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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 277
From: Kaxon | Posted: 3/1/2006 2:02:44 PM | Message Detail
People keep saying no one cares about Peach, but to that I respond:
WHO CARES ABOUT DONKEY KONG?!!


*raises hand*

He has not had a well-received game in over ten years and was even kicked out of Mario Party. Yet he was still able to go toe to toe with a post-Halo 2 Master Chief. I see no reason why Peach can not be just as popular as Donkey Kong.

He may not have had a good game in ten years, but at least he HAS had his own good series. Peach has only had one game of her own and it's not very good from what I've heard. DK's got a way bigger name, and his character design is inherently more appealing (monkeys > non-hot princesses).
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SC2k5 and SpC2k5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6.
From: Meteorush | Posted: 3/1/2006 2:04:07 PM | Message Detail
Seriously... the DKC series was huge back in the day.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 3/1/2006 2:06:15 PM | Message Detail
Super Princess Peach is currently averaging a 7.9 from review websites and/or magazines. That is definitely above the level of "not very good."

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"I haven't invested as much time into any game as I have [Twilight Princess]." -- Shigeru Miyamoto
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/1/2006 2:16:03 PM | Message Detail
I think the point they were trying to make is that it's not stellar, not that it's not good. Just a guess though.....
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From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 3/1/2006 2:18:20 PM | Message Detail
CJayC, I am begging you. Throw us a bone, for heaven's sake.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Meteorush | Posted: 3/1/2006 2:18:53 PM | Message Detail
Or a boner... either one works for me.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
From: Meteorush | Posted: 3/1/2006 2:22:21 PM | Message Detail
At 5:43 Ceejus will make a locked sticky topic telling us the new format and give us a link to the nomination phase.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/1/2006 2:31:52 PM | Message Detail
I think the Game Contest had nominations open the very end of February and the Villian Contest had 'em open on April...2nd? 3rd, maybe? Also keep in mind that this past summer showed a contest start in the middle of the month and -- I believe -- both the shortest nomination and prediction perdiods to date.

I'm not getting up hope.
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From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 3/1/2006 5:33:17 PM | Message Detail
I think the Game Contest had nominations open the very end of February and the Villian Contest had 'em open on April...2nd? 3rd, maybe? Also keep in mind that this past summer showed a contest start in the middle of the month and -- I believe -- both the shortest nomination and prediction perdiods to date.

Spring 2k4 started nominations on Feb. 25. Spring 2k5 stated nominations on April 4th. The Summer 2k5 nomination period was 4 days long. It was one of the shorter one, but wasn't the shortest. Summer 2k3's nomination period was about 2 days long. Summer 2k5 did have the shortest bracket making period.
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"Why did I become a lawyer in the first place...? Because someone has to look out for the people who have no one on their side." ~Phoenix Wright
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 3/1/2006 7:08:54 PM | Message Detail
CJay's swamped... 90 feedback issues he's got to get to, and he's hardly put a dent in the number all week. But maybe once he gets caught up?

...yeah, I've got a bad feeling about it too.

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"lol x-stats" - The Contest Simulator: http://thengamer.com/xstats
Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
From: trannyscience | Posted: 3/1/2006 7:10:59 PM | Message Detail
I read something about him being in vacation today over at MBH.
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xyzzy
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 3/1/2006 7:36:14 PM | Message Detail
Oh really? Game Contest tomorrow, then!

I think I'll start a nom drive for Majora's Mask.

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"lol x-stats" - The Contest Simulator: http://thengamer.com/xstats
Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
From: trannifer | Posted: 3/2/2006 2:42:19 AM | Message Detail
heh, look what I found while playing with old stats topics:

From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/13/2003 7:44:43 PM | Message Detail
Contest Odds
41,060 predictions

