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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 277
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 2/16/2006 11:35:47 AM | Message Detail
I never bought into the BS about Devil needing to be adjusted down, and good cases can be made for all of the characters that are high in the stats.



Or this could be a repeat of 2004 20XX, who knows. At least the Devil characters are pretty reliable and constant.



~*ST*~

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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 2/16/2006 11:42:55 AM | Message Detail
I dunno, I just see a lot of those characters as out of their league. Could you really see Knuckles giving Zero a match (granted, a tad of SFF is possible, but they're still way too close for my liking)?
From: Applause Sign | Posted: 2/16/2006 11:45:18 AM | Message Detail
I can... Sonic flunky v. Mega Man flunky, I don't know why it's so hard to see.



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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 2/16/2006 11:48:14 AM | Message Detail
Maybe if we hadn't seen them in any contests...but Knuckles is Snake's whipping boy, while Zero was hyped as the guy to break the Noble Nine by *beating* Snake. Knuckles was the perennial midcarder, while Zero has been the perennial near-elite.



Honestly, unless Knux has been hidden behind animal SFF all these years, I can't see him giving Zero a match like that.
From: Fire | Posted: 2/16/2006 11:49:33 AM | Message Detail
Given Seph's upward trend and the better performances by the rest of Zelda, wouldn't it make more sense to assume that Link Nintendo Boosted a decent bit himself, and AC was helpful enough for Cloud to about equal the jump?



Sephiroth seemed to have the most noticeable boost of everyone who could have been affected by the torrent. I find it hard to believe that he could have benefited equally or greater than Cloud when his role in the movie was limited to the end. I also have trouble believing Link boosted by any amount worth noting.



This year, not only will the movie not be a hot topic of discussion online ("hey dude, know where I can find an FF:AC torrent?"), it will also have been out long enough that no one will be coming to GameFAQs to refresh themselves on the story.



What? Why would people not want to refresh their minds on the storyline after seeing Advent Children? You act as though virtually everyone who wants to see the movie has seen it. That is just stupid. There will be discussion online, though not necessarily in the form of "where can I get a torrent." You will also have plenty coming back to check the FFVII FAQs to get some refreshment on the storyline. It may even make people replay the game after watching the movie.



Uh, not if their goal is to sell Revolutions.



Twilight Princess will help sell Revolution units, but by no means are they relying on it to push the system. It is just an added benefit for them to release it on the GameCube and near the Revolution launch at the same time. GameCube owners who do not want to immediately purchase Nintendo's next-gen system can play it as can those who are looking to purchase a Revolution due to the backward compatibility. Putting it solely on the Revolution at this point would get them more backlash and I would wager lesser sales on the game in the process.



A simple commercial for the damn game during the contest will at least keep him at his 2k5 level in comparison to Cloud.



It was not like anyone, or at least not myself, was ever expecting Link to fall from where he is at in 2005.



Believe it or not, I can't really do that until the English release comes out and I'm actually able to understand the dialogue. I couldn't get the subtitles to work in the Jap version I downloaded.



Then do not bother to give your opinion on something that you are clueless on. You are not in a position to state whether or not its mediocre if you did not even know what was going on in the movie. But I got what I wanted out of this comment. It was your own ignorance more than anything.



That said, I still say FF7 fans are overestimating the hell out of the possible effects. You're safer betting on Kingdom Hearts Factor 2.0 than you are AC.



I have gone through how I expect Kingdom Hearts II to be as helpful or even more helpful than Advent Children, especially given what we have seen the first Kingdom Hearts do for Square. I have been arguing in a very bare minimum manner. There is nothing for me to possibly overestimate.



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"What I have shown you is reality. What you remember, that is the illusion." -- Sephiroth
From: Slowflake | Posted: 2/16/2006 11:49:39 AM | Message Detail
Same here. Not even the Zero we saw in 2005.

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From: Applause Sign | Posted: 2/16/2006 11:53:11 AM | Message Detail
Well anyone who thought Zero could take out Snake was smoking something, and I would like some.



And you said it yourself, Knux has been Snake's whipping boy, it could just be that he doesn't perform as well on him as other characters, or it could be that he overperformed this year, either way is just as plausible really.



