Ulti, have you not played Lufia 2 or Lunar?
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris

there is one FF too much for my liking and no chrono trigger.
it's good to have FFs cause they almost define the genre but too much can be a bad thing.
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Nominate CATS,Jay Solano,Weedle and Ifnkovhgroghprm for sc2k6

No and no, C.

I'm still at the "submitted" stage...

WTF?

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Dragon Warrior, Deus Ex, Perfect Dark, FFTA

You must. In fact, go play Lufia 2 now. Seriously, get a copy *ahem* and play it post haste.
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Take a hike, and don't forget the trail mix *****. Hijack - MC Chris

Slow got rejected!
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Xbox 360 melts disks!
And people made jokes about the PS3 being a grill. ~bokunokuso

I swear, it's still written "submitted" on there.
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Y'know, a girl should really consider a change of career when getting shot out of a mass driver at hypersonic speeds seems mundane.
-Samus Aran (M''')

Okay, this feels like it should be in a contest stats and discussion topic. (originally going to be posted in a Four-Pack of Fun topic) I'm going to say here why I think Gordon isn't as strong as he looks right now, and how it's mainly because of his opponent being the strongest he's faced yet this past year.

Gordon's 25000 diehards
Anyway, the reason you adjust Gordon Freeman is because his voting base is bizarre. Like Master Chief's. Thus his X-Stat value wildly fluctuates based on the strength of his opponent. I'm thinking it's like 25000 people out of 100000 will vote Gordon Freeman over pretty much anybody. Then you give him a basic extrapolated match vs the opponent with the rest of the voters (and this x-stat value would be very weak).

Deceptive little diehards, they are
So, you match him against stronger opponents, his static 25000 makes him look better and better, despite his ability to actually win. Say Gordon's at 11% on Base Link ignoring his static 25000.

Oddly enough this formula makes his 2k5 value work out almost perfectly against Leon
If we were to match him against Leon Kennedy with this formula, then Gordon gets ~20% of the remaining 75000 votes against Leon Kennedy (27% vs 11% = a 80-20 blowout), and then he gets his 25000 diehard votes. So Gordon finishes with 40% against Leon. Just under his X-Stat value that he had this year.

Psi-Tempest his ass!
Now we match him against Lloyd Irving. So he gets ~32% of the remaining 75000 votes against Lloyd Irving. (Lloyd being at 17.17%). And then his static 25000. He ends with 49024 votes, and Lloyd ends with 50976 votes. Lloyd wins with about 51%. Gordon's X-Stat value is now about 16.8%

Does that make sense? Kind of a mouth full, I'll admit. The moral of the story here is that Gordon Freeman would still lose to Lloyd Irving in this example, despite looking primed to take him with ease if we just base it off of Leon Kennedy.

I'm not saying that's an exact formula, though it is funny that it worked right that way. I'm just saying that's the main reason why Gordon looks so much better this year. Not because of Half Life 2.
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Raiden is still [20] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=25457391

sounds like the old "voter ceiling" idea that people used to associate with CATS.
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xyzzy

Well it's not a voter ceiling exactly. He's still perfectly capable of winning matches. In fact his actual match winning extrapolated value is somewhere between 16 and 17% in my example.
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Raiden is still [20] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=25457391

And by the way, I think CATS works the same way, just with different diehard and non diehard extrapolated values.

There is no ceiling, though. It's not a ceiling!
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Raiden is still [20] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=25457391

yeah, I know - I was just saying that the idea of "die-hard voters" and "voter ceiling" are similar.

I think I'd take Gordon over Lloyd, though. in fact, I'm sure I would.
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xyzzy

Technically it's a voter floor, actually. Heh.

I wouldn't necessarily take Lloyd over Freeman... well I would, (upset pick? ooh yeah!) but I wouldn't be confident about it. Either way, I do think that the 22.78% is significantly higher than he actually is.
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Raiden is still [20] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=25457391

Interesting 'cuz there are the die-hards who'll vote for Gordon like they do CATS. However. most of them are at the beginning of the polls, and we've seen the success they've had at the beginning of polls (staying even with Fisher and Ansem -- respectively -- until the morning vote is their best accomplishment). There are no 25,000 Gordon die-hards, as it's put.
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? A dying quadriplegic's final wish was to see him make the Character Battle...maybe.

