MGS3 sold worse than those before it and Snake still accumulated a boost. Hell, he wasn't even in the game. I don't see why Dante couldn't get as much if not more from DMC3.

Bowser had plenty of reason to overperform on Snake. That pic made an absolute joke of Snake, and I guarantee you that people who didn't really love either character would pick the one who is portrayed better in the pic. I know you've never been a fan of the pic factor, and this won't change your opinion on it, but it's a very real factor.

As for Kirby overperforming on Bowser, I already said I'm not too sold on it myself, but I think it's a real possibility, and even if there was nothing odd in that match, everything else I believe in is more than enough for me to think Dante could take out Kirby.

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I think Kirby overperformed on Bowser, but Bowser didn't overperform on Snake. People who have been keeping up with the contest know that Kirby would have his ass kicked by Bowser, but rode UDF (UnderDog Factor) to a respectable loss. I'd still take him over Dante, especially with Kirby's Gamecube game coming (GC-ers are starved)
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DA-DING Da-Ding da-ding-ding!

UDF?

Okay, now people are just making up factors.

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Yeah, that's just plain stupid. After Kirby made Tidus his ***** in the fashion that we know, it's no surprise he came this close to Bowser.
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Y'know, a girl should really consider a change of career when getting shot out of a mass driver at hypersonic speeds seems mundane.
-Samus Aran (M''')

The 2K4-2K5 offseason didn't feel this long... I wonder why.

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I think Bowser was overrated and so was Vincent's division.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush

Touching on a few things...

MGS3 sold worse than those before it and Snake still accumulated a boost. Hell, he wasn't even in the game. I don't see why Dante couldn't get as much if not more from DMC3.

I've said it before... You don't need to have an actual increase in popularity to get a contest boost. You can get a contest boost simply by giving your fans a reason to come to the site. I think the Nintendo boost is proof of that. MGS3 definitely caused more Solid Snake fans to come to the site, and DMC3 probably had the same effect for Dante.

Bowser had plenty of reason to overperform on Snake. That pic made an absolute joke of Snake, and I guarantee you that people who didn't really love either character would pick the one who is portrayed better in the pic. I know you've never been a fan of the pic factor, and this won't change your opinion on it, but it's a very real factor.

I've been an advocate of this factor for the longest, but the majority of the stats topic disagreed with me. The way you explained it is the exact same way I feel. I think that very situation played a small factor in a number of matches, but I won't get into details.

UDF?

Okay, now people are just making up factors.

I actually touched on this a while back. While it may not be a common things, I think there are certain situations were that took place. With Kirby/Bowser, the reasoning is that many people figured that Bowser would win that match easily, so fans of both decided to give Kirby sympathy votes to Kirby. Other situations of this could be Frog/Solid Snake and Magus/Link. It would take a huge fan favorite for it to mean anything though. And it probably won't account for much... maybe a couple percentage points. But I do believe it may exist in some form. Underdog, bandwagon, call it whatever you want.

As said before though, Kirby proved most of it was legit with the way he pounded Tidus' face in.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: MMXC, Fight Night R2, Threads of Fate, Jade Empire

Maybe Bowser and Ganon on Seph was more "Underdog Factor" than straight anti-voting? It would make sense.

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I personally don't believe the Devil Division is very overrated, if at all. Squall remains in the same proportion to Samus as he was in 2003, hinting at that debatable Samus/Link SFF. Not to mention, if Squall was at that strength in 2004, Kirby's boost doesn't seem all that out of whack compared to everyone else.

(Oh no! He's trying to use the stats to prove a point! Get him!)
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Nominate Serge (Chrono Cross) for SC2K6!
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I think Kirby's 48% against Bowser was pretty reasonable. Yoshi received 44% against Bowser, and it's been suggested in 2K3 and 2K4 that Kirby > Yoshi. Plus, Kirby should be increasing in popularity more than other Nintendo characters due to what Kirby has brought this generation.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Nor does Luigi look like he boosted like crazy either, by the way.
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To me, "underdog factor" would be the counter to bracket-voting. A person who normally bracket-votes instead votes for the character they love most, because they believe that the character in their bracket will win easily.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Nor does Luigi look like he boosted like crazy either, by the way.

