People not arguing the stats is perfectly fine by me.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Currently Playing: Dragon Warrior, Deus Ex

Well, this topic in particular, since we've beaten every possible horse to death. Especially during the contest... I mean, Kefka/Vercetti took twice as many topics as the entirety of the 2003 contest. Overkill much? One can only take so much discussion about the Nintendo and Sonic crews boosting minus Link and Samus who did so last year instead, the beneficiaries of DMC3/HL2/MGS3/Halo 2 boosting as well, Crono/Vincent rSFF/ACF/both... the only potential topic of discussion left that's not quite been overkilled yet is Ryu and Alucard being exposed as being not quite as strong as previously thought.
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Q: Why was Chris Benoit kicked out of the gas station?
A: Because he was carrying matches.

...But Ryu didn't actually end up being "exposed," per se. He's not THAT much weaker than he was in previous years.
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"My thoughts, they kept floating up, and then slipping through my fingers. Slipping away before I could pin them down with words." - Tidus

It's lucky most of us foresaw something was wrong with Mario/Cloud, and WDF. But when you look at it seriously, you had no choice but to draw that conclusion.

...NOBODY ever considered Sephiroth overperforming against Link until after SC2K3. Everyone thought that if anything went wrong, it was Mario/Link (and maybe Mario/Cloud to an extent). The idea of Mario/Link SFF ended up working well enough for that contest, too.

the only potential topic of discussion left that's not quite been overkilled yet is Ryu and Alucard being exposed as being not quite as strong as previously thought.

Well, Ken dropped between SC2K3 and SC2K3...that could've been a warning sign that Ryu would fall in popularity eventually.

As for Alucard, I do believe Sora was affected a bunch by the picture he was in. Ugh, we just can't get a confident ranking on Alucard, can we? What about the idea that Alucard underperformed against Sephiroth earlier? Alucard being at 30% on BL in 2K3 seems very wrong, since he wasn't even close to that in 2K2 and 2K5. SC2K4 is a big question mark for Alucard, but I'm betting Ganondorf got most of his growth since 2K3 due to The Boost®. So, I'm going to stick with Alucard/Sephiroth being accurate. Yeah, I know I was late in saying that, but I thought about all this shortly after Magus/Knuckles.

So, anyway, I think it's reasonable to say that Sora underperformed against Snake, and that Alucard is roughly equal to his 2K3 value (maybe slightly under), while Sora benefitted slightly from KH:CoM.

On another note, it seems Kirby increased FOUR years in a row. I don't think anybody else has achieved such a feat. Could he get a significant increase again by next year?

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

On another note, it seems Kirby increased FOUR years in a row. I don't think anybody else has achieved such a feat.

Gordon Freeman. <_<

On a side note, I FINALLY got to playing Kirby Superstar. No wonder he's so popular. The only Kirby game I really played was the original Kirby's Dreamland, and that game is pretty much on Kirby Superstar minus the second level...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Well, there was that Samus/Sam Fisher fluke which for whatever reason put GF on par with Eggplant CATS.

and that Alucard is roughly equal to his 2K3 value (maybe slightly under)

I'd say slightly under. Say what you will, but 55% on GoW Kratos isn't very reassuring.

NOBODY ever considered Sephiroth overperforming against Link until after SC2K3.

The factual consideration itself, true, but the fact is, no one gave Megaman or Sonic or Samus the credit their 2002 ranking gave them.

The idea of Mario/Link SFF ended up working well enough for that contest, too.

It could have... if Mario didn't perform at the same darned level for the next two years. I could go on a long argumentation about this, but I don't have the time for that.
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Q: Why was Chris Benoit kicked out of the gas station?
A: Because he was carrying matches.

Or it's just possible that Link grew in strength because of that Wind Waker thing.
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"My thoughts, they kept floating up, and then slipping through my fingers. Slipping away before I could pin them down with words." - Tidus

Honestly, we'll never know. Link's division was so unbelievably weak we only have two real matches to base him off of. But still, Link boosting because of Wind Waker... I dunno, but there's just something that makes my eyes twitch in there.
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Q: Why was Chris Benoit kicked out of the gas station?
A: Because he was carrying matches.

Yeah, it's not like it was a popular game or anything.
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"My thoughts, they kept floating up, and then slipping through my fingers. Slipping away before I could pin them down with words." - Tidus

I'm not going to look or anything, but I doubt this topic is any more dead than last year at this point; it is november after all, there just isn't much contest stuff to talk about. Boardwise, though, I think we're the same as last year, and still nowhere close to the 2k3 offseason in terms of traffic.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb

hmm.. maybe. we were much more active after the Villain Contest, though.

