doesn't the '05 ToC show last year's Link was even better?



Whatever measly numbers we got tells me he wasn't. You just go and assume I'm buying that 55% garbage. He didn't beat Sephiroth anywhere near hard enough to justify that.

---

Also, eat from garbage cans as much as possible, because nobody in America ever throws away anything that can make you fat. -MYC health tip

It could just you that Sephiroth might have underperformed in 2004, got anti-voted in the Villains Contest, and didn't really lose that much strength.

---

Nominate Serge (Chrono Cross) for SC2K6!

Nominate Seifer Almasy (Final Fantasy VIII) for SC2K6!

These two things I buy. You just seem to underestimate just how unbelievably strong Link has to be for Sephy's two matches to be valid. I have my own version of the stats lying around somewhere... he's closer to 52% there.

---

Also, eat from garbage cans as much as possible, because nobody in America ever throws away anything that can make you fat. -MYC health tip

55% LSE for FF7 sounds about right.



~*ST*~

---

Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest

Currently Playing: Deus Ex, FFTA, MMXC, C&C: The First Decade

Alright, so, if the Base Link change means going from 50% to 55%, then the LSE ratio to apply is 55/50 = 1.1. So to make the switch to Base Link stats, I simply take the current values times the 1.1 ratio. Right? That would give values like...



Ocarina - 50.80% (so OoT from '04 could have edged Celda Link, but would have been knocked out by Link of '04)



CT - 45.94% (would blow any year Crono out of the water)



Mario 3 - 43.89% (would just edge 2005's Mario)



Seems about right.



---

the-elite.net congratulates voltch, "Top Ten" Guru Champion!

Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/

And now for the grand unveiling!





Have you ever wished there was an easy way to calculate expected match percentages, without having to look up character X-stats and calc them by hand? If so, have you chosen not to make use of RPGuy's Java calculator after seeing how long the list of instructions is? [ http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/26 ] If your answers were yes, then I have just the thing for you!



"lol x-stats" - The Contest Matchup Simulator!



http://www.thengamer.com/xstats/



lol x-stats can do everything you could ever want*! To use, simply pick which set of X-stats you would like to make use of, and Submit. Then you will be greeted with a dropdown list of all the characters from that season; pick two, Submit, and find out exactly what results the X-stats predict. It's accurate down to a single vote! If you want to chose a different set of X-stats to work with, just click "Start Over," and make your new choices. If you're feeling silly, you can even pit Games against Characters! Hilarity will surely ensue!



* except correctly predict Contest matchups





I will be adding many features and tweaks in the future. Briefly, they include...



- support for all "raw" (un-SFF adjusted) X-stats

- battle pictures for all characters/games (the poll pic from the matchup they lost will be used, since that was the matchup, and picture, which determined their value for the year)

- a "results" section that exactly duplicates the GameFAQs format (including the two horizontal blue bars)

- some form of "total votes estimator" (so that a Max Payne/Gordon matchup would only "draw" half the votes that a Link/Cloud battle would)



Currently every matchup draws the same number of votes: 97,606. That was the average vote total during the '05 Summer Contest, so it seemed a fair place to start.



Don't hesitate to post any further suggestions. I'll make a note of them and hopefully be able to get them running for Version 2.0.



---

the-elite.net congratulates voltch, "Top Ten" Guru Champion!

Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/

NGamer FTW!



---

Explicit Content

I used to be Asian, but I didn't get good enough grades so my parents beat it out of me. - snalien

It's been a while since I really discussed pure stats, but here we are:



Ocelot's estimated SC2K5 standing (estimated): 21.72%

Bowser beat Ocelot in SpC2K5 with: 65.99%

Diablo's estimated SC2K5 standing (estimated): 24.22%

Ganondorf beat Diablo in Sp2C2K5 with: 65.20%



Also, Diablo beat Kefka with 54%. Ocelot lost to Pac-Man with 49%. ZOMG (Sonic) > Ganondorf > Bowser?! (note that Ocelot had the same pic against both Bowser and Pac-Man)

...



See? There's two comparisons that suggest Ganondorf > Bowser, the other being their matches against Sephiroth. (you could argue more than that, too, actually...arguments for Auron's strength)



If that's the case and you trust the stats well enough, then most likely:



A)Bowser likely over-performed against Snake. So, I suppose the argument for Bowser's over-performing in his loss is a better argument than Kirby over-performing. In Ryu's defense, while it's difficult to imagine him that low, he did struggle with Rikku. And, characters aren't "joined by the hip" as some have stated over and over.