---

My sig hurts from being owned so hard by ExTha, just like Duke owned Maryland.

ExTha > Soul > EC
From: Fire | Posted: 2/16/2006 11:53:24 AM | Message Detail
I could see Knuckles giving Zero a rather close match, myself.



---

"What I have shown you is reality. What you remember, that is the illusion." -- Sephiroth
From: Applause Sign | Posted: 2/16/2006 11:54:07 AM | Message Detail
Also, I would probably take Zero, but I wouldn't be anywhere near certain on the match.



---

My sig hurts from being owned so hard by ExTha, just like Duke owned Maryland.

ExTha > Soul > EC
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 2/16/2006 11:56:53 AM | Message Detail
Well anyone who thought Zero could take out Snake was smoking something, and I would like some.



See: THE ENTIRE POST 2K4 STATS TOPIC--after all Zero performed better on a common opponent, right?



Heck, I'm sure there are people would would still take Zero over Snake if it was under 2k4 circumstances. Heck, I'm sure there are people who would take Samus over Mario given 2k4 circumstances.
From: Applause Sign | Posted: 2/16/2006 11:57:38 AM | Message Detail
Well don't judge my opinions based on other peoples terrible ones. >_>



---

My sig hurts from being owned so hard by ExTha, just like Duke owned Maryland.

ExTha > Soul > EC
From: therealmnm | Posted: 2/16/2006 11:58:25 AM | Message Detail
I think Zero is simply underrated this year due to facing Mario. It's more on Zero than Knuckles. Looking at all the other people around Knuckles in the X-Stats from other divisions (Master Chief, Luigi, etc.), I don't see how Knux is out of his league at all. He may be a percent or two high, but it's not farfetched at all. I could also see Squall and Vincent beating Zelda with no problem. I don't have many issues at all with the Devil division.

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From: Slowflake | Posted: 2/16/2006 12:00:09 PM | Message Detail
I think Zero is simply underrated this year due to facing Mario.



You'd have a point... if Zero wasn't so underwhelming in his first two matches.

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From: Applause Sign | Posted: 2/16/2006 12:01:15 PM | Message Detail
What Slow said.



---

My sig hurts from being owned so hard by ExTha, just like Duke owned Maryland.

ExTha > Soul > EC
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 2/16/2006 12:05:01 PM | Message Detail
Master Chief is simply overrated, and Luigi was on 'roids this year for whatever reason. But look at the other people around that strength level. Zelda. Tifa. Auron. Ryu. Could Dante and Knuckles really give them all they could handle?



Believe me, I'd love to think so, as Dante and Knux kick ass...but it's hard to buy.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 2/16/2006 12:05:46 PM | Message Detail
See: THE ENTIRE POST 2K4 STATS TOPIC--after all Zero performed better on a common opponent, right?



Heck, I'm sure there are people would would still take Zero over Snake if it was under 2k4 circumstances. Heck, I'm sure there are people who would take Samus over Mario given 2k4 circumstances.




That was partially me boosting up the anti-Snake bandwagon and me loving the fact that Sonic wasn't being considered the weakest of the Noble Nine as well as making Zero looking as good as possible. I knew Snake was slightly weaker in 2k4, but I always thought that he underperformed against Mega Man due to the pic of Mega Man blasting him in the face. I may be wrong, but I don't see how anybody but fans of Snake could not vote for Mega Man in that situation. <_< Regardless, I figured that Snake was underrated and would bounce back in 2k5. I wouldn't have taken Zero over him, but I sincerely thought Bowser could beat him (I was close too...)

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From: Applause Sign | Posted: 2/16/2006 12:10:12 PM | Message Detail
But look at the other people around that strength level. Zelda. Tifa. Auron. Ryu. Could Dante and Knuckles really give them all they could handle?



Believe me, I'd love to think so, as Dante and Knux kick ass...but it's hard to buy.




Why couldn't Dante give Tifa all she could handle? He put up 54% on Vincent who has shown to be stronger than Tifa, and that was against a character who has the same prototype as himself, and as we all know FF7 SFF's everything, when DMC is PS based and the character was going up against another character with the same possibility, I don't see why Dante couldn't beat all of them.