Odds
Link – 2 to 1
Sephiroth – 13 to 1
Mario – 14 to 1
Cloud – 17 to 1
Snake – 17 to 1
Vercetti – 18 to 1
Samus – 24 to 1
Master Chief – 28 to 1
Crono – 63 to 1
Mega Man – 69 to 1
Dante – 86 to 1
KOS-MOS – 112 to 1
Kefka – 144 to 1
Magus – 145 to 1
Alucard – 173 to 1
Zero – 174 to 1
Auron – 191 to 1
Zelda – 216 to 1
Squall – 222 to 1
Lara Croft – 233 to 1
Aeris – 257 to 1
Kirby – 276 to 1
CATS – 298 to 1 (yeah, right)
Gordon – 342 to 1
Shadow – 348 to 1
Ness – 351 to 1
Pac-Man – 395 to 1
Sora – 395 to 1
Sam Fisher – 407 to 1
Tidus – 423 to 1
Yuna – 432 to 1
Ryu – 442 to 1
Ramza – 477 to 1
Isaac – 501 to 1
Vyse – 513 to 1
Luigi – 520 to 1
Yoshi – 547 to 1
Raziel – 595 to 1
Kite – 662 to 1
Scorpion – 747 to 1
Ganondorf – 790 to 1
Jill – 805 to 1
Felix – 821 to 1
Conker – 838 to 1
Ryo – 955 to 1
Duke Nukem – 1001 to 1
Pikachu – 1027 to 1
Knuckles – 1141 to 1
Wario – 1141 to 1
Tails – 1244 to 1
Bowser – 1325 to 1
Max – 1391 to 1
Donkey Kong – 1416 to 1
Resetti – 1416 to 1
Tom Nook – 1579 to 1
Fox – 1642 to 1
Ken – 1785 to 1
Raiden – 1955 to 1
Ratchet – 2281 to 1
AiAi – 3158 to 1
Crash – 4562 to 1
Bomberman – 4562 to 1
Olimar – 5866 to 1

These are NOT accurate odds, as they don't take into account anything except the winner, and they don't take into account joke predictions.

However, they do say something about how high Link is thought of.

dunno if anyone besides me finds this interesting, but oh well!


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xyzzy
From: voltch | Posted: 3/2/2006 4:19:26 AM | Message Detail
hahahahaha at vercetti's odds.
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide wether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come
From: consolefreak | Posted: 3/2/2006 4:42:56 AM | Message Detail
What do those odds mean exactly?
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"Now I realise.. I wasn't pursuing Sephiroth.
I was being summoned by Sephiroth"
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 3/2/2006 6:23:24 AM | Message Detail
Those odds refer to the amount of people who took each character to win the contest.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
From: consolefreak | Posted: 3/2/2006 6:27:41 AM | Message Detail
That's what I thought, really.
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"Now I realise.. I wasn't pursuing Sephiroth.
I was being summoned by Sephiroth"
From: voltch | Posted: 3/2/2006 6:33:32 AM | Message Detail
Kos-Mos odds compared to ganondorf O_o
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide wether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 3/2/2006 6:37:31 AM | Message Detail
Yeah. KOS-MOS near the top? I mean, I can see hype for Master Chief and Vercetti but...
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Ippen shinde miru?
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 3/2/2006 6:38:39 AM | Message Detail
Kefka had better odds than Magus, heh.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Tidus, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/2/2006 6:52:07 AM | Message Detail
Poor Raiden; he deserved better odds.....
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From: LessThan3Presea | Posted: 3/2/2006 6:56:03 AM | Message Detail
That's what happens when you face Solid Snake in the first round.
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"A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/2/2006 6:56:57 AM | Message Detail
This is true.
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From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 3/2/2006 9:30:14 AM | Message Detail
I dreamt last night that CJay opened nominations for a new Game Contest starting tonight. Everyone was allowed to nominate 10 games of their choosing, like a standard Summer Contest.

Make me a prophet, Jeff!

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"lol x-stats" - The Contest Simulator: http://thengamer.com/xstats
Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/2/2006 9:46:11 AM | Message Detail
Ya know, I just got to thinkin'...for as much as we all love say-so in nominations, do you think we could get away with CJay picking the games and seeds for the next Game Contest? It wouldn't ever work again for the Character Contests, but the very first contest in 2k2 was essentially his picking with the recommendations of afew CE members (should memory serve me right)...and, since then, we've had three summer contests and a contest based on villains that were based on nominations. We've only had two game contests -- one being a bracket -- and both having controversial means of nominations. We also all agree that going strictly by either the Game Contest or the Top 100 List is inaccurate and unreliable...

