RANDOM QUESTION

...was DK ever adjusted for SFF in 2002? If so, why not?

>_>
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This was Ed Bellis.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/15/2006 10:55:48 PM | Message Detail
Because 2k2 stats in general were never adjusted in an "official" sense. Not only was there Mario/DK, but Mario/Cloud too (and Mario/Link, maybe). There's also WDF and probably another thing or two.
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/15/2006 11:13:41 PM | Message Detail
"I'm not saying he's going to drop off a cliff, but he could easily drop by 0.59% just by not being new anymore."

I'm not sure why Vincent drops and the character extrapolated directly through him (Squall) doesn't likewise drop. We're still stuck with the fact that last year Vincent won, no matter by how narrow of a margin, and he has a lot more to gain from right now.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 3/16/2006 5:45:33 AM | Message Detail
Squall's one big deal will be KH2, Vincent's in that

...No, he's not.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Ramza, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 3/16/2006 6:05:29 AM | Message Detail
Also, it looks like KHII won comfortably, after all. Kingdom Hearts does have a good day vote.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Ramza, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/16/2006 6:44:34 AM | Message Detail
TEH KIDDIEZ!!1!
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From: Sir Crono | Posted: 3/16/2006 9:56:52 AM | Message Detail
Part of the reason stats were not adjusted in 2002 because adjustments were a foreign concept. Nobody really saw why. SFF was an unknown acronym at the time, and there's really no need to adjust them now that they're 4 years old.
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I am vastly inferior to my Chrono Cross counterpart, Serge. Therefore, you should nominate him for SC2K6 instead of me.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/16/2006 10:23:12 AM | Message Detail
Vincent got pulled from KH2? I remember him being confirmed awhile back. Well, in that case I'm going to quit playing KH1 because I no longer have interest in playing KH2.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 3/16/2006 10:57:28 AM | Message Detail
Remember that if anyone does go back and adjust the 03 stats, for fun or something, I'll plug them in as the official lol x-stats (old stats will still be used, as Raw).

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"lol x-stats" - The Contest Simulator: http://thengamer.com/xstats
Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 3/16/2006 9:15:29 PM | Message Detail
I just checked the cast for Kingdom Hearts II and Vincent's there..

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Eagerly awaiting Kingdom Hearts II & Final Fantasy XII
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 3/16/2006 9:19:09 PM | Message Detail
Or is he only in the Japanese version?

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Eagerly awaiting Kingdom Hearts II & Final Fantasy XII
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 3/16/2006 9:21:12 PM | Message Detail
He's not in the game at all.

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"I haven't invested as much time into any game as I have [Twilight Princess]." -- Shigeru Miyamoto
From: ssknuxmagician | Posted: 3/16/2006 9:22:05 PM | Message Detail
Or is he only in the Japanese version?

Why would he only be in the Japanese version?
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The Travis Porn.
From: Brainstruck | Posted: 3/16/2006 9:22:06 PM | Message Detail
Vincent was never in Kingdom Hearts II, anywhere.
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You don't need a reason to help people
Nominate Zidane Tribal for SC2K6!!
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 3/16/2006 9:24:22 PM | Message Detail
really?? hm.. what's with all the credits on the Kingdom Hearts II list.. I thought that showed what characters are going to be in the game.. Guess I am wrong..

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Eagerly awaiting Kingdom Hearts II & Final Fantasy XII
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 3/17/2006 12:11:36 PM | Message Detail
Let's clear this up. Who, exactly, is in KHII, and how big a role do they have? According to IMDB's voice actor list, it's

Sora
Riku
Cloud
Sephiroth
Aeris
Yuna
Auron
Rikku
Squall
Vivi
Seifer

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0390163/fullcredits

Can someone confirm this?

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"lol x-stats" - The Contest Simulator: http://thengamer.com/xstats
Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 3/17/2006 12:17:11 PM | Message Detail
What about Setzer? I remember hearing something about him.
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pi
From: Brainstruck | Posted: 3/17/2006 12:26:38 PM | Message Detail
Off the top of my head:

Cloud
Aeris
Tifa
Sephiroth
Cid
Yuffie
Squall (Leon)
Selphie
Seifer
Rajin
Fuijin
Vivi
Setzer
Mogs
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You don't need a reason to help people
Nominate Zidane Tribal for SC2K6!!
From: Brainstruck | Posted: 3/17/2006 12:27:07 PM | Message Detail
Whoops, forgpt X

Yuna
Rikku
Paine
Tidus
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You don't need a reason to help people
Nominate Zidane Tribal for SC2K6!!
From: therealmnm | Posted: 3/17/2006 12:57:20 PM | Message Detail
No Wakka this time around?
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: MMXC, Fight Night R2, Threads of Fate, Jade Empire
From: ssknuxmagician | Posted: 3/17/2006 1:01:15 PM | Message Detail
I read that Tidus and Wakka are only MENTIONED by someone.
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The Travis Porn.
From: XIII_rocks | Posted: 3/17/2006 1:02:32 PM | Message Detail
Squall vs. Ken.

Percentages
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From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 3/17/2006 1:04:44 PM | Message Detail
Squall wins with 63-64% of the vote.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Ramza, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 3/17/2006 3:21:03 PM | Message Detail
Accroding to lol x-stats: Squall with 69%

My Prediction: Squall with 62%
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/17/2006 3:38:16 PM | Message Detail
I think Squall can push for the doubling. He might not get it, but I think he'd be close.
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From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 3/17/2006 4:39:46 PM | Message Detail
Depends on where Ken really is. 2002 gets 41% and 2003 gets 31% on Squall, so there's a wide range where he could fit. Maybe Squall could push the doubling, but it seems odd giving him more than Samus.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Ramza, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/17/2006 5:23:51 PM | Message Detail
We also saw Squall in 2k2...it seems odd taking Squall over Frog if you just look at common opponents.

That said, I see your point, but I trust the newer Ken < Sonic < Cloud more than the older Ken < Samus < Seph < Link (which includes WDF).
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From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 3/17/2006 5:25:30 PM | Message Detail
We also saw Squall in 2k2...it seems odd taking Squall over Frog if you just look at common opponents.

Yeah, but we have a viable explanation for what happened to Squall, and we've had subsequent performances to back it up. We got two drastically different performances for Ken and nothing to determine which was more correct.

Also, Squall got SFF'd...
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Ramza, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 3/17/2006 5:26:03 PM | Message Detail
I'll also go out on a limb and say that Solid Snake would SFF Master Chief and Sam Fisher as well.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Ramza, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/17/2006 5:28:01 PM | Message Detail
I'd say Solid SFF's Sam, too. Not so sure on MC though...maybe.
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From: ssknuxmagician | Posted: 3/18/2006 10:52:00 AM | Message Detail
Two random questions:
1. Has a/the SSBMF (Super Smash Bros. Melee Factor) been "officialized" yet?

2. Could SSBMF could possibly be a factor of Samus beating Sonic in 2k2?
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The Travis Porn.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 3/18/2006 12:05:57 PM | Message Detail
WTF is the SSBM factor? Just that characters in SSBM are stronger? In that case, we might as well call it the "No ****" Factor.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 3/18/2006 12:16:05 PM | Message Detail
In 2002, in a match that close against Sonic, you could claim just about any factor making the difference between Samus winning and losing.

However, if she hadn't been in SSB, I do believe that Sonic would've won, though not by a large margin.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Ramza, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
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