---

My sig hurts from being owned so hard by ExTha, just like Duke owned Maryland.

ExTha > Soul > EC
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 2/16/2006 12:13:20 PM | Message Detail
He put up 54% on Vincent who has shown to be stronger than Tifa



Arguable. That said, I'm not gonna argue it right now (gotta be off-script for my play tonight, gotta spend my time refining my lines).

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From: Slowflake | Posted: 2/16/2006 12:14:58 PM | Message Detail
I'd pick Tifa at gunpoint. Not easy by any means, though.

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Also, eat from garbage cans as much as possible, because nobody in America ever throws away anything that can make you fat. -MYC health tip
From: Applause Sign | Posted: 2/16/2006 12:15:18 PM | Message Detail
Lies ! !



You fear my massive e-wang don't even try to deny it ! !



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My sig hurts from being owned so hard by ExTha, just like Duke owned Maryland.

ExTha > Soul > EC
From: Fire | Posted: 2/16/2006 12:16:37 PM | Message Detail
Arguable.



It would not be worth arguing as that would have been her only year to even think about being stronger.



---

"What I have shown you is reality. What you remember, that is the illusion." -- Sephiroth
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 2/16/2006 12:17:01 PM | Message Detail
This is true.

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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 2/16/2006 12:18:12 PM | Message Detail
Well, assuming DoC comes out on time.



I'd probably take Vincent either way, though.
From: Fire | Posted: 2/16/2006 12:21:56 PM | Message Detail
I would take Vincent before or after. But Dirge of Cerberus cements him as the third strongest FFVII character that will be in these contests. It should do enough to send him soaring up the ranks, too.



I would imagine meeting the summer release though.



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"What I have shown you is reality. What you remember, that is the illusion." -- Sephiroth
From: voltch | Posted: 2/16/2006 1:15:01 PM | Message Detail
so out of vincent/tifa/aeris what is the current lineup in strength?

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From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 2/16/2006 1:50:58 PM | Message Detail
Nintendo has already said it was going to release on the GameCube. The GameCube is backward compatible with the Revolution, so releasing it on the GameCube is by far the better of the two strategies. It does not require everyone to buy a new Revolution to play the game. GameCube owners can still purchase the game, but those wanting a Revolution can also play the game, too. The odds of Revolution features being available are also likely, meaning that it has even greater appeal to those purchasing a Revolution. The earliest I expect to see Twilight Princess is in October, personally. And you are still working in a very big "What if," the same game we have played for a couple of years now



but...it isn't a good strategy to release it so close to the launch of the rev. They really aren't going to sell extra gamecubes unless there's a significant time delay between the two events. Yeah, the game will sell, but not gc's. Nintendo either should have released it for the gc earlier or the rev later. I don't think releasing it in the middle is going to help the gc.

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From: Fire | Posted: 2/16/2006 1:54:44 PM | Message Detail
but...it isn't a good strategy to release it so close to the launch of the rev. They really aren't going to sell extra gamecubes unless there's a significant time delay between the two events. Yeah, the game will sell, but not gc's. Nintendo either should have released it for the gc earlier or the rev later. I don't think releasing it in the middle is going to help the gc.



The GameCube is more or less dead at this point. It is really no longer a matter of trying to push more GameCube's into being sold when their place at third worldwide is cemented and the Revolution launch is so close. It is a matter of selling more copies of Twilight Princess and also pushing Revolution sales releasing it close to launch with what is presumed to be Revolution features -- hints have trickled down that this is what the delay was actually for. But trying to find an appropriate time so they can sell more GCN's? That really does not concern Nintendo right now.



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"What I have shown you is reality. What you remember, that is the illusion." -- Sephiroth
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 2/16/2006 2:00:55 PM | Message Detail
Why would people not want to refresh their minds on the storyline after seeing Advent Children?



Because people want to make themselves better-informed viewers heading into a film? Because everyone who is interested in the DVD is going to see it early on, because the nature of the film industry in America is incredibly front-loaded? Because a potential Cloud/Link final would take place 144 days after the North American release of AC?



You make a good point, though, about there being some potential FF7 replaying. We'll have to keep an eye on the FAQ listing.