Heh, remember that Luigi/KOS-MOS was predicted to be 54/46 in Luigi's favor in 2K3.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Well, that would be a combination of Luigi rising and KOS-MOS dropping. I didn't say Luigi didn't increase at all. It just doesn't look quite as dramatic that way.
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Nominate Serge (Chrono Cross) for SC2K6!
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Heck, 2004 KOS-MOS beats 2005 KOS-MOS with 56%, for what it's worth.
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Nominate Serge (Chrono Cross) for SC2K6!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=25921991

Squall remains in the same proportion to Samus as he was in 2003, hinting at that debatable Samus/Link SFF

Considering The Boost that all Nintendo characters got, the proportion between the two would most likely not still be the same unless Squall got a similar boost to keep up with her.

On a semi-related note, I think Samus got UDF in her match with Cloud in 2004.
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"You know it could be like this. Just like this, always. "--Jack Twist, Brokeback Mountain
Team X in Trivia XVII

...dude. Samus is strong, but not THAT strong.
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Y'know, a girl should really consider a change of career when getting shot out of a mass driver at hypersonic speeds seems mundane.
-Samus Aran (M''')

I've said it before... You don't need to have an actual increase in popularity to get a contest boost. You can get a contest boost simply by giving your fans a reason to come to the site. I think the Nintendo boost is proof of that. MGS3 definitely caused more Solid Snake fans to come to the site, and DMC3 probably had the same effect for Dante.

I don't disagree, Chichiri was trying to say that DMC3 did next to nothing for Dante.

Squall remains in the same proportion to Samus as he was in 2003, hinting at that debatable Samus/Link SFF

I don't really think the devil division is overrated, but I do think that Samus is underrated, not much, but still a decent sized amount.

I actually touched on this a while back. While it may not be a common things, I think there are certain situations were that took place. With Kirby/Bowser, the reasoning is that many people figured that Bowser would win that match easily, so fans of both decided to give Kirby sympathy votes to Kirby. Other situations of this could be Frog/Solid Snake and Magus/Link. It would take a huge fan favorite for it to mean anything though. And it probably won't account for much... maybe a couple percentage points. But I do believe it may exist in some form. Underdog, bandwagon, call it whatever you want.

I see what you're saying here... and I think it could take place in a few matches, say Bowser & Ganon on Seph, and the like, but I don't think it really occured in Kirby/Bowser. I don't disregard it completely though.



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Not exactly contest-related, but any and all day vote turnarounds have been beaten to the punch today. When I woke up this morning (8 AM Eastern), the poll was dead even, and just look at it now.
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Y'know, a girl should really consider a change of career when getting shot out of a mass driver at hypersonic speeds seems mundane.
-Samus Aran (M''')

Seriously?

When I woke up (12 Eastern) I thought to myself, "damn I bet the Steelers will have 80% of the vote" and proceeded to vote for them, I really didn't think that many people had poor NFL predicting skills.

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That's probably the European vote at work. You know, kinda like how Americans would vote on a Soccer World Cup final.
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Y'know, a girl should really consider a change of career when getting shot out of a mass driver at hypersonic speeds seems mundane.
-Samus Aran (M''')

Considering The Boost that all Nintendo characters got, the proportion between the two would most likely not still be the same unless Squall got a similar boost to keep up with her.

So where do you think Frog stands? Remember, Riku gets closer and closer to Sora (wherever you think he stands) the farther up you adjust him.
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Nominate Serge (Chrono Cross) for SC2K6!
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So where do you think Frog stands? Remember, Riku gets closer and closer to Sora (wherever you think he stands) the farther up you adjust him.

My personal X-Stats look like this. I didn't adjust Sora or Yoshi.