B)OR Ganondorf is just that underrated, which pretty much suggests that Samus SFFed Ganondorf, or perhaps that Samus was severely rSFFed by Mario. I personally like this idea, since it would place Auron nice and high...



Part A is a bit more reasonable when you look at Sonic vs. Diablo...perhaps B is possible, though.



Also, I never thought about this before, but this theory also places Yuna significantly ahead of Rikku (Rikku's barely ahead of Yuna in creative's x-stats), which makes more sense...



...my mind just drew a blank. I was originally going to do something related to that to argue in favor of Link being closer to 52% on BL rather than 55% with something closely related to that, but...oh, well. Well, I'll just say that the fact that every single Noble Nine member increasing or staying the same in popularity between SC2K4 and SC2K5 is one suspicion. Among many other things I won't bother to mention write now. I'm very tempted to say that something happened in either Mario/Sephiroth or Sephiroth/Link, actually, since I have a hard time thinking of Link or Cloud dropping, myself.

...



---

"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"

"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I just noticed that Bowser is actually STRONGER in SC2k5 than he was in the villain's contest. I could have sworn people said he was weaker the Summer Contest. I say that he probably did overperform that 1-2% against Snake.

---

Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6

Currently playing: MMXC, Fight Night R2, Threads of Fate, Jade Empire

Well, the x-stats aren't really credible in Sp2K5, for obvious reasons. Still, I think you CAN argue that Bowser grew in popularity between the contests, anyway, since Nintendo boosted a remarkable amount between SC2K4 and SC2K5, and a few months time difference betwen Sp2K5 and SC2K5 could be rather significant for them. (Of course, if Bowser grew, I can't see why Ganondorf wouldn't gain, as well.)



---

"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"

"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Yeah, but I thought the whole credibility issue with the Spring Contest was that Bowser wasn't that strong... Not that he was stronger.

---

Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6

Currently playing: MMXC, Fight Night R2, Threads of Fate, Jade Empire

Well, I know that's the issue, but it's better to use Bowser's more reliable matches (against Ocelot and his SC2K5 matches) rather than using Bowser vs. Sephiroth. Bower's Sp2K5 x-stat could possibly be accurate, but it would take luck for that to be so, given the amount of data we had to work with.



But..hm...you know...don't you think we should re-calculate the Sp2K5 x-stats again, since we have SC2K5 data? I mean, we can have Diablo, Ocelot, a more-reliable CATS, Wesker, and whoever else to measure from now...



---

"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"

"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Diablo had no linkage (if anyone even cares about that), Ocelot is behind double SFF, Wesker is potentially behind Mario/Zero SFF, and if you think CATS's value in SC2k5 is reliable you're deluding yourself. Nah, I don't think so.

Diablo had no linkage (if anyone even cares about that)

Diablo's still expected to beat Kefka with 53% according to SC2K5 stats...the linkage in his matches had little effect.



Ocelot is behind double SFF

The funny thing is...there's a chance Ocelot's overrated in SC2K5, thus overrated Bowser more...not that I believe that.



Wesker is potentially behind Mario/Zero SFF, and if you think CATS's value in SC2k5 is reliable you're deluding yourself. Nah, I don't think so.



Oh, wait...I didn't realize what you were arguing for. But, as bad as the SC2K5 stats are, they're still better than those for SC2K4. CATS at 18% on BL will be closer than CATS at 13% on BL. Besides, most of the stats guys will argue that Zero/Mario didn't have any SFF. Ocelot's worth SOMETHING...anything helps. Diablo is surely not very off.



---

"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"

"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Diablo had no linkage (if anyone even cares about that)



In the VC, true. Against Sonic, you're close; it became known later in the match that linkage came up about the half-way point of the match, and that's likely why Diablo was able to take the day-vote from Sonic.

---

Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here:

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

The link came up quite late in the match, more than just the halfway point. An adjustment based off of a constant Diablo wouldn't be very farfetched, though the only thing that it changes is putting Ganondorf over Zelda. He's still below even Kirby.

---

Nominate Serge (Chrono Cross) for SC2K6!

Nominate Seifer Almasy (Final Fantasy VIII) for SC2K6!

If you want to make any sort of a reasonable adjustment to Ganondorf, you either have to give him the same percentage on Sephiroth as in the VC (lol Ganon > Crono) or make an adjustment based on something like Diablo. Doing something like giving him his 2k3/2k4 value (which we know today is WRONG) or giving him the same proportion to Bowser based on NO EVIDENCE WHATSOEVER is silly.