What you are proposing is the exact same thing as a voter ceiling. You're suggesting that almost all voters fall into two groups: those who vote Gordon over almost everything and this who vote almost everything over Gordon with very few people inbetween the two extremes. Gordon always gets all the hardcore votes(to reach 40%) then hits a ceiling because almost everybody left will never vote for him. If it didn't apply to CATS it won't apply to Gordon. But it would be cool if it did because that would mean GFNW(and never falls below 40%) truly does exist.
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Ranulf: '''We run up the mountain as quickly as possible and smash the enemy commander!' Right?''
Ike: ''Right... How did you--''

Well those numbers aren't meant to be exact. They just happened to work out almost perfectly with GF vs Kennedy this year. It's the idea, here. There might only be 15000 that would vote Freeman over almost anybody. Or maybe it's just 25000 diehard PC (more likely now that I think about it) voters rather than GF voters, and he'd be SFFed out of his socks by another PC icon. Who knows?
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Raiden is still [20] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=25457391

I generally think of a "voter floor" as existing for "cult" characters, not for someone as mainstream as GF. I also think that higher votals hurt cult characters, as evidenced by Lloyd performing approximately equal to Mithos statistically.
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xyzzy

But it's not the same as a voter ceiling, because given a weak enough opponent he will win even with my bizarre formula. In fact the opponent doesn't have to be much weaker than Lloyd. And he'd still beat down Tanner with huge numbers just like we'd think he would.

All it does is make his X-Stat values harder to track and his percentage progression against opponents more skewed towards the middle.
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Raiden is still [20] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=25457391

For what it's worth, I would like to see Gordon/Diablo. However, outside of our board, Gordon isn't much different than any other character, correct? Then keep in mind that -- as of 2:25 AM Eastern-time (35 minutes before the polls start/end), there are 2588 users TOTAL online at GameFAQs right now, including ALL the boards. GFNW hardly goes outside of our board, I would assume, and that's the only thing that truly gives him die-hard votes that other characters don't get...so, while not everybody who votes because of GFNW stays up at the beginning of polls, it's hard to imagine so many more would come after the ones who stay up for this kind of thing.
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? A dying quadriplegic's final wish was to see him make the Character Battle...maybe.

It may not but a perfect ceiling, but it's pretty close. As you said you were expecting something like 11%BL ignoring his static votes. His opponent would have to be very, very weak to get any significant gain above his "ceiling". That's really not a whole lot better than a flat out ceiling.
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Ranulf: '''We run up the mountain as quickly as possible and smash the enemy commander!' Right?''
Ike: ''Right... How did you--''

I completely understand Lopen's argument, and I kinda agree as I've been trying to say the same thing. It's not a voter ceiling at all. With CATS, people were thinking that only a certain group of people would vote for him, and after that, practically NOBODY would.

With Gordon, he's simply saying that Gordon has a hardcore group of fans that will always be there for him (whether it be Half-Life fans, or PC gamers, or whatever). And outside of that group, the trends change and the percentage of those people actually voting for Gordon is noticeably less. So depending on who he is facing, that core group may make him look stronger than he actually is in the x-stats.

Of course, this same logic can be used for pretty much any character, as we generally don't try to break down voting for an individual character. But Gordon might be an extreme case, and probably the ONLY significant case that we have. Of course the only way this can be disproved is to put GF up against a respectable mid-carder and perhaps an elite as well for comparison. The only problem is that since GFNW, the study would probably take years. <_<
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

rather than trying to explain how it works, how about why it works? I could understand if it was a cult character like CATS, but GF doesn't strike me as that kind of character.
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xyzzy

Well as I said, it's more likely that Gordon would get "PC Die Hard votes". Much like I'd think Master Chief would get "X-Box Die Hard votes". Rather than the actual character getting these so called die hard votes. I know GF doesn't have some bizarre cult like CATS does.

And TRE, how is that any more a "ceiling" than Guybrush having a "ceiling" with his 10% X-Stat value? I'm not so much saying he has a ceiling as saying Gordon Freeman is weak. Yeah, he needs weak opponents to draw mass votes, just like any other weak character. I'm not seeing your point here.
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Raiden is still [20] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=25457391

Of course, this same logic can be used for pretty much any character, as we generally don't try to break down voting for an individual character. But Gordon might be an extreme case, and probably the ONLY significant case that we have. Of course the only way this can be disproved is to put GF up against a respectable mid-carder and perhaps an elite as well for comparison. The only problem is that since GFNW, the study would probably take years. <_<

Covered all my counter-points, heh. I think CATS is a better example than Gordon though if we're going to go in this direction, and CATS has shown he can somewhat-handle his own.
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? A dying quadriplegic's final wish was to see him make the Character Battle...maybe.