The other thing that would have me worried, were I an AC-pusher, was the dismal response to yesterday's poll. Anyone remember the day when the mention of anything Square sent voters to the polls in droves? Even a new FF7 film had most of the site going "meh" yesterday.



Total Votes:



Advent Children - 55257

PS3 cost - 75472

Poop on your hands - 70572

Old systems - 66911



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From: Fire | Posted: 2/16/2006 2:05:35 PM | Message Detail
Even a new FF7 film had most of the site going "meh" yesterday.



Like a few others polls before it, there was a terrible advertisement up on the poll for "Getting Up" for good long while. It was taken down later on, though, and the totals picked up.



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"What I have shown you is reality. What you remember, that is the illusion." -- Sephiroth
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 2/16/2006 2:05:39 PM | Message Detail
I personally don't buy the Devil Division needing any sort of adjustment. Squall was DEFINITELY behind SFF in 2004, and arguably behind it in 2003 (unless you're one of those who still believes Samus went down after Metroid Prime and massively boosted one year later). As I mentioned before, Squall remains in nearly the same proportion to Samus as he did in 2003, so it's an arguable point. Not to mention, I wouldn't buy Kirby swinging nearly 10% on Squall in the space of a year, as that's what would happen if you adjusted him down to his former levels. Of course, there's the possibility that Kirby himself is overrated, but I don't necessarily buy that either.



As far as Knuckles is concerned, Sonic had a sizable boost of his own. Why not him as well? I would still take Zero over Knuckles in all likelihood. Mario overperforming against him would not surprise me, and plus it gets rid of that Lloyd = Mithos stuff.



As far as Magus is concerned...If you think Sam Fisher was constant in 2005 and 2003, then he fits where he's supposed to. Donkey Kong performed a little bit under what Magus did, and guess what? He's a little bit under Magus in 2005 and close to the same proportion to Tidus as he was in 2003. Of course, this is assuming consistency for three different characters across 3 years, but still.



Plus, I have no problem with where Terra, Geno, and Cecil ended up, stats-wise.

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From: Fire | Posted: 2/16/2006 2:06:46 PM | Message Detail
I do want to see another poll put up sometime after the release of Advent Children that asks something to the effect of "Did you like Final Fantasy VII : Advent Children?" along with one of the responses being, "Haven't seen it" or something.



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"What I have shown you is reality. What you remember, that is the illusion." -- Sephiroth
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 2/16/2006 2:11:51 PM | Message Detail
It was taken down later on, though, and the totals picked up.



Yes, they call that the day-vote.

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From: Fire | Posted: 2/16/2006 2:14:23 PM | Message Detail
Yes, they call that the day-vote.



Yeah. It helps to not have the ad there, too. Go check the other ad filled polls and you will also find their abysmal vote totals. The Advent Children poll was certainly affected by this because I, myself, was wondering why the vote totals were so ridiculously low for so long. It was still up well into the day, from what I recall. For most, it would be into the afternoon time before it was taken down.



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"What I have shown you is reality. What you remember, that is the illusion." -- Sephiroth
From: voltch | Posted: 2/16/2006 2:15:49 PM | Message Detail
what are the odds of magus failing to make this years contest?

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From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 2/16/2006 2:29:14 PM | Message Detail
Ah yes, the poll advertisement. I don't notice it so much, with Adblock, but I can see how it would ward off others.



Point partially withdrawn.



And now for something completely different. Just for fun...



- What would say was the strongest contestant these Contests have ever seen? '05 Link, with his 54.56% on Base Link? Or, was FF7 even stronger? If so, what 'Base Link' percentage would you give FF7?



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From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 2/16/2006 2:31:01 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and I ask because of a fun... project... that I'm starting work on.



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From: Slowflake | Posted: 2/16/2006 2:32:09 PM | Message Detail
2004 Link.

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Also, eat from garbage cans as much as possible, because nobody in America ever throws away anything that can make you fat. -MYC health tip
From: Fire | Posted: 2/16/2006 2:35:45 PM | Message Detail
Ah yes, the poll advertisement. I don't notice it so much, with Adblock, but I can see how it would ward off others.



Indeed. To get an idea, the polls with the advertisement had vote totals that were like so.