Added the most important stats links to the top of lol x-stats. Ulti, do you think you could remember to add lol x-stats to the first post of the next Stats topic?



---

the-elite.net congratulates voltch, "Top Ten" Guru Champion!

Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/

Ngamer...you rock.

---

Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Setting him proportional to Bowser doesn't seem that bad to me. They DID have a common opponent within 2 days of each other and similar vote totals. The performances were so close that Bowser vs. Ganon would be a toss-up anyways. Ganon's match against Auron proved that he is probably somewhere around that level. Getting Ganon exactly right in the x-stats isn't really crucial to me anyways. I think the general bracket maker should be forced to do SOME kind of logical thinking...

---

Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6

Currently playing: MMXC, Fight Night R2, Threads of Fate, Jade Empire

I just think proportions are unreliable at best, and stupid at worst. Sure, they look nice, and they *seem* logical at the time, but ultimately it shouldn't be used if we can use extrapolation in place of it. Should we adjust 2k4 Mega Man by giving him the proportion against Mario that their 2k3 Sephiroth matches suggest?



There's no reason why we can't use Diablo SpC2k5 and SC2k5 for Ganondorf adjustments rather than proportions, unless someone can tell me something. If anything, it should overestimate Ganon.

Speaking of Mario... I just realized how much he absolutely sucked in his 2k4 match against Crono. Looking at that match, I'm still tempted to pick Samus. Seriously though, based on that match and Samus seeming being able to avoid major SFF against Link, I think taking Samus was a logical choice. Mario absolutely bombed against Crono. <_<

---

Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6

Currently playing: MMXC, Fight Night R2, Threads of Fate, Jade Empire

Extrapolation IS proportions. Losses from the champ aren't always the most reliable matches, and one reason I'm using that example is because it's difficult to measure the strength of the base characters (i.e. Sephiroth in Sp2K5 and Link in SC2K5). So, using those proportions is often actually -more- reliable than regular extrapolated standings. Also, I didn't use any data outside of Sp2K5 and SC2K5, save the assumption that Pac-Man isn't any higher than his match against Kefka in 2K3 suggests (which is actually optimistic, considering Pac's 2K2 value) when determining that Ganondorf > Bowser.



---

"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"

"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I haven't seen Slow around. I'm guessing he ran off after people yelled at him over the Rally Tournament issue.



~*ST*~

---

Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest

Currently Playing: Deus Ex, FFTA, MMXC, C&C: The First Decade

Was a bit bored today so I decided to throw together a mock 2k6 bracket for myself. So I guess I'll show it off here and see what you guys think of it. In this bracket, Clinkeroth is back in the field.



**Hyrule Division**

#1 Link

#8 Jay Solano



#4 The Prince (of Persia)

#5 Ryu H.



#3 Kratos (God of War)

#6 Mewtwo



#2 Crono

#7 Jill Valentine



**Flood Division**

#1 Master Chief

#8 Morrigan



#4 Ryu (SF)

#5 Tidus



#3 Dante

#6 Vercetti



#2 Sora

#7 Diablo



**20XX Division**

#1 Mega Man

#8 CATS



#4 Captian Falcon

#5 Seifer



#3 Riku

#6 Peach



#2 Luigi

#7 Serge



**Gear Division**

#1 Solid Snake

#8 Strider Hiryu



#4 Vincent

#5 Ness



#3 Bowser

#6 Vivi



#2 Sonic

#7 Kasumi (DoA)



**Midgar Division**

#1 Cloud

#8 Klonoa



#4 Yoshi

#5 Magus



#3 Fox McCloud

#6 Knuckles



#2 Zero

#7 Yuna



**Mushroom Division**

#1 Mario

#8 Phoenix Wright



#4 Kefka

#5 Gordon Freeman



#3 Ganondorf

#6 Joanna Dark



#2 Squall

#7 Kratos Aurion



**Zebes Division**

#1 Samus

#8 Pac-Man



#4 Shadow the Hedgehog

#5 Leon Kennedy



#3 Kirby

#6 Aeris



#2 Auron

#7 Alucard



**Jenova Division**

#1 Sephiroth

#8 Fayt Leingod



#4 Zelda

#5 Donkey Kong



#3 Sub-Zero

#6 Raiden (MGS2)



#2 Nightmare

#7 Ken Masters



**Originally had Bowser/Squall & Ganondorf/Sonic but flip-flopped B & G to avoid Mario/Bowser

**Originally had Mushroom vs 20XX winners & Gear vs Midgar winners, but flip-flopped Mushroom & Gear since Mario/Megaman wouldn't be that exciting at this point,

at least compared to a possible Sonic/Megaman rematch.

http://thengamer.com/xstats



lol x-stats now supports all 354 (or so) Character pics! The only exceptions are Little Mac and Pitfall Harry from 2002, whose match pictures have apparently been lost for all time... creative doesn't have copies of them, at least.