Sora: 25.55
Frog: 25.37
Chun-Li: 24.79
Yoshi: 24.64
Pac-Man: 24.63
Riku: 24.52

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"You know it could be like this. Just like this, always. "--Jack Twist, Brokeback Mountain
Team X in Trivia XVII

Jeez. I have Alucard higher than you have Sora.
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Chuck Norris roundhouse kicks the cereal into his mouth. You can't roundhouse kick soggy cereal. -Icon on cereal with milk

Yoshi: 24.64
Pac-Man: 24.63

Man, talk about major SFF.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush

How high did the Steelers get on today's poll?
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush

Toaster Oven: Final Fantasy 7 [6] - Phoenix Wright [9]
Random Insanity: Final Fantasy 7 [1] - Phoenix Wright [4]
Poll of the Day: Final Fantasy 7 [11] - Phoenix Wright [14]
Current Events: Final Fantasy 7 [9] - Phoenix Wright [10]
Hacked: Final Fantasy 7 [11] - Phoenix Wright [10]
LUE: Final Fantasy 7 [54] - Phoenix Wright [80]
Board 8: Final Fantasy 7 [66] - Phoenix Wright [77]
TOTAL: Final Fantasy 7 [158] - Phoenix Wright [204]



FF7 gets bit by the upset big again.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Deus Ex, Perfect Dark, FFTA, MMXC

"I don't disagree, Chichiri was trying to say that DMC3 did next to nothing for Dante."

No I wasn't. I was saying his boost wasn't overly significant. He just doesn't have it in him to tackle Kirby.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris

I personally don't believe Kirby overperformed on Bowser. Maybe Bowser overperformed on Snake though.

Whereas I feel the opposite about those. Both have their fair arguments though.


So where do you think Frog stands? Remember, Riku gets closer and closer to Sora (wherever you think he stands) the farther up you adjust him.

Judging by my recently-readjusted stats.....

26) Sora 26.09%
37) Frog 21.94%
40) Riku 21.20%
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Sora getting SFFd isn't out of the question, I say.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Deus Ex, Perfect Dark, FFTA, MMXC

I'm gonna bring up something I said the other day in my Four-Pack Of Fun board and then build upon it (it's big...so, if you don't know if ya wanna read it or not, it's about Ness/CJ):



If I did the numbers right, adjusting Auron's 2k4 four-pack by Scorpion 2k3, Ness is put at 22.94% on Link 2k4/2k5...or, if you would rather adjust by Tails 2k3, Ness would be at 21.36% on Link 2k4/2k5 (though, if you think Dante under-performed in Sonic/Dante, that means this number should be higher). Those numbers were assumed by many to be about where Ness should be before 2k5. Using those two numbers, that would mean CJ should be at 20.58% or 19.16% (whichever you fancy). Using those value for CJ, that would mean he would get either 48.31% or 44.98% (again, whatever you like). Keep in mind that, should memory serve me right, Vercetti/CJ had a match at IGN last year and it was the closest match of their contest (if not the closest, it was still close), and CJ's game ousted Vercetti's game in the Top 100 List (#11 > #35). From there, many people assumed Ness had gained last year; between The Boost and Jak > CJ by virtue of common opponent, few people would say he didn't gain at least a little bit, surely. The fact that Ness even beat CJ, much less with a solid win, made people open their eyes about Ness. We also saw in the Top 100 List that, on top of the usual love SSBM gets by snagging #6, Earthbound also did well for itself by getting #37...

...but then, why is Ness now considered around Kefka's level (20.82%)? I've often heard that they would have a great match -- many times from myself, heh -- but I recently gave him a match in a four-pack against Ryu Hayabusa (21.76%, assuming no Mario/Zero SFF), and only two people there gave him the win (not including myself since I didn't post my prediction in it). I've thought more on it lately, and it just suddenly seems like it's almost uneducated of us to not give Ness more credit than what we've done. It just feels like we've under-estimated him since the board seems to stand against CJ so much, despite being the huge board favorite in their match.

Did Mario -- in arguably his best year yet -- SFF him too much for people to think Ness is that strong? Are people that quick to discredit CJ for being a less definable character than Vercetti? Is the common consensus that positive that the race card played a part in his sole match that it means Ness only winning by 55.14% is proof he went down when Nintendo in general was impressive last year? I'd like to hear thoughts on this.
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The main reason for people discrediting CJ is probably Officer Tenpenny. He was last in the VC, so it's not too far a stretch to assume his counterpart is weak as well.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

This is true, but let's not forget that was also the only NPC from GTA we've seen AND I think it was before the Xbox and PC ports of GTA:SA when Liquid/Tenpenny went down. Not to mention Liquid was probably SFF'd by Sephiroth...Tenpenny is still undeniably a weak weak character, but judging by him to CJ probably isn't the way to go about it.
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Miss my Four-Pack Of Fun? Go here:
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*minor GTA: VC spoilers*











Do people really think Sonny, Vercetti's counterpart, would do any better than Officer Tenpenny?