Oh, while I'm thinkin' about it Lopen...have you visited GFA today? =P
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? A dying quadriplegic's final wish was to see him make the Character Battle...maybe.

With CATS, people were thinking that only a certain group of people would vote for him, and after that, practically NOBODY would.

Lopen was expecting around 11%BL outside of the hardcore group. That's pretty close to "practically nobody". It's a more leinent form of the "voter ceiling" theory since it allows for the character to go past the ceiling against a really weak opponent, but the basic theory is still the same. You're expecting massive support from one set of voters and almost no support from everybody else and very few people in between the extremes.
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Ranulf: '''We run up the mountain as quickly as possible and smash the enemy commander!' Right?''
Ike: ''Right... How did you--''

Absolutely. I went, I rallied... in my own mostly ineffective way. Raiden and Wario will win, damn it!

And TRE, I say it again... it's not a voter ceiling, it's GF being weak.
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Raiden is still [20] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=25457391

Lopen's 11% example was rather extreme, but it certainly could be a possibility in a toned down way. Of course, we probably won't be able to prove it so it doesn't make much of a difference. For example, at what point does his "dedicated" fanbase abandon him? Would they vote for him over the Cloud and Link? Or would they abandon him for a well known midcarder like Luigi? And in reality, the answer is probably all of the above as it would most likely vary among the fanbase, so we would end up getting mixed results.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

And TRE, how is that any more a "ceiling" than Guybrush having a "ceiling" with his 10% X-Stat value?

It's different because it occurs at a much higher vote amount. In the case of Guybrush, you have a small group who fall into the extreme of almost always vote for Guybrush and the vast majority who vote for almost anything over Guybrush.
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Ranulf: '''We run up the mountain as quickly as possible and smash the enemy commander!' Right?''
Ike: ''Right... How did you--''

It's FINALLY here...


...and we can't even see the votes, heh.
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? A dying quadriplegic's final wish was to see him make the Character Battle...maybe.

In reality it's probably more the case of something like...

Among 30000 fans (the primarily PC gamers... his "diehards"), Gordon has an X-Stat strength of 70% on Base Link.

Among the remaining 70000 fans, Gordon has an X-Stat strength of 12% on Base Link. I mean, the idea is the same. I'm just simplifying it to achieve essentially the same result.
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Raiden is still [20] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=25457391

So, essentially, he's strongest in demographics that are to his advantage. That's how every character is.
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? A dying quadriplegic's final wish was to see him make the Character Battle...maybe.

But it's much more noticeable in his case. Most characters are not split like that with the 70-12 thing going on... or at least one would think not. Otherwise the X-Stats wouldn't work at all. Go ahead and match that Gordon with Dante and then match him with Lloyd Irving. His match with Dante suggests a victory over Lloyd, yet he still loses to Lloyd.
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Raiden is still [20] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=25457391

Actually, forget what I said about a "voter ceiling". My problem is more with how you put Gordon's floor so high despite him being so weak overall.
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Ranulf: '''We run up the mountain as quickly as possible and smash the enemy commander!' Right?''
Ike: ''Right... How did you--''

Well Resi 4 is certainly kicking ass in the GOTY polls.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Deus Ex, Perfect Dark, FFTA

For those who may be interested in the morning, here's how today's poll looked five minutes into it:

Call of Duty 2 4.41% 10
F.E.A.R. 4.85% 11
God of War 12.78% 29
GTA: Liberty City Stories 3.96% 9
Legend of Zelda: The Minish Cap 6.17% 14
Mario Kart DS 12.78% 29
Ninja Gaiden Black 3.52% 8
Resident Evil 4 46.7% 106
Star Wars: Battlefront II 4.85% 11
TOTAL VOTES 227




By the way, a quick skim through all the polls held so far this year showed that the Gamecube, Playstation 2, and DS brought in the highest vote totals (in that order). Right now, looking at their respective reps (ten minutes into it):

God of War 10.38% 44
Mario Kart DS 12.74% 54
Resident Evil 4 48.11% 204

Just a thought.
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? A dying quadriplegic's final wish was to see him make the Character Battle...maybe.