If you click on the character/games picture, you'll be shown the entire match pic from that day. This should be very useful in determining what kind of "pic factor" went into the character's final rating for the year. And if you're one of those who still says pics can't have big effects, try running any of the four Eggplant CATS vs either of the two Face CATs, and tell me what you think.



If you find a character whose pic doesn't display properly, mention it here and I'll look into it.



---

the-elite.net congratulates voltch, "Top Ten" Guru Champion!

Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/

lol at 2004 Snake's face getting blasted still. Can't escape Mega Man that easily! <_<

---

Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6

Currently playing: MMXC, Fight Night R2, Threads of Fate, Jade Empire

Round 1



**Hyrule Division**

#1 Link

#5 Ryu H.



#3 Kratos (God of War)

#2 Crono



**Flood Division**

#1 Master Chief

#4 Ryu (SF)



#3 Dante

#2 Sora



**20XX Division**

#1 Mega Man

#5 Seifer



#6 Peach

#2 Luigi



**Gear Division**

#1 Solid Snake

#4 Vincent



#3 Bowser

#2 Sonic



**Midgar Division**

#1 Cloud

#5 Magus



#6 Knuckles

#2 Zero



**Mushroom Division**

#1 Mario

#4 Kefka



#3 Ganondorf

#2 Squall



**Zebes Division**

#1 Samus

#4 Shadow the Hedgehog



#6 Aeris

#2 Auron



**Jenova Division**

#1 Sephiroth

#4 Zelda



#3 Sub-Zero

#2 Nightmare



Round 2



**Hyrule Division**

#1 Link

#2 Crono



**Flood Division**

#1 Master Chief

#2 Sora



**20XX Division**

#1 Mega Man

#2 Luigi



**Gear Division**

#1 Solid Snake

#2 Sonic



**Midgar Division**

#1 Cloud

#6 Knuckles



**Mushroom Division**

#1 Mario

#3 Ganondorf



**Zebes Division**

#1 Samus

#6 Aeris



**Jenova Division**

#1 Sephiroth

#3 Sub-Zero



Round 3



#1 Link

#2 Sora



#1 Mega Man

#2 Sonic



#1 Cloud

#1 Mario



#1 Samus

#1 Sephiroth



Round 4



#1 Link

#2 Sonic



#1 Cloud

#1 Sephiroth



Round 5



#1 Link

#1 Cloud



Round 6



#1 Link

---

"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush

okay, quick instinct picks:







**Hyrule Division**

#1 Link



#5 Ryu H. - PofP is overrated



#3 Kratos (God of War) - good matchup



#2 Crono



**Flood Division**

#1 Master Chief



#4 Ryu (SF)



#3 Dante



#2 Sora



**20XX Division**

#1 Mega Man



#4 Captian Falcon



#6 Peach



#2 Luigi



**Gear Division**

#1 Solid Snake



#4 Vincent



#3 Bowser



#2 Sonic



**Midgar Division**

#1 Cloud



#5 Magus - another good match, i think.



#6 Knuckles - tough call, but i don't think Fox has that much in him. he could take Tails, but not Knuckles.



#2 Zero



**Mushroom Division**

#1 Mario



#4 Kefka - i love this match very much.



#3 Ganondorf



#2 Squall



**Zebes Division**

#1 Samus



#4 Shadow the Hedgehog



#6 Aeris - tough call.



#2 Auron



**Jenova Division**

#1 Sephiroth



#4 Zelda



#3 Sub-Zero



#2 Nightmare - another match i like.



round 2



**Hyrule Division**

#1 Link



#2 Crono



**Flood Division**

#4 Ryu (SF) - upset sprecial!!



#2 Sora



**20XX Division**

#1 Mega Man



#6 Peach - i really do think she could take Luigi, especially if her DS game is well received.



**Gear Division**

#1 Solid Snake - but only until DofC gets released.



#2 Sonic



**Midgar Division**

#1 Cloud



#2 Zero



**Mushroom Division**

#1 Mario



#2 Squall



**Zebes Division**

#1 Samus



#2 Auron - tough matchup.