Poll #2288 - 55,257 (Note: It was not there for the entire 24 hour period.)

Poll #2287 - 46,575

Poll #2286 - 44,575



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"What I have shown you is reality. What you remember, that is the illusion." -- Sephiroth
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 2/16/2006 2:58:39 PM | Message Detail
But least-squares says '04 Link was only a 53.38% on Base Link! And he extended his win over Cloud... '04 Link may have been the strongest contestant we've ever seen run through an entire field of 64, but doesn't the '05 ToC show last year's Link was even better?



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From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 2/16/2006 5:46:20 PM | Message Detail
Spring 2004 Final Fantasy 7, though I find the question to be a bit ridiculous.



~*ST*~

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From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 2/16/2006 5:54:04 PM | Message Detail
Ok, and what BL value would you give it? 55%?



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From: LessThan3Presea | Posted: 2/16/2006 5:54:50 PM | Message Detail
Would Link all by himself beat Final Fantasy VII?



No.

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From: Big Bob | Posted: 2/16/2006 5:57:34 PM | Message Detail
I noticed that if you were to change two matches in 2002, things would be a lot different today in terms of the way we view characters.



If Sonic had beat Samus and Mega Man had beat Sephiroth, Mega Man (probably) would have beaten Sonic, then proceed to get SFF'd by Link.



Cloud's blowout to Sonic the next year wouldn't be as much of a surprise, but we'd be much more impressed with Sephiroth when he beat the hell out of Mega Man in 2003.



Sonic wouldn't seem as shameful losing to Samus in 2004, since everyone would have assumed it was more her newfound strength after MP than Sonic's weakness.



In 2005, Sonic would seem much stronger, closing the gap to Mega Man in a few years.



Thoughts?

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DA-DING Da-Ding da-ding-ding!
From: trannyscience | Posted: 2/16/2006 6:15:54 PM | Message Detail
I've no idea how you can judge who is stronger between FF7 and Link. if by "strength" you mean most distance between first and second, then yes, FF7 > Link.

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xyzzy
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 2/16/2006 6:15:54 PM | Message Detail
A great character will rarely beat a great game. Come on, how many good characters do you like more than good games?

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From: trannyscience | Posted: 2/16/2006 6:20:30 PM | Message Detail
and if you want to look at it that way, OOT would destroy Link in a contest setting.

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xyzzy
From: Big Bob | Posted: 2/16/2006 6:26:09 PM | Message Detail
Link would get SFF'd by himself.

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DA-DING Da-Ding da-ding-ding!
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 2/16/2006 6:37:24 PM | Message Detail
Eh... I don't think it's that clear cut. I think there are some cases, like Link, where the character is stronger than any game in his series could possibly be, because he embodies the best of all his games. If you hate Wind Waker but love LttP, you can still love Link. If you hate LttP but love Zelda 1, you can still like Link. Same for Sonic, same for Mega Man.



But FF7 I see as just the opposite. You can love Vincent but hate Cloud and Seph, and still like FF7. Or you could love Cloud but hate everyone else in the cast, but still like FF7.



This was the kind of reasoning some people used to explain why OoT could never beat FF7 during Spring '04. And it seemed to play out that way.



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From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 2/16/2006 6:56:26 PM | Message Detail
Eh... I don't think it's that clear cut. I think there are some cases, like Link, where the character is stronger than any game in his series could possibly be, because he embodies the best of all his games. If you hate Wind Waker but love LttP, you can still love Link. If you hate LttP but love Zelda 1, you can still like Link. Same for Sonic, same for Mega Man.



It's certainly true that Link gains strength from all of his games, but I still believe that games >>> characters. The only way Link would stand a chance would be if people were confused and saw it as Link's entire library against FFVII, in which case FFVII would likely lose.

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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 2/16/2006 7:25:33 PM | Message Detail
A weird thing is that I like Final Fantasy VII a lot as a game, but I don't really care for any of it's characters, besides Tifa and Reno. And Tifa and Reno aren't nearly the reasons why I like the game, but I just do. And I'm not even mention how I absolutely can't stand Sephiroth or half of the storyline. Sometimes, I have to ask myself why do I like the game so much.

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