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xyzzy

Ack...for the last time, I don't believe in Mario/Link SFF. I was just saying that it worked out in SC2K3 as a coincidence.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Well to be fair it went from Villains contest, to about a month off to Summer Contest noms.

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Explicit Content, Thrusting Harder Than Ever
I was busy watching porn with my parents so I wouldn't know. - snalien

Yeah, but we were also anticipating another contest shortly...plus, Sephiroth gave us plenty to talk about.
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? Transience was nice enough to point out 2k5 was too late for him.

hmm, maybe I have a bad memory then. still though, we had the absolutely mess that is the Devil division, Kirby, Mario/Samus and who knows what else..

personally, I think it's because a lot of our questions were answered. (is Magus overrated? check. Frog? check. A > B > C > A with Samus/Crono/Mario? I'd say it's incorrect, but I suppose there's a possibility that Samus could outperform Crono. I'm sure the list goes on.) throw in that no one's trusting the x-stats like they used to and there's just not much to discuss.

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xyzzy

er, Samus could outperform Mario, my bad.
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xyzzy

hmm, maybe I have a bad memory then. still though, we had the absolutely mess that is the Devil division

Personally I would rank everyone down to Squall's numbers and just expect Vincent to be stronger next contest.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush

and Squall won't be after KH2? or Dante after his new game? (that probably won't be out in time) that entire division is ugly and I hope no one trusts the x-stats there whatsoever.
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xyzzy

Squall's been behind potential SFF every year up until this one, so I'd be wary of doing that.

Excepting 2k2 of course, which has no bearing.

It's odd how we ended up with nearly as big of a mess from this contest as we did from the SFF-riddled 2004 bracket.
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"My thoughts, they kept floating up, and then slipping through my fingers. Slipping away before I could pin them down with words." - Tidus

Except alot of people are accepting the messes we have and it's controversial if they're even messes or not (Devil Division, Solid/Sora, MC's four-pack, and, of course, Mario/Samus for examples).
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? Transience was nice enough to point out 2k5 was too late for him.

And that's exactly what makes it a bigger mess. We knew where the messes were in 2004. In 2005...Who knows for sure?
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"My thoughts, they kept floating up, and then slipping through my fingers. Slipping away before I could pin them down with words." - Tidus

Well, I've got my suspicions, and I'll let others stick with theirs.


Speaking of all these messes, I finally got my own adjusted stats done the other day...and I'll post them for your viewing pleasure. I want people to know that I did fudge afew spots and stretched for afew others, but I also want people to know that I treated the character-standings like the x-stats should be treated: estimated and with a grain of salt. I disagree with my own stats at points so don't expect me to justify everything, but I believe every character I adjusted is now a good deal closer to where they should be than where the unadjusted stats have them, and that's what's important:

1) Link 50.00%
2) Cloud 47.56%
3) Sephiroth 45.06%
4) Mario 39.59%
5) Crono 36.54%
6) Mega Man 35.55%
7) Samus 35.53%
8) Sonic 35.29%
9) Solid Snake 33.88%
10) Bowser 33.48%
11) Zelda 30.89%
12) Kirby 30.85%
13) Tifa Lockheart 30.77%
14) Zero 29.41%
15) Vincent Valentine 29.33%
16) Ganondorf 29.02%
17) Squall 28.98%
18) Luigi 28.71%
19) Ryu 27.47%
20) Dante 26.98%
21) Yoshi 26.81%
22) Knuckles 26.78%
23) Auron 26.64%
24) Magus 26.31%
25) Tidus 26.13%
26) Leon Kennedy 25.20%
27) Vivi 24.99%
28) Master Chief 24.38%
29) Rikku 24.32%
30) Donkey Kong 23.99%
31) Sora 23.54%
32) Chun-Li 22.83%
33) Yuna 22.52%
34) Diablo 22.20%
35) Ryu Hayabusa 21.76%
36) Tommy Vercetti 21.30%
37) Frog 21.28%
38) Alucard 21.02%
39) Gordon Freeman 20.88%
40) Kefka 20.82%
41) Riku 20.57%
42) KOS-MOS 19.52%
43) Kratos Aurion 19.20%
44) Ness 19.02%
45) Kratos 18.70%
46) Zidane 17.74%
47) Carl Johnson 17.07%
48) Conker 17.05%
49) Sam Fisher 16.91%
50) Jin Kazama 16.83%
51) Joanna Dark 15.84%
52) Lloyd Irving 15.73%
53) Terra 15.38%
54) Cecil 15.30%
55) CATS 15.20%
56) Big Boss 15.20%
57) Geno 14.58%
58) Pac-Man 14.57%
59) King of all Cosmos 14.35%
60) Revolver Ocelot 14.20%
61) Wesker 14.26%
62) Laharl 14.12%
63) Agent 47 13.78%
64) Vyse 13.50%
65) Kerrigan 12.32%
66) Manny Calavera 10.78%
67) Yuri Hyuga 9.01%
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? Transience was nice enough to point out 2k5 was too late for him.