**Jenova Division**

#1 Sephiroth



#2 Nightmare - i still think Nightmare can beat all the other fighters except Ryu.



3rd round:





**Hyrule Division**

#1 Link



**Flood Division**

#2 Sora - the mature KH2 Sora will be a beast.



**20XX Division**

#1 Mega Man



**Gear Division**

#2 Sonic



**Midgar Division**

#1 Cloud



**Mushroom Division**

#1 Mario



**Zebes Division**

#1 Samus



**Jenova Division**

#1 Sephiroth



q-finals:



#1 Link

#1 Mega Man



#1 Cloud

#1 Sephiroth



semifinals:



#1 Link

#1 Cloud



champ:



#1 Cloud (only wothout TP being released, though.)



nice bracket, overall.



---

Jman_gamerX8 - i had no idea who this guy was until he whomped us all in the Guru Contest.

heh, Mega Man's division is weak as hell, just like 2k5. Seph's, too. Auron's fourpack, on the other hand, is brutal.

---

xyzzy

I think this might finally be the year where Ceej sets up Mario/Sonic. And if he doesn't, well, he damn well should.

---

Turn GameFAQs into Toad's House! Toad for SC2k6! Festivus II

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=26387685

I think this might finally be the year where Ceej sets up Mario/Sonic. And if he doesn't, well, he damn well should.



heh, i would love to see that, just to watch Sonic get killed by Mario, just like he was in the 16-Bit era. =P



---

Jman_gamerX8 - i had no idea who this guy was until he whomped us all in the Guru Contest.

It's a match that we need to see, although he could set up a tough path for Sonic to get there.

---

Turn GameFAQs into Toad's House! Toad for SC2k6! Festivus II

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=26387685

"creative doesn't have copies of them, at least."



I hear the man you speak of is known as Scorpion. I once heard a wild tale that he, in fact, contained the legendary documents.

---

Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris

Detective in Sir Chris' Police

I may o rmay not be under the influence of substances.



I meant to say that Scorp claims to have them, not that he's a container for them.

---

Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris

Detective in Sir Chris' Police

Apparently, Reggie seemed to have confirmed that Twilight Princess would not be here until Fall 2006.





Go, Cloud. <3



---

"What I have shown you is reality. What you remember, that is the illusion." -- Sephiroth

Link? <_<

---

Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6

Currently playing: MMXC, Fight Night R2, Threads of Fate, Jade Empire

It was during an interview on SpikeTV about 20 minutes ago. There should be the typical wesbites reporting soon enough. They will all reference the show "Game Head," who conducted the interview with him. It is still on the GameCube, too.



---

"What I have shown you is reality. What you remember, that is the illusion." -- Sephiroth

If there is a games contest II this spring, do you think FFVII will be removed from the main bracket to fight the winner? (OoT)

---

Nominate Citan for Summer 2006!

If there is another Games Contest, I'm willing to bet the GameFAQs Top Ten games will all be removed; at least that would make it much more interesting.

---

"Let's mosey"

Proud member of the Jay Solano Army

If there is a games contest II this spring, do you think FFVII will be removed from the main bracket to fight the winner? (OoT)



No.

---

"Now I realise.. I wasn't pursuing Sephiroth.

I was being summoned by Sephiroth"

If there is another Games Contest, I'm willing to bet the GameFAQs Top Ten games will all be removed; at least that would make it much more interesting.



...I'll take that bet. Quickly.

---

Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here:

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

I'll be that HaRR wins that bet.



---

Explicit Content

Cheer up Emo Kids.

Bet even.



---

Explicit Content

Cheer up Emo Kids.

There won't be another games contest (at least not this year), so don't worry about it.

---

"Let's mosey"

Proud member of the Jay Solano Army

You'll be nothing, EC, nothing and like it!

---

Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here:

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

OMG stop the hurt HaRR.



---

Explicit Content

Cheer up Emo Kids.

Oh, and as for that link...



"He also mentioned that we will not be seeing Zelda: Twilight Princess until later this fall, but it will still be released on the GameCube."



http://www.revolutionreport.com/articles/read/310



---

"What I have shown you is reality. What you remember, that is the illusion." -- Sephiroth

It's a shame that, despite that, Cloud still isn't going to beat him.



>_>

---

Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb

So I see you, too, know what it is like to live in a delusionary world!



---

"What I have shown you is reality. What you remember, that is the illusion." -- Sephiroth