...not that I agree with doing it (I don't), but I'll play devil's advocate for a second: could we have a better -- or at least more unpredictable -- bracket in the Game Contest if we let CJay control the entire set-up like he did in 2k2 once before that division of contests gets as predictable as the Character Contests? And, if so, would it be worth giving up your say-so in trying to get your particular favorites in/as a better seed?
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From: LessThan3Presea | Posted: 3/2/2006 9:53:55 AM | Message Detail
As long as FFVIII, FFX, and MGS3 get in there somehow, Ceej can do whatever he wants.
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"A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul
From: LessThan3Presea | Posted: 3/2/2006 9:55:33 AM | Message Detail
What's the link to the top 100 list again?
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"A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/2/2006 9:56:13 AM | Message Detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/top10/top10_100.html
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From: LessThan3Presea | Posted: 3/2/2006 9:57:32 AM | Message Detail
Okay, good. I'm gonna work on somethin' here.
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"A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul
From: Haste2 | Posted: 3/2/2006 10:09:05 AM | Message Detail
Hm...what would you guys guess for the percentage that picked Zelda: OoT as their top game?

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: therealmnm | Posted: 3/2/2006 10:17:31 AM | Message Detail
I think considerably less than Final Fantasy VII for sure. I think OoT strength lies in being a favorite of many people, but not the favorite of many people. There are too many popular Nintendo games around for it to consistently land as the top dog on a large amount of lists. 15% would be the most I would expect.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: MMXC, Fight Night R2, Threads of Fate, Jade Empire
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/2/2006 10:17:37 AM | Message Detail
What was the final percentage for those who picked FF7 as #1? 24%, I think? If so, give me...17% for LoZ:OoT.
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From: LessThan3Presea | Posted: 3/2/2006 10:22:00 AM | Message Detail
Okay, let's assume CJayC released a bracket without any nominations. He just seeded it based on the top 64 games from the top 100 list. It would look like this:

Division 1

(1) Final Fantasy VII
(8) Baldur’s Gate II: Shadows of Amn

(4) Xenogears
(5) Doom

(3) Super Metroid
(6) Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty

(2) Kingdom Hearts
(7) Half-Life: Counter-Strike

Division 2

(1) Metal Gear Solid
(8) Suikoden II

(4) Half-Life 2
(5) Devil May Cry

(3) Final Fantasy VIII
(6) God of War

(2) Halo: Combat Evolved
(7) Age of Empires II: The Age of Kings

Division 3

(1) Super Mario Brothers 3
(8) Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos

(4) Pokemon Red
(5) Earthbound

(3) Diablo II
(6) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

(2) Final Fantasy X
(7) Resident Evil

Division 4

(1) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
(8) Super Mario Kart

(4) Metroid Prime
(5) Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic

(3) Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater
(6) Perfect Dark

(2) Super Mario 64
(7) Secret of Mana

Division 5

(1) Super Smash Brothers Melee
(8) Pokemon Gold

(4) Grand Theft Auto III
(5) Sonic the Hedgehog 2

(3) Final Fantasy Tactics
(6) The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask

(2) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
(7) Fire Emblem

Division 6

(1) Chrono Trigger
(8) Burnout 3: Takedown

(4) The Legend of Zelda
(5) Grand Theft Auto: Vice City

(3) Super Mario Brothers
(6) Chrono Cross

(2) Resident Evil 4
(7) Soul Calibur

Division 7

(1) GoldenEye 007
(8) Mortal Kombat

(4) Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars
(5) World of Warcraft

(3) StarCraft
(6) Street Fighter II: The World Warrior

(2) Final Fantasy VI
(7) Advance Wars

Division 8

(1) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
(8) Contra

(4) Half-Life
(5) Tetris

(3) Super Mario World
(6) Final Fantasy IX

(2) Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
(7) Final Fantasy IV


Any objections? Good bracket?
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"A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/2/2006 10:22:09 AM | Message Detail
I'll agree with therealmnm to a degree:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2185
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2186

About 12.5% more of GameFAQs has played LoZ:OoT than FF7, and it's been released on two different systems. However, it's rare you'll find on any site where 41+% of a site's population has beaten a game twice or more (three times, myself)...and that's just hard to compete with.
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From: Applekidjosh | Posted: 3/2/2006 10:22:58 AM | Message Detail
HaRR, if you're looking for the wild unpredictability and crazy matches of SC2k2 I don't think it's possible anymore unless Ceej goes out of his way to make the bracket poorly. He know what's popular on this site as well as we do, so he'd be able to select games and seed about as well as we would.