The only thing that particularly stands out is Samus being in a dead heat with Sonic after beating him to a pulp the year before. How did you come up with that conclusion, statistically?

after not looking at stats for a good month or two, I forgot just how low Sora is. dayum.
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xyzzy

It was as high as I was willing to put Samus before I started getting skeptical. I trust Mario SFF'd Samus, but I question alot just how much. I would still pprroobbaabbllyy take Samus over Crono and I would take Samus over Mega Man, but it's hard to assume a character so strong was SFF'd so much.

Not that it's impossible, of course. Besides, again, it got the point done of making Samus and her division alot closer to looking normal.
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? Transience was nice enough to point out 2k5 was too late for him.

10) Bowser 33.48%
16) Ganondorf 29.02%

obviously this is Samus's doing, but it caught my eye. this seems to be our most debated match (in that it comes up time and time again), and you've got Bowser by more than 4%. I'm sticking with Ganon until proven wrong.
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xyzzy

I still say Samus is horribly underranked in which case I would predict a 50/50 match.

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Explicit Content, Thrusting Harder Than Ever
I was busy watching porn with my parents so I wouldn't know. - snalien

I would take Ganon in a close one, heh.
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? Transience was nice enough to point out 2k5 was too late for him.

Yeah, again, I'd probably take Samus over Crono, but I'm just so skeptical about giving her that much of a boost due to SFF. Kinda sad of me since I'd still take Ganon over Bowser, but I'd still be skeptical about that match too, so it sorta evens out.
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? Transience was nice enough to point out 2k5 was too late for him.

if Samus didn't kill Sonic like she did, I'd take Crono over her. I can't see Crono beating Sonic as badly as she did. (lol x-stats, I know.) I agree that there's no way Samus was SFF'd that hard by Mario - I think Mario was simply stronger this year than she was. the question is by how much?
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xyzzy

EC is correct. Samus' games aren't that popular, as evidenced by the game contest and the... latest... one... (how do we abbreviate it, 10AC?) Meaning that for Samus to be stronger than her games, she has to draw power from somewhere else. Namely, dun dun DUN, SSB. Considering what Mario did to her, it's almost a miracle Samus beat Ganondorf by as much as she did - heck, unadjusted Samus comes dangerously close to losing to adjusted Ganondorf. Okay, now I'm just ranting.

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 11/22/2005 3:32:04 PM | #159
Yeah, it's not like it was a popular game or anything.

It was popular - just, not that well received. I'm the biggest Wind Waker mark on this board, period, and I'm not going to put on blinders about that. Still, Dante somehow boosted from DMC2, and despite professional reviewers taking turns at utterly destroying Shadow the Hedgehog, I'm still expecting the emo one to break the magical 30% on BL barrier.

Speaking of which, just for kicks, just how hardcore is Shadow getting rocked?

Gamespy: 40%
Gamespot: 48% (47% for PS2)
IGN: 49% (47% for PS2)
CCC: 50%
Eurogamer: 50%
TeamXBOX: 53%
Gamer's Hell: 67%
Nintendo Power: 80%
GameTrailers: 83% (doesn't count for GameRankings)

So yeah, there were a few people on this board who were saying IGN was a heap of crap and they were waiting for Gamespot... I certainly want to see their faces now.

So, where does Shadow go from there contest-wise? Discuss.
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Q: Why was Chris Benoit kicked out of the gas station?
A: Because he was carrying matches.

Okay, as for the Samus issue, looking at the match against Frog, it gives Frog a decent advantage over SpC2K5 Liquid. Either Samus actually underperformed against Frog, or Sephy overkilled Liquid a bit. As for Ganondorf, the whole SSB bit prevents us from drawing real conclusions, though the X-sts called this one perfectly.
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Q: Why was Chris Benoit kicked out of the gas station?
A: Because he was carrying matches.

I gave Ganondorf a .75% boost against Samus, I think; I assumed he barely suffered a touch of SFF.

As for Shadow, I wanna ask this: in a rematch against Tidus, who would win?
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? Transience was nice enough to point out 2k5 was too late for him.

if Samus didn't kill Sonic like she did, I'd take Crono over her. I can't see Crono beating Sonic as badly as she did. (lol x-stats, I know.)