I'm totally faster than HaRRicH.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Deus Ex, Perfect Dark, FFTA

I'm totally less likely to point out the obvious than Ulti.
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? A dying quadriplegic's final wish was to see him make the Character Battle...maybe.

Well they were just arbitrary numbers that happened to match up, ya know. Like I said, it's probably more like the 70% on BL for 30% of the voters and 12% on BL for 70% of the voters. But the how and the why don't really matter. What matters is that Gordon's "true" X-Stat is much lower because of this skewing, and I'd probably peg him between 16% and 17%. And that's why.
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Raiden is still [20] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=25457391

I'm goin' to bed, but, as a good-night thought, I'll say this: while RE4 is still ultimately whipping the asses of every game today, the DS should no longer be hardly acknowledged as a GameFAQs force like some people (a.k.a. myself and probably some others) have.
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? A dying quadriplegic's final wish was to see him make the Character Battle...maybe.

My problem with the Gordon Freeman theory is that Gordon is just not that well liked. Gordon is lucky if he has 250 hard core voters, much less 25000.

There isn't really anything that unusual about Gordon's numbers, except for his match against Tina. It makes sense that he would have increased after Half Life 2.
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SC2k5 and SpC2k5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6.

Also, Gordon did his worst in the year with the lowest votals...
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SC2k5 and SpC2k5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6.

will gordon do better when the usual half-life 2 expansions and all other add ons?
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Nominate CATS,Jay Solano,Weedle and Ifnkovhgroghprm for sc2k6

I think he will because of HL2 on the Xbox...I don't know about the rest of it.
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? A dying quadriplegic's final wish was to see him make the Character Battle...maybe.

haven't been posting in this topic for a while like i should be. =P ...i just thought i would chime in here since Slowflake just acquired and started the Board 8 Rally Tourney.

out of the 128 characters nominated for us to rally behind, these are the only ones that i personally feel have a shot at being any better than fodder (aka - able to beat Vyse or Lloyd):

Princess Peach - she's easily somewhere around the level of Yoshi, DK, and Luigi. i've said that she's one of the snubs with the highest contest potential ever since Tifa and Vincent made it in last year. plus, she's finally got her own game coming out where Peach is the main featured character. that can only improve her potential.

Toad - with the Mario series behind him, Toad could easily win a match or two, but i don't see him doing quite as well as Peach because he doesn't draw much support from SSBM. well above the fodder line, though.

Mewtwo - he's regarded as a much cooler and well-liked Pokemon than Pikachu. AND he has SSBM behind him. i pretty much guarantee that he would do better than Pikachu.

Captain Falcon - he's got F-Zero, but more importantly, he has SSBM. it would be interesting to see just how well he does, but i figure that SSBM alone has to put him above the fodder line.

Falco - again, the SSBM thing. that exposure alone is worth quite a bit. plus StarFox is still a respected series, if not a beloved series of Nintendo. and Falco has more of an identity than Captain Falcon. i'm not sure who i would pick between Falco and Captain Falcon.

Diddy Kong - he doesn't have SSBM, but he does have some appearances outside of the DK world to help him out. he wouldn't do as well as DK the choke artist, but he would be better than fodder.

Seifer - *sigh* as much as i hate FF8 and Squall, i do have to admit that Squall is a strong force in the contests.and FF8 is still pretty well liked on this site. and, from what i've seen, Seifer appears to be the second most popular character from his game. Laguna and Rinoa (ugh.) might be on about the same level as Lloyd and Vyse, but Seifer is the only one i would put clearly ahead of the fodder.


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Jman_gamerX8 - i had no idea who this guy was until he whomped us all in the Guru Contest.

Bahamut - it's a shame that i'm practically the only one who nominated him for the Rally Tourney. he could whomp half the characters in that contest. i really hope he doesn't lose immediately. i have been Bahamut since day one. he's got great pics, he's got series-wide recognition, he's one of the most powerful summons in every FF game, he's got a strong identity (for a summon), and he's a dragon. he could easily win a match or two.

Yuffie, Cid Highwind, Barret, Red XIII, Reno, Rufus Shinra - it's hard to say where exactly the minor characters from the most popular game on the site would perform in a contest. but simply being in FF7 realistically could put almost any character in this game over Vyse.