For instance, in 2k2 who thought Crono would be a huge favorite on this site? But now that we know, nobody would understimate Crono or Chrono Trigger.
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Accio Captain Planet! See? A one post summon!
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/2/2006 10:29:05 AM | Message Detail
(7) Half-Life: Counter-Strike

Could make for geat upset-potential where it's at.


(3) Diablo II
(6) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

(3) Final Fantasy Tactics
(6) The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask
(2) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
(7) Fire Emblem

(3) Super Mario Brothers
(6) Chrono Cross
(2) Resident Evil 4
(7) Soul Calibur

(3) Super Mario World
(6) Final Fantasy IX
(2) Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
(7) Final Fantasy IV


The other great things I see.


Division 7

If it weren't for FF3/6, I would love this division.
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From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 3/2/2006 10:32:46 AM | Message Detail
Division 1

(1) Final Fantasy VII

(4) Xenogears

(3) Super Metroid

(2) Kingdom Hearts

Division 2

(1) Metal Gear Solid

(4) Half-Life 2

(3) Final Fantasy VIII

(2) Halo: Combat Evolved

Division 3

(1) Super Mario Brothers 3

(4) Pokemon Red (Great match)

(6) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

(2) Final Fantasy X

Division 4

(1) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past

(4) Metroid Prime

(3) Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater

(2) Super Mario 64

Division 5

(1) Super Smash Brothers Melee

(5) Sonic the Hedgehog 2

(3) Final Fantasy Tactics

(2) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas

Division 6

(1) Chrono Trigger

(4) The Legend of Zelda

(3) Super Mario Brothers

(2) Resident Evil 4

Division 7

(1) GoldenEye 007

(5) World of Warcraft

(3) StarCraft

(2) Final Fantasy VI

Division 8

(1) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time

(5) Tetris

(3) Super Mario World

(2) Castlevania: Symphony of the Night

Round 2

Division 1

(1) Final Fantasy VII

(3) Super Metroid


Division 2

(1) Metal Gear Solid

(3) Final Fantasy VIII

Division 3

(1) Super Mario Brothers 3

(2) Final Fantasy X

Division 4

(1) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past

(2) Super Mario 64

Division 5

(1) Super Smash Brothers Melee

(3) Final Fantasy Tactics

Division 6

(1) Chrono Trigger

(3) Super Mario Brothers

Division 7

(1) GoldenEye 007

(2) Final Fantasy VI

Division 8

(1) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time

(3) Super Mario World

Round 3

Division 1

(1) Final Fantasy VII

Division 2

(3) Final Fantasy VIII (MGS almost lost to FFT)

Division 3

(1) Super Mario Brothers 3

Division 4

(1) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past

Division 5

(1) Super Smash Brothers Melee

Division 6

(1) Chrono Trigger

Division 7

(2) Final Fantasy VI

Division 8

(1) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time

Elite Eight

FFVII VS FFVIII
SMB3 VS Lttp
SSBM VS Ct
FFVI VS OoT

Final four

FFVII VS Lttp
CT VS OoT

Final

FFVII VS OoT



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transience: I'm in everyone's sig!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/2/2006 10:35:53 AM | Message Detail
That's somewhat true AKJ, but there's still some things that we don't know, he doesn't know, and some trends we've seen. For example, say he made the bracket and he did it by era again (which would piss most/all of us off, but anyways)...and RE4 was given the #1 seed in the 128-Division while SSBM took #2. Sure, we wouldn't take RE4 over SSBM, but given how high it placed on the Top 100 List before its PS2 post was released (#14) and its dominance in the GotY polls this year, how many other games would you dare to take over it?