I'm not surprised people are hesitant in picking Ness over Hayabusa; assuming Zero didn't get SFFed, Ness would have to have been SFFed down to ~63% of his base strength (roughly 10% against Mario) - incidentally, Mario beat Zero with 63% who beat Hayabusa with 63%.

Personally, I don't see Ness more than 3% below DK (though I don't trust the Chief).
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voltch... he come to town... come to own... the silly gurus...

Bowser's SFF'd the hell out of Ness before, and Ness was behind Auron/Seph one year too...and yet, you can take either of those UNadjusted values and Mario still safely outdoes expectations in their second-round match. Mario's known as the king of SFF anyways; he's the only character many people will take seriously when you mention rSFF. Even if you don't think Samus > Mario (which I don't), Mario chopped Samus down to size using SFF when Link couldn't SFF her (to be fair, Wind Waker Link...but that's still Link).
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Mario's known as the king of SFF anyways

On a different topic, I'm not sure why Mario gets that title. After what Link did in 2004 (Ganondorf, Yoshi, Mega Man), the SFF crown should be undisputed.
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SC2k5 and SpC2k5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6.

Do people really think Sonny, Vercetti's counterpart, would do any better than Officer Tenpenny?

I hope not, considering Sonny only appeared in person at the beginning and the final mission, whereas Tenpenny played a much bigger role, and had the SJF as well.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
"I set my ATM card's number to "0001" because I'm number one!" - Manfred von Karma

On a different topic, I'm not sure why Mario gets that title. After what Link did in 2004 (Ganondorf, Yoshi, Mega Man), the SFF crown should be undisputed.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1361

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2122

Now consider the relative strengths of Mario and Link.

MARIO is the SFF King. Link actually ain't as handy with it, Ganondorf aside, because he's so damn strong already (heck, I think it's been said Mega got more SFF on Yoshi than Link).

What Mario did against Samus was impressive, but he's never come close to delivering the kind of beatdown Link did on Ganondorf, and he never will. As I see it, Mario's more the king of pulling miracles out of his ass than anything else.
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Vercetti/CJ had a match at IGN last year and it was the closest match of their contest (if not the closest, it was still close)

Solid Snake/Naked Snake was by far the closest, heh. So do we think Naked Snake would basically serve as a Solid Snake clone in strength?

I guess I should ask the same thing about Mega Man and X.
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What Mario did against Samus was impressive, but he's never come close to delivering the kind of beatdown Link did on Ganondorf, and he never will. As I see it, Mario's more the king of pulling miracles out of his ass than anything else.

Maybe because... *gasp* they're from the same series?

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Festivus II - Fondling Kittens Since '76

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1753
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1750
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Maybe because... *gasp* they're from the same series?

Mac already posted my response. When Mario can do that to someone from his own series (who's proportionally as strong as Ganon), get back to me.
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SC2k5 and SpC2k5 First Vote Champion
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Don't hold the fact that Ganondorf's prime selling point is that he's the main villain of the Zelda series against Mario. He's a leech. Bowser, on the other hand, is not.
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Nominate Serge (Chrono Cross) for SC2K6!
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True, true. You're far more likely to find a person who likes Bowser than Ganon.

I didn't even think this was an argument...
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Plus, the thing is...Link would probably get nearly as much on Ness before SFF as Mario got on him with SFF. At least a tripling, I'd say.

Well, I shouldn't say "nearly" in that case since it takes as much of a difference to jump from a tripling to a quadrupling as it does from a doubling to a tripling, despite the percentage difference.
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Nominate Serge (Chrono Cross) for SC2K6!
Nominate Seifer Almasy (Final Fantasy VIII) for SC2K6!

Don't hold the fact that Ganondorf's prime selling point is that he's the main villain of the Zelda series against Mario. He's a leech. Bowser, on the other hand, is not.

Leonhart's already given me response.

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Festivus II - Fondling Kittens Since '76

True, true. You're far more likely to find a person who likes Bowser than Ganon.

Ganon's way cooler than Bowser is. Also way cooler than Link and Mario, for that matter.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.