Shadow, Locke, Edgar, Sabin, Celes - my confidence in FF6 characters has diminished since the poundings both Terra and Cecil took last year ( i lost faith in Kain and the rest of FF4 completely.) but i still believe that these five still have a shot of outperforming her, with Shadow having the best shot with higher casual appeal than the others.

Mog - the moogle, however, is in a class of his own. he represents not only FF6, but he can be identified with any and all FF games. that is a huge fanbase with a lot of exposure. he's not gonna be near-elite, but i'd bet that he would be around the level of Alucard and Tails.

Prince of Persia - his recent games have sold quite well and are reasonably popular here on Gamefaqs. and he does have the old school appeal going for him. plus, he does have some good pics. so, i do think he would be above the fodder level, but not by much.

Akuma - it seems like the SFII characters after Ryu have all performed on roughly the same level, which is above the fodder line. i'd like to think that Akuma would follow suit, and possibly even out-perform Bison.

Sub-Zero - he's a blue version of Scorpion who shoots ice. if you think he will perform any better or worse than Scorpion, then you have taken too many crazy pills. still quite a bit above fodder, though.

Nightmare - Soul Calibur is no joke on this site. and of all the SC characters, Nightmare stands out above the rest. his sword is huge! >_> i'm guessing that he would beat any other fighting character except Ryu. so basically, he would be at the level of Scorpion and the other SFII characters.

Yoshimitsu - after Jin's respectable performance, it appears that Tekken does have a fanbase here. that combined with his Soul Calibur prescence gives Yoshimitsu two fanbases to draw from. that gives him enough potential to be above that fodder line.

Mai Shiranui, Lulu, Sheena - TJF. if Tina Armstrong can beat Gordon Freeman with 60% of the vote, then so can these 3 buxom beauties. of course, the only way these 3 would beat any of the fodder is with good pics and lotsa cleavage.

as far as other notable characters go -

Phoenix Wright is totally fodder. i love the guy and his game, but did you see how poorly his game did in the DS GOTY poll? yikes.

Serge is a waste of space. he has no personality, no character and looks like a dork. i doubt he would even beat Zidane.

the MGS villains are out of control. if Ocelot couldn't even beat Pac-Man, none of these less recognizable villains are gonna amount to anything either.

and what makes anyone think that the Tales of Symphonia cast will do any better than Lloyd? Sheena might, but only because of her delicious *assets*.

Pious Augustus and Soma Cruz will just make the majority of the voters say "who?"

Meta-Knight may have Kirby behind him, but no SSBM. therefore, he will also fail.

opinions? thoughts? insults?

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Jman_gamerX8 - i had no idea who this guy was until he whomped us all in the Guru Contest.

I agree with most of it, although I disagree with people saying "who" when it comes to Soma Cruz. His games have gotten quite a bit of exposure within the past year or two. His DS game was hyped like crazy since E3, so anybody with a DS should be able to recognize his face. Recent games plus the Castlevania fanbase should keep him slightly above the fodder line. Slightly....
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Why wouldn't the XG characters have a shot at being above the fodder line? Both Citan and Fei have actual character, and Xenogears managed to preform respectably in both games contests (Beat Pokemon GSC convincingly, before losing to FF7. Probably stronger than it looks in the X-stats, being a PSX Square RPG going against FF7, and all in the spring contest. Finished in 32nd in the top 10 contest, ahead of FF9). I don't think either would dominate, but I'd pick both over someone like Cats without giving it a second thought.
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Chief of Patrol in Sir Chris' police force
www.rpgdl.com

Sub-Zero would outdo Scorpion.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1788


Not to mention the cries that Sub-Zero should have been in Scorpion's place since 2k2.
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? A dying quadriplegic's final wish was to see him make the Character Battle...maybe.

Serge is a waste of space. he has no personality, no character and looks like a dork. i doubt he would even beat Zidane.

nor does Crono and he's strong as hell. of all the characters in the tournament, I want to see Serge. second place is Citan or Fei.

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xyzzy

Crono, I think, gets by on his character design and the popularity of his game. Serge doesn't have nearly as popular a game, and his character design is far less appealing than Crono's to most people (god knows why. I'm not a Toriyama fan, myself.) I don't think he'd be fodder, but I think he'd dissapoint most people if he got in.
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Chief of Patrol in Sir Chris' police force
www.rpgdl.com