We had shoddy seeding in the Game Contest too despite knowing the nomination-technique was, well...bad (Halo/Starcraft, anybody?), but you can still find games that can argue for that high seed, and you can't honestly say it was easy to pick against Halo in that match.
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From: therealmnm | Posted: 3/2/2006 10:42:53 AM | Message Detail
Would you guys take Halo in a rematch?
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: MMXC, Fight Night R2, Threads of Fate, Jade Empire
From: LessThan3Presea | Posted: 3/2/2006 10:44:34 AM | Message Detail
I would, but I'm a sucker for chic upset picks.
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"A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/2/2006 10:45:36 AM | Message Detail
As long as it's not a 1/16-match again, yes...and even then, most likely. I don't see rallying and hype going Starcraft's way being NEAR as strong as the first time, and the more evenly-seeded it'll be the less likely I see such a monstrous movement. Give me that, and I'll take Halo.

Oh yeah, and Halo 2 is out now, though that arguably didn't help out MC last year.....
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/2/2006 10:48:11 AM | Message Detail
By the way, somebody should make the next CS&D topic; I shouldn't make two in a row.

Also, though I don't think Ulti's on, should he see this, is there any way we can get the Four-Pack Of Fun board on the links in the first post? I think it could make for a nice addition.
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From: LessThan3Presea | Posted: 3/2/2006 10:49:31 AM | Message Detail
I'll get on it.
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"A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul
From: Haste2 | Posted: 3/2/2006 10:51:19 AM | Message Detail
I can't believe I never thought of making the bracket that way! Nice thinking.

Potentially good Round 1 matches:

(4) Xenogears
(5) Doom

(3) Super Metroid
(6) Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty

(4) Half-Life 2
(5) Devil May Cry

(4) Pokemon Red - this match kinda parallels Xenogears/Doom.
(5) Earthbound

(3) Diablo II
(6) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

(4) The Legend of Zelda
(5) Grand Theft Auto: Vice City

(3) Super Mario Brothers
(6) Chrono Cross

(2) Resident Evil 4
(7) Soul Calibur

(4) Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars
(5) World of Warcraft

(3) Super Mario World
(6) Final Fantasy IX

(2) Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
(7) Final Fantasy IV

(3) Final Fantasy Tactics
(6) The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask

A bit on the easy side, but not bad.

Good Round 2 setups:
Super Metroid/MGS2 vs. KH/Half-Life: CS (darn good 4-pack here)
MGS vs. Half-Life 2
FF8 vs. Halo
Zelda:WW vs. FFX
MGS3 vs. Mario 64
FFT/Zelda:MM vs. GTA:SA
SMB3 vs. RE4/Soul Calibur
Goldeneye vs. SMRPG
FF6 vs. Starcraft

Good Round 3 setups:
MGS/Half-Life 2 vs. FF8/Halo
SSBM vs. GTA:SA

One good match for this round, really.

Good Round 4 setups:
SMB3 vs. Zelda: LttP
SSBM vs. CT

Rounds 5 and 6 are obvious.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/2/2006 10:58:24 AM | Message Detail
Heh...I don't know if there's enough games in every era to do this, but is there anybody who would make an S-curve bracket like that based on era like the Game Contest was? Quickly skimming for just five seconds, I already see that SMB/LoZ would be set-up in the 8-bit Division.
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From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 3/2/2006 12:01:40 PM | Message Detail
Oh yeah, and Halo 2 is out now, though that arguably didn't help out MC last year.....

: (, what about if I only look at his match with Crono? since the other two were....um...invalid?

>_>
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/2/2006 12:02:31 PM | Message Detail
Heh, that's why I said arguably.
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From: transience | Posted: 3/2/2006 12:07:07 PM | Message Detail
I made a bracket using the top 64 games once but never posted it, and My Immortal ran a quick little contest doing it as well. (LTTP won, like it always does)

personally, I think a better bracket could be made, especially considering the drop down list bias. nominations really are the best way to go.

as for that 2k3 list, I thought Dante's predictions were interesting. Kefka and a couple others get the casuals, but Dante may be even worse. remember Vincent's prediction percentage?

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xyzzy
From: transience | Posted: 3/2/2006 12:19:00 PM | Message Detail
to add to the bracket idea, I think it'd be a boring bracket thanks to the Super Seven. the 1 seeds would pretty much walk to the final four.

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xyzzy
From: Meteorush | Posted: 3/2/2006 12:25:37 PM | Message Detail
I'd walk to your final four.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
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