Well, I don't think Samus would've beaten Sonic as badly in 2005 either. The Blue Blur was noticeably stronger than in 2004. That seems pretty evident.
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"My thoughts, they kept floating up, and then slipping through my fingers. Slipping away before I could pin them down with words." - Tidus

my opinion is that, for a smaller character, any new game is good unless it's an absolute failure. (I don't consider STH to be one of those - heck, there are people who like it.) for a hugely popular character like Link, though, I could see Link's design in WW to be a negative. everyone already knows who he is and a good number of people were turned off by the new design.

as for Shadow, I think I'd take him over Knuckles, and I wouldn't have last year.
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xyzzy

in a rematch against Tidus, who would win?

Tidus.

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You are a fading dream, but one that has been touched by reality.
Run, dream. Run on into the daylight. And walk into reality.

Indeed. The matches against Diablo and Megaman (although the Blue Bomber DID seem handicapped a bit this year, as did Zero, vs. Knuckles' very noticeable boost) don't lie. Though I agree with Leonhart, a Sonic/Samus rematch being closer would've been mostly Sonic.
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Q: Why was Chris Benoit kicked out of the gas station?
A: Because he was carrying matches.

Yeah, so many characters went up and down that it was hard for me to worry alot about past performances. I tried to keep them in mind, but I couldn't always, much like any year's stats.
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? Transience was nice enough to point out 2k5 was too late for him.

I think I'd take Shadow over Tidus as well. I have no faith in Tidus after both MM and Kirby.
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xyzzy

No confidence in him after Mega Man? Wasn't that right after he beat Shadow?
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"My thoughts, they kept floating up, and then slipping through my fingers. Slipping away before I could pin them down with words." - Tidus

I dunno. If Sonic and Knuckles boosted, pre-ShtH Shadow probably did too, enough to jump past Tidus. But in my set of stats, Tidus looks a bit better than last year (and is, coincidentally, STILL hot on Magus' trail), but then Shadow can really go anywhere with a game like that (do we call that a flop by definition or not?)... ARGH, my head asplode.
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Q: Why was Chris Benoit kicked out of the gas station?
A: Because he was carrying matches.

I'd take Shadow over Tidus, though I dunno by how much. Between the multi-console release of his own game and both Sonic and Knuckles gaining this year (as well as Dr. Robotnik winning two matches, one of which was over FFX's Sin), it'd be hard to go against him when their match about a year ago was so close.
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? Transience was nice enough to point out 2k5 was too late for him.

I don't have much faith in Tidus, but I have much less faith in Shadow -- and a 5/10 from gaming publications is a pretty bad game. Devil May Cry 2, for all the crap that it gets, averaged 72% on GameRankings. Shadow the Hedgehog is 54.6%, 48.3%, and 46.2% for GC, XBox, and PS2, respectively. That's far too pathetic for me to think he's going to get a boost, and I think it's quite possible that he'll be hurt by it. XenoSaga II, which may have accounted for some of KOS-MOS' large drop, averages 73%.
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pi

after he beat Shadow, yeah, but by how much? I think STH should be worth at least 1%, not to mention FF10 being two years older.
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xyzzy

I'd consider Sonic 2k5 to be the strongest incarnation of Sonic ever. I mean, people were taking him over Mega Man, but I doubt very many were expecting a fully powered Mega Man. For Sonic to go toe-to-toe with him, and nearly pull off the upset...again, it bears mention that Sonic was the Noble Nine member that impressed me the most this year. Not Link, not Mario, not Snake. I still have trouble believing that he was able to do it. The only thing I question is--how were Sonic (and Knuckles) able to increase so much? Why did it happen? Nintendo Boost? <_<

That being said, Samus still killed him last year FAR enough to even think about putting the two on even ground this year.

As for Shadow, I expect his game to give him a hefty boost, actually. For reference, I point to the two current-gen Prince of Persia games, SoT and WW. SoT was lauded by critics, but ultimately sold very poorly. WW was received much worse by reviewers, but the 'hardcore' atmosphere of wanton slaughter, a more 'badass' design, and roaring Godsmack, it sold much better. I have no doubt Shadow's game will attract many sheep to the flock, even if it is an inferior product.

...I really wouldn't use Robotnik to support your argument. He's still ridiculously weak, and he beat a fin and a hand whilst getting destroyed by a nose.
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"My thoughts, they kept floating up, and then slipping through my fingers. Slipping away before I could pin them down with words." - Tidus

...Speaking of this supposed Sonic Team boost, does this mean that Robotnik MIGHT have lost to Sin otherwise?

I still have difficulty believing the match was as close as it ended up being.
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"My thoughts, they kept floating up, and then slipping through my fingers. Slipping away before I could pin them down with words." - Tidus

He doesn't hurt the case though, seeing as how he still beat an FFX villain. No matter the case, there's still compelling arguments for both of them.
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Serious Reminder: Nominate Jay Solano in 2k6.
Why? Transience was nice enough to point out 2k5 